Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[buwaytress]

Wow. USA only won 2-0 but it was actually murder on the pitch last night. I knew the Dutch had nowhere the depth of the Americans, but still they're reigning European champions and they were just too far behind in quality.

On the other hand, our friendly pick won. India actually finished at HT 2-0... so I thought I'd lost that bet. Couldn't find any commentary but Tajiks found a way to score FOUR in second half, so we got ourselves a nice tidy win.

I'll take a parlay on the favourites today in AFCON along with a Syria win over DPRK (come on Syria, you haven't won in such a long time!).

Game 1: Mali vs Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast WIN@2.36. BCR odds: 2.34
Game 2: Ghana vs Tunisia. Ghana WIN @2.45. BCR odds: 2.41
Game 3: Syria vs DPRK. Syria WIN@2.15. BCR odds: n/a so assume 2.15
100 units parlay at Betcoin @12.4313. BCR parlay: 12.1247

Odds advantage: 2.53%
Units advantage: 30.66

Running advantage after 15 bets: +427.21 (+30.66)
All-time cumulative: +12,633.45
Running units after 14 bets (3W|11L): +304.87 (+312 units)

[buwaytress]

One game too far. Ghana ended the half looking like the shitty side but they upped the tempo and rained down hell on Tunisia in the 2nd half but conceded because of their eagerness. Nicked the own goal in injury time but condemned us anyway to a loss.

What can we do, parlays are cruel.

Champions League qualifications happening today, real exciting. Bound to be a few upsets, and my pick is for the Romanians to spring an upset over the Kazakh champs. Parlay that with Celtic to beat Sarajevo and we're on our way.

Game 1: FK Sarajevo-Celtic. Celtic WIN @1.63. BCR odds: 1.6
Game 2: FC Astana-FC Cfr 1907 Cluj. Cluj WIN @4.82. BCR odds: 4.3
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.8566. BCR parlay: 6.88

Odds advantage: 14.19%
Units advantage: 97.66

Lets also take another upset from Armenia and pair it with a favourite:
Game 1: Suduva Marijampole-FK Crvena Zvezda. Zvezda WIN @1.46. BCR odds: 1.44
Game 2: FC Ararat-Armenia vs AIK. Ararat WIN @5.86. BCR odds: 5.12
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.5556. BCR parlay: 7.3728

Odds advantage: 16.04%
Units advantage: 118.28

Running advantage after 17 bets: +524.87 (+215.94)
All-time cumulative: +12,849.39
Running units after 15 bets (3W|12L): +204.87 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

I have to hate myself sometimes!

Got the first parlay totally wrong, backed the wrong upset. And the second parlay my Armenian underdog won (in all honesty courtesy a silly red card from the opponent made it easier) but Suduva held on for the draw amazingly.

I feel like taking a number of bets today, so I'll update this post if I see some good value but we'll kick off with a simple parlay in the AFCON. Can South Africa create another upset? They no longer have the physical advantage but this is the wobbly Nigeria who almost lost to Cameroon AND also lost to S Africa earlier in the group stage exactly a month ago:

Game 1: Senegal-Benin. Senegal WIN @1.44. BCR odds: 1.42
Game 2: Nigeria vs South Africa. S Africa WIN @4.53. BCR odds: 4.3
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.5232. BCR parlay: 6.106

Odds advantage: 6.83%
Units advantage: 41.72

Syria has another friendly, but I'm shocked Tajikistan is rated so lowly, especially when they put 4 past India. I'll back them again to win this one. 100 units at Betcoin for Tajikistan to WIN vs Syria @7.54. Other bookie odds: 6.88.

Odds advantage: 8.93%
Units advantage: 66

Running advantage after 19 bets: +632.59 (+107.72)
All-time cumulative: +12,957.11
Running units after 17 bets (3W|14L): +4.87 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Nigeria broke me heart, but Senegal had such a tough time getting over the line, even Mane was frustrated towards the end. Good to see my boy in the Semis now though, and I suppose Nigeria always deserved a place after the improvements since the opening matches.

But boy did Tajikistan play, Syria's having a really poor run of form since WC qualifiers, and after them winning against DPRK, they'll feel really down about this. But glad we got on the right end of that upset!

We're doing well with upsets, and Europa League is here. I'm going to bet on the second-placed Irish Prem team to beat a 5th placed Norwegian Prem team.

100 units on Shamrock Rovers to WIN vs SK BRann @6.46. Betcoin odds: 6.03

Odds advantage: 8.93%
Units advantage: 43

Running advantage after 20 bets: +675.59 (+43)
All-time cumulative: +13,000.11
Running units after 19 bets (4W|15L): +558.87 (+554 units)

[buwaytress]

Ouchie. Them Irish did get their luck, securing a 2-2 away draw is really special, but it wasn't enough to win us the bet.

It's been a long time since we took on Tennis but I see a good parlay in the shape of Serena Williams and Fedex, who shockingly (heh) is the underdog to Nadal. Serena's game is tomorrow though, so this won't settle hopefully by then!

But because we're an ambitious lot, we'll do an odd parlay for a friendly win for League One Coventry against midtable finishers League Two's Northampton.

Game 1: Northampton Town-Coventry City. Coventry WIN @2.15. BCR odds: 2.11
Game 2: Nadal vs Federer. Fedex WIN @2.18. BCR odds: 2.23
Game 3: Williams vs Halep. Williams WIN @1.52. BCR odds: 1.50
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.1242. BCR parlay: 7.0579

Odds advantage: 0.94%
Units advantage: 6.63

Running advantage after 21 bets: +682.22 (+6.63)
All-time cumulative: +13,006.74
Running units after 20 bets (4W|16L): +458.87 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Fedex didn't let me down but Coventry sure did, then again this is what you get with lower league friendlies! A bet elsewhere won me some joy, 2/1 for the Swiss is always a taker against anyone and he's got to be the one for the title.

I'll take more friendlies, Young Boys to beat a toothless Palace at home and India to do the same against DPRK.

Game 1: Young Boys-Crystal Palace. Young Boys WIN @1.98. BCR odds: 1.99
Game 2: India-DPRK. India WIN @2.24. BCR odds: 2.20
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.4748. BCR parlay: 4.378

Odds advantage: 2.21%
Units advantage: 9.68

Running advantage after 22 bets: +692.11 (+9.68)
All-time cumulative: +13,016.42
Running units after 21 bets (4W|17L): +358.87 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Damn DPRK. You know, I always bet against South Asia teams when it comes to football, it's just something in my mind that tells me they're too much of a cricket population to really be good at competitive football, plus I've seen how they play. And then when DPRK lost big time to Syria (by the exact same 5-2 scoreline actually), I thought this must be it for them. Friendlies, what can you say?

Senegal are my pick for today, and Algeria, although it will be very tight for both teams and I fear a draw is on the cards, but let's hope all the teams want to be as fresh as possible for the final.

Game 1: Senegal vs Tunisia. Senegal WIN @2.03. BCR odds: 2.0
Game 2: Algeria vs Nigeria. Algeria WIN @2.55. BCR odds: 2.53
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.1765. BCR parlay: 5.06

Odds advantage: 2.31%
Units advantage: 11.65

Running advantage after 23 bets: +703.76 (+11.65)
All-time cumulative: +13,028.07
Running units after 22 bets (4W|18L): +258.87 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Some days you just got to take it on the chin. Our parlays won their games, but Senegal could only do it in extra time, so we fold. Bitcoinrush does seem to give better odds for ET conclusions so I should consider that for future but let's see.

Today, we back Tajikistan again in their match against DPRK (who will be on a high after the India win). Parlay it with the Norwegian U19s to beat Irish opposition, and how about a victory in Moscow in the Russian league?

Game 1: FC Lokomotiv Moscow-FC Rubin Kazan. Lokomotiv WIN @1.50. BCR odds: 1.44
Game 2: Norway-Republic of Ireland. Norway WIN @2.29. BCR odds: 2.28.
Game 3: DPRK-Tajikistan. Tajikistan WIN @1.90. BCR odds: 1.88
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.5265. BCR parlay: 6.1724

Odds advantage: 5.74%
Units advantage: 35.41

Running advantage after 24 bets: +739.17 (+35.41)
All-time cumulative: +13,063.48
Running units after 23 bets (4W|19L): +158.87 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Wow bad parlay. Results like this really make me want to reassess my perceived skill level haha. Now almost back at 0 again after 25 bets. I suppose I should be happy if I'm going for wagering totals too!

I'll put it on one bet for tonight's UEFA Champions League qualifiers. I'll have a look at friendlies too, the ICC and Intercontinental maybe, but will update bets if I do. For now:

100 units at Betcoin on HB Torshavn to WIN against HJK Helsinki @5.06. BCR odds: 4.93

Odds advantage: 2.64%
Units advantage: 13

We like our odds of a Welsh upset, so we're parlay that with the Intercontinental win for the old Italians:
Game 1: Fiorentina-Guadalajara Chivas. Fiorentina WIN @2.14. BCR odds: 2.08
Game 2: KF Feronikeli-THE New Saints. New Saints WIN @3.54. BCR odds: 3.5
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.5756. BCR parlay: 7.28

Odds advantage: 4.06%
Units advantage: 29.44

Total odds advantage: 42.44

Running advantage after 26 bets: +781.61 (+42.44)
All-time cumulative: +13,105.92
Running units after 24 bets (4W|20L): +58.87 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Didn't stay up to watch that Intercontinental game, but went to bet knowing the Welsh boys somehow made it through to the next round, and woke up to that nice result for Fiorentina. A pity our other underdog only managed to draw 2-2... Helsinki still went through on away goals.

We got a lot of good fare tonight though and it's tough to pick a good parlay, but let's pad up an upset in AFCON with a regular City win over West Ham at the ICC. I've also got an eye on a few underdogs in tonight's Champions League, but let's add those later if we decide.

Game 1: Tunisia-Nigeria. Tunisia WIN @3.13. BCR odds: 3.08
Game 2: Manchester City-West Ham United. City WIN @1.43. BCR odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.4759. BCR parlay: 4.3736

Odds advantage: 2.34%
Units advantage: 10.23

New parlay:
Game 1: Arsenal Bayern Munich. Bayern WIN @1.83. BCR odds: 1.82
Game 2: Newcastle United-Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @1.93. BCR odds: 1.89
Game 3: Manchester City-West Ham United. City WIN @1.43. BCR odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.0506. BCR parlay: 4.8845

Odds advantage: 3.4%
Units advantage: 16.61

Total odds advantage: 26.84

Running advantage after 28 bets: +808.45 (+26.84)
All-time cumulative: +13,132.76
Running units after 26 bets (5W|21L): +616.43 (+557.56 units)

[buwaytress]

Ah hell, I knew Arsenal was a good bet against a weakened, much much weakened Bayern side, but went against my knowledge to side with the bookies and paid for it. Still, looks like the English teams are stamping their mark, friendly or not.

A lot of Europa League games tonight and I'll take my time to study but I'd like to place a bet on a huge minnow from Gibraltar, Europa FC. They actually held relative giants -- Legia Warsaw -- to a scoreless draw, of course, home in Poland, no one will expect them to win, but the pressure will be on the Poles so hey why not? This is a sucker bet, guys, so don't see it as a tip!

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Europa FC to WIN vs Legia Warsaw @41.99. Betcoin odds: 32.09

Odds advantage: 30.85%
Units advantage: 990

Running advantage after 29 bets: +1,798.45 (+990)
All-time cumulative: +14,122.76
Running units after 28 bets (5W|23L): +416.43 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Second legs didn't do too well for the underdogs unfortunately, and our pick of course got beaten soundly but hey, 3-0 actually isn't such a bad deal, though a 2.5 handicap for Legia Warsaw would have bagged a nice 3/1 if I recall. How beautiful for hindsight.

Senegal has a chance to make history for themselves tonight, and I'm going to back them to do just that and win in regular time (it's crazy that Algeria are the slight underdogs though, boo). And I've got good hopes for Tajikistan to get the better of North Korea in their little tourney. And why not round that off with a Basel win the Super League?

Game 1: Senegal vs Algeria. Senegal WIN @2.78. BCR odds: 2.8
Game 2: Sion vs Basel. Basel WIN @1.85. BCR odds: 1.80
Game 3: Tajikistan vs DPRK. Tajikistan WIN @2.20. BCR odds: 2.19
100 units parlay at Betcoin @11.3146. BCR parlay: 11.0376

Odds advantage: 2.51%
Units advantage: 27.7

Senegal has now become the underdog and the odds have switched, so I'm doubling down on another parlay, this time with Liverpool to beat Dortmund!
Game 1: Senegal vs Algeria. Senegal WIN @2.93. Betcoin: 2.88
Game 2: Dortmund vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.25. Betcoin: 2.21
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @6.5925. Betcoin parlay: 6.3648

Odds advantage: 3.58%
Units advantage: 22.77

Total odds advantage: 50.47

Running advantage after 31 bets: +1,826.15 (+50.47)
All-time cumulative: +14,173.23
Running units after 29 bets (5W|24L): +316.43 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Wow. Lost on both parlays. Liverpool too, to Dortmund. Don't know if it had a Klopp sentiment all over it but he's of course a professional.

I'll go for a curious parlay, Manchester United look good in form but the bookies are giving them some doubt though so I'll take that. Inter's a good team but United still have all those talents surrounding them.

And new look Real Madrid should smack Bayern around a bit.

Game 1: Manchester United-Inter Milano. Utd WIN @1.92. BCR odds: 1.89
Game 2: Bayern Munich-Real Madrid. Real WIN @2.37. BCR odds: 2.34
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.5504. BCR parlay: 4.4226

Odds advantage: 2.89%
Units advantage: 12.78

Total odds advantage: 50.47

Running advantage after 32 bets: +1,838.93 (+12.78)
All-time cumulative: +14,186.01
Running units after 31 bets (5W|26L): +116.43 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

As Bayern Munich, how do you lose to Arsenal and then go on to defeat Real Madrid? Play in a meaningless friendly, that's all;)

So what do we do? More friendlies!

Game 1: Juventus-Tottenham Hotspur. Juve WIN @2.14. BCR odds: 2.12
Game 2: Liverpool-Sevilla. Liverpool @1.91. BCR odds: 1.88
Game 3: Dinamo Moscow-Rubin Kazan. @1.88. BCR odds: 1.86
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.6843. BCR parlay: 7.4132

Odds advantage: 3.66%
Units advantage: 27.11

Hedging it out, let's put a single on Spurs, who'll have a healthy squad out. 100 units at Bitcoinrush @3.37 on Spurs vs Juve. Betcoin parlay 3.32.

Odds advantage: 1.64%
Units advantage: 5

Total units advantage: 32.11

Running advantage after 33 bets: +1,851.71 (+17.78)
All-time cumulative: +14,203.79
Running units after 32 bets (5W|26L): +16.43 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Can you imagine? All 3 of the picks yesterday lost. Rare even for me;) I should have hedged on all 3 winners, Kane got the 90th min win, and Rubin Kazan also scored the lone goal of the match in injury time. Amazing.

Nothing fancy from me today. U19 women's are almost a complete unknown to me, but at that age, I think physicality wins the game if the gulf is not too big, so I'll pick the Germans and the French. Also, no odds other than on Betcoin so no units advantage counted today oh well.

Game 1: France-Norway. France WIN @1.69
Game 2: Germany-Spain. Germany WIN @2.52
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.2588

Running advantage after 35 bets: +1,851.71 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +14,203.79
Running units after 34 bets (6W|27L): +153.43 (+137 units)

[buwaytress]

Both games were draws, makes me look back to the days we used to bet overs on women's. Bookies were at least right on the fine margins between Germany and Spain.

Champions League and Europa have some games and as usual a lot of underdog bets at this stage but I might not take on any, we'll see later. For now, friendlies.

Game 1: Chelsea vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @2.06 BCR odds: 2.02
Game 2: Real Madrid vs Arsenal. Real WIN @2.06 BCR odds: 2.04
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.2436. BCR parlay: 4.1208

Odds advantage: 2.98%
Units advantage: 12.28

Underdog bets of 100 units each:
Betcoin: FK Shkendija-F91 Dudelange. Dudelange WIN @5.68. BCR odds: 5.23.
Units advantage: 45
BCR: FC Basel vs PSV Eindhoven. Basel WIN @6.42. Betcoin: 5.84
Units advantage:58
BCR: FC Astana vs FC Santa Coloma. Coloma WIN@15.59. Betcoin: 12.24
Units advantage: 335

Total units advantage: 438

Running advantage after 36 bets: +1,863.99 (+450.28)
All-time cumulative: +14,654.07
Running units after 35 bets (6W|29L): +53.43 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Crash and burn, wow. The smallest underdog pick won but that was enough to turn a small profit. Santa Coloma fought for a scoreless draw, should have gone for a handicap would still have won 4/1!

Barca won, Real drew, so that was a shit parlay too;)

We'll do the single pick today and go for a home parlay:
Game 1: 1907 Cluj-Maccabi Tel Aviv. Cluj WIN @2.05. BCR odds: 2.02
Game 2: Maribor-AIK. Maribor WIN @2.36. BCR odds: 2.32
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.838. BCR parlay: 4.6864

Odds advantage: 3.23%
Units advantage: 151.6

Running advantage after 40 bets: +1,879.15 (+15.16)
All-time cumulative: +14,669.23
Running units after 39 bets (7W|32L): +221.43 (+168 units)

[buwaytress]

Yay parlay win. We keep things positive for a few more games. Let's hope we hit something big because I'd like to have gone 45 games with 10% profit to do another double in a season!

Liverpool have not been very good at all pre-season so am glad avoiding them past 2 games... I go for a simple home outright on a fresh Alashkert from Armenia to upstage their Romanian opponents.

100 units at Bitcoinrush for Alashkert to WIN vs Steaua Bucharest @6.27. Betcoin odds: 6.14
Odds advantage: 2.11%
Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 41 bets: +1,892.15 (+13)
All-time cumulative: +14,682.23
Running units after 40 bets (8W|32L): +705.23 (+483.8 units)

[buwaytress]

Turns out there were a few upsets last night, but I'd never have been able to guess really as didn't know the teams well at all.

Now a Real Madrid 2/1 vs Atletico seems good value, as Atleti are weakened but it's effectively a friendly so maybe that's why. Friendlies are so dangerous but let's see if we can't sneak in a long one.

Game 1: Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid. Real WIN @2.15. BCR odds: 2.13
Game 2: Nottingham Forest-Real Sociedad. Sociedad WIN @2.24. BCR odds: 2.2
Game 3: Augsburg-Villarreal. Villareal WIN @1.91. BCR odds: 1.89
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.1985. BCR parlay: 8.8565

Odds advantage: 3.86%
Units advantage: 34.2

Running advantage after 42 bets: +1,926.35 (+34.2)
All-time cumulative: +14,716.43
Running units after 41 bets (8W|33L): +605.23 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Yikes, Real Madrid-Atletico 3-7, and a red card? The score fit the friendly, but the red card was silly. A portent of things to come for the former Giants struggling to retake a crown? Zidane will be sweating.

I don't really have time to do any match research today, and the games available aren't interesting at all either, so I'll go for a single today:

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Inter Milan to WIN vs PSG @4.39. Betcoin odds: 4.11
Odds advantage: 6.76%
Units advantage: 28

Running advantage after 43 bets: +1,954.35 (+28)
All-time cumulative: +14,744.43
Running units after 42 bets (8W|34L): +505.23 (-100 units)