Bitcoin or gold?

[tensports]

I will be take both 70% gold and 30% for bitcoin but if i choose between these two it will be definitely gold

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[BTCevo]

Bitcoin, because gold is something that probably won't have much of a big change in value in the next 10 years. Bitcoin is the first cryptocurency, many say its the prototype for altcoins. But I think bitcoin's future stands and who knows what it will go through. I'd keep bitcoins instead of gold.

How cabn you be so sure? Yes everyone know that bitcoin price will rise for sure but for next 10 years do you think bitcoin will stable and rise more than gold? Gold will guaantee you about its price in the next 10 years and it is stable enough

[RealBitcoin]

2) There is such thing as downward volatility, i dont know the exact term, english is not my native language, but you calculate that just as the standard deviation, except you dont take the absolute value from the mean of both the above and below elements, instead you only count the items that are below the mean = price decreases. This indicator shows you the downward volatility, because the variance as such is an absolute value composed of 2 subsets of data.

I don't quite understand what you mean or how you calculate the value you speak about, but it won't be volatility, by any means. By definition, volatility means price deviation around some value, in both directions, that is, up and down. What you mean is most likely called trend and its range or strength...

3) That was actually a joke, you cant short bitcoin, as in short in the financial sense. You can only buy & sell bitcoin, the "short" operation requires bitcoins to be printed out of thin air, or another collateral set aside by the exchange in form of swaps ( but thats just a workaround pseudo-shorting actually).
I know bitfinex does a good job with margin trading, but still you cannot short more bitcoins then they are on the exchange, whereas in the financial world with fiat money you can just grab a nice infiniate amount 0% interest fast loan and plummet a stock from 200$ to 1 cent in 15 minutes.

Actually, I'm not shorting Bitcoin in the sense of borrowing and selling it and then buying back at a lower price (or as luck would have it). I just started to sell my stash of bitcoins in small portions after the price had got above ~250$ (and buying back when the price rebounds)...

So far so good

1) This is the formula for my "downward volatility" , i dont know exactly the term for it, but if you calculate this, you will get that value, which will then show you the volatility of only the down movements, which should give you a risk understanding of bitcoin price crashes, because price increase doesnt matter, that is beneficial.




2) Well thats good for you, but if you want to short (which is much more simple @ bitfinex) you can short, and its simpler, because cashing out to dollar can be tricky with all the regulations and bank transfers, its just easier to put a short order when you think the price is going down, which i can already tell that it wont happen very soon.

[deisik]

1) This is the formula for my "downward volatility" , i dont know exactly the term for it, but if you calculate this, you will get that value, which will then show you the volatility of only the down movements, which should give you a risk understanding of bitcoin price crashes, because price increase doesnt matter, that is beneficial.

This is a formula for calculating standard deviation. But it makes no sense in the way you use it (that most likely explains the reason why you don't know a name for it), since when calculating an average for x, you use all values...

Your "only downward volatility" by implication includes "upward volatility" as well

[RealBitcoin]

1) This is the formula for my "downward volatility" , i dont know exactly the term for it, but if you calculate this, you will get that value, which will then show you the volatility of only the down movements, which should give you a risk understanding of bitcoin price crashes, because price increase doesnt matter, that is beneficial.

This is a formula for calculating standard deviation. But it makes no sense in the way you use it (that most likely explains the reason why you don't know a name for it), since when calculating an average for x, you use all values...

Your "only downward volatility" by implication includes "upward volatility" as well

No it doesnt. This is the formula which gives you the "relative downward volatility" to be more precise. Yes you need the upward values to calculate them mean, but that is neutral.

So you only look for the downward volatility, relative to the mean, that is a more precise definition.

It does make sense and it has pretty good statistical significance.

[needFREElunch]

I would choose Gold over Bitcoin. The prices of Gold are more likely to rise than those of BitCoins in the next 10 years in my opinion. And of course, BitCoins have been there for only 5 years so I guess it'll be risky to invest too much on them

[deisik]

1) This is the formula for my "downward volatility" , i dont know exactly the term for it, but if you calculate this, you will get that value, which will then show you the volatility of only the down movements, which should give you a risk understanding of bitcoin price crashes, because price increase doesnt matter, that is beneficial.

This is a formula for calculating standard deviation. But it makes no sense in the way you use it (that most likely explains the reason why you don't know a name for it), since when calculating an average for x, you use all values...

Your "only downward volatility" by implication includes "upward volatility" as well

No it doesnt. This is the formula which gives you the "relative downward volatility" to be more precise. Yes you need the upward values to calculate them mean, but that is neutral.

So you only look for the downward volatility, relative to the mean, that is a more precise definition.

It does make sense and it has pretty good statistical significance.

Could you please provide external references showing this notion usefulness (for anything)? I think you will have a hard time explaining why you use an average value to calculate what you call "downward volatility", since it will be meaningless (whether you like it or not) if the price moves all way up while you would still get some pretty high positive value for your "downward volatility" when it evidently should be equal to 0. I guess you should use the mean of all downward price movements to reach where you aim at. It seems more logical and viable in regards to your idea of "downward volatility"...

And I'm curious if you understand what "statistical significance" actually means

[mayflor2]

BitCoin is not as reliable as gold (since it's relatively a new) if I want to invest a lot of money on one. I would rather invest in gold since there's a guarantee that the prices of gold will rise in the upcoming years.

[jenifer0012]

Though bitcoins haven't disappointed much so far, I still believe that when it comes to a huge investment one should consider the old, more reliable means such as gold and property. Also, its quite obvious that the prices of gold will shoot up in the coming years so its safer to invest in them.

[gentlemand]

Though bitcoins haven't disappointed much so far, I still believe that when it comes to a huge investment one should consider the old, more reliable means such as gold and property. Also, its quite obvious that the prices of gold will shoot up in the coming years so its safer to invest in them.

It's a different type of investing though. Or I would hope people had a different approach. It's effectively a bet compared to gold or property so you have to allocate how much you put in accordingly.

[BTCevo]

BitCoin is not as reliable as gold (since it's relatively a new) if I want to invest a lot of money on one. I would rather invest in gold since there's a guarantee that the prices of gold will rise in the upcoming years.

I guess you said gold is more reliable because of the stable price and it is a long term investment but bitcoin still in a labile time because of the volatile price, if one day bitcoin has a stable price Im sure that no one can compare to bitcoin again and bitcoin will be threat to fiat

[bit1]

I prefer water and food before that both.....

[bryant.coleman]

I prefer water and food before that both.....

Well... taking in to account the fact that an average human being requires 0.2 cubic meters of water every day, you might need to store some 14,600 cubic meters of water, if you want a family to survive for 50 years without any supplies from outside. It will require a lot of space. And the case with food is even more trickier. Most of the food items will get damaged after 6 or 7 months. How will you store them?

[deisik]

I prefer water and food before that both.....

Well... taking in to account the fact that an average human being requires 0.2 cubic meters of water every day, you might need to store some 14,600 cubic meters of water, if you want a family to survive for 50 years without any supplies from outside. It will require a lot of space. And the case with food is even more trickier. Most of the food items will get damaged after 6 or 7 months. How will you store them?

Canned meat can be stored a few dozen years. But I guess if that was a question, you should better care for the safety and preservation of your ammo...

[jeffthebaker]

I would invest in both. Bitcoin, in my opinion, is more likely to gain a larger amount of value over the next 10 years, but is also a much riskier investment than gold, for obvious reasons.

[bryant.coleman]

Canned meat can be stored a few dozen years. But I guess if that was a question, you should better care for the safety and preservation of your ammo...

A balanced diet requires vegetables, cereal grains, fruits & nuts, meat / fish, and other edibles such as oil, sugar and salt. One can't survive by eating meat alone. And regarding the storage of fire-arms and ammo, it is not that difficult. If taken proper precautions while storing, Ammo can be stocked up for many decades.

[Mehek]

If you had to convert all your wealth to either Bitcoin or gold and keep it there for 10 years, which would you choose? Keep in mind the fact that Bitcoin has only been around for 5 years, and could be fundamentally different in any number of ways in 10 years.

Both could go equally good or bad. I would take both but invest more in bitcoin as I see lot more potential in bitcoin and it may progress 100x more than it is now. Gold is a great option too, considering the inevitable inflation prices reaching the moon.

[deisik]

Canned meat can be stored a few dozen years. But I guess if that was a question, you should better care for the safety and preservation of your ammo...

A balanced diet requires vegetables, cereal grains, fruits & nuts, meat / fish, and other edibles such as oil, sugar and salt. One can't survive by eating meat alone. And regarding the storage of fire-arms and ammo, it is not that difficult. If taken proper precautions while storing, Ammo can be stocked up for many decades.

If you have a source of complete proteins (canned meat or powdered milk), you can literally feed on grass, leaves and roots to make up for the absence of tasty vegetables, fruits and nuts. Sugar is not required, salt can be kept indefinitely long...

You can't have everything

[Amph]

Canned meat can be stored a few dozen years. But I guess if that was a question, you should better care for the safety and preservation of your ammo...

A balanced diet requires vegetables, cereal grains, fruits & nuts, meat / fish, and other edibles such as oil, sugar and salt. One can't survive by eating meat alone. And regarding the storage of fire-arms and ammo, it is not that difficult. If taken proper precautions while storing, Ammo can be stocked up for many decades.

i disagree with this, we are a bit off topic, but one can survive by just eating eggs, banana and walnuts, those three element provide everything that your body need, mineral, vitamins, omega3, 6 in proportion of 6:1(which is very good compared to many standard diet in the world with ratio 12:1 or more) and macronutrient in the right proportion

don't get fooled by cholesterol level in the eggs, it is a blatant bullshit, one can eat as many as he want, they are also rich in lecithin, which fight cholesterol very well, it is also known that eggs actually lower the level of ldl and rise hdl

also added salt is useless, plenty of foods contain a natural right amount of salt

[deisik]

Canned meat can be stored a few dozen years. But I guess if that was a question, you should better care for the safety and preservation of your ammo...

A balanced diet requires vegetables, cereal grains, fruits & nuts, meat / fish, and other edibles such as oil, sugar and salt. One can't survive by eating meat alone. And regarding the storage of fire-arms and ammo, it is not that difficult. If taken proper precautions while storing, Ammo can be stocked up for many decades.

i disagree with this, we are a bit off topic, but one can survive by just eating eggs, banana and walnuts, those three element provide everything that your body needs, mineral, vitamins, omega3, 6 in proportion of 6:1(which is very compared to many standard diet in the world with ratio 12:1 or more) and macronutrient in the right proportion

don't get fooled by cholesterol level in the eggs, it is a blatant bullshit, one can eat as many as he want, they are also rich in lecithin, which fight cholesterol very well, it is also known that eggs actually lower the level of ldl and rise hdl

I don't think that bananas will be easily available in the Mad Max-style post-apocalyptic world. Gold would most certainly shine in this scenario. Gold and ammo, the former to buy food, the latter to protect it...

So a stack of gold and ammo is enough