It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[mikeywith]

Now at $9150, cracked the 200 day moving average. Break-even for a 90 W/TH S9 is now at 7c. Might see some S9s get turned back on if this keeps up...

We have not cracked the 200 day, price is like a rubber band, going past a certain level means nothing if price can't stay above it, in simple analysis trading terms, we need at least a daily candle to close above the 200ma, which never happened.

I honestly don't see us doing this, and I think we are heading back to 6k (I hope I am wrong), and here is why:



Nothing fancy, only the 200EMA on the daily, in the past, when we broke it we stayed below it for about a year, I don't see us getting out of this mess before Q3-Q4 this year.

As for difficulty, I expect us to keep rising slowly while price goes down, due to mainly S9s and the like leaving the network and getting replaced by more efficient gears from 55w/th and below, when the halving happens. a different story will be told.

[wndsnb]

I'd agree that the 200EMA would represent resistance, but we only broke under it once and that one time we stayed under it for a year. If that happened multiple times, I might agree with you. But 1 event doesn't make a trend.

We have positive pressure on price as the halving approaches, and with most of the plustoken scam coins already sold a big downward pressure on price is now pretty much gone.

I'm definitely no expert though, just feeling optimistic today  .

[philipma1957]

it is funny the two posts above represent what I think  could happen

A price drop to 6000

Price rise to 12000

It has taken me  since 2017 to be in a position that a crash to 6000 would be okay I am setup to handle it.

I rise to 12000 would be okay I am setup to handle it.

a flat line at 8600 would be okay I am setup to handle it.


I am just not sure which one of the three moves works best for me.

I don't know  what to root for.

 

It is a nice problem to have.

Difficulty will meander for now slowly rising if we don't crash. 

[mikeywith]

... but we only broke under it once and that one time we stayed under it for a year. If that happened multiple times, I might agree with you. But 1 event doesn't make a trend.

But sir !

I'm definitely no expert though, just feeling optimistic today  .

Neither am I, I always try to be realistic, hope for the best and expect the worst.

I am just not sure which one of the three moves works best for me.

It depends, if your power is cheap and you are in for the long run (HODL) then price drop now would be best for you, difficulty drops a big time, you get to mine more BTC before the rally and of course the opposite is correct as well. To me I don't really care, I will be happy in both cases, as long as my gears don't burn or stop hashing I will always be happy.

[wndsnb]

OK, 2 times is better but still not a trend...

I'm normally right there with you, better to be surprised by the upside than the down. I'm not a trader though and haven't even sold any BTC to pay my power or hosting fees for several years. So I can afford to be optimistic...  . HODL HODL...

[philipma1957]

I mine on the cheap.  I sell some I hold some.  I walk a tightrope.

coins
gear
cash
debt

I am always checking ratio of the four items above.

Also diff to price ratio  gets checked constantly.

I have found  flat diff  of 4 jumps in a row   can be predicted often.

[mikeywith]

OK, 2 times is better but still not a trend...

Bitcoin has a very short data, it's just about a decade old, so two times is actually a trend, given that each of those cycles took about 2-3 years to complete both bear and bull cycles, this would carry a lot less weight if the chart was 30-40 years old, but hey this is Bitcoin, it can do whatever it wants to do.

I'm normally right there with you, better to be surprised by the upside than the down.

Exactly.

coins
gear
cash
debt

I wish I took all of these aspects seriously when I first started mining, I was very reckless, made a lot of bad decisions, I never bothered about anything but to blindly increase my hashrate which is not bad but when done without means of calculations and research becomes so, let alone investing in non-btc gears that have short lived before coming a door stop.

Things now have changed for me, there is a lot into it than just me having fun trying out mining, I take mining very seriously now and I think of every possible outcome before I make a move.

[philipma1957]

i made my share of errors. but thats okay 👌.  live and learn.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   614518  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.4240%  (1655 / 1555.10 expected, 99.9 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15695146162141 and 15727542153962
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.2179% and +6.4371%
Previous Retarget:   January 14, 2020 at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 10:23 PM  (in 2d 8h 32m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 11:02 PM  (in 2d 9h 11m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 43m 5s and 13d 4h 22m 6s

Looks like 5-7 %

a new high  and just about 118eh.

[wndsnb]

Yeah, looks like we're headed for about 15.5T diff. About 15eh added since the new year.

I'm wondering if we're going to see another flat diff section or if we're just going to have a constant slope into the halving.

This suggests that S9s are pretty much gone:



But with prices where they are now and 15.5T diff the break-even for 90W/th S9s is 6.3c. Seem like there'd still be a bunch of S9s out there running on cheap power at this level. Maybe even some large farms that are sitting on their S9s waiting to see what happens after the halving before making any decisions on purchasing new gear. Maybe the 15eh of new hash since the new year are just some S9s getting turned back on after the pump back up to 9k.

[philipma1957]

Look like many big farms are playing it safe they want to see what the ½ ing will do.

We have about 108 blocks to next jump.

Oh happy birthday to me.

maybe we break 9k


edit

68 blocks to go

looking at a diff of 15.5 a jump of 4.8 to 5.0%

coins at 8960

edit:

54 blocks to go

looking at a diff of 15.47 a jump of 4.7 to 4.8%

coins at

$8896


edit:

50 blocks to go

looking at a diff of 15.44 a jump of 4.5 to 4.7%

coins at  9060

[mikeywith]

But with prices where they are now and 15.5T diff the break-even for 90W/th S9s is 6.3c. Seem like there'd still be a bunch of S9s out there running on cheap power at this level

Maybe you are missing one point, Antminer S9 can run on LPM (Lower Power Mode) and many people have reported great results, I heave personally heard from a friend that I trust that he runs all his S9s at 75w/th, he is getting 10.5th to 11th at 800w range, with these numbers S9 makes about half a dollar a day for 6 cents per kwh, for someone with 4 cents they make about 80 cents a day, there is still a bit of room for them.

Also some people have cheaper power than that, and that will take them a while to turn off their S9s, the halving however will take care of the S9s if price does not respond accordingly.

[philipma1957]

I think a lot of s9s are in play

I think a lot of new gear is not in play.

some big farms with three cent power are simply going to ride the s9s to the 1/2 ing then decide what to do.

I am running 3 s9s with a west coast location.

i pay 145 a month.  30 x 40 x .15 = 180 that is 35 profit.

I have had them there since Nov 1 2018.

they made money each and every month. I will ride them till the 1/2 ing and decide if i will ship 🛳 two s17 pros to replace them.

[Biffa]

Height	Block Time	Difficulty	Change	Bits	Average Block	Average Hashrate
614,880	2020-01-28 08:44:03	15,466,098,935,554 - 15.47 T	+ 4.67 %	0x171232ff	09 min 33 s	110.71 EH/s

[philipma1957]

Coins are at 9020.

[mikeywith]

I think a lot of s9s are in play...

I am more like “sure”. Many farms in China have 0.04$ per Kwh rate, if they run S9 on LPM they make .85$ a day or 25$ a month, the old S9s go for about 50-70$ in China, hard to sell / easy to buy. Which means the guys who own them are not willing to let go for less than 50-70$, why? Because they can easily get that much before the halving.

and since there are people with even cheaper power or no power bill at all and the possibility that S9 will become profitable again even after the halving if price spikes way faster than difficulty, it makes sense to keep hodling that S9 rather than selling them for less than the price mentioned aloe.

With Bitcoin staying around the current levels or moving higher, I expect S9s and the like to still be in play until the halving happens, once they retire, people will be surprised of how many S9s were actually still in play and that it wasn't the new gears that making up all that hashrate.

Phill, we seem to be on the same line, the majority of people, however, would think the opposite.

[philipma1957]

A lot of upward price pressure  as we past 9400   it makes holding onto s9's look okay for now.

For 1-5 cent power cost to be  mining why not stick with the s9's if you have them.

[vb2005]

Phill, we seem to be on the same line, the majority of people, however, would think the opposite...

I also think the same. I think this rise in diff is caused by S9 s turned on when BTC price went up but i think this can end soon and BT price will continue to rise but diff will stop for some time. No way Bitmain and other manufacturers sold many of new model miners - their ROI was terrible and it still does not look too good.

[philipma1957]

We are right around 9350  for price  this level  would be good if it stays flat for a week or 2.

Chinese Holidays are winding down.  We should see some moves on Feb 3 or 4.

Diff is pretty even last I  looked +2.9%

Latest Block:   615093  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.9538%  (214 / 207.86 expected, 6.14 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   15466098935554.65XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15556532161685 and 15926642614610
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5847% and +2.9778%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 10, 2020 at 6:05 PM  (in 12d 3h 42m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 11, 2020 at 1:47 AM  (in 12d 11h 25m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 21m 35s and 13d 22h 3m 43s

I wonder if the lockdown of Wuhan, China  will be lifted or continued for a few more weeks. I would think if it stays locked down fears of a killer flu/plague would cause a lot of speculation in price.

A locked down area with internet access can get crypto coins in and out past the barricades of police.

[mikeywith]

A locked down area with internet access can get crypto coins in and out past the barricades of police.

Well, it's not that people in quarantined cities don't have access to their online banking systems, I don't see the relationship between that and bitcoin price.

I see some people try to imply that the last spike in Bitcoin price was due to tragic coronavirus and people are panicking and rushing to buy Bitcoin, which I don't seem to agree to, people there are now facing a survival-related matter, it is not an economical fear where they need to find alternatives currencies or store of value, in fact, if you were HODLING some bitcoin and were in a situation like the people in Wuhan are in now, wouldn't you want to sell it so you can stockpile all the grocery, medicine and other important stuff? or simply not do anything BTC related?

I, however, agree to the fact that difficulty will be most likely be flat or have only a minor increase, in the grand scheme of things, China is the only ASIC Miner's manufacturer, and with things not going too well at the moment, everything from production to shipping will indeed slow down. It's a sad thing and I hope they will get through it with as little damage as possible.