It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

fees are not going up  as much as reward is dropping.

this discourages mining growth.

that discourages mining sales.

so the mining/asic building sector becomes more detached from price influence .

the trading and exchange fully drive price (not yet but they will)

think what you can do with 100 to one leverage trades based on fake tokens.

twice as much influence  as you could before the ½ ing since 1800 coins entered.

here is another way to look at it we have 120eh   well more or less.

pretend it is 100eh online make it all s17 pros 50th at 1200 bucks.

20             units =        1 ph worth             24,000
200           units =      10 ph worth            240,000
2,000        units =    100 ph worth          2,400,000
20,000      units =         1   eh worth     24,000,000
200,000    units =       10  eh worth    240,000,000
2,000,000 units =      100 eh worth  2,400,000,000  so this is earning 900 coins day 8,550,000 usd x 365 = 3,120,750,000  a year minus power

it will burn about 38,690,000,000 kwatts that is 1,160,700,000 power cost if the gear is at 3 cents.

I am being really generous saying we have 100eh active gear all at  3 cent power cost.

which nets to 3.12 billion - 1.16 billion or just under 2 billion in profit for owning 2.4 billion in miners not counting help not counting infrastructure.

what we have is a disincentive for mining to happen and one of the weakest times ever for mining.

But my thoughts could be wrong.  Nothing like a bull run to 15k would not fix.

[1714112922]

1714112922

[1714112922]

1714112922

[mikeywith]

Again, I am lost. Why does trade volume to total market cap matter? Does anyone think that 41 Billion in trade vol happened yesterday? Its fake...

While MOST exchanges report fake volume, it doesn't mean the most of the volume is fake, according to study/audit https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf , we know that at least the following 10 exchanges provide accurate volume

Binance > 536,016 BTC
Bitfinex >8,556 BTC
Kraken >19,765 BTC
Bitstamp > 12,929 BTC
Coinbase > 26,752 BTC
Bitflyer > 7,079 BTC
Gemini > 1,473 BTC
Itbit > 608.75 BTC
Bittrex > 3,142 BTC
Poloniex >5,089 BTC

Total = 621,410 BTC average last 24 hours volume.

Notice that volume is in BTC not USD, in USD it's about 6 Billion, and this ignores every other exchange ( a few hundreds of them) and based on the assumption that 100% of the other volume is fake, which we all know is not the case, mind you the last 24hrs volume has been pretty low, so in many days we do actually hit 40B probably only out of these 10 exchanges.

Trading volume matters, in fact, ask yourself, if not for Tether and all these exchanges, would bitcoin ever go past $100? certainly not, you can't count on OTC markets and a few nerds exchanging bitcoin for some pizzas and a few perks of certain online games, these global trading platforms are the reason why bitcoin is worth this much, in fact even the majority of bitcoin transactions go throw exchanges, people trade bitcoin more than they actually use it, on the grand scheme of things, the use of bitcoin as a payment method is close to nothing, this is the same thing with gold or any other asset, it gains the most of its the volume from trading, not by sitting in a cold wallet doing nothing, its a sad thing but that's reality, you know it is when a whale places a huge short order of bitcoin he doesn't even own, selling/shorting an imaginary future contract that can take bitcoin 30% down in a few minutes, and the same thing happens on the way up for obvious reasons, long story short, trading volume DOES matter.

[windjc]

Ok, but most of the trading on these exchanges are high frequency bots. I agree liquidity matters. But I still contend that there are only a few million coins on the open markets. (also the majority of that volume is Binance which trades in Tether and doesn't have USD on ramps and off ramps, so I am not sure that should count exactly. However there are very active OTC markets that do billions in off exchange transactions a year, and that's real volume. So let's call it a wash.)

And, you didn't answer any of my points in the earlier posts. I think my reasoning about why we should expect another multi year bull rally is spot on.

[...]

I completely agree that fees don't replace halving reward lost. Absolutely. So bitcoin price will have to rise to make up the difference. If it doesn't eventually mining will decrease substantially. I just do not know why anyone expects that now is the time for this. I think this is at least another 4-8 years down the road as far as a bridge we need to cross. So far, as we can see with stock to flow, for 12 years price has risen exactly as needed to sustain miner growth.

[mikeywith]

reasoning about why we should expect another multi year bull rally is spot on.

The problem with your argument is that the obvious fact of why we would have a multi year bull market actually has nothing to do with the halving, it is merely "market cycles", let's assume there is no halvings in bitcoin, and we started the first block with 6.25 bitcoin rewards, or even minded the 21m coins in one block, will that change the fact that bitcoin will have a multi year bull rally??

[windjc]

Market cycles? So its just a coincidence that these cycles happen almost like clockwork around 4 year periods? I think you underestimate how narrative's work and drive demand. Demand follows and chases bullish price trends. The sheer amount of money invested in mining also creates a narrative of value now and in the future. 100% issuance day one would have allowed for none of this narrative or implied value. In fact there hasn't been demand cycles in any 100% issued coins that didn't simply follow bitcoin price trends. Alt coins "market cycles" are simply just a trickle down from bitcoin demand. Alt coins try to market narratives but the underlying goal is just earn more BTC.

In your other example where we started with 6.25 rewards, I suspect that bitcoin price would be a lot higher today as there would be a lot less in circulation. I don't know if there would have been enough in circulation to have created the initial interest, but perhaps. And we probably would not have had 4 year cycles.  And without halving, we would now have to look at other historical drivers. It would have been a different chart for sure.

[philipma1957]

The problem with your argument is that the obvious fact of why we would have a multi year bull market actually has nothing to do with the halving, it is merely "market cycles", let's assume there is no halvings in bitcoin, and we started the first block with 6.25 bitcoin rewards, or even minded the 21m coins in one block, will that change the fact that bitcoin will have a multi year bull rally??

yeah 21 m in 1 block would have been not effective.

6.25 with no ½ ing may have been better

then

50
25
12.5

6.25 ---------------------this may decouple mining from any effect on price of coin.

3.125 ------------------- maybe this will
1.56125 ----------------  certainly this will
0.780625 --------------- this is 2032 date

this idea would mean coins last for quite the while.
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25 ---------- this would be the end of the 50 coin block it would have been 28 years to reach about 2037 only 10.5 mill mined
6.25   would go for 28 more years. or 2065.

There will simply no be enough tx fees somewhere from 2024 to 2032 for a major change in the industry.  Bitmain sees this issue and seeks to pillage coins as best they can.

[mikeywith]

So its just a coincidence that these cycles happen almost like clockwork around 4 year periods?

I always hear about this 4-year cycles, but I can't find it in the chart, i also can't find any colloerations between the halving and bull markets, below is a monthly chart which contains about 10 years worth of data, the vertical blue lines are the halving dates, the numbers below are rounded up and not 100% accurate.



1st cycle, bull rally with no halving, we were mining a dozen of BTC a day and had no problem with how price was going up, a complete cycle of nearly 1.5 years of 340000% increase and drop of 93%

2nd cycle, 311000% up, and a downtrend of 85% total duration of 3.1 years.

3rd cycle, 10000% up 85% down a total of 4 years ( assuming we have already bottomed out and now are in a new bull cycle)

Notice how in the first cycle, no halving, the second cycle, we were in a bull rally for nearly a year prior to the halving, and another year post halving,

For the 3rd cycle, we were in a bull market for nearly a year before the halving and entered a sideways market right AFTER the halving, took us nearly a year to break the previous ATH.

Well, of course, anyone can conveniently make their own cycles to prove that the halving caused those bull rallies, but the way I see it, is that both previous halvings came right in the middle of a bull rally when bitcoin was going up in price, either way, did the halving help make those cycles a bit longer and higher? maybe, would things have been much different if there was no halving? probably not, if the halving came right in the middle of a massive bear market, would it change that market to bull? probably no.

Also, notice that first halving cut down 3600BTC a day when the total circulation supply at the point was just about 10 million, that means in a year we cut down an equivalent of 1314000 which is 13.14% of the total supply, in this recent halving it's only 1.8%,  also taking into account that the market now is a zillion times larger than back then, the effect will be even less.

I think you underestimate how narrative's work and drive demand...

I don't, really, I just don't believe that lack of supply increases demand, it doesn't work this way, I could make my own coin with a max supply of 3 coins, would that make it worth more than $9000 a coin? of course not, I do believe bitcoin will rise in price, we will have a multi-year bull rally, not because of the halving, simply because of an increasing demand and market cycles phycology which has nothing to do with the halving, look at every other market from stock to commodity, none of those have any halvings, and they have multi-years bull market every now and then.

[philipma1957]

Diff is sinking at a solid rate since 1/2 ing
we were up 53 blocks. were are down 69 blocks.

so a loss of 122 blocks. since block 1008

1721-1008 = 713. should be  835

713/835-1 = -14.6% drop off since the 1/2 ing

price is  at  9750. has been at

8150  may 11------- 1/2 ing day
9943  may 14
9750  may 17

Latest Block:   630712  (23 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.1610%  (1721 / 1789.71 expected, 68.71 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15489061678584 and 15501752499055
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.8234% and -3.7446%
Previous Retarget:   May 5, 2020 at 12:02 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 1:10 PM  (in 2d 2h 50m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 1:27 PM  (in 2d 3h 7m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 7m 35s and 14d 13h 24m 49s

[windjc]

I don't, really, I just don't believe that lack of supply increases demand, it doesn't work this way, I could make my own coin with a max supply of 3 coins, would that make it worth more than $9000 a coin? of course not, I do believe bitcoin will rise in price, we will have a multi-year bull rally, not because of the halving, simply because of an increasing demand and market cycles phycology which has nothing to do with the halving, look at every other market from stock to commodity, none of those have any halvings, and they have multi-years bull market every now and then.

I never said this. I said the demand follows price. The halving disturbs the bid/ask equilibrium (because demand stays constant) just enough to create accelerated upward price movement which creates more demand which creates a positive feedback loop that results in fomo and a highly inflated price.

The fact that the first halving cut supply more dramatically caused a quicker acceleration. Also price was lower so acceleration had less weight to carry. In the second halving acceleration happened slower.

The third halving may well be even slower acceleration. I expect it to be. But this just fits into the argument that halvenings do in fact matter a lot. You're chart clearly shows acceleration of upward price movement after halving.

If we make ATHs in 2021 and a next super fomo top above $80k by the end of 2022, will you still dismiss halving as an actual fundamental driver?

[philipma1957]

if coins go to 25k or higher i would say that the covid-19 epidemic was the fundamental driver.

USA alone has printed 5-6 trillion since the epidemic happened.

My opinion is mining and the ½ ing are having less and less influence over BTC price and this trend will continue for the next 8 years. and or 2  1/ings

3.125 and 1.5625

I think coins may go up a lot since the entire world is printing money left and right to make up for the shut downs.

6 trill by USA alone is 30x the  no 33x the value of BTC

by the end of 2020 10 trillion or more will be printed by use to pump the economy due to the shutdown.  that would be 60x the value of BTC

oh diff is dropping more about -4.6%

[mikeywith]

(because demand stays constant)

On what bases? if demand stays constant then the halving should only allow Bitcoin to do +1.8% a year at the best-case scenario, there is no such thing as constant demand.

You're chart clearly shows the acceleration of upward price movement after halving.

No such thing, the acceleration and the shift of the upward angle happens after the breaking the previous ATH not because of the halving, I have been playing with the chart for years, I have no intention to do this again just to prove my point, the chart is accessible by one, use the "Trend Angle" tool to measure the trend, or simply look at the size of the candles, what caused the fast large movements was always breaking the last known ATH, not the halving, nothing else, it's the market psychology, any market that breaks ATH moves really fast, the same thing will happen once we go past 20k, be it a month after the halving or a few years it will be no different.

If we make ATHs in 2021 and a next super fomo top above $80k by the end of 2022, will you still dismiss halving as an actual fundamental driver?

If we do that, which is very likely, I will still think it happened because of the way every other market on planet earth works, not because of the halving by any means, again this is what I think, this is what the charts show, I could be wrong.

USA alone has printed 5-6 trillion since the epidemic happened.

That's a good reason why BTC could go up, certainly makes way more sense the halving.

[philipma1957]

yeah cash 💰 is growing like mad.

while btc does not really grow.

it is always 21 million coins.

in two states mined and not mined well maybe three.

lost , mined and not mined.

we  should see a price boost as I see the world 🌎 printing 10 to 12 trillion dollars worth of various cash.

euros, dollars, pounds, rubles, yen etc.

what is name for chinese money 💰 spaced it out.

12 trillion new money is close to 100x btc value.

this is the single biggest reason for btc to go up.

[windjc]

[...]

Ok, we agree to disagree. I would say you are in the minority of the opinions of early adopters on this issue, but its very hard to prove or disprove these points scientifically.  I contend that bitcoin is not like any other market in the world including altcoin markets and can't be directly compared to anything apples to apples. But at the end of the day, we will get more data as the years pass.

[...]

I must admit, I have never really understand how the minds of miners work, its one reason I started following this thread after years in this industry. But I assume, one way or the other, you still expect price to go up and be profitable for you or you wouldn't work so hard at this.

[philipma1957]

Simple enough.

cheap power = profit

there is more but. cheap power takes away most risk.

You do not get the returns of buy and hold. But you don't fear buy and drop in price.

I can make money if coins drop.
I can make money if coins go up.
I can make money if diff goes down.
I can make money if diff goes up.

If build burns down I collect as they are insured.
If gear is stolen I collect as they are insured.

My risk is not high.  But I do not get crazy high returns.

[mikeywith]

but its very hard to prove or disprove these points scientifically. 

Indeed, there are many valid arguments, I still have a few cards to play, one is that halving most likely causes hashrate to drop and thus bitcoin becomes less secured and loses some of its value, you can't say that is wrong, it's technically right, but it's based on the assumption that people actually care about the security aspect of bitcoin which I doubt anyway, so I finally agree to one of the points you stated, we can't prove anything.

I contend that bitcoin is not like any other market in the world including altcoin markets.

That's true, I am sure Bitcoin is very unique as is, I just don't think bitcoin as a market is any different because the same people who trade bitcoin, trade everything else, the human psychology dictates everything, the majority of bitcoin buyers buy it because it has a potential of growing in value and could increase their wealth, those who invest in bitcoin for the sake of it being an incredible invention probably don't make up a 10% of the investors.

Meanwhile, we are dropping nice and slow, it looks like 6-8% is doable for the next epoch.

Current Pace:   95.6730%  (1784 / 1864.69 expected, 80.69 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.3121% and -4.2575%

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

[windjc]

... those who invest in bitcoin for the sake of it being an incredible invention probably don't make up a 10% of the investors.

There might be 10 to 1 traders to hodlers in the world as per population.  But Hodlers own 80%+ of all coins.

[...]

True. You trade less monetary risk for time and effort.

[stompix]

I completely agree that fees don't replace halving reward lost. Absolutely.

I was curious about this, so did some digging:

14 May from 00>24   114 Blocks > 145.5926338 in fees
Last 24h,                  127  Bloks > 123.5550215
Random date in April  153 Blocks > 23.54929681

So, the fees would cover only  11% of the loss.
And, there is an additional problem, as the price of BTC goes up, people won't be that happy to spend 100BTC in fees, so this will be more like a linear $ value.

I never said this. I said the demand follows price. The halving disturbs the bid/ask equilibrium (because demand stays constant) just enough to create accelerated upward price movement which creates more demand which creates a positive feedback loop that results in fomo and a highly inflated price.

The fact that the first halving cut supply more dramatically caused a quicker acceleration. Also price was lower so acceleration had less weight to carry. In the second halving acceleration happened slower. The third halving may well be even slower acceleration.

You can play with statistics on how you want it and draw any conclusion you want as long as everything is based on assumption.
Look, I can make exactly the opposite reasoning as you, this halving will accelerate demand..
After the first halving, the minting dropped by 3600 coins, at 10$ per coin, 36 000 less a day needed to prop the price.
After the second, 1800 fewer coins, 600$ per coins, 1 mil less a day needed to keep the price.
Now, we're close to 8 million less, So, less investments needed to keep the price level.
Of course, there are a hundred things wrong with this conclusion but it's just an example of how you can play with numbers and draw the conclusion you want to, but not the real one.

Back to the diff, seems like it's ~4.5%  for this one.
Judging from the last 3 days, another 10%-15? next time if no price increase?

630813   0000000000000000000c56550eb700a68f0e1851c0227410bd417656f60dd3a3   2020-05-18 09:46
630329   0000000000000000000595300827c76156af05b6bdf080713be5520a0a86774c   2020-05-14 10:08

121 blocks over 24h on average.

[philipma1957]

price 9650
diff  -4.44
blocks left 185

Latest Block:   631004  (15 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.8684%  (2013 / 2144.49 expected, 131.49 behind)
Current Difficulty:   16104807485529.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15119368494506 and 15119370543164
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.1189% and -6.1189%
Previous Retarget:   May 5, 2020 at 12:02 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:59 PM  (in 0d 0h 31m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:59 PM  (in 0d 0h 31m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 56m 52s and 14d 21h 56m 52s

Pretty good -6% in 2 more blocks.

Now 1 more block.

We were doing very slow the last 1008 blocks  about

1008/1190 -1 = -15.2 % since the  ½ ing

I am thinking next jump will see a drop of 6-9%

Then we will be more or less depending on coin price to dictate diff vs ½ ing

[mikeywith]

I am thinking next jump will see a drop of 6-9%

I think more is doable, assuming price won't be going any higher, the average time for the 20 blocks we found so far is 18 mins, 20 blocks is without a doubt a very tiny sample, but it does show that a good portion of the hashrate has left the network, also the fact that used S9s are going on sale!!, you can find them for $25-30 with PSU, this tells me that a lot of them just went offline the past couple days and that's why the price is low, and until those gears find a new "home", I think a sharp drop in difficulty is imminent, my guess is 10-15% for this epoch.

[philipma1957]

very early but a huge diff drop

Latest Block:   631055  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   73.7779%  (48 / 65.06 expected, 17.06 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15138043247082.88XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 11786283004138 and 14938161679131
Next Difficulty Change:   between -22.1413% and -1.3204%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:32 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 3, 2020 at 3:09 AM  (in 13d 18h 46m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 7, 2020 at 8:58 PM  (in 18d 12h 34m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 37m 8s and 18d 23h 25m 15s

It could take 19 days to do a jump.

price has yet to crack 10,000 it is at 9736.