It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

Article says 3rd quarter.

so July 1 - Sept 30.

2040 x 95 = 193800 th or 193.8 ph. in the grand scheme of the network's 110eh it is but a drop in the bucket .  1/5 of 1 %

[1714768520]

1714768520

[minefarmbuy]

There are also a lot of big purchases currently, less available product doesn't bode well for asic pricing to come down, along with hr hitting 130EH. Holding patterns for a lot of miners are defiantly happening unless we start to see resellers compete in pricing to move stagnate product. 

[citronick]

Phil.... are you still tickering with frimware for Bitmain's ASICs?

Have your tried this below?

https://www.nicehash.com/blog/post/custom-nicehash-asic-firmware-update-2-0-1

[philipma1957]

Phil.... are you still tickering with frimware for Bitmain's ASICs?

Have your tried this below?

https://www.nicehash.com/blog/post/custom-nicehash-asic-firmware-update-2-0-1

I have used braiins with s9's and since I shut the s9's down I have used no aftermarket firmware.

[favebook]

Phil.... are you still tickering with frimware for Bitmain's ASICs?

Have your tried this below?

https://www.nicehash.com/blog/post/custom-nicehash-asic-firmware-update-2-0-1

That is Vnish firmware rebranded.
I asked and got direct answer confirming this.

I'd recommend you to try it or if you want, try original Vnish firmware, afaik, fees should be the same (or Nicehash takes a bit more) but firmware is 99% same.

[mikeywith]

It's most likely that nicehash can't edit a thing in the firmware and Vnish will put nicehash Logo for them, I still think it's unsafe to download anything from Nicehash given the hack which was likely an inside job, one can't tell for sure if the firmware you download is actually Vninsh rebranded or an infected firmware, I would certainly avoid it and download vnish from a trusted source.

[minefarmbuy]

Yea, that hack sucked. I gave up trying to recoup my payback since they've changed their operations so much and require login's now I believe.

Looks like network is adjusting to lower mempool size, down about 15EH from a just a day ago or so.

[philipma1957]

I got back 82%. they stopped paying last I looked.

[HagssFIN]

It is the same for me, I've also got 82% back.

[philipma1957]

it was about 0.0510 btc worth around 1020 usd at the time.

[mikeywith]

Looks like network is adjusting to lower mempool size, down about 15EH from a just a day ago or so.

What does mempool size have to do with lower hashrate? the fees rewards are too small to be considered as the cause of a drop of 15EH worth of hashrate when current average network hashrate is about 100EH, that's nearly 15%.

At the time of writing the average fees for this month has been 0.27BTC per block (266BTC for 964 blocks), that's 4.4% of the block reward (6.25BTC), so even if the mempool was completely empty 15% drop in the hashrate is not possible.

[vapourminer]

It is the same for me, I've also got 82% back.

no exact figure without looking but ~75% here from what i remember. last payment i think was december maybe?

[philipma1957]

What does mempool size have to do with lower hashrate? the fees rewards are too small to be considered as the cause of a drop of 15EH worth of hashrate when current average network hashrate is about 100EH, that's nearly 15%.

At the time of writing the average fees for this month has been 0.27BTC per block (266BTC for 964 blocks), that's 4.4% of the block reward (6.25BTC), so even if the mempool was completely empty 15% drop in the hashrate is not possible.

Well if we make 124 blocks in a day. vs 164 blocks in a day

in theory fees would be more since.
                                     total bytes/min bytes

124 x 1,360,000 bytes = 168,640,000/250.    =       674,560 max transactions less room means higher fees

164 x 1,360,000 bytes = 223,040,000/250.   =        892,160 max transactions  more room means lower fees

As to how true that is varies on a lot more than the math I show.

more blocks means a possible higher amount of transactions since there are 40 more blocks.

[mikeywith]

Well if we make 124 blocks in a day. vs 164 blocks in a day

That's correct, the maths are probably also correct ( I have not checked but I trust your maths) however, what you seem to be forgetting is that more blocks don't mean higher profitability, therefore it can't be the cause of hash rate increment. In other words if the network as whole finds 2x the blocks it finds in a day  (on average), this does not mean your miner now earns twice as much, it also doesn't mean your obsolete S9 can now come online and start generating profit, the miner's profitability has to do with the current difficulty and luck and nothing to do how many blocks the other miners are finding nor the network hashrate.

In plain English, fees are too small compared to the block reward itself (for the past couple of days which we are talking about), and therefore whether the mempool is full or near empty the impact it has on difficulty is pretty much almost nothing.

no exact figure without looking but ~75% here from what i remember. last payment i think was december maybe?

I think you got 82% as well, everybody got the same % and nicehash still owes everybody 18% which they seem to be ignoring regardless of how much profit they made since the last payment last year.

[minefarmbuy]

What does mempool size have to do with lower hashrate? the fees rewards are too small to be considered as the cause of a drop of 15EH worth of hashrate when current average network hashrate is about 100EH, that's nearly 15%.

At the time of writing the average fees for this month has been 0.27BTC per block (266BTC for 964 blocks), that's 4.4% of the block reward (6.25BTC), so even if the mempool was completely empty 15% drop in the hashrate is not possible.

Fees were quite heavy and you can see surplus hr adjust at time. Average fee when I post was about 0.6 BTC for a a couple hours, easily correlate profit switchers adjusting to it. Which fee are still up on 24 rolling average close to a 6.6 reward.

[stompix]

Fees were quite heavy and you can see surplus hr adjust at time. Average fee when I post was about 0.6 BTC for a a couple hours, easily correlate profit switchers adjusting to it. Which fee are still up on 24 rolling average close to a 6.6 reward.

Fees grow during the afternoon (GMT) and go down in the morning when even 1sat/b txs get confirmed.
In the last month, the fees/reward ratio is as mikeywith has said, around 4,5%, never passing 6%. Since the post halving period when that spike in fees has happened because of slower block time fees are almost insignificant
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-fee_to_reward.html#6m

As to how true that is varies on a lot more than the math I show.

Most important of them is a demand for that space, if there is no demand for it there is no need to pay above 2sat/b, so you end up with 700k transactions with 2sat on average vs 300k transactions with 20 sat on average. When we had those slow blocks in May average tx fee was around 5$, now with faster blocks, we have 1$.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#3m

[mikeywith]

... easily correlate profit switchers adjusting to it. Which fee are still up on 24 rolling average close to a 6.6 reward.

Profit switching does affect the network hashrate but to a very certain "tiny" degree, we are talking 15Exahash, all Sha256 coins excluding bitcoin don't even have half of that, so even if we were to assume that 100% of miners are set to profit switching, and all other Sha256 disappeared, there won't be 15EH coming to the network from there, I am well aware of automated farms that will shut down "programmatically" when are not profitable and come back online when they are in the profile zone, I am just not sure about how much hashrate those guys have, but you may actually be correct, although given the short time frame it could simply be the luck effect on the network.

Anyhow, he is an update

Next Difficulty:   between 17291952297815 and 17376566672531
Next Difficulty Change:   between +9.5522% and +10.0882%

We will make a new all-time high above 17T in less than 3 days, the current ATH is 16.55T, so the difficulty is making higher highs while the price is making lower lows, the two things that every miner hates to see.

[Philipma1957cellphone]

Yeah I am impressed by levels. I THOUGHT we would move slower

[Pendrak]

Yeah I am impressed by levels. I THOUGHT we would move slower

Those S19 and future S19++, pro and variants are going to make almost imposible produce money with old miners, even with S17/T17 units.

diff going up, really bad for me  

Bitcoin is going to the moon!!!

Good for those who can be holders  

[mikeywith]

Those S19 and future S19++, pro and variants are going to make almost imposible produce money with old miners, even with S17/T17 units.

You need to always be very near the most efficient gears, if you don't invest a certain portion of your profit to re-position yourself in a better place, eventually you will be left out, this is why the duration to ROI is crucial, also the timing is very important, many people I know ( including a few in this forum) bought those latest batches of T17/T17+ for nearly $800 plus shipping, that is what I call a terrible business plan.

If you bought a T17 58TH for $817, and paid 100-200 for shipping say you paid $1000 in total so unless you have FREE power, you will simply NEVER ROI.



Even with 2 cents per Khw, you will still need over 10 months to ROI, and this is the rainbow scenario where difficulty doesn't go any higher, price doesn't go any lower and your gears don't die on you.

With that being said, after a second thought on the situation, I strongly believe that difficulty has most likely hit the top, for now, starting from the next epoch my guess is that we start consolidating to the downside for a few months (unlike I thought a while earlier for many reasons which I will talk about in the near future), the correction won't be major so if you have an S9 and pay 5 cents per Khw, it's impossible for you to become profitable again, however, the adjustment will be a small push in profit, meanwhile, I wouldn't buy any mining gear at these current prices.