It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

Well a drop would be nice.

We know there is cheap power out there.

lets do a simple resource number the network is 120 eh

all gear is 50 watts average

we get 6000 megawatts maybe 7000 megawatts to run the entire network.

many dams world wide have enough capacity to run the entire network.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations

So we finally get an uptick to 9500+ on the price side

and a downtick on the diff

Latest Block:   640363  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.0127%  (1292 / 1389.06 expected, 97.06 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   15784217546288.15
Current Difficulty:   17345948872516.06
Next Difficulty:   between 16189025497253 and 16329492820633
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.6697% and -5.8599%
Previous Retarget:   July 13, 2020 at 7:03 AM  (+9.8943%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 5:02 AM  (in 5d 6h 28m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 8:18 AM  (in 5d 9h 43m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 21h 59m 8s and 15d 1h 14m 27s

[HagssFIN]

Yep, it sure is great to see some up movement for a change.

Now at 9.6k USD.

[stompix]

Seems like the drop is getting a bit smaller, and my outrageous scenario of 50% now needs a 55% increase.

Latest Block:   640734  (20 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.3620%  (1663 / 1743.88 expected, 80.88 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.3789% and -4.2503%
Previous Retarget:   July 13, 2020 at 2:03 PM  (+9.8943%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 5:54 AM  (in 2d 13h 11m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 6:24 AM  (in 2d 13h 41m 41s)

But I'm still confident we will see a rise in the hashrate, if Microbt can brag about sales, I don't see why Bitmain with it's sold out till October batches wouldn't be able to sell a few tens of thousands of miners at least, it's not overt ill the fat lady sing, or in this case till Bitmain delivers, if! they are going to with all the legal troubles and the fork the company is going through. Also, I have one thing I could blame for this drop, the floods happening right now in China, I am not familiar with the design of micro hydroelectrical stations they have in China but around here when there is a flood that has tons of debris and the debit is off the scales turbines are getting shut down and they let the spillway take care of the excess water.  Of course, just an assumption with little to back up this scenario other than some piece of news.
Anyhow, me being wrong is good for miners around here, so I guess everybody is happy with it.

[favebook]

I've got an info from one of Bitmain's marketing people that we might not see a single 19 series for sale all the way till the January.

Not really sure how correct this info is, but they told me that they do not know about other miners like Z15.

[philipma1957]

I've got an info from one of Bitmain's marketing people that we might not see a single 19 series for sale all the way till the January.

Not really sure how correct this info is, but they told me that they do not know about other miners like Z15.

Good news if true.

Now of course whatsminer will go up in price.

But growth will slow.

The last I looked a m30s is no more efficient than the s17pro set to low.

the 30s     is 38 watts a th
the 30s+   is 34 watts a th
the 30s++ is 31 watts a th

[Searing]

Do you really think Bitmain and the rest are gonna release anything new of any Algo flavor BTC/Crypto or otherwise even beginning of the 2021 year? I just can't see it.

I can see however them continuing the design aspects of any flavor of BTC/crypto for machines and sitting on such and/if when BTC/Crypto was to pop in price...THEN release such. But I think all this, with the pandemic and all, from a manufacturing point of view would be as they say from a 'dead stop'.

From what I understand, no matter how confident you are or how many chip platters you get for your ASIC chips there is a 3 month lead time to pull the trigger. Now assuming I'm right and most ASIC makers are sitting on their hands right now...we would need a pretty good pump to pull such off, like, IMHO above 11-12K for sure and 'stable' at that point, again, IMHO, as in the past the 'dreaded' 3-month pre-order (or more) and the above $3k price for any flavor of BTC/crypto ASIC would come back into play...and of course, as in the past, during that 3-month or more pre-order places like Bitmain and the rest will be filling up their data halls and driving up the difficulty, to fill their own empty ASIC coffers first. Again, the 'bad old days' of ASIC mining with a lot more risk and a lot less profit. Just saying I've seen this song play at least TWICE with various ASIC makers of any flavor Algo in the past. So myself, I don't see anything even potentially being able to MAYBE speculate on of any crypto/BTC flavor ASIC till at least Fall of 2021 at best. This is also wildly optimistic in my view.

I could be wrong.....but the big guys/manufacturing/ASIC makers are 'hunkering down' and it will take them more than a bit to 'rev up' again with the corresponding 'moon' to get them off the pad. We will see, hope I'm wrong, but damn the 'tune and music' is so damn haunting and familiar!

[HagssFIN]

[...]

Now there would be a lot of space for AvalonMiner 11 series...! With competetive power efficiency vs. S19 and M30S++.

[philipma1957]

Yeah it would be nice to see a lot of 1166 models.

Price has gone up a bit about 9700 last I looked.

@ searing did you know the founder of Fleetwood Mac died today

or was your reference to "the edge of seventeen" a vision?

[Searing]

I know all and all...this is why I'm always on the wrong end of BTC/Crypto Choices..it is too often to be 'chance' so perhaps I'm a 'reverse' visionary

[citronick]

With BTC touching 10k....... I am very tempted to restart my 30TH miners!

[philipma1957]

We all would like it to continue upwards and onwards.

Maybe 11k by mid August?

[citronick]

We all would like it to continue upwards and onwards.

Maybe 11k by mid August?

Phil... let me pick your brain.... at what price point will 30th miners at 6c/kw/hr power will break even ?

Many have advised me that its a lost cause but if I was not wrong at their peak 15k pricing....  every miner in the world were dusting even their oldest & powerhungry GPUs to work

[vapourminer]

Many have advised me that its a lost cause but if I was not wrong at their peak 15k pricing....  every miner in the world were dusting even their oldest & powerhungry GPUs to work

my ATI HD 4850 may ride again?  yes! it made my 1st coin back in 2011.

heck maybe i should try to get it up and running again. dunno what software would even support it anymore.

/end daydream

[philipma1957]

[...]

sure

at current price of  9950 usd a coin

1 th earns 0.0764 cents at viabtc
30 th earns $2.29 usd a day

2kwatt an hour is 48 kwatt a day make it 50 or $3.00

So if your gear is 2kwatts it loses 70cents a day at price of 9950

bump to 15,000

15,000/9,950 = 1.5 rounded up a bit

1.5 x 2.29 = $3.43 usd a day

so if diff is 17.0 and price is 15,000 it makes money assuming your gear burns 50kwatts a day.

I would argue BTC at 11k is sustainable long term

Not sure if it could stay over 15k long term.

[Biffa]

[...]

What phil said

[philipma1957]

Yeah I am seeing a reverse action which I think is due to the shitton plus of 60 watt to 100 watt gear that lays idle.

Okay I am no large or even medium but I have 60 pieces of s9's and l3+ sitting.
I can try to dump them or  let them sit just in case.

I have the room for them and could store them for years. Part out fans whatever.
I am not the only guy like this citronick is talking about his 30th inn's and others are in the same boat.

So we have a lot of forces in play here.

What is my cost of letting 60 pieces sit on a shelf at best I sell them all for 1500-2000 usa.

Involves work and labor to do so.

Everything is paid off. I have physical room to store them.
I can sit and spec with them.

If coins go up just enough I can mod them all (23 s9s) into 2 board braiins  space heaters. I sell them at a bit of a premium since they are really quiet and can use under 400 watts and as high as 800 watts

If coins go up a lot I can mine with them.
I would think if coins were to go to 15k a ton of gear goes on line just like that.

Which jumps the diff which I think drags down price a bit.

The gear glut will not leave for a long time.  So when we go up in price then up in diff then price drops a bit.

This reminds me when cpus coins got flood by ASICs excess hash hurt pricing.

I see this cycle really taking a long time to play out unless we moon to 30k or more.

Would be cool if it happened.

As I finally am prepped for mooning to happen. I do not expect it to happen.

The reason why gear glut will stick around is simple.

s9's can do 80watts a th
m10s can do 60watts a th
m20s can do 50 watts a th

the best gear is 30 watts a th

80/30 = 2.66 to 1 ratio

it is easy to over come with cheap or next to free power.

my 30 s9's at 1 cent power =   easily beat 4 s19 pros at 3 cent power

my 30 s9's at 1.5 cent power are very competitive with 4 s19 pros at 3 cent power.

whatsminer m10s at 1.5 cent power beat s19 pros at 3 cent power.
whatsminer m10s  at 2 cent power are competitive with s19 pros at 3 cent power.

[minefarmbuy]

Any thoughts on the huge spike yesterday?

171.73 EH at 640727

[philipma1957]

Any thoughts on the huge spike yesterday?

171.73 EH at 640727

Timing and some luck.

 If I was a huge farm with custom s19pros or s17pros I could manipulate hash rate with ease.

I have lots of s17 pros I set them to low 42th or 4.2eh cause I have lots

I could run them at 57th or  5.7eh this means I can change 1.5eh up or down in a few minutes.

If I am bitmain and have s19pros  I could do maybe 70th on low and 105th on high

say  7eh to 10.5eh

So I could shift 3.5eh on a whim.

I can effectively alter the entire network by shifting my gear settings.

Now if I dropped my settings for 12 days because price was dropping to 9000 or 9100
and now price jumped to 10000 with only 2 days left I could bump to 10.5eh and earn 10000 dollar coins vs 9100 dollar coins

Plus the diff ends up negative on the 2 week jump.

Toss in some luck too ing some others jumping in on the price jump and boom a nice high spike.

Since bitmain is fully and entirely unregulated no one know the extent of bitdeer size.

 I have read articles that the eco of bitmain claimed to have as much as 10% of the network.
Since he did not clarify if that is bitmain's private miners or bitdeer.  most likely bitmain has far more then full control of 10% of the hash power in the world.

  Always remember bitdeer  sells s17 and s19 contracts.  No auditors no evidence of what they use a full and complete lack of transparency. So I suspect bitmain can move 5eh to10eh up and down on any given day. Since no one has ever shown anything of their capabilities no one can prove this guess to be wrong.

I also think many of us hold old gear and can add on when the time is correct.

That is why the spike happened. Some is also luck.

Of course no proof of my guess only that it would be easy to do.

It could all be luck. But since my explanation has never been disproven and bitmain will never effort to do so. My guess is a mix of luck, bitmain/bitdeer, and the rest of the miners.

[minefarmbuy]

Interesting strategy. I never considered the ramifications of over/under clocking at scale at the network side.

Great notes for LP organizational strategy.

[philipma1957]

Interesting strategy. I never considered the ramifications of over/under clocking at scale at the network side.

Great notes for LP organizational strategy.

Look like it is exactly as described by me.

we peaked at 102 blocks behind around -8%

we have gone to 66 blocks behind around -3%

That gain of 36 blocks has all been done against 9800-10000 a coin blocks.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

we dropped more since I typed this.