It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[alh]

Zoomed right on past $10K to $10280 at this time. It will be interesting to see if that will hold or if the "magical" $10K price motivates folks to sell.

[philipma1957]

And the diff is going to be negative!

Latest Block:   641020  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.5975%  (1949 / 2017.65 expected, 68.65 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   15784217546288.15
Current Difficulty:   17345948872516.06
Next Difficulty:   between 16795097883559 and 16795687001697
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1757% and -3.1723%
Previous Retarget:   July 13, 2020 at 7:03 AM  (+9.8943%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:53 PM  (in 0d 11h 32m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:53 PM  (in 0d 11h 33m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 49m 19s and 14d 11h 50m 6s

So 10,200 and -3% pretty good for a Monday morning.

The only negative thing is my entire 1.7ph has been offline since last Friday
due to the heatwave in our area.

[minefarmbuy]

China is flooding and US is having a heat wave. Portland is hot af for us as well.

[philipma1957]

19 blocks to go.

now -2.6%


10,842

I would love to see it break 11111.11

[mikeywith]

So were expecting just about a 6% drop half way through the current epoch, and now in just 14 blocks we will have a 2.5% drop, so in other words we claimed up 3% after a massive 18% increase in price, which means if price didn't climb so fast we would be most likely have gotten more than 6% drop, my previous assumptions that we continue to go go lower in diff or stay flat was based on the fact that price wouldn't be going any higher, I still think that current prices of $10800 won't change the equation much, but if we close this week above $10500 chances are we go to $13900 in no time, and from there many things will change, even old obsolete gears will be able to come back online.

[Searing]

My breakout number is $11,000 BTC and I'll be a very, very happy man! (will not take much to figure out why..this $$$$ is approprate in HODL mode!)

Although $11,111.11 is much nicer!

[philipma1957]

what would really be interesting would be a tremendous price jump.

18500 comes to mind this would bring back a lot of old gear.

we could move to 20t diff in a flash.

barring a crazed jump like that. if we stay at 10500 to 11111 next jump will be very interesting.

I would think we would have an ath of 18.0t

or maybe something weird happens and we drop 5% even though we maintain the 10500 to 11111 number.

[Searing]

A 'floor' of above $11k from now till the end of time is what I need to 'not worry about such much' from now on..that is my 'safe' place for price.

hey, so I'm 'girly' about my HODL/HOARD... but that would be my 'always' comfort zone as far as price...anything under that and I'm still bit 'miffed' or course it is an arbritray amount and 'fencepost' in my mind...but when above $11k for obvious math reasons most should be able to figure out..anything above $11K till the end of time, compared to when I started with BTC in 2013..would be my 'happy place indeed!:

(ah, daydreaming is nice....)

Brad


At $18,500 BTC say, I'd 'dump' all my altcoins for safety reasons..due to past 'corrections' on such BTC pumps/jumps..now what I do with such... spend the Altcoin money on dubious women of low morals or trips or fast cars or bitcoin I'm not sure..but from 'daydream' point of view at an $18,500 BTC price, I would not be 'sweating' the BTC HOARD/HODL situation much anymore..in that is well above my $11,000 'happy place'

Again....back to daydream of this pump until BTC 'you merciless' bitch dumps back to $9k or something to bust my balls'. Anyway, I celebrate while I can. The ways of BTC/Crypto are mysterious to me! So I take my 'happiness' of pumps while I can to store against 'dumps' ..but maybe, just maybe, $10,000 is the new floor that BTC will never go under again. (I know, tis, stupid ..but be still my heart!....rainbows/unicorn farts and fairy-dust aside!)

Brad

[philipma1957]

We did -2.87

diff moved from 17.34 down to 16.84

price went from 9237 on July  to 11408 now 11,222

11,408 is fucking impressive

some sell off got triggered and we dropped to 11,222

July and August could be very interesting.

All my gear just became more valuable.



I wonder if I am going to have to sell some coin soon.

[mikeywith]

2.78% difficulty drop along with 20% price increase is something I will take with absolute pleasure.  

However, i still wouldn't fomo just yet, we are back below 11k which could actually be just a minor correction, I still think that we MUST close this weekly candle above $10500 for us not to dip below current prices again, as far as difficulty goes, I highly doubt we see crazy jumps in the near future, remember that the largest supplier of mining gears is out-of-stock and facing some real internal issues, old gears alone won't be able to make any crazy jumps, I think if price goes up, difficulty will take a much longer time to catch up, and that is paradise for miners.

[philipma1957]

I think the bitmain issue is good for price.

If we can bounce back to 11400. I think we will go past 12,000

Or settle back to 9500

So 9500 to 12,000.

I am not a price picker. But the jump over 11,111 was welcome to see.

[alh]

Just saw a BTC price of $11,111.12 on Coinbase. This was just off by $.01 from an earlier comment by Phil. Made me smile so I thought I would mention it here.

[philipma1957]

It would be a good floor for us miners.

Latest Block:   641509  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.4975%  (422 / 424.13 expected, 2.13 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   17345948872516.06
Current Difficulty:   16847561611550.27
Next Difficulty:   between 16783542604513 and 16823507991061
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3800% and -0.1428%
Previous Retarget:   last Monday at 5:47 PM  (-2.8732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 10, 2020 at 6:25 PM  (in 11d 1h 56m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 10, 2020 at 7:29 PM  (in 11d 3h 0m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 38m 9s and 14d 1h 41m 49s

A tiny diff drop of -.5% and a 11111.11 price floor for August 10th jump would be very helpful.

My 1.7ph is on line again. brownouts ended.

1700 x 0.0896 = 152.32 a day

2 weeks ago

1700 x 0.0675 = 114.75 a day

We need more upwards price movement.

lets get to $12345.67  by august 15th.

[philipma1957]

Still early for diff but we are  better then -1%

Latest Block:   642025  (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.6902%  (938 / 950.45 expected, 12.45 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   17345948872516.06
Current Difficulty:   16847561611550.27
Next Difficulty:   between 16636030668438 and 16695969041344
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.2556% and -0.8998%
Previous Retarget:   July 27, 2020 at 5:47 PM  (-2.8732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 10, 2020 at 8:58 PM  (in 7d 12h 46m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 10, 2020 at 10:14 PM  (in 7d 14h 3m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 11m 3s and 14d 4h 27m 33s

BTC price got all the way past 12000

12,134 at 12:01 Am Aug 2

then dropped to 11,182 at 1 am Aug 2.   Note I got those numbers from Coinbase price charts

it has been hanging in there at about 11200 since then.

11,200 and a diff dropping to 16.6 would be nice.

I will be adding some more info when I post here.

tx fees of last six blocks lifted from this site.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer

642025. = 1.34
642024. = 1.76
642023. = 0.77
642022  = 1.54
642021. = 1.42
642020. = 1.77

huge fees are like coins being worth more then 11,200 for a miner using a pool that shares those fees.

I have most of my 1.7ph with viabtc

if you look here

https://www.viabtc.com/pool/state

they are paying

111.79 %. that means 6.25 x 1.1179 = 6.9868 coins a block

or for a guy mining at viabtc. the 11200 coin price is boosted to 12520

this is not an advertisement for viabtc it is simply showing that. for miners on the right pools. we are getting 2 boosts

1) the rise in coin price.  and

2) the share of the larger tx fees.

I also want to make note that in spring of 2017 fees got stupid high and were a leading indicator for the fall bull run.

I am basing a lot of this bull run to come on FUD of the Nov 2020 election in the USA

The left and the right are so fearful of each other that anyone with money is thinking just in case I need to leave the USA I want some wealth to have.

ie crypto coins better then anything if you are leaving an unstable country.

So if the election fear turn out to be a dud BTC and other coins will drop ending this bull run.
But it the election turns into a huge mess, first pray for me and my wife as we are not leaving, second coins will move higher.

Lastly I came up with this idea the following way.
35 days ago I told my wife we should go to Canada around Oct 25 of this year to watch the election result from a safer place.
She said fuck that shit we are staying.
I said okay.
Canada closed it borders to USA citizens about 25 days ago.
I then read Tom Hanks and his Wife became greek citizens which means they can travel to Greece and be let in.
After looking at all of the above I purchased 2 s15's on ebay at 730 with shipping tax and ebucks for the 2 with 24 months to pay zero interest. I realized the bull run would start soon.

July 21 we were at 9100

I purchased my units on July 21

Timing was perfect.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S15-28TH-s-ASIC-Bitcoin-Miner-BTC-with-PSU-Not-S9-S17-M2-M20/224075044130?

Much like oct 2018 when I said the diff would drop right before the large drops happened.

I have no idea is my call will be as good as the 2018 diff drop call was, but why not    and we get an ATH for btc.

[mikeywith]

they are paying

111.79 %. that means 6.25 x 1.1179 = 6.9868 coins a block

or for a guy mining at viabtc. the 11200 coin price is boosted to 12520

Binance's FPPS was 112.10% yesterday, which is pretty close to viabtc, you are 100% right phill, everyone should be mining to pools that pay the block fees, recently fees have been pretty high, on average over 10% of the block reward, so in other words if your pool isn't paying the fees you are simply losing $100 in every $1000 you make, that's a ton of money in the long run.

After looking at all of the above I purchased 2 s15's on ebay at 730 with shipping tax and ebucks for the 2 with 24 months to pay zero interest. I realized the bull run would start soon.

July 21 we were at 9100

I purchased my units on July 21

Timing was perfect.

Timing is everything, I got my hands on some more S9s, the total cost for each was about $65 plugged and running (including every little expense) with the current difficulty and price I should ROI in just about 50 days, what I would do next is sell them and move to a slightly more efficient gears.

If in 2 months, we hit a high price of say 15-16k I should be able to sell these people for over a $100, if I get a $100 each that will be 153.85% profit in 2 months, which I would gladly accept.

If price turns south, I would simply let the gears mine on without having to worry, with that being said and despite the current prices and a potential bull-run, it isn't worth paying over $3000 for an S19pro like many people still do.

[philipma1957]

price is near 11800

diff is good.    + 0.67%

Latest Block:   642551  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.6787%  (1464 / 1454.13 expected, 9.87 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   17345948872516.06
Current Difficulty:   16847561611550.27
Next Difficulty:   between 16958912050941 and 16968001292170
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6609% and +0.7149%
Previous Retarget:   July 27, 2020 at 5:47 PM  (-2.8732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 3:31 PM  (in 3d 19h 22m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 3:41 PM  (in 3d 19h 32m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 44m 5s and 13d 21h 54m 16s

[stompix]

Wow, the estimation went up by 1%. Looks like my prediction (facepalm!) is not off any more by more than 70%!

Current Pace:   101.0507%  (1649 / 1631.85 expected, 17.15 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.0468% and +1.0830%
Previous Retarget:   July 28, 2020 at 12:47 AM  (-2.8732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 9:17 PM  (in 2d 12h 31m 50s)

I was looking at the price diff charts for the last 3 months, image here and I still think something is fishy, we had a serious growth in difficulty the last time the price went up from the 7k area to the 9k, and a serious drop went it was the other way around. My hunch right now for not seeing a jump in difficulty is that bitmain is unable to deliver and maybe the competitors are out of stock, but I seriously can't understand why the hash that was generated at 9k and stopped at higher prices is not coming back online. Again, I could blame something like the floods but that is almost over and nothing major was reported either.
Fortunately for the miners around here seems like my scenario is getting farther away day by day, but, it's not over till the fat lady sings, or till Zhan and Wu make peace.

[philipma1957]

I suspect it is intentional diff manipulation. Simply because the industry would collapse if they keep shipping gear out.

Edit

When ASICs came out in late 2017 and early 2018 they crushed gpus and sent mining into a long downward spiral .  If they sold s19's and s19 pros in bulk the etc part of mining would suffer.

So we get a hash shortage and a price boost in coins to 11500. EXACTLY what miners need to carry on.

[mikeywith]

but I seriously can't understand why the hash that was generated at 9k and stopped at higher prices is not coming back online.

We are pretty close to ATH of 17.3T, nothing much has left the network, it's simply old gears got swapped by the new once, despite the 2-3k to the upside prices aren't good enough for most power rates, we are talking 12 months to Roi 17 series and well over a year and a half to ROI the more efficient gears.

Since the halving we had a 50% drop in BTC block rewards, we didn't have a 50% increase in price and yet we now have a 6% increase in difficulty from before the halving.

Loss    = 50% + 6%
Gain    = 27% in price

Total = -29%, in other words, mining now is 29% less profitable but the latest generation of mining gears aren't 29% cheaper and they aren't even 29% more efficient, add to that the fact that you mentioned above about Bitmain not being able to deliver new gears and their rivals don't have/can't make enough mining gears.

All these factors combined will help suppress difficulty until either price makes another jump so that older gears become profitable again, or the world gets over the pandemic real quick and Bitmain goes back to normal production levels, and I doubt the latter is going to happen anytime soon, but the former is likely now that the charts look bullish above the critical level of $10,400.

[philipma1957]

At mikey we stay semi flat until price moves over 15k  or price drops to 7k

A lot of 50watt gear is out there some 80watt gear.

some 30 watt .  pretty much a bell curve.

It will take a year for the oldest gear to truly pass on some will live as solo pool space heaters

I would think we will be 50 watt to 30 watt gear by Jan 1 2021   making network near the 40-45watt a th rate.

Once network has pushed out the s9's and any 60watt or higher gear.  we will get more growth in diff.

for now 11400 price is not good enough to grow your farms. so sideways for a while.

Nice for miners with a paid for farm.