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[aoluain]

Bulldogs beaten by the Wests Tigers, bit of an upset that was. At least the Wests Tigers
are not going to be the wooden spooners this year!


This weekend I have bets on my usual 3, Storm to beat the Broncos, Panthers to
beat the knights and Sharks to beat the Dragons.

My wins in the last few rounds are only making up for the heavy losses earlier in the
season.

[Timelord2067]

I've been very selective in the matches I've put money on this season and haven't done many parlays.

I thought I was going to do well with the Storm, Panthers and Raiders winning their matches. Then, the Dragons and Roosters upset the apple cart. I picked the Bulldogs over the Warriors.

Today will probably see the Titans and Eels limp ahead of their other wooden spoon contenders. The Tigers will pick up a much needed two points by simply not playing. The Tigers haven't learned much this season.

[aoluain]

Oh look - Panthers up to 4th thats serious progress, I really didnt expect that.

My bet on the Sharks lost, TBH that was the one of the three that I was worried
about.

Yea the parlays are real dodgy in the NRL, there is an upset every round. Great if
you can pull it off though.

7 rounds left!

[Timelord2067]

By half time I thought the Panther's had it in the bag with such a low scoring first half (and it must have been *very* cold with steam rising off of the players). The Storm turned their fortunes around inthe second half to win 22 - 18.

Tonight, the Warriors and Dragons face off - I'm leaning towards the Warriors, but the Dragons are making a late season comeback.  (As are the Roosters, but I don't think they'll be able to dig deep enough to win against the Bulldogs who are currently in third place).

Just seven points on the table separates 4th (Panthers) from 10th (Sea Eagles).  Below that line, I can't see any of the remainder climbing high enough to be a challenge (11th Dragons and Tigers on 22 points, Eels, 20, Cowboys 19, Knights and Rabbitohs 18, then lonely Titans on just 16 points).

[Timelord2067]

It's half time in today's early game with the West's Tigers leading 12 - 6 against the Sea Eagles at half time.  The Sea Eagles captain attempted a field goal at half time, but it fell away from the goal posts.  Although the Sea Eagles are two points ahead on the ladder, I expect the Tigers will remain ahead in the second half to win two points to take them to 24 points on the ladder and into 10th place overall. (Go Tigers!)

Yesterday, wooden spooners the Titans lost to the Sharks 54 - 22.  Although the points scored was 30+ difference, I was surprised the Titans managed to score 22 points.  In the second game, the Broncos won by ten points against an inform Dolphins side 38 - 28.  In the late game, the Rabbitohs won 20 -16 against the Eels.  The win for the Rabbitohs see them join the Eels at 13th spot (20 points) on the ladder.

In this afternoon's late game, the Cowboys and Knights will jostle - if the Cowboys win, they will have 21 points and take 13th spot.  If the Knights win, then they Cowboys drop one place to 16th and the Knights haven't gained much rising to 15th place on the ladder.

*Edit* Brothers Brethren beat East's Tigers 38 - 28 to move into the local Union Cup at Ballymore in two weeks time.

As expected, the Cowboys beat the Knights 38 - 4

[aoluain]

Great win by the Wests Tigers, they are putting in some decent performances
this season.

My bet on the Sharks won obviously, I was surprised I got odds of 1.26 on a game
which realistically was only going one way.

Panthers v Storm - its kind of fitting that Storm won, they have been more consistent
than the Panthers IMO.

[aoluain]

"Clash of the Titans" coming up tomorrow in the Aussie NRL!

Panthers v Raiders - Ladder wise its 6th v 1st - Odds 1.62 v 2.21 - I'm going against
the team I have bet a lot on this season, after the Panthers were beaten at home
last week by Storm so I can only recon the top team this season are going to do the same.

Game two tomorrow:
Storm v Bulldogs - 2nd v 3rd - this should be a showcase grandstand match.
Storm are getting all the bets, the odds are 1.51 v 2.46. I dont know whether to
go with a handicap or an Under bet. I can imagine its going to be a close match but
it doesnt always work out like that between two top teams....

[Timelord2067]

The Rabbitohs "new" coach chalked up his 100th game with the team who served up a 40 - nil thrashing of the Dragons on Thursday evening.  The Rabbitohs climb the ladder to sit equal with the Dragons on 22 points.  As you can see from the nrl.com/ladder screen grab, 10th to 17th placed teams are all sitting on $501 odds with none expected to make the top eight much less the Grand Final.



This afternoon, the Sea Eagles will try to fend off the Dolphins who sit one spot above in 9th position.  The difference in prices is stark:



The Melbourne Storm's convincing win against the Bulldogs in the late game last night further embeds their second place on the ladder.  As the number of weeks grow short, it is unlikely the Broncos will fall out of the top eight, however, the Dolphins are breathing down the necks of the Roosters who take on the Eels in tonight's late game.  The Bulldogs can't move into the top two, but can hold onto their third place on the ladder.

(the Canberra Raiders also cemented their #1 spot with the thrilling win against the Panthers - an indication of which way a Grand Final might go)

The Sea Eagles have been a little hap hazard of late and the Dolphins will make them suffer.  The Sea Eagles on the other hand will want to push the Dolphins to tenth (the for and against might prevent that from happening). 

It's a must win for both the Dolphins and Roosters tonight. Last placed Titans are unlikely to have a win against the Warriors in the second game, but this year has been so Topsy-turvy, anything is possible.

Tomorrow, the 16th placed Knights should be felled by the Broncos, then the Tigers *might* (just might) have yet another impressive win, this week against the Cowboys.


The Wallabies win against the Springboks went unnoticed by the Australian media until Tuesday then they've gotten into a frenzy that the Wallaby's will do big things in the next few weeks (which is typical of Australian mainstream media in that they will only latch onto winning teams).

In the Women's Rugby world cup, hosts England won their first game against the USA 69 - 7.  England is expected to win the competition.  Tonight, Australia take on Samoa (should be a close game) Then, Scotland and Wales square off (that should also be another close game).

[aoluain]

Well I'm delighted with my "against the odds" bet on the Raiders to beat the Panthers.
I nice $5 bet at 2.21 !

I didnt bet on the Storm v Bulldogs match, I really didnt know which way to do it,
though i did fancy Storm.

The race ro stay and get into the top 8 is on now with only a few rounds left.

[Timelord2067]

Mathematically speaking, only the Dolphins and Sea Eagles on 26 points can challenge the roosters on 28 points, but in saying that, if the Roosters beat the Storm this week, OR the Rabbitohs in Round 27, then they would be on 30 points and their for+against would probably be high enough to keep them higher than both the Dolphins and Sea Eagles who need to win both games in the next two weeks.

The Panthers on 31 points sit in seventh place and can't be knocked out of the top eight.

The Rabbitohs have a bye this week plus one of their players has been suspended over a police investigation, but like the Cowboys the week after, it won't affect the ladder at all.

[aoluain]

I suppose a determining factor to a point is that the top 8 teams are not playing
each other so the bottom 8 are not getting points this coming round - I expect!

First game in the next round is very exciting odds wise - Bulldogs 1.07 - 7.40 Panthers.
They are that way obviously because the Panthers have not beaten the top teams
in their last 2 outings even at home but they were close matches. I've gone
with Panthers on a handicap + 18.5

Storm to win and Raiders -8.5 (being conservative)

[Timelord2067]

Yes, the media this morning has observed no team has won a fourth premiership from outside the top four.

The Panthers have 31 points and can only reach 35 points (to overtake the Warriors already on 34 points) by winning their last two games.

BUT.

The warriors play the Eels this week then the Sea Eagles next week.

And ... Both the Broncos and Sharks are already on 32 points. So, if they win both of their games, then the Panthers won't make it to the top four.

[aoluain]

FFS - my bet on the Panthers got obliterated yesterday. I had a +18.5 handicap
on them thinking I was being conservative and they only managed to score 4 points in
the whole match. Final score: Bulldogs 28 - 4 Panthers.  So I guess as per the Aussie
Media the Panthers are not collecting any Silverware this year.

And to my second bet: Storm v Roosters -Storm got taught a lesson today too,
I really thought Storm would continue their winning form.

Last bet tomorrow Raiders to beat the Wests Tigers.

[Timelord2067]

FFS - my bet on the Panthers got obliterated yesterday. I had a +18.5 handicap
on them thinking I was being conservative and they only managed to score 4 points in
the whole match. Final score: Bulldogs 28 - 4 Panthers.  So I guess as per the Aussie
Media the Panthers are not collecting any Silverware this year.

The Panthers fielded a second tier / reserve grade lineup "resting" their entire first grade players - essentially throwing their game in much the same way the Broncos did in the finals last year.

Last bet tomorrow Raiders to beat the Wests Tigers.

Photocredit NRL.com [link]

With their win against the Tigers (scoring a late try ten minutes from full time to cement their win 24 - 10), the Raiders have played 23 games, won 19 to give them 44 points on the ladder (byes automatically earn a team two points) giving them a two point lead over the Storm.  The Canberra Riders were presented the Minor Premier's Trophy at the end of the game because...

And to my second bet: Storm v Roosters -Storm got taught a lesson today too,
I really thought Storm would continue their winning form.

From the sounds of it, the Storm played a sloppy second rate game to the disappointment of their coach who glumly celebrated his 600th match coaching Melbourne in an on field interview after the game.

The Broncos who, without their captain (through aggravated reoccurring injuries) managed a 38 - 30 win over the Cowboys.  With the For Vs Against scoring on the ladder, the Broncos are now in fourth spot equal with the Warriors on the ladder with 34 points.

Even though they lost this week, the Roosters are in9th spot on 30 pints - two points ahead of the Sea Eagles who won 40 - 24 against the dragons.  Their For Vs Against isn't good enough to place them in the top eight next week, even if the Roosters loose to 13th placed Rabbitos (24 points on the ladder)

Today, the Sharks take on the Knights, then the Dolphins should have a fairly sedate game against the Wooden Spoon Titans (in my Universe, they would be relegated back to the Qld Cup and the North's Devils get promoted to the national game),

https://www.qrl.com.au/ladder?competition=114&round=23&season=2025

[aoluain]

Well at least I bad one win from this round!


Womens Rugby World Cup

Ireland won today beating Spain 43-27 in week 2 of the group stages and our main
rivals in the group New Zealand are now playing Japan.

Australia could only manage a draw with USA.

Rugby Championship

Next weekend sees the championship continue, round 3 of 6.

I'm surprised @darbitmobilerecovery didnt pop in to update us on the win Argentina
had at home against New Zealand?

[Timelord2067]

I'm surprised @darbitmobilerecovery didn't pop in to update us on the win Argentina had at home against New Zealand?

... or @Welsh for that matter.  We definitely need more people in this chat - it's somewhat disproportionate how few of us are here.

Not to worry.  Well done Ireland!  the 7th of September should be a great round again.

Canberra's coach has decided to rest six of their key players in their dead rubber game against the Dolphins in the last game of the last round of the regular season.

[aoluain]

Well I think like many Welsh fans Welsh has become frustrated with how the WRU
is handling its affairs.


NRL

Well its lucky I'm late to the thread this week and didnt bet on Storm as they
were beaten by the Broncos 30-14.

I'm actually not even going to make any bets this last round because none of the teams
actually have anything to play for.

Thats the down side of having the finals playoff, most teams in the top 8 will be resting
their key players before the real business starts.

[Timelord2067]

Our Argentinian friend hasn't commented on their teams loss to Australia after the 80th minute in Townsville overnight.  I was listening to the NRL game on the way home from an event I'd been at all day and the commentators were giving updates as the clock ticked down to the 80th minute with Australia still in possession of the ball.

My predictions for the NRL this week along with the wagers have tanked severely.  I picked the Storm, but the Broncos won 30 - 14.  The Sea Eagles outgoing captain who has had a knack for field goals ^{(most of the time)} scored the winning try against the Warriors 27 - 26 ^{(another wager lost by me)}.   The Roosters and Panthers easily won their games.  I also lost my wagers on the Tigers and Bulldogs, so my losses cancel out the wins four to two.

Today's last two regular season games see Canberra take on the Dolphins both teams don't need the win, but for the Dolphins it would be morale boosting) and in the last game, the Knights likewise don't have to win their game as they are Wooden-Spooners for the first time in living memory ^{(tied with the Titans for that dubious honour)} four points behind the Dragons.  In the unlikely event they win, then the Titans will sit in last place, not share it.

[aoluain]

NRL

Yea it was a bit of a silly round that last one, I suppose I could have made gains
with both Panthers and the Sharks but I wasnt going to risk it, not the finals !

Who do you fancy for the title Timelord? Raiders or Storm?


Womens Rugby World Cup

Ireland in action now, just after conceding a converted try. I didnt bet on this
Its hard to bet against New Zealand

[Timelord2067]

NRL

Yea it was a bit of a silly round that last one, I suppose I could have made gains
with both Panthers and the Sharks but I wasn't going to risk it, not the finals !

I heard the second half of the Dolphin's pounding of the reserve grade Raiders - fancy letting your supporters down by not playing at your best.  As I said last year when the Broncos threw a late season game, I hope it comes back to haunt them.  When I got to my destination I watched the half-hearted defense of the co-wooden-spooners The Newcastle Knights drubbing by the Parramatta Eels.  By the second half I was disinterestedly glancing over at the screens whenever a cheer went up from the crowd at the oval.

Here's the week one of the semi finals:

^{Screen-grabs courtesy of nrl.com for comment and analysis.}

Who do you fancy for the title Timelord? Raiders or Storm?

Looking at the ladder:



First plays third.  Sixth plays seventh.  Fifth plays eighth, then finally; first plays fourth.

So, the Broncos I would imagine figure if they can knock the Raiders out, then they are in with a chance.  Fridays game will be the thriller of the round when the Storm try to rain on the Bulldogs.  I think Melbourne has the edge over Cronulla.  I made comments at the start of the season (may have been last year's start) that the Bulldogs look ready with crisp lines and game play.  Next year they will be ones to back.

The Panthers are the only ones in the top eight to record a tied game.  I think that never-let-go game play will give them the edge over Auckland who falter towards the 70+th minute of game play.

I won't say it'll be a walk over, but I feel the Sharks have played much better and more consistently all year.  Therefore, my picks are:

Canberra (only just)
Melbourne
Penrith
Cronulla

Women's Rugby World Cup

Ireland in action now, just after conceding a converted try. I didn't bet on this. Its hard to bet against New Zealand

The New Zealander's love their Rugby!  It's been a part of their ethos for generations.  I had a short trip across the ditch this year and a big part of the inflight entertainment centres around rugby.


Over on Duolingo, I've noticed they've introduced Chess as a part of their overall package of tutorials.  In the chess section, a part of the scring is based on the Elo scoring method.  (a win earns one point.  Draw a half point while a loss sees a point taken off a player) - (in saying that, there's also a modifier based on how big a win or loss there is where one team (player) is much stronger/weaker than their opponent.  Although there is an actual 2/10 ladder at the moment, I'm wondering if anyone out there crunches the numbers to see what the ladder would look like based on the Elo Rating System - to give it it's proper name?)