Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

Strange that nobody didn't mentioned Ukraine strike on Black Sea Fleet headquarters. That moment of arrival of Storm Shadow rocket looks epic and people nearby just calmy hanging around https://t.me/Crimeanwind/43225
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia
While Russians for more than 1.5 years threatens to attack decision making centers in Kyiv, Ukraine is actually doing it. And looks that attacks on Crimea become daily thing already.

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

https://youtu.be/TKqWmM0yUAY?t=767

Proof that USA planned this war back in 1993

https://www.thepostil.com/1993-the-barry-r-posen-plan-for-war-on-russia-via-zombie-state-ukraine/

It is just some "conclusions" article from an

unauthorised biography of Baerbock

that is actually NOT linked, so ... I do not even have proof it exists. I think this falls under the category of biased opinion, even in the German article (linked) says that the "Greens" asking for further spend in weapons is "not pacifist" - who the f*ck would be a pacifist when Ruzzia, a nuclear power with a seat on the Security Council and veto power send half a million "green men" to invade a much weakly armed neighbour??? Get real!

To part of it I can give credit, as it seem like a classic defence strategy layout for a weak country against a stronger one - making the costs of an invasion so high that it is just not worth it. I guess now Putin is effectively getting a feeling of how it works in practice.

Similar to Taiwan, if fully committed, China might take the island... but they might also have an insurrection at home and be completely ruined in the process.

BTW among other information in the article, 12000 pounds to study in the LSE seems far too cheap. That's more like a term.

SERIOUS MATTERS:
- Confirmed, the US will send a "limited number" off ATACAMS to Ukraine with a side of general purpose munitions.
- 3 stormshadows hit the HQ of the RF baltic fleet. Rumour is that quite a few members of the high command were there right at that time.

So... I guess someone made of it what they wanted.

Umm, as usual you can't read (or pretend, maybe):

https://www.thepostil.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/US-Ukraine-Security-Cooperation-1993-2001-A-Case-History.pdf

Well, I can read the first page to start with, that you have not, or pretend not to:

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any of its agencies. This document may not be released for open publication until it has been cleared by the appropriate military service or government agency.

 it is not an official document, it is a student's paper from 2002. If you read through the paper it does not speak of "provoking" Ruzzia, it speaks of cooperation and military exercises and meetings US / Poland / Ukraine which is no secret.

Ukraine has benefited from poor U.S.-Russian relations for most of the period following its independence. U.S.resources intended for the higher priority U.S.-Russia security relationship have doubtlessly been redirected to Ukraine. For example, there has only been one significant U.S.-Russian ground forces exercise since 1993. Ukraine, however, has hosted annual exercises with the United States since 1995.

So, it is not a proof, it is not official, it does not say what you say it says and it does not reveal anything that is not public knowledge.

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[Branko]

So, it is not a proof, it is not official, it does not say what you say it says and it does not reveal anything that is not public knowledge.

LOL, OK chief

[LTU_btc]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

[paxmao]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

No worries, my posts are sometimes too long.

We have only see the beginning of the drone revolution. 6th generation fighters are playing with the concept of having a swarm of drone wingman (wingbots?) that could act under one direction, humans would become the strategists of the group rather than the pilots.

On a cheaper scale, the more expensive equipment may have to find a way to defend. directed energy weapons are the answer from the US and they are particularly good for dealing cheaply with swarm / overwhelm attacks of cheap low-tech drones. There is one source that say that at least some of these equipment are in use in Ukraine, given by Raytheon / US to declare them field tested I guess.

I am just waiting for the first confirmation of a heavy attack chopper being downed by a drone.

[Hispo]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

No worries, my posts are sometimes too long.

We have only see the beginning of the drone revolution. 6th generation fighters are playing with the concept of having a swarm of drone wingman (wingbots?) that could act under one direction, humans would become the strategists of the group rather than the pilots.

On a cheaper scale, the more expensive equipment may have to find a way to defend. directed energy weapons are the answer from the US and they are particularly good for dealing cheaply with swarm / overwhelm attacks of cheap low-tech drones. There is one source that say that at least some of these equipment are in use in Ukraine, given by Raytheon / US to declare them field tested I guess.

I am just waiting for the first confirmation of a heavy attack chopper being downed by a drone.

Honestly, The first time I checked on the videos of this war, I was quite impressed on how drones are being used for both sides to crack into the enemys lines of defense. It is completely new form of warfare, drones are more difficult to spot and destroy than the typical helicopter or war plane and can deploy granates over the enemy without putting own personnel at risk.

Though, it is sad that technological innovation and development usually takes the form of weapons and equipment to kill thousands of people. It is not a coincidence such a technological milestone like nuclear energy and weapons were reached during war times...

[DaRude]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

No worries, my posts are sometimes too long.

We have only see the beginning of the drone revolution. 6th generation fighters are playing with the concept of having a swarm of drone wingman (wingbots?) that could act under one direction, humans would become the strategists of the group rather than the pilots.

On a cheaper scale, the more expensive equipment may have to find a way to defend. directed energy weapons are the answer from the US and they are particularly good for dealing cheaply with swarm / overwhelm attacks of cheap low-tech drones. There is one source that say that at least some of these equipment are in use in Ukraine, given by Raytheon / US to declare them field tested I guess.

I am just waiting for the first confirmation of a heavy attack chopper being downed by a drone.

Honestly, The first time I checked on the videos of this war, I was quite impressed on how drones are being used for both sides to crack into the enemys lines of defense. It is completely new form of warfare, drones are more difficult to spot and destroy than the typical helicopter or war plane and can deploy granates over the enemy without putting own personnel at risk.

Though, it is sad that technological innovation and development usually takes the form of weapons and equipment to kill thousands of people. It is not a coincidence such a technological milestone like nuclear energy and weapons were reached during war times...

It's a story of humanity, first geniuses are exploited by politicians, fed propaganda to channel their brainpower towards creating a more optimal way to destroy each other, then they realize what they have unleashed but by that time it's too late. Think everyone realizes that swarms of these with AI to decide friend/foe is the unfortunate inevitable dystopian future, now the race will be who can produce that at scale first, and we all know who's the front runner on these. Not sure if directed energy weapons is the answer, very inefficient, would stand out on all EM scanners, if drones could just be 3d printed in the field what do you do if AI can arrange the swarm to attack at continued sustained rate of X drones per minute, run the energy weapon 24/7? Guess thats why all those futurists saw humans living under ground and all the other lovely predictions. And also a nice answer to Fermi paradox, all "intelligent" life is just doomed to eventually destroy itself.  

[Branko]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

[LTU_btc]

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

Thank you captain obvious for telling obvious thing. There is lot of videos of drones hitting tanks, cars or troops straight line into dugouts, but I haven't see video of such level of precision. Offcourse, probably you would be more impressed if such video would be from Russian side.

[be.open]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

There are really hundreds of such videos, but there is a nuance. The intensity of the use of FPV drones by Russia has been growing rapidly in recent months, in April there were 10 confirmed cases, in May 64, in June 92, in July 122, in August 242, and in September already 436. Statistics can be viewed here.

[paxmao]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

There are really hundreds of such videos, but there is a nuance. The intensity of the use of FPV drones by Russia has been growing rapidly in recent months, in April there were 10 confirmed cases, in May 64, in June 92, in July 122, in August 242, and in September already 436. Statistics can be viewed here.

White Ruzzian? like not "black" or Chechen or Gerogian or Uzbekian? Good personal text, it says quite a lotzz. 436 attacks? I would say it can be even more, cheap to produce for both sides, it kind of levels the playing field, if you count all sizes and types and the kills achieved with help of surveillance drones are every day.

[BADecker]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

There are really hundreds of such videos, but there is a nuance. The intensity of the use of FPV drones by Russia has been growing rapidly in recent months, in April there were 10 confirmed cases, in May 64, in June 92, in July 122, in August 242, and in September already 436. Statistics can be viewed here.

White Ruzzian? like not "black" or Chechen or Gerogian or Uzbekian? Good personal text, it says quite a lotzz. 436 attacks? I would say it can be even more, cheap to produce for both sides, it kind of levels the playing field, if you count all sizes and types and the kills achieved with help of surveillance drones are every day.

Nukes could mean the end of the world if they are used. And we seem to be very near to using them, if you listen to some of the things that Putin says.

Here, in the end of the Bible, in the Revelation, it talks about something that might be drones... if you stretch your imagination a little. After all, people back 1,900 years ago when the Revelation was written didn't understand machines like we do.

Revelation 9:7-11:

7The locusts looked like horses prepared for battle. On their heads they wore something like crowns of gold, and their faces resembled human faces. 8Their hair was like women’s hair, and their teeth were like lions’ teeth. 9They had breastplates like breastplates of iron, and the sound of their wings was like the thundering of many horses and chariots rushing into battle. 10They had tails with stingers, like scorpions, and in their tails they had power to torment people for five months. 11They had as king over them the angel of the Abyss, whose name in Hebrew is Abaddon and in Greek is Apollyon (that is, Destroyer).

Abaddon and Apollyon are names given to the Devil, Satan, who is considered to be the angel of the Abyss (Bottomless Pit). Satan likes wars. They kill people. Once people are dead, anybody who doesn't believe in Jesus-salvation (rising from the dead someday) will never have a chance to change, again, to be saved.

[DaRude]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

There are really hundreds of such videos, but there is a nuance. The intensity of the use of FPV drones by Russia has been growing rapidly in recent months, in April there were 10 confirmed cases, in May 64, in June 92, in July 122, in August 242, and in September already 436. Statistics can be viewed here.

White Ruzzian? like not "black" or Chechen or Gerogian or Uzbekian? Good personal text, it says quite a lotzz. 436 attacks? I would say it can be even more, cheap to produce for both sides, it kind of levels the playing field, if you count all sizes and types and the kills achieved with help of surveillance drones are every day.

Achieving even kills is crazy devastating for Ukraine, simply because of population difference. After loosing the territory with the people on them, and considering everyone that left, UA population is at less than 30MM, while Russia is at 150MM. Meaning with everything else being equal, UA needs to sustain 5x more drones than RU just to stay equal and have a chance to freeze the conflict at current lines. Put in another way, even if Ukraine somehow manages to achieve 4 kills for every 1 loss they're still doomed to loose. That's why to objective outside observer Ukraine's position is futile and set to fail from the start, and no weapon (outside some weapon of mass destruction) can change that.  
Same with USA (335MM) vs China (1.413MM), US would need to sustain over 4x kills just to "level" the playing field.

[paxmao]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

There are really hundreds of such videos, but there is a nuance. The intensity of the use of FPV drones by Russia has been growing rapidly in recent months, in April there were 10 confirmed cases, in May 64, in June 92, in July 122, in August 242, and in September already 436. Statistics can be viewed here.

White Ruzzian? like not "black" or Chechen or Gerogian or Uzbekian? Good personal text, it says quite a lotzz. 436 attacks? I would say it can be even more, cheap to produce for both sides, it kind of levels the playing field, if you count all sizes and types and the kills achieved with help of surveillance drones are every day.

Achieving even kills is crazy devastating for Ukraine, simply because of population difference. After loosing the territory with the people on them, and considering everyone that left, UA population is at less than 30MM, while Russia is at 150MM. Meaning with everything else being equal, UA needs to sustain 5x more drones than RU just to stay equal and have a chance to freeze the conflict at current lines. Put in another way, even if Ukraine somehow manages to achieve 4 kills for every 1 loss they're still doomed to loose. That's why to objective outside observer Ukraine's position is futile and set to fail from the start, and no weapon (outside some weapon of mass destruction) can change that.  
Same with USA (335MM) vs China (1.413MM), US would need to sustain over 4x kills just to "level" the playing field.

drone kills are no more dangerous to any side than the other (no more than any other mean of destruction), but speaking of numbers, it is an interesting subject:

There was a German minister (of War) that told the Swiss ambassador: "Our army is twice the size of yours, what can you do if we invade?", the Swiss took a few seconds and said: "each of our soldiers will shoot twice and then go home".

Jokes apart, numbers are important, you need soldiers yes, but modern war is a lot about quality. So, modern weapons can kill plenty of people in very little time which means that throwing meat into the trenches does not make a defence, it makes hamburgers. Ukraine has enough troops to cover the frontline plus attacking.

The most obvious example: Ruzzia was as large as it is now during the Kherson counteroffensive, yet plenty of land and a major city were liberated.

Another clear example, the Iraqi army was much much larger than the American troops deployed, but they lost and lost quickly.

By 1988, at the end of the Iran–Iraq war, the Iraqi Army was the world's fourth largest army, consisting of 955,000 standing soldiers and 650,000 paramilitary forces in the Popular Army.

Bottom line, if you bank in the size, you need to revisit the many times in history that numbers simply failed (I could put a few more examples, even dating to the Roman Republic or the Persian Empire times).

Even a relatively modest technological giveaway by the west armies (Stromshadows) has already rendered the Black Sea fleet and Sebastopol "under permanent threat" and destroyed a couple of vessels and the HQ. As of now, there are news of at least 12 Abrams making their way to Ukraine and tests in F16 and (much less publicised) of Gripen, which can carry long range Air 2 Air missiles. I wonder what the very resourceful Ukrainians can do with ATACAMS (ballistic missiles), F16, another batch of bad beasts Abrams and even possible a few Gripen (which can take of from pretty much a stretch of old road anywhere). I guess that we are going to see it, as there is no peace on sight this month.

Also to note that one thing is to have more population,  another is to mobilize, train and arm properly an army - a very different exercise. There are reports of pieces of equipment including tanks that come from WW II stocks. If you want to understand the difference, you can see this video.

The fact that Putin has had to implement forcible conscription and put forward all short of legislation such as accepting people who are pretty much crazies, threatening prison and loosing citizenship,...tells you how difficult may be to go from "population" to "army".

[Branko]

Jokes apart, numbers are important, you need soldiers yes, but modern war is a lot about quality. So, modern weapons can kill plenty of people in very little time which means that throwing meat into the trenches does not make a defence, it makes hamburgers. Ukraine has enough troops to cover the frontline plus attacking.

Actually, Ukraine is almost out of troops, hence conscripting disabled and soon women

Also, coalition forces in first Iraq war were bigger than Iraq forces (950 000 vs 650 000)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War

[paxmao]

Jokes apart, numbers are important, you need soldiers yes, but modern war is a lot about quality. So, modern weapons can kill plenty of people in very little time which means that throwing meat into the trenches does not make a defence, it makes hamburgers. Ukraine has enough troops to cover the frontline plus attacking.

Actually, Ukraine is almost out of troops, hence conscripting disabled and soon women

Also, coalition forces in first Iraq war were bigger than Iraq forces (950 000 vs 650 000)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War

Really? Women? Like in "women are not already fighting in Ukrainian army"? Sorry if I am breaking this to you, but they already are. There are particularly a couple of snipers out there with a good kill list - guns are quite democratic and gender agnostic.

As for you statement on "running short of troops", well, I guess we have to take your word??

By 1988, at the end of the Iran–Iraq war, the Iraqi Army was the world's fourth largest army, consisting of 955,000 standing soldiers and 650,000 paramilitary forces in the Popular Army. According to John Childs and André Corvisier, a low estimate shows the Iraqi Army capable of fielding 4,500 tanks, 484 combat aircraft and 232 combat helicopters.[76] According to Michael Knights, a high estimate shows the Iraqi Army capable of fielding one million troops and 850,000 reservists, 5,500 tanks, 3,000 artillery pieces, 700 combat aircraft and helicopters; it held 53 divisions, 20 special-forces brigades, and several regional militias, and had a strong air defense.[77]

what is your interpretation? In the first war, Iraqi army was like Ruzzia, in theory, really big in numbers. But T-72 do not react well to newer munitions. Oh, to add, technology is important, but in aviation is exponentially important. A 5th generation fighter can kill 10 or 20 4th generation and not even been seen.

[DaRude]

Emm... I have mentioned in my last two posts, but it is ok to say it a few times ... it is even hard to believe Ukraine could get that deep and shows a terribly brittle air defence from Ruzzia.

Didn't noticed your post, my bad. It's true that these things shows how brittle Russian air defence in Crimea is. I would relate it with one of their most advanced S-400 system destroyed few weeks ago.
FPV drones is very important weapon in this war. There is lot of videos where these drones is used to attack various targets, but this video shows something what I haven't seen before. What level of precision from drone operator:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16qxgzf/ukrainian_fpv_drone_flies_into_a_russian_dugout/

Theres literally hundreds of those videos from both sides

There are really hundreds of such videos, but there is a nuance. The intensity of the use of FPV drones by Russia has been growing rapidly in recent months, in April there were 10 confirmed cases, in May 64, in June 92, in July 122, in August 242, and in September already 436. Statistics can be viewed here.

White Ruzzian? like not "black" or Chechen or Gerogian or Uzbekian? Good personal text, it says quite a lotzz. 436 attacks? I would say it can be even more, cheap to produce for both sides, it kind of levels the playing field, if you count all sizes and types and the kills achieved with help of surveillance drones are every day.

Achieving even kills is crazy devastating for Ukraine, simply because of population difference. After loosing the territory with the people on them, and considering everyone that left, UA population is at less than 30MM, while Russia is at 150MM. Meaning with everything else being equal, UA needs to sustain 5x more drones than RU just to stay equal and have a chance to freeze the conflict at current lines. Put in another way, even if Ukraine somehow manages to achieve 4 kills for every 1 loss they're still doomed to loose. That's why to objective outside observer Ukraine's position is futile and set to fail from the start, and no weapon (outside some weapon of mass destruction) can change that.  
Same with USA (335MM) vs China (1.413MM), US would need to sustain over 4x kills just to "level" the playing field.

drone kills are no more dangerous to any side than the other (no more than any other mean of destruction), but speaking of numbers, it is an interesting subject:

There was a German minister (of War) that told the Swiss ambassador: "Our army is twice the size of yours, what can you do if we invade?", the Swiss took a few seconds and said: "each of our soldiers will shoot twice and then go home".

Jokes apart, numbers are important, you need soldiers yes, but modern war is a lot about quality. So, modern weapons can kill plenty of people in very little time which means that throwing meat into the trenches does not make a defence, it makes hamburgers. Ukraine has enough troops to cover the frontline plus attacking.

The most obvious example: Ruzzia was as large as it is now during the Kherson counteroffensive, yet plenty of land and a major city were liberated.

Another clear example, the Iraqi army was much much larger than the American troops deployed, but they lost and lost quickly.

By 1988, at the end of the Iran–Iraq war, the Iraqi Army was the world's fourth largest army, consisting of 955,000 standing soldiers and 650,000 paramilitary forces in the Popular Army.

Bottom line, if you bank in the size, you need to revisit the many times in history that numbers simply failed (I could put a few more examples, even dating to the Roman Republic or the Persian Empire times).

Even a relatively modest technological giveaway by the west armies (Stromshadows) has already rendered the Black Sea fleet and Sebastopol "under permanent threat" and destroyed a couple of vessels and the HQ. As of now, there are news of at least 12 Abrams making their way to Ukraine and tests in F16 and (much less publicised) of Gripen, which can carry long range Air 2 Air missiles. I wonder what the very resourceful Ukrainians can do with ATACAMS (ballistic missiles), F16, another batch of bad beasts Abrams and even possible a few Gripen (which can take of from pretty much a stretch of old road anywhere). I guess that we are going to see it, as there is no peace on sight this month.

Also to note that one thing is to have more population,  another is to mobilize, train and arm properly an army - a very different exercise. There are reports of pieces of equipment including tanks that come from WW II stocks. If you want to understand the difference, you can see this video.

The fact that Putin has had to implement forcible conscription and put forward all short of legislation such as accepting people who are pretty much crazies, threatening prison and loosing citizenship,...tells you how difficult may be to go from "population" to "army".

Of course the estimates of losses are all over the place, but the consensus seems to be that artillery brings the most casualties in this conflict, and so far Russia has fired more artillery shells than Ukraine (there are reports that RU scaled back now but is either still outpacing Ukraine by a bit or both sides fire equal amounts of shells now). RU has also been firing exponentially more missiles to the rear, UA only now just started to fire on Crimea (which as you pointed out is considered breakthrough in UA), and UA is pretty much forbidden from attacking inside Russia elsewhere with provided missiles. Judging by videos and reports, drone attacks have been at par at first but Russia seems to have scaled up faster now. UA had more anti-tank weapons and lit up more thanks in the begging of the conflict.

To achieve higher kill rate, from your link, the US coalition strength was "Over 950,000 soldiers" and Iraq at "Over 650,000 soldiers" so they had overwhelming manpower, and a total control of airspace, both of which Ukraine lacks. Are you seriously trying to compare Ukraine to USA and Russia to Iraq, and claim that resourceful uber Ukrainian super soldiers (and ghosts of Kyiv) sustained an average kill rate of 5:1 for continuous 19 month? And will now increase that ratio even further to over 5 RU killed for every 1 UA loss, with some groundbreaking gamechanger weapon? I mean i saw anecdotal reports that Russians were attacking with shovels as Ukrainians are mowing them down with machine guns, but surely no one actually believed that right? Maybe Ukraine could achieve such odds against indigenous tribesman of amazon or Papua New Guinea, but the sober reality is that there's just no weapon in existence that would allow Ukraine to achieve such ratios against Russia. That's why no one really thought that Ukraine could defeat Russia on the battlefield. Objectively, UA's only realistic chance was for economical/political collapse inside RU, but we now see that China would not allow that to happen.

Russia dodges G7 price cap sanctions on most of its oil exports

Russia has succeeded in avoiding G7 sanctions on most of its oil exports, a shift in trade flows that will boost the Kremlin’s revenues as crude rises towards $100 a barrel.

Almost three-quarters of all seaborne Russian crude flows travelled without western insurance in August, a lever used to enforce the G7’s $60-a-barrel oil price cap, according to an analysis of shipping and insurance records by the Financial Times.

That is up from about 50 per cent this spring, according to data from freight analytics company Kpler and insurance companies. The rise implies that Moscow is becoming more adept at circumventing the cap, allowing it to sell more of its oil at prices closer to international market rates.

The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has estimated that the steady increase in crude prices since July, combined with Russia’s success in reducing the discount on its own oil, means that the country’s oil revenues are likely to be at least $15bn higher for 2023 than they would have been.

The shift is a double blow for western efforts to restrict Russia’s revenues from oil sales — which make up the biggest part of the Kremlin’s budget — following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Not only is a higher proportion of Russian oil being sold outside the cap, but Moscow’s increasing independence as a seller has coincided with a strong rally in oil prices, which topped $95 a barrel for the first time in 13 months this week.

Now back to the real world,

Women with a medical or pharmaceutical education must register at military enlistment offices from Oct. 1, Fedir Venislavskyi, President Volodymyr Zelensky's representative in parliament, said on Sept. 7.

This will mean that these women, like Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60, will not be able to leave the country without special permission.

Under martial law, they must stay in Ukraine as they may be called up at any moment for military service.

According to the report, amendments to the law were made on Aug. 18 and entered into force on Aug. 25.

From now on, people with clinically cured tuberculosis, viral hepatitis,  slowly progressing blood diseases, thyroid gland diseases with minor functional disorders, and those who are HIV-positive but without symptoms, are considered still fit for military service.

In addition, people suffering from mild mental disorders, neurotic disorders, slowly progressive diseases of the central nervous system and others have been added to the list.

On Aug. 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a mass review of decisions by military medical commissions to issue medical certificates of disability or unfitness for military service, which have been made since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

[paxmao]

[lots of stuff...]


Of course the estimates of losses are all over the place, but the consensus seems to be that artillery brings the most casualties in this conflict, and so far Russia has fired more artillery shells than Ukraine (there are reports that RU scaled back now but is either still outpacing Ukraine by a bit or both sides fire equal amounts of shells now). RU has also been firing exponentially more missiles to the rear, UA only now just started to fire on Crimea (which as you pointed out is considered breakthrough in UA), and UA is pretty much forbidden from attacking inside Russia elsewhere with provided missiles. Judging by videos and reports, drone attacks have been at par at first but Russia seems to have scaled up faster now. UA had more anti-tank weapons and lit up more thanks in the begging of the conflict.

To achieve higher kill rate, from your link, the US coalition strength was "Over 950,000 soldiers" and Iraq at "Over 650,000 soldiers" so they had overwhelming manpower, and a total control of airspace, both of which Ukraine lacks. Are you seriously trying to compare Ukraine to USA and Russia to Iraq, and claim that resourceful uber Ukrainian super soldiers (and ghosts of Kyiv) sustained an average kill rate of 5:1 for continuous 19 month? And will now increase that ratio even further to over 5 RU killed for every 1 UA loss, with some groundbreaking gamechanger weapon? I mean i saw anecdotal reports that Russians were attacking with shovels as Ukrainians are mowing them down with machine guns, but surely no one actually believed that right? Maybe Ukraine could achieve such odds against indigenous tribesman of amazon or Papua New Guinea, but the sober reality is that there's just no weapon in existence that would allow Ukraine to achieve such ratios against Russia. That's why no one really thought that Ukraine could defeat Russia on the battlefield. Objectively, UA's only realistic chance was for economical/political collapse inside RU, but we now see that China would not allow that to happen.

Russia dodges G7 price cap sanctions on most of its oil exports

Russia has succeeded in avoiding G7 sanctions on most of its oil exports, a shift in trade flows that will boost the Kremlin’s revenues as crude rises towards $100 a barrel.

Almost three-quarters of all seaborne Russian crude flows travelled without western insurance in August, a lever used to enforce the G7’s $60-a-barrel oil price cap, according to an analysis of shipping and insurance records by the Financial Times.

That is up from about 50 per cent this spring, according to data from freight analytics company Kpler and insurance companies. The rise implies that Moscow is becoming more adept at circumventing the cap, allowing it to sell more of its oil at prices closer to international market rates.

The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has estimated that the steady increase in crude prices since July, combined with Russia’s success in reducing the discount on its own oil, means that the country’s oil revenues are likely to be at least $15bn higher for 2023 than they would have been.

The shift is a double blow for western efforts to restrict Russia’s revenues from oil sales — which make up the biggest part of the Kremlin’s budget — following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Not only is a higher proportion of Russian oil being sold outside the cap, but Moscow’s increasing independence as a seller has coincided with a strong rally in oil prices, which topped $95 a barrel for the first time in 13 months this week.

Now back to the real world,

Women with a medical or pharmaceutical education must register at military enlistment offices from Oct. 1, Fedir Venislavskyi, President Volodymyr Zelensky's representative in parliament, said on Sept. 7.

This will mean that these women, like Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60, will not be able to leave the country without special permission.

Under martial law, they must stay in Ukraine as they may be called up at any moment for military service.

According to the report, amendments to the law were made on Aug. 18 and entered into force on Aug. 25.

From now on, people with clinically cured tuberculosis, viral hepatitis,  slowly progressing blood diseases, thyroid gland diseases with minor functional disorders, and those who are HIV-positive but without symptoms, are considered still fit for military service.

In addition, people suffering from mild mental disorders, neurotic disorders, slowly progressive diseases of the central nervous system and others have been added to the list.

On Aug. 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a mass review of decisions by military medical commissions to issue medical certificates of disability or unfitness for military service, which have been made since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

No I am comparing Ruzzia with Ruzzia. They shelled more, had more manpower, more equipment, better air forces and yet... they lost Kherson and the region. Is this real life enough for you?

Another of those funny syllogisms that you frequently fall into:"Ruzzia shells more, shells kill, ergo Ruzzia kills more". HIMARS has been a game changer, you speak about volume of shelling, but I will take a HIMARS rather than 30 pieces of Soviet equipment shooting with rusty barrels and likely to miss a target by 20 meters or more (which is actually the case in the front). The quality counts - the reports speak of more than 25 Ruzzian artillery pieces destroyed per day in artillery duels. Guess what is destroying them?

I think that many weapons have been a game changer (e.g. drone economics) and before you say anything about mines, notice that these do not fly and do not change anything... unless you are still WW II gaming.

But perhaps the clear proof of what is happening, and that is actually reality, is that Ruzzia has stopped any minimally significant gain while Ukraine is taking territory. That is what is happening "in real life".

Re recruiting, I have that information yes... but it is a duma decree, plus some sources...

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-recruiting-soldiers-mental-asylum-ukraine-war-1739963

Russia Recruits Soldiers From Mental Health Unit to Make Up Troop Shortfall

F16 will also change the game. Those GBUs modified to "fly" may be just to risky to launch any longer.

All these things together are effectively game changers. Also for Ukraine, as attacking in large formations or with over abundance of mechanized means is no longer a good option.

[BADecker]

~

F16 will also change the game. Those GBUs modified to "fly" may be just to risky to launch any longer.

All these things together are effectively game changers. Also for Ukraine, as attacking in large formations or with over abundance of mechanized means is no longer a good option.

You forget one major thing regarding the F16s, In the past Russia had no reason to maintain a technologically competitive war force. But since the US is stubbornly pushing Nato's growth, and since the US won't back down regarding treaties to stop this, Russia is pushing its own growth in every way.

By now Russia's military growth acceleration has more than doubled; it might even have tripled since the beginning of the war. In the same time, the US and Nato, because of the way they gave their military toys to Ukraine only to lose them, are far behind Russia in rebuilding their military strength.

Russia doesn't want a major war. But she has been bolstering her relations with BRICS countries, and with the 41 (or so) countries who want to join BRICS. These countries should start by kicking the US military bases off their lands, and see what the US wants to do about it.

[paxmao]

~

F16 will also change the game. Those GBUs modified to "fly" may be just to risky to launch any longer.

All these things together are effectively game changers. Also for Ukraine, as attacking in large formations or with over abundance of mechanized means is no longer a good option.

You forget one major thing regarding the F16s, In the past Russia had no reason to maintain a technologically competitive war force. But since the US is stubbornly pushing Nato's growth, and since the US won't back down regarding treaties to stop this, Russia is pushing its own growth in every way.

By now Russia's military growth acceleration has more than doubled; it might even have tripled since the beginning of the war. In the same time, the US and Nato, because of the way they gave their military toys to Ukraine only to lose them, are far behind Russia in rebuilding their military strength.

Russia doesn't want a major war. But she has been bolstering her relations with BRICS countries, and with the 41 (or so) countries who want to join BRICS. These countries should start by kicking the US military bases off their lands, and see what the US wants to do about it.

You are thinking of Ruzzia as the Soviet Union, they are not even half of what it was during the soviet period. Gunshells sure... they can produce, basic artillery, low tech drones, a couple of hundred T90 per year, a couple of hundred of missiles (IF at all),... Certainly not at the rate they have to if trying to sustain a high intensity war.

But - planes such as the ILs destroyed by drones, S-400 systems like the two recently destroyed, ships like the ones they have lost or planes like the ones that they do not even dare to use in the frontline (yes... Sukoy, I am talking to you),... that is gone for quite a few years if they are ever to come back. Billions of technologically advanced products.

RE BRICS, well, you know...

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23/

Russia cannot meet arms delivery commitments because of war, Indian Air Force says
...
Russia is unable to deliver vital defence supplies it had committed to India's military because of the war in Ukraine, the Indian Air Force (IAF) says.

New Delhi has been worried that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 could affect military supplies from India's largest source of defence equipment. The IAF statement is the first official confirmation of such shortfalls.

The IAF statement was made to a parliamentiary committee, which published it on its website on Tuesday. An IAF representative told the panel Russia had planned a "major delivery" this year that will not take place.

Looks like production may not be ramping up in everything uh?

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/9/8/g20-summit-is-india-breaking-up-with-russia

G20 Summit: Is India breaking up with Russia?
...
India is unlikely to formally break up with Russia anytime soon. But some experts warn that their friendship has grown into a liability for New Delhi’s geopolitical ambitions, including as a trustworthy peacemaker in the current war in Ukraine. And the trajectory of the India-Russia relationship is clear: It is in steady decline, while the Modi government has bolstered ties with the West.
..

RE Brazil...

“The Security Council has been progressively losing its credibility. This frailty is the specific result of actions from its permanent members who wage unauthorized wars or regime change. Its paralysis is the most eloquent proof of the urgent need to reform it, which will bring it greater representation and efficacy.”

This is Lula da Silva speaking at the United Nations. It does not sound like in support of an illegal war from Ruzzia does it?

[suchmoon]

Achieving even kills is crazy devastating for Ukraine, simply because of population difference. After loosing the territory with the people on them, and considering everyone that left, UA population is at less than 30MM, while Russia is at 150MM. Meaning with everything else being equal, UA needs to sustain 5x more drones than RU just to stay equal and have a chance to freeze the conflict at current lines. Put in another way, even if Ukraine somehow manages to achieve 4 kills for every 1 loss they're still doomed to loose. That's why to objective outside observer Ukraine's position is futile and set to fail from the start, and no weapon (outside some weapon of mass destruction) can change that.  
Same with USA (335MM) vs China (1.413MM), US would need to sustain over 4x kills just to "level" the playing field.

This gotta be the stupidest math in this thread so far, and that's a high (or is it low?) bar to clear.