No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream?

[DrBeer]

The correct answer is this:
- In highly developed countries, there is a high probability that there will be a dramatic reduction in the production and sales of PERSONAL vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. There are all the conditions for this - an acceptable income of the majority of the population to replace/buy hybrid/electric cars, a developed infrastructure for electric cars.
- In other countries, there will be a trend, but there will not be a quick transition. The reasons are exactly the opposite - insufficient income level of citizens, lagging behind the infrastructure of generation and delivery of electricity for cars of mass use.

There is more to why this adaptation of electronic cars will be difficult in less developed countries, it's not that some individuals don't have the money to purchase this vehicles to follow the trend but where to use it becomes a challenge due to bad roads. Most of these hybrid cars can only be use where there is good roads and source of electricity and the less developed countries are always having this problem of having 24/7 power supply, how will they use these cars, they don't have good infrastructure to begin with, I can't imagine cases of emergency and no source of power in the car, it will be a terrible thing to observed.

The dream of no petrol cars might be effective and soar in developed countries but I don't think so for third world countries that are struggling to feed and cure poverty rate, because it has been proven that Electric cars are even more costly than petrol cars. Many people will settle for the lessers price even in developed countries where the trend will be available.

Yes, I totally agree !
In addition to financial and technological problems, there are infrastructural and operational problems. But there is a solution here too, in favor of China
China produces a lot of budget electric cars, with very simple characteristics, and not very demanding to the "environment". I'll immediately assume that many "non-budget" carmakers will also be entering this market - the market of budget electric cars, and it is even possible mass construction of plants for the production of basic units and plants for large-scale assembly of such products. This is also profitable - the demand is high, the margin is not large - but the sales volumes can be very high. But...it takes time

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[ringgo96]

Currently electric cars have become a serious threat to diesel and gasoline cars, and I believe that by 2035 everything will become a reality that there are no more diesel or gasoline cars, all countries will use electric cars, let alone the government has issued a law, of course this is a serious problem they want to realize, but the problem will be the average electric car price is very expensive so people who are economy class will be more difficult to own a car, So this problem must also be adjusted.

[Fortify]

Many governments are moving to push hard to reduce sales of diesel and petrol cars, the European Parliament has officially approved a law banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the EU from 2035

The landmark law will require carmakers to cut down CO2 emissions by 100 percent.
The 100 percent cut in CO2 emissions from new cars sold would make it impossible to sell petrol or diesel-powered cars in the 27-country bloc. The law that comes into effect in phases that will require a 55 percent cut in CO2 emissions for new cars starting 2030, which is a much higher target in comparison to the current 37.5 percent.

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.
So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

Honestly it feels totally unrealistic to expect such a large shift in such a short period of time. There is a gradual shift over and the balance is definitely tipping towards electric cars, at least in the most developed countries around the world, but they are currently still super expensive and out of reach of most people. The second hand market in electric vehicles is still in it's infancy and the leaps in battery technology is excellent but varied. There is a whole swath of different charging technology that needs to become more standardized and masses of infrastructure needs a rethink to accommodate it. In many countries the actual ability to charge such a volume of electric cars seem so incomprehensible and difficult right now.

[disconnectme]

For now, I believe this is a pipe dream, the question that comes to mind is that what are these people pushing this agenda after, we did not ban horses when the gasoline car was invented, why can't they let the market forces dictate this. if they think the electric cars are better and sound, the market will align with this thought with time. we have had so many advancements in technology over the years and people were not forced into making a choice, the better ones always win.

[molsewid]

For now, I believe this is a pipe dream, the question that comes to mind is that what are these people pushing this agenda after, we did not ban horses when the gasoline car was invented, why can't they let the market forces dictate this. if they think the electric cars are better and sound, the market will align with this thought with time. we have had so many advancements in technology over the years and people were not forced into making a choice, the better ones always win.

It is possible since almost all of the things now are electronics and most of the mechants now accepts crypto , the only thing that didn't accept crypto so much is the govt but all in all we can say that it is reality that when 2035 arrives there will be less car fueled by gas or anything and the price arises each day but again it will not come easily, some people cannot accepts innovation properly.

[AmoreJaz]

For now, I believe this is a pipe dream, the question that comes to mind is that what are these people pushing this agenda after, we did not ban horses when the gasoline car was invented, why can't they let the market forces dictate this. if they think the electric cars are better and sound, the market will align with this thought with time. we have had so many advancements in technology over the years and people were not forced into making a choice, the better ones always win.

It is possible since almost all of the things now are electronics and most of the mechants now accepts crypto , the only thing that didn't accept crypto so much is the govt but all in all we can say that it is reality that when 2035 arrives there will be less car fueled by gas or anything and the price arises each day but again it will not come easily, some people cannot accepts innovation properly.

this goal is achievable in most european small countries, which have been onto this goal for years already. so more than a decade of preparation i believe is enough for them to achieve such target. however, if the country is quite big and there are so many stakeholders stopping such mission, it won't happen even after so many decades of preparation.

let's take for example of these 7 countries who are serious to say goodbye to fossil-fuel powered cars with corresponding population
https://futurism.com/these-7-countries-want-to-say-goodbye-to-fossil-fuel-based-cars
germany - 83.31M
norway - 5.54M
india - 1.42B
france - 68.04M
the UK. -68.95M
netherlands - 17.86M
china - 1.455B

which one do you think has high probability of achieving such target? definitely, the first country which will achieve such feat is norway. coming second is netherlands. just my guess here.

[flyingcarpet]

For now, I believe this is a pipe dream, the question that comes to mind is that what are these people pushing this agenda after, we did not ban horses when the gasoline car was invented, why can't they let the market forces dictate this. if they think the electric cars are better and sound, the market will align with this thought with time. we have had so many advancements in technology over the years and people were not forced into making a choice, the better ones always win.

The market has always found its way. No matter how much interference, innovation always comes if people who want innovation insist on what they want. But, as you said, the arrival of an innovation does not mean that the old one is not used. We don't have to make a choice.

What we need will come to us in time. As I said, time will tell the answers to these questions. The date given in the title may not be correct because the automobile market is a huge market that covers the whole world.

[STT]

average electric car price is very expensive

Quite a few cannot buy the brand new petrol car either, it would be a waste to them as even a ten year old car is reliable enough to work and do the job just fine.  If we compare the electric car market secondhand also, its similar in that prices can be affordable.  Some think electric car cannot last ten years but in fact they do with some capacity reduction, most people driving through a town will be fine for this type of cheap usage second hand.  The larger challenge is going to be long haul and trucks is something Im not so sure about.   
  Overall technology will keep improving and battery technology, its quite feasible for improvements to filter through the market to normal average budget people.

[SmartGold01]

So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

There is every tendency it could be achieved because I believe that they are more technological enclind, like from the part of my country where CO2 is that common we may find it very difficult for ruling out a diesel and fuel engine cars. The electric engine are more environmental and economical friendly which is far more better and easier to use than C02. As per the price, as time keeps going the more lesser it becomes because usually when a newly products is being flooded in the market there would be a higher demand which could possibly inflate the cost price since is on a higher demand but with time it becomes available as usual vehicle after fuel/diesel might have gotten rid off.

[dothebeats]

So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

There is every tendency it could be achieved because I believe that they are more technological enclind, like from the part of my country where CO2 is that common we may find it very difficult for ruling out a diesel and fuel engine cars. The electric engine are more environmental and economical friendly which is far more better and easier to use than C02. As per the price, as time keeps going the more lesser it becomes because usually when a newly products is being flooded in the market there would be a higher demand which could possibly inflate the cost price since is on a higher demand but with time it becomes available as usual vehicle after fuel/diesel might have gotten rid off.

Technological advancement isn't the hindrance, but rather the companies that are built around petrol. These guys will try their hardest to prevent electric car domination, and it will be the hardest battle that electric car manufacturer will encounter. People are actually raring to buy electric cars, and are actually opting for the said cleaner alternative for transportation. But what can they do if the governments themselves are not cooperating with this advancement?

[icalical]

I own both electric and petrol car, not the high-end/flagship one like Tesla, BMW, or Benz tho, just mid-level car Daihatsu and Hyundai. I can vouch that monthly maintenance for electric car is less demanding and less pricy, my take is that electric car has significantly less liquid involve in their engine. I haven't need to replace the Battery so I don't know the real cost. The cost of petrol vs electric power is also significantly less, but it also because the cost of electricity today is relatively cheaper, so if the electric car become more mainstream and the electricity cost is getting higher, there might be not much of a different.

The EU ambition to remove combustion car completely in 2035 is not impossible, the politic is getting easier every-year, since more government put more concern in environment. What could be the obstacle is the consumer, and definitely petrol and diesel company. If they can jump to the electric power bandwagon and get some money from there, they will definitely try make petrol and diesel at least coexist with the electric car. And they will try their best to make consumer stay with their current more traditional car, even if it needed fearmongering.

[mamesso]

Currently electric cars have become a serious threat to diesel and gasoline cars, and I believe that by 2035 everything will become a reality that there are no more diesel or gasoline cars, all countries will use electric cars, let alone the government has issued a law, of course this is a serious problem they want to realize, but the problem will be the average electric car price is very expensive so people who are economy class will be more difficult to own a car, So this problem must also be adjusted.

Several countries have entered the transition phase from diesel and gasoline cars to electric cars, now that there are many electric cars available on the market, countries are starting to aggressively encourage the use of electric cars that are more environmentally friendly. The year 2035 will probably create a new history in the automotive field where diesel and gasoline cars will disappear from circulation, electric cars are more profitable than ordinary cars, making several countries want to adopt electric cars en masse.

In terms of price, of course, electric cars are priced more expensive when compared to ordinary cars, the battery component is one of the contributing factors. There is no need to worry about the price issue, once it has been adopted en masse there will be car manufacturers producing electric cars at lower prices so that middle and lower economic class people can own cars at affordable prices.

[fruktik]

Currently electric cars have become a serious threat to diesel and gasoline cars, and I believe that by 2035 everything will become a reality that there are no more diesel or gasoline cars, all countries will use electric cars, let alone the government has issued a law, of course this is a serious problem they want to realize, but the problem will be the average electric car price is very expensive so people who are economy class will be more difficult to own a car, So this problem must also be adjusted.

         The time has not yet come when mass demand will appear. When this moment comes, they will immediately begin to offer supported cars. This potential option should be taken into account for those who want to start a business in this direction. This is so, for some reference. It is better to start doing something now, when there is still very little competition, but it will certainly be.
        Yes, there are a lot of problems with electric cars, but they are all solvable and humanity will find their solution over the years.

[bakasabo]

I own both electric and petrol car, not the high-end/flagship one like Tesla, BMW, or Benz tho, just mid-level car Daihatsu and Hyundai. I can vouch that monthly maintenance for electric car is less demanding and less pricy, my take is that electric car has significantly less liquid involve in their engine. I haven't need to replace the Battery so I don't know the real cost. The cost of petrol vs electric power is also significantly less, but it also because the cost of electricity today is relatively cheaper, so if the electric car become more mainstream and the electricity cost is getting higher, there might be not much of a different.

Have you ever tried petrol cars that has compressed or liquefied natural gas modification? They use tiny amount of petrol to start the car, but later switch to natural gas. Natural gas cost twice less than petrol or diesel. Natural gas is cleaner than petrol or diesel. It takes almost same amount of time to fill tank as with petrol or diesel car. You can ride same distance with natural gas as with electric battery. Natural gas modification cost around 1000 EUR, you do need to do engine maintenance every 10-15km. With electric cars you only save on oil change, oil and oil filter. That is like 100-200 EUR twice a year, but the cost of electric battery change plus battery unit will kill all the saving.

[icalical]

I own both electric and petrol car, not the high-end/flagship one like Tesla, BMW, or Benz tho, just mid-level car Daihatsu and Hyundai. I can vouch that monthly maintenance for electric car is less demanding and less pricy, my take is that electric car has significantly less liquid involve in their engine. I haven't need to replace the Battery so I don't know the real cost. The cost of petrol vs electric power is also significantly less, but it also because the cost of electricity today is relatively cheaper, so if the electric car become more mainstream and the electricity cost is getting higher, there might be not much of a different.

Have you ever tried petrol cars that has compressed or liquefied natural gas modification? They use tiny amount of petrol to start the car, but later switch to natural gas. Natural gas cost twice less than petrol or diesel. Natural gas is cleaner than petrol or diesel. It takes almost same amount of time to fill tank as with petrol or diesel car. You can ride same distance with natural gas as with electric battery. Natural gas modification cost around 1000 EUR, you do need to do engine maintenance every 10-15km. With electric cars you only save on oil change, oil and oil filter. That is like 100-200 EUR twice a year, but the cost of electric battery change plus battery unit will kill all the saving.

No, I have never tried, and to be honest this is the first time I have ever heard of this such modification. Are you sure that it needs maintenance for every 10-15km, because that's like half of my one-way commute daily and that's a huge drawback for most people I think.

My car battery replacement cost is estimated to be about $1000 to $1500, and it is guaranteed for 8 years, in those 8 Years span, I only need two times maintenance for the electric cars, and from what I heard it will cost $200-$250 each. For the fuel car, you are right two times maintenance of my petrol car in total is $200 ($100 each) for a year, for 8 Years it's already $1600 I could still save $100, combined with the less money I spent for fuel, and lower tax for electric vehicle, I could save a significant amount of money.

All that estimation is assuming that both cars running well and doesn't need an extra maintenance.

[Pierre 2]

I feel like this is pretty viable/possible for northern, western and central European countries. These countries have the most wealth and strict laws that communities care. But I think its dream for southern and eastern european countries. Southern countries have relaxed law makers in general and people are more care-free. They would keep using their favourite cars. In eastern european countries wealth is dramatically lower so many people won't be able to afford electric cars still. Also electric cars still have range issues that makes people not consider them.

[slapper]

I feel like this is pretty viable/possible for northern, western and central European countries. These countries have the most wealth and strict laws that communities care. But I think its dream for southern and eastern european countries. Southern countries have relaxed law makers in general and people are more care-free. They would keep using their favourite cars. In eastern european countries wealth is dramatically lower so many people won't be able to afford electric cars still. Also electric cars still have range issues that makes people not consider them.

Absolutely agree with you there! If the world were in balance, everyone would drive electric vehicles. Unfortunately, Europe is still a mishmash of divergent elements, much like an incomplete patchwork quilt. Europe's North, West, or Center? In a word, yes! Electric automobiles may soon replace their gas-guzzling counterparts because to the wealthy, their love of laws, and their commitment to the environment. It's like a scene from a science fiction film coming to life right before your eyes.

But how about we head south and east instead? There is some truth to what you are saying. When it comes to accepting such a transformation, the relaxed mentality and "laissez-faire" politics of Southern Europe definitely raise eyebrows. The wealth gap is also a serious issue in Eastern Europe. For some, the price of an electric car may be as much as a prince's ransom. Regarding range anxiety, I understand. The worry is reasonable! It's the equivalent of coming up to a buffet only to learn that they've already ran out of food. Disappointing, to put it mildly!

[DrBeer]

For now, I believe this is a pipe dream, the question that comes to mind is that what are these people pushing this agenda after, we did not ban horses when the gasoline car was invented, why can't they let the market forces dictate this. if they think the electric cars are better and sound, the market will align with this thought with time. we have had so many advancements in technology over the years and people were not forced into making a choice, the better ones always win.

It is possible since almost all of the things now are electronics and most of the mechants now accepts crypto , the only thing that didn't accept crypto so much is the govt but all in all we can say that it is reality that when 2035 arrives there will be less car fueled by gas or anything and the price arises each day but again it will not come easily, some people cannot accepts innovation properly.

this goal is achievable in most european small countries, which have been onto this goal for years already. so more than a decade of preparation i believe is enough for them to achieve such target. however, if the country is quite big and there are so many stakeholders stopping such mission, it won't happen even after so many decades of preparation.

let's take for example of these 7 countries who are serious to say goodbye to fossil-fuel powered cars with corresponding population
https://futurism.com/these-7-countries-want-to-say-goodbye-to-fossil-fuel-based-cars
germany - 83.31M
norway - 5.54M
india - 1.42B
france - 68.04M
the UK. -68.95M
netherlands - 17.86M
china - 1.455B

which one do you think has high probability of achieving such target? definitely, the first country which will achieve such feat is norway. coming second is netherlands. just my guess here.

You gave a good example and a good suggestion. But there is quite a logical justification there - Both Norway (I love Norway's fjords!) and the Netherlands are countries where historically the past few years, or rather decades, have been active in the search for and implementation of alternative energy sources, as well as the rejection of hydrocarbons. And it makes sense that they are leaders in this direction, and will be the first to start mass migration. Plus - what I'm talking about - the standard of living and income of the citizens of these countries is very good, and they can afford it ! And of course - infrastructure, roads,...

[Uruhara]

I feel like this is pretty viable/possible for northern, western and central European countries. These countries have the most wealth and strict laws that communities care. But I think its dream for southern and eastern european countries. Southern countries have relaxed law makers in general and people are more care-free. They would keep using their favourite cars. In eastern european countries wealth is dramatically lower so many people won't be able to afford electric cars still. Also electric cars still have range issues that makes people not consider them.

Besides that it's a problem the development of infrastructure for charging electric cars in all regions in each country also requires a lot of time which may not be completed in just 10-20 years for developing countries. But for developed countries, development may still be accelerated, especially if it is a European country that has a lot of wealth, the majority of which are developed countries. But in Asia I haven't seen development on such a rapid scale. everything is running slowly limited state budget.

[bakasabo]

I own both electric and petrol car, not the high-end/flagship one like Tesla, BMW, or Benz tho, just mid-level car Daihatsu and Hyundai. I can vouch that monthly maintenance for electric car is less demanding and less pricy, my take is that electric car has significantly less liquid involve in their engine. I haven't need to replace the Battery so I don't know the real cost. The cost of petrol vs electric power is also significantly less, but it also because the cost of electricity today is relatively cheaper, so if the electric car become more mainstream and the electricity cost is getting higher, there might be not much of a different.

Have you ever tried petrol cars that has compressed or liquefied natural gas modification? They use tiny amount of petrol to start the car, but later switch to natural gas. Natural gas cost twice less than petrol or diesel. Natural gas is cleaner than petrol or diesel. It takes almost same amount of time to fill tank as with petrol or diesel car. You can ride same distance with natural gas as with electric battery. Natural gas modification cost around 1000 EUR, you do need to do engine maintenance every 10-15km. With electric cars you only save on oil change, oil and oil filter. That is like 100-200 EUR twice a year, but the cost of electric battery change plus battery unit will kill all the saving.

No, I have never tried, and to be honest this is the first time I have ever heard of this such modification. Are you sure that it needs maintenance for every 10-15km, because that's like half of my one-way commute daily and that's a huge drawback for most people I think.

My car battery replacement cost is estimated to be about $1000 to $1500, and it is guaranteed for 8 years, in those 8 Years span, I only need two times maintenance for the electric cars, and from what I heard it will cost $200-$250 each. For the fuel car, you are right two times maintenance of my petrol car in total is $200 ($100 each) for a year, for 8 Years it's already $1600 I could still save $100, combined with the less money I spent for fuel, and lower tax for electric vehicle, I could save a significant amount of money.

All that estimation is assuming that both cars running well and doesn't need an extra maintenance.

Sorry, it is 10-15k km. My bad. Cars that run on natural gas were popular in Europe for some time. The car consumes slightly more gas than regular petrol, but the price of the gas was 4 times lower than petrol. Often such modifications were installed on a car with high volume engines, like 3-5l. The trick was that you still got that V8 or V10 sound, but spend on fuel like you have 1.0l Yaris.

Another reason why I see that switch to only electric cars is gonna be far in future is the range electric cars can cover. How many km can you cover with your electric car with one battery charge? With my diesel sedan I can make around 1000km with 60l of diesel and spend 5min to refill to make another 1000km. Travelling with electric cars seems complicated today.