No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream?

[bakasabo]

What about the case when you ran out of energy and closest charging station is kilometers away? With regular fuel, you can just walk to gas station, get canister and return. In case there are no cars the are passing by. With EV, you cant just get a small battery at charging station. I agree that this case is more like an exception. But there are cases when charge meter gets a bug and shows you incorrect info. With cars that runs on fuel it is a bit easier. Even if you ran out of fuel, you can still use your AC battery to heat the car (in case you travel not alone), leave it with warning lights and walk to fuel station. With EV, once the battery is empty, the car is just a piece of aluminum, plastic and fabric.

I've read about such case when a guy was testing a Tesla and wanted to see if it really shows the real range. He wanted to push it to the limit.

I don't remember all the numbers and the article was from at least a year ago but he wanted to travel from one town to another and planned the rout a day before. The car showed him that he can go from point  a to point b at full charge with some margin. There was a charging station at point b.
When he was maybe 20km from that spot the car started showing that he won't make it and instead of +10km left it corrected to something like -2 so he thought that maybe the car is wrong and he can make it. After all this was a trip of more than 200km and the car was showing that it will lack 1% charge to make it.

Long story short, he didn't make it and the car shut down in the middle of the street with no charging station nearby, so he went to a hardware store and bought the cheapest gasoline power generator and charged it a bit to make that 2 additional kilometers to his destination.

That sounds expensive. If he had a regular and wanted to run same test, it would cost him around 1 EUR for a 1.5l bottle of water, and the cost of fuel that will fit it.

Instead of having EV only in 2035, it would be better to switch public transport to electric busses. As they operate in city limits, charging or battery issues wont be such a trouble. Everyone will win from that. Manufacturers, as they will have a long lasting contracts with cities. Cities that will be more emission clear.

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[slapper]

Yeah, because everyone will either buy used fossil fuel cars or buy new electric cars that are refueled with electricity that was produced by burning fossil fuels. Unless we discover a different way to generate electricity, we will come to the conclusion that our energy demands outstrip our energy production. The discovery would have to be something amazing though, like cold fusion.

I mean you can try slapping a solar panel on your Tesla but it won't generate enough electricity in a day to move a car.

2035 seems optimistic. Especially with with all the undiscovered oil reserves. Who needs a life-nurturing environment when you can save money?

The current EV technology causes more damage to the environment when compared to the gasoline vehicles. Mining Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel has devastated ecologically sensitive areas of the world. If you have a doubt regarding this, then please visit Norilsk or the Democratic Republic of Congo. And it is not just the batteries. Most of the electricity that is used to run these EVs come from burning fossil fuels - natural gas, or even more polluting fuels such as coal, lignite or naphtha. EVs seems to be more polluting than gasoline vehicles at this point.

It is undeniablethat nickel, cobalt, and lithium extraction has a negative impact on the environment. Two striking instances of ecological destruction are the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Norilsk. But surely there's no harm in pushing the boundaries, giving the situation a closer look, and delving further into the long-term consequences?

Renewables are seeing a fast transformation in the field of energy production, signaling a change. It is important to weigh the potential for cleaner, sustainable energy against the short-term environmental costs associated with EV production. Although it is a transitory problem, EVs emit more pollution than gasoline-powered cars. The environmental equation will probably shift in favor of EVs as clean energy sources are gradually deployed.

[Litzki1990]

This seems like a dream to us, but when the supply of diesel petrol will decrease, people will be more focused on electric cars. In 2035, people of the world may buy more electric cars, but even in 2035, I don't think diesel or petrol cars will stop selling. Sales of diesel and petrol vehicles may decline slightly but will not stop completely. I think the demand for sports cars will always remain in the world and most of the sports cars are petrol engines. If an electric car manufacturing company builds a supercar or a sports car, it will not get much market because by sports car we mean very high speed, several hundred kilometers speed within braking moment, these are possible only in petrol engine.

[pixie85]

That sounds expensive. If he had a regular and wanted to run same test, it would cost him around 1 EUR for a 1.5l bottle of water, and the cost of fuel that will fit it.

Instead of having EV only in 2035, it would be better to switch public transport to electric busses. As they operate in city limits, charging or battery issues wont be such a trouble. Everyone will win from that. Manufacturers, as they will have a long lasting contracts with cities. Cities that will be more emission clear.

This was done only for the test and the guy was a journalist, but it can happen to a normal user. I don't read about electric cars or cars in general enough to come across more of these stories.

You're right. Busses drive around all day and generate enormous amounts of fumes when compared to a car because they drive very inefficiently. They start driving, gain speed, brake, come to a stop and repeat the whole thing. All that with high mass and bad aerodynamic efficiency.

The only thing that makes me angry about electric cars is that they want to tax all of us who don't have enough money to buy one so that we stop driving at all. In other words, you're rich, you buy electric car and drive like you used to. You're poor, we're going to make you pay for your old car so much that you'll either have to sell it and ride a scooter or something or you'll have to take a loan to get an electric car.

[Sithara007]

It is undeniablethat nickel, cobalt, and lithium extraction has a negative impact on the environment. Two striking instances of ecological destruction are the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Norilsk. But surely there's no harm in pushing the boundaries, giving the situation a closer look, and delving further into the long-term consequences?

Renewables are seeing a fast transformation in the field of energy production, signaling a change. It is important to weigh the potential for cleaner, sustainable energy against the short-term environmental costs associated with EV production. Although it is a transitory problem, EVs emit more pollution than gasoline-powered cars. The environmental equation will probably shift in favor of EVs as clean energy sources are gradually deployed.

How do you suggest making the EVs more environmentally friendly? For the last 2 decades or so, I haven't noticed any significant improvement in the battery technology. The same type of batteries (Lithium-Nickel-Cobalt) are being used even now. Unless someone come up with a better technology, which uses metals and minerals that are more readily available in the earth's crust, this issue will persist. But given the huge amount of investment currently being poured into Lithium and Cobalt mining, I am not sure whether any of the major EV manufacturers are even considering a need for a different type of EV battery. 

[DrBeer]

This seems like a dream to us, but when the supply of diesel petrol will decrease, people will be more focused on electric cars. In 2035, people of the world may buy more electric cars, but even in 2035, I don't think diesel or petrol cars will stop selling. Sales of diesel and petrol vehicles may decline slightly but will not stop completely. I think the demand for sports cars will always remain in the world and most of the sports cars are petrol engines. If an electric car manufacturing company builds a supercar or a sports car, it will not get much market because by sports car we mean very high speed, several hundred kilometers speed within braking moment, these are possible only in petrol engine.

There are two pieces of good news:
1. Many manufacturers in many countries have started to produce mass and cheap electric cars. Yes, while most of them are for the "urban cycle", i.e. with a range of up to 150 km, but this situation is already much better. Objectively speaking, less than half of car owners have a need to travel over this distance.
2. Today, electric cars have already "overtaken" gasoline sports cars in terms of acceleration speed. The efficiency of an internal combustion engine will never catch up with the efficiency and dynamics of an electric motor. And now electric motors have become compact and the technology is acceptable for the supercar or race car format 

[bakasabo]

There are two pieces of good news:
1. Many manufacturers in many countries have started to produce mass and cheap electric cars. Yes, while most of them are for the "urban cycle", i.e. with a range of up to 150 km, but this situation is already much better. Objectively speaking, less than half of car owners have a need to travel over this distance.
2. Today, electric cars have already "overtaken" gasoline sports cars in terms of acceleration speed. The efficiency of an internal combustion engine will never catch up with the efficiency and dynamics of an electric motor. And now electric motors have become compact and the technology is acceptable for the supercar or race car format 

Frankly speaking, that is not much of an advantage to consider buying EV. What are urban speed limits ? 30-50-70km/h. What is the point of beating car with internal combustion engine in acceleration for few second, when they will meet at the traffic light. Racing in the city area? Not the best place to figure out whos car is faster.

Speaking honestly, I would have bought a small and cheap EV with urban range of 150km, if they really be cheap. They are cheap only compared with premium and middle range EV segment. But on a distance, a small car like Toyota IQ, Hyundai i10, VW up are much affordable. Of course there are EV that has same price, like Citroen Ami. But their look forces to puke. Cheapest EV cost 20-25k EUR. If it is a city car, it wont cover much distance. Hyundai i10 cost around 15k. EV car will die faster than it will make its owner to economy on fuel and liquids those 5-10k EUR difference.

[Iroh]

This seems like a dream to us, but when the supply of diesel petrol will decrease, people will be more focused on electric cars. In 2035, people of the world may buy more electric cars, but even in 2035, I don't think diesel or petrol cars will stop selling. Sales of diesel and petrol vehicles may decline slightly but will not stop completely. I think the demand for sports cars will always remain in the world and most of the sports cars are petrol engines. If an electric car manufacturing company builds a supercar or a sports car, it will not get much market because by sports car we mean very high speed, several hundred kilometers speed within braking moment, these are possible only in petrol engine.

Super fast cars aren’t only possible with petrol powered engines. If we can have bullet trains that are also super fast and are electric powered, sport cars aren’t really far behind. It has been quite the challenge to get people to buy and drive electric vehicles.
Petrol powered vehicles would most likely still be available in the market by 2035 as there would be still be quite the demand for it. Electric powered vehicles could in the distant future, majorly replace petrol powered vehicles but for now, a lot of people are still resistant to change.

[DrBeer]

There are two pieces of good news:
1. Many manufacturers in many countries have started to produce mass and cheap electric cars. Yes, while most of them are for the "urban cycle", i.e. with a range of up to 150 km, but this situation is already much better. Objectively speaking, less than half of car owners have a need to travel over this distance.
2. Today, electric cars have already "overtaken" gasoline sports cars in terms of acceleration speed. The efficiency of an internal combustion engine will never catch up with the efficiency and dynamics of an electric motor. And now electric motors have become compact and the technology is acceptable for the supercar or race car format  

Frankly speaking, that is not much of an advantage to consider buying EV. What are urban speed limits ? 30-50-70km/h. What is the point of beating car with internal combustion engine in acceleration for few second, when they will meet at the traffic light. Racing in the city area? Not the best place to figure out whos car is faster.

Speaking honestly, I would have bought a small and cheap EV with urban range of 150km, if they really be cheap. They are cheap only compared with premium and middle range EV segment. But on a distance, a small car like Toyota IQ, Hyundai i10, VW up are much affordable. Of course there are EV that has same price, like Citroen Ami. But their look forces to puke. Cheapest EV cost 20-25k EUR. If it is a city car, it wont cover much distance. Hyundai i10 cost around 15k. EV car will die faster than it will make its owner to economy on fuel and liquids those 5-10k EUR difference.

I'll start with not the main thing, but where I agree absolutely - DESIGN. Or rather ANTI DESIGN  That now design departments of many automakers create, for this we should be punished Fiat Multipla is very attractive against their background
Well here only on trends can be written off, as nobody forbids manufacturers to make more sane, even ascetic design, and it does not require super expenses. In a word, the question is more philosophical....

The second question is what is an "expensive/inexpensive car".
Now on the market there are many electric cars in the price range from 15,000 to 35,000 dollars. In general, they are no different from cars of the same class with internal combustion engines. I agree - 10 years ago the difference was noticeably greater, with not a very large range of electric cars. Now everything you want - from compact city cars to "parket crossovers". And not a few models in the above range.

Yes, the only thing I will confirm is that yes, in a noticeable number of countries there are still problems with the infrastructure to service electric cars. And there is a whole layer of countries where people drive one car for 20-30 years, simply not being able to buy a new one....

PS About the "unique design" - let me remind everyone of the boom of the world car industry in 1950-1960, there were a lot of "amazing" designs at that time too 

[Mahanton]

This seems like a dream to us, but when the supply of diesel petrol will decrease, people will be more focused on electric cars. In 2035, people of the world may buy more electric cars, but even in 2035, I don't think diesel or petrol cars will stop selling. Sales of diesel and petrol vehicles may decline slightly but will not stop completely. I think the demand for sports cars will always remain in the world and most of the sports cars are petrol engines. If an electric car manufacturing company builds a supercar or a sports car, it will not get much market because by sports car we mean very high speed, several hundred kilometers speed within braking moment, these are possible only in petrol engine.

Super fast cars aren’t only possible with petrol powered engines. If we can have bullet trains that are also super fast and are electric powered, sport cars aren’t really far behind. It has been quite the challenge to get people to buy and drive electric vehicles.
Petrol powered vehicles would most likely still be available in the market by 2035 as there would be still be quite the demand for it. Electric powered vehicles could in the distant future, majorly replace petrol powered vehicles but for now, a lot of people are still resistant to change.

Speaking about Tesla's top speed or simply with electric powered vehicles? Then watch this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpLRQdB76fw
https://www.way.com/blog/what-is-the-fastest-tesla/


Tesla Car Model    Top Speed    Acceleration (0-60 mph)    Torque (lb-ft)    Horsepower (HP)
Model S Plaid    200 mph    2.0 sec                            1,050 lb-ft         1,020 hp
Model S           155 mph    2.4-2.5 sec                    310 lb-ft         778 hp
Model 3           162 mph    3.5 sec                            302 lb-ft         450 hp
Model X           155 mph    3.8 sec                            487 lb-ft         670 hp
Model Y           135 mph    4.6 sec                            376 lb-ft         384 hp
Source: https://www.way.com/blog/what-is-the-fastest-tesla/

These numbers are insane.People would really be just skeptical when it comes to battery or simply the maintenance or simply with the charging stations.

[terrific]

How do you suggest making the EVs more environmentally friendly? For the last 2 decades or so, I haven't noticed any significant improvement in the battery technology. The same type of batteries (Lithium-Nickel-Cobalt) are being used even now. Unless someone come up with a better technology, which uses metals and minerals that are more readily available in the earth's crust, this issue will persist. But given the huge amount of investment currently being poured into Lithium and Cobalt mining, I am not sure whether any of the major EV manufacturers are even considering a need for a different type of EV battery. 

I agree, if the diesel/petrol cars are emitting more pollution and contributed to it. There's also the side effect of having more batteries and electric cars.
People just don't see this because all they think that it's cleaner, safer, and economical. But if they will look at it, the system and design of the car just actually changed but with its environmental impact, they're also different but the affection of it to it is also there negatively.

[STT]

And it is not just the batteries. Most of the electricity that is used to run these EVs come from burning fossil fuels - natural gas,

Natural gas burns cleanly at least but its a fair point that most electric production is via normal carbon based fuels.   Most of China runs off coal powered electric which has ruined the climate in many cities to the point of lower life spans.   That is all true but I still would argue electric cars will continue to increase as a trend and it could be linked to the source of power as mentioned.
  A large factor with renewables of any kind is they dont tend to produce on demand. Solar is tied to the daylight, wind is weather based, hydro power also can be weather based.   All renewables have improved greatly in efficiency and batteries also are advancing, at what point is it useful beyond the basic idea of being an alternative.  I think electric cars are likely to success in line with something basic like Solar efficiency.  If we take the giant gains made in solar power efficiency if the same were true of electric cars, we can be certain they will be a large percentage of transport in future.
    Not everything beyond the horizon is clear but if solar gains are a trend and can relate to the usage of that power, we see that trend continue is a fair conclusion.

[shinratensei_]

This seems like a dream to us, but when the supply of diesel petrol will decrease, people will be more focused on electric cars. In 2035, people of the world may buy more electric cars, but even in 2035, I don't think diesel or petrol cars will stop selling. Sales of diesel and petrol vehicles may decline slightly but will not stop completely. I think the demand for sports cars will always remain in the world and most of the sports cars are petrol engines. If an electric car manufacturing company builds a supercar or a sports car, it will not get much market because by sports car we mean very high speed, several hundred kilometers speed within braking moment, these are possible only in petrol engine.

you're so mistaken if you think electric cars aren't fast, they have potential to overtake current fastest petrol based engine, even tesla already prove that, moreover the reason many car enthusiasts are still staying with sport car that are based on petrol is because the sound, very niche but thats what seeking, they want the sound of engine, which of course if one is environmentally conscious enough they would disregard that sound for the sake of betterment of the environment.
I think in the future there will be many super car based on electric vehicle that coming up, the potential is there, it just needs good infrastructure first and also more advancement in the battery sector and it will be golden.
also there's reason why car manufacturer like BMW has slowly but sure developing their own electric vehicle technology because they know its the future, regardless of many things that still needs to be discussed.

[bakasabo]

The second question is what is an "expensive/inexpensive car".
Now on the market there are many electric cars in the price range from 15,000 to 35,000 dollars. In general, they are no different from cars of the same class with internal combustion engines. I agree - 10 years ago the difference was noticeably greater, with not a very large range of electric cars. Now everything you want - from compact city cars to "parket crossovers". And not a few models in the above range.

I remember how people were used to buy small diesel cars because they were more economical than petrol, but in reality they never get that economy. The difference in consumption between, lets say 1.3-1.6l diesel and petrol is hardly noticeable. It might be only 1-2l per 100km. How many kilometers people cover in city traffic per year? 7-10k? The difference is only around 100-200l per year, while the price of fuel is nearly the same right now. In money equivalent that is less than 400 EUR per year, while new diesel cars cost 2-5k more than petrol. So by the time that economy appears, people already sell the car. With EV, the price is often higher than a diesel. So by the time EV owner starts to get that economy, imo he will be forces to do some maintenance with battery. Which makes me think that this whole tricks isnt about money, but about ecology, which is a huge topic of discussion also.

[Samlucky O]

It could be reality in some parts of the world but not all part. Like some African countries that lack technology advancement. African countries that produces crude oil will find it hard to accept such innovation or even ban inportation of such product, because they think the crude becomes useless to them. Were as it has been there source of lively hood and the wealth of the nation.

In my country youths have invented fueles generator, power supply with crude oil and many others, but they see it as a threat to there imported generator. And never sponsors them in any way. Curruption in Africa is the problem behind the the reason I said, it Will be reality is some parts of the world but not all.

[DrBeer]

The second question is what is an "expensive/inexpensive car".
Now on the market there are many electric cars in the price range from 15,000 to 35,000 dollars. In general, they are no different from cars of the same class with internal combustion engines. I agree - 10 years ago the difference was noticeably greater, with not a very large range of electric cars. Now everything you want - from compact city cars to "parket crossovers". And not a few models in the above range.

I remember how people were used to buy small diesel cars because they were more economical than petrol, but in reality they never get that economy. The difference in consumption between, lets say 1.3-1.6l diesel and petrol is hardly noticeable. It might be only 1-2l per 100km. How many kilometers people cover in city traffic per year? 7-10k? The difference is only around 100-200l per year, while the price of fuel is nearly the same right now. In money equivalent that is less than 400 EUR per year, while new diesel cars cost 2-5k more than petrol. So by the time that economy appears, people already sell the car. With EV, the price is often higher than a diesel. So by the time EV owner starts to get that economy, imo he will be forces to do some maintenance with battery. Which makes me think that this whole tricks isnt about money, but about ecology, which is a huge topic of discussion also.

Yes, I also remember the times when there was a trend to buy diesel cars, under the idea “a kilometer is cheaper.” And there really was very little benefit. The second reason why they were taken was “they are more reliable and cheaper to maintain.”
But if he’s talking about a mid-priced electric car and a gasoline car, then the difference is more noticeable. You can simply calculate, for example, the annual savings. It is simple, for example, the daily average mileage - let it be 50 km. We count how many kilometers per year: 50*365 = 18,250 km/year. We take the price of gasoline per 100 km and the cost of charging per 100 km and get savings.
Battery maintenance - I agree, costs money, and for example for Tests it is not at all small. But if this is a middle-class car and it has a properly designed battery cooling system, then with such a mileage the issue of maintenance/replacement will not arise very soon. On the other hand, a classic car also has routine maintenance, as well as replacement of brake pads, oil seals, .... In a word, everything must be counted, but counted in comparable cars.

RS in 2009, friends who bought a Mercedes SL550, on order in Germany, came to Ukraine and were “a little surprised” that the navigation system did not have local adaptation. Let's go to the official service... The price for solving the problem is 4500 Euro Just for a new firmware of a different language package... and you're talking about the battery

[darkangel11]

I remember how people were used to buy small diesel cars because they were more economical than petrol, but in reality they never get that economy. The difference in consumption between, lets say 1.3-1.6l diesel and petrol is hardly noticeable.

It might be only 1-2l per 100km. How many kilometers people cover in city traffic per year? 7-10k? The difference is only around 100-200l per year, while the price of fuel is nearly the same right now. In money equivalent that is less than 400 EUR per year, while new diesel cars cost 2-5k more than petrol. So by the time that economy appears, people already sell the car. With EV, the price is often higher than a diesel. So by the time EV owner starts to get that economy, imo he will be forces to do some maintenance with battery. Which makes me think that this whole tricks isnt about money, but about ecology, which is a huge topic of discussion also.

Small diesels suck. I remember Kia was making 1.1 CRDI engine for their small cars that had 75KM. Honestly, who would buy something like this?
Moms were using cars like that to take children to school and not knowing why the engine is choking due to too much carbon buildup. Diesels need to burn these buildups on longer trips or they'll slowly destroy themselves. Also, diesel cars burn more fuel when they're cold so driving short distances is not going to make you save money.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

Many governments are moving to push hard to reduce sales of diesel and petrol cars, the European Parliament has officially approved a law banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the EU from 2035

The landmark law will require carmakers to cut down CO2 emissions by 100 percent.
The 100 percent cut in CO2 emissions from new cars sold would make it impossible to sell petrol or diesel-powered cars in the 27-country bloc. The law that comes into effect in phases that will require a 55 percent cut in CO2 emissions for new cars starting 2030, which is a much higher target in comparison to the current 37.5 percent.

The earth is ours and ours alone to habit, of which it is our duty to help protect it at all cost in other to make it conducive for us and our next generations yet unborn. So I'm very much happy with U.K move to help eradicate carbon emission into the atmosphere that have been proven to be harmful to our environment, which Elon Musk is already taking the lead role by producing electric cars who function wholly with the use of electricity. So for me, I think having a zero carbon emission vehicles is very possible before the year 2035 as projected, because not only will it be less harmful to our environment, but it will also be more convenient and more cheaper to operate due to the constant availability of electricity.

[bakasabo]

The second question is what is an "expensive/inexpensive car".
Now on the market there are many electric cars in the price range from 15,000 to 35,000 dollars. In general, they are no different from cars of the same class with internal combustion engines. I agree - 10 years ago the difference was noticeably greater, with not a very large range of electric cars. Now everything you want - from compact city cars to "parket crossovers". And not a few models in the above range.

I remember how people were used to buy small diesel cars because they were more economical than petrol, but in reality they never get that economy. The difference in consumption between, lets say 1.3-1.6l diesel and petrol is hardly noticeable. It might be only 1-2l per 100km. How many kilometers people cover in city traffic per year? 7-10k? The difference is only around 100-200l per year, while the price of fuel is nearly the same right now. In money equivalent that is less than 400 EUR per year, while new diesel cars cost 2-5k more than petrol. So by the time that economy appears, people already sell the car. With EV, the price is often higher than a diesel. So by the time EV owner starts to get that economy, imo he will be forces to do some maintenance with battery. Which makes me think that this whole tricks isnt about money, but about ecology, which is a huge topic of discussion also.

Yes, I also remember the times when there was a trend to buy diesel cars, under the idea “a kilometer is cheaper.” And there really was very little benefit. The second reason why they were taken was “they are more reliable and cheaper to maintain.”
But if he’s talking about a mid-priced electric car and a gasoline car, then the difference is more noticeable. You can simply calculate, for example, the annual savings. It is simple, for example, the daily average mileage - let it be 50 km. We count how many kilometers per year: 50*365 = 18,250 km/year. We take the price of gasoline per 100 km and the cost of charging per 100 km and get savings.
Battery maintenance - I agree, costs money, and for example for Tests it is not at all small. But if this is a middle-class car and it has a properly designed battery cooling system, then with such a mileage the issue of maintenance/replacement will not arise very soon. On the other hand, a classic car also has routine maintenance, as well as replacement of brake pads, oil seals, .... In a word, everything must be counted, but counted in comparable cars.

RS in 2009, friends who bought a Mercedes SL550, on order in Germany, came to Ukraine and were “a little surprised” that the navigation system did not have local adaptation. Let's go to the official service... The price for solving the problem is 4500 Euro Just for a new firmware of a different language package... and you're talking about the battery

I think the first step to switching from regular petrol cars to EV would take more than 10 years, as we first need to make changes in human minds and their vision of EV. A lot of people think that the only advantage of EV is that they pollute less than petrol or diesel. But many people still afraid of battery maintenance. They dont know how much it will cost, but a lot of people still are scared of used EV or hybrid cars. That is just a fact, many would not buy EV or hybrid cars because battery replacement cost "like 1/2 or 1/3" of a car.

[DrBeer]

I think the first step to switching from regular petrol cars to EV would take more than 10 years, as we first need to make changes in human minds and their vision of EV. A lot of people think that the only advantage of EV is that they pollute less than petrol or diesel. But many people still afraid of battery maintenance. They dont know how much it will cost, but a lot of people still are scared of used EV or hybrid cars. That is just a fact, many would not buy EV or hybrid cars because battery replacement cost "like 1/2 or 1/3" of a car.

Absolutely agree with you. Paradigm shifts and global technology shifts, in the mass market, take decades.

And there are a lot of nuances, from economic nuances to mental perception. Do you know how long the world has been moving away from horse-drawn vehicles to automobiles? And there are still countries and regions that use horse-drawn carts, buffalo in the fields....
I am absolutely sure that mass transition will be limited to some countries with high standard of living, developed infrastructure, population living in the "future" (including concern about future ecology).

So the conversation is more about mass trend than about mass transition