No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream?

[bakasabo]

Electric motors have come a long way since the advent of streetcars, subways and trolleybuses (current supply through carrier channels), and today have reached a high level of quality, production and reliability. This means that today it is possible to use them instead of internal combustion engines.

Not quite sure if today is the proper word to use, but in nearest future sounds more realistic. We have discussed here several points, why buyer would choose petrol/diesel car over EV. People are unsure of battery resource, undeveloped (still in some regions and cities) charging point network and so on. Why it is gonna take 20+ years to go to EV? Because generation must update. While we have majority of those who says "back in my days", or "me and my old VW Passat" kind of stories, we wont be having much EV. An example, 20-30 years ago kids were spending most of time outside, now they are in gadgets. In 20+ years they will be those who choose to swipe, press button, order online, use app and etc (I'm speaking figuratively), over taking greasy fuel pistol in hand.

[DrBeer]

Electric motors have come a long way since the advent of streetcars, subways and trolleybuses (current supply through carrier channels), and today have reached a high level of quality, production and reliability. This means that today it is possible to use them instead of internal combustion engines.

Not quite sure if today is the proper word to use, but in nearest future sounds more realistic. We have discussed here several points, why buyer would choose petrol/diesel car over EV. People are unsure of battery resource, undeveloped (still in some regions and cities) charging point network and so on. Why it is gonna take 20+ years to go to EV? Because generation must update. While we have majority of those who says "back in my days", or "me and my old VW Passat" kind of stories, we wont be having much EV. An example, 20-30 years ago kids were spending most of time outside, now they are in gadgets. In 20+ years they will be those who choose to swipe, press button, order online, use app and etc (I'm speaking figuratively), over taking greasy fuel pistol in hand.

Just today - electric cars are actively bought by motorists, as the first cars, as well as a replacement for previous ones with internal combustion engine.
And there are problems in this segment:
- For example, countries with a low standard of living and infrastructure development.  The internal combustion engine will be in demand there for many decades to come. It is cheap, primitive, easier to repair/replace. There are no special problems with fuel. Plus you can always get it in jerry cans )
- battery capacity and charging time. This is a solution in the near future.
- And yes I agree - the mentality of consumers must change globally, and this is a matter of at least 1-2 generations.

[0t3p0t]

For me this will surely be implemented by first world countries like EU because adoption in electric vehicles even reached the third world countries like mine. The demand of electric vehicles here in my country is quiet increasing and the government also started to adopt this kind of technology to modernize the aging jeepneys. Though EV still is in the early stage of development and business but in the future it will revolutionize transportation all over the world.

[Sithara007]

For me this will surely be implemented by first world countries like EU because adoption in electric vehicles even reached the third world countries like mine. The demand of electric vehicles here in my country is quiet increasing and the government also started to adopt this kind of technology to modernize the aging jeepneys. Though EV still is in the early stage of development and business but in the future it will revolutionize transportation all over the world.

The irony is that biggest jump in EV adoption is happening in some of the developing countries such as India and China, where EVs are competitively priced against the gasoline and diesel run vehicles. In the developed nations, EVs are a lot more costlier and therefore the adoption is much slower. And one additional factor that drives EV adoption is the fact that gasoline/diesel prices are much higher in countries such as India when compared to the United States. A lot of people prefer EVs as a countermeasure against rising fuel prices.

[stompix]

The irony is that biggest jump in EV adoption is happening in some of the developing countries such as India and China, where EVs are competitively priced against the gasoline and diesel run vehicles. In the developed nations, EVs are a lot more costlier and therefore the adoption is much slower.

What a load of crap:
https://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-sales/ev-sales-soar-to-139000-units-in-october-and-123-million-in-first-10-months-of-2023-117640

While electric two-wheelers (691,536 units) account for 56 % of the total EV sales in the January-October 2023 period, three-wheelers (471,153 units) have a 38.17% share of the India EV pie. A total of 67,151 electric cars and SUVs and also vans were also sold, which gives them a 5.44% share, with commercial vehicles comprising goods carriers and buses (1,579 units) getting a 0.12% share (see EV segment-wise retail sales data table above).

Norway alone beats India in terms of electric car registrations:
https://www.electromaps.com/en/blog/electric-car-sales-third-quarter-2023-europe

Of the 95,499 cars registered in the first nine months of 2023, 83,617 were electric or plug-in hybrids, representing 90.4% of the Norwegian market.

Also, in the normal world, a scooter is not a car!

[ancafe]

Industrial development is indeed expected, but in my opinion this is also motivated by the idea of ​​changing society's tendency to be less dependent on the use of oil (gasoline or diesel). The political and economic situation between western and Arab countries is increasingly heated and oil prices are never stable, so this idea may be part of the government's plan to no longer depend on its oil supply countries.

I don't know, I didn't think much about it, but maybe what I said was one of the reasons behind the idea. Additionally, the government will probably tell us indirectly that bitcoin mining saves more energy than the amount of electricity used by cars.

Some developed countries will continue to evolve because expecting oil imports from other countries is quite unstable for the country's economic process, especially if the oil producing country is experiencing high geopolitics so that the export process will be disrupted and can cause chaos. Low costs usually have an impact on the other side and whether electric cars can be a solution to the problem of oil or diesel fueled cars requires study because sometimes what is conveyed in the media does not happen as in reality.

Another fact is that bitcoin mining is much more energy efficient and does not cause global warming compared to the more energy that would be used in electric cars, whether renewable energy or not. However, the government is actually trying to pose a threat to bitcoin mining, which is actually much more environmentally friendly.

[idarasun]

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.

But the actual cost of making one is going to create another shortage. Its battery will be the next problem that shall be made when most cars are already EVs.

At first I thought electric vehicles would not have such a negative impact. However, after you explained a little about battery problems, I think battery problems such as durability and environmental impacts in production also need to be considered. Is there a best way or solution to this problem?

[DrBeer]

For me this will surely be implemented by first world countries like EU because adoption in electric vehicles even reached the third world countries like mine. The demand of electric vehicles here in my country is quiet increasing and the government also started to adopt this kind of technology to modernize the aging jeepneys. Though EV still is in the early stage of development and business but in the future it will revolutionize transportation all over the world.

It goes without saying - progressive ideas are first implemented by the most progressive and most developed countries. At least for the reason that their technological level allows to realize it. Then these solutions will be replicated in countries less progressive and less ready to change, through adapted solutions. But this process may take a long time, I assume that for some countries, the penetration of electric cars may take tens of years....

[Hamphser]

Electric motors have come a long way since the advent of streetcars, subways and trolleybuses (current supply through carrier channels), and today have reached a high level of quality, production and reliability. This means that today it is possible to use them instead of internal combustion engines.

Not quite sure if today is the proper word to use, but in nearest future sounds more realistic. We have discussed here several points, why buyer would choose petrol/diesel car over EV. People are unsure of battery resource, undeveloped (still in some regions and cities) charging point network and so on. Why it is gonna take 20+ years to go to EV? Because generation must update. While we have majority of those who says "back in my days", or "me and my old VW Passat" kind of stories, we wont be having much EV. An example, 20-30 years ago kids were spending most of time outside, now they are in gadgets. In 20+ years they will be those who choose to swipe, press button, order online, use app and etc (I'm speaking figuratively), over taking greasy fuel pistol in hand.

Just today - electric cars are actively bought by motorists, as the first cars, as well as a replacement for previous ones with internal combustion engine.
And there are problems in this segment:
- For example, countries with a low standard of living and infrastructure development.  The internal combustion engine will be in demand there for many decades to come. It is cheap, primitive, easier to repair/replace. There are no special problems with fuel. Plus you can always get it in jerry cans )
- battery capacity and charging time. This is a solution in the near future.
- And yes I agree - the mentality of consumers must change globally, and this is a matter of at least 1-2 generations.

On the time that charging stations is really that globally deployed or something we shall say that in ever 100 or 200 miles on which there's a charging station then this might really be that having that consideration
but whether we do like it or not ICE cars would really be still existing no matter what. It is really just that hard to imagine that they would really be that outphased in the near future on which it would really be just that normal that there might be some switch up or really just that equal when it come to relevance and its existence. Now into this current year on which EV sales are really that increasing which does mean that
there's a significant recognition of it and this is something which is really that normal but dont expect for that full switch.

We cant really say that it is a dream on which we've seen that there's a significant rise in speaking about numbers on which means that there's really indeed that a recognition
but this is something that we cant tell and make some conclusions that we are really that leading to full scale switch which neither it could happen or not, no one knows the future.

[STT]

battery problems such as durability

This was already vastly improved in just 10 years.   The biggest limitation I can think of is that getting close to 0% or 100% is damaging currently to the long term health.  Hence it should be avoided in the full use of a battery but that also means EV is more limited then the specs would suggest vs long range capabilities of oil based fuel vehicles.   However in time  Im confident the advances of the last decade will occur again  in future and we will see better batteries but also variation in their capabilities perhaps future batteries wont suffer the memory effect quite so much, faster recharge would be a big charge etc.  Its for certain that solar panels are improving so also EV is continuing to benefit from that advancement imo.
  Biggest challenge to EV is ironically not the product itself but the infrastructure surrounding it, the ancient spread of electric wires across a country can be a problem.  If its possible to fix, that fix could take a decade anyway.

[Renampun]

Just today - electric cars are actively bought by motorists, as the first cars, as well as a replacement for previous ones with internal combustion engine.
And there are problems in this segment:
- For example, countries with a low standard of living and infrastructure development.  The internal combustion engine will be in demand there for many decades to come. It is cheap, primitive, easier to repair/replace. There are no special problems with fuel. Plus you can always get it in jerry cans )
- battery capacity and charging time. This is a solution in the near future.
- And yes I agree - the mentality of consumers must change globally, and this is a matter of at least 1-2 generations.

To shift people's habits from using oil cars to electric cars will take several decades because the infrastructure in many countries is still different, just imagine in countries like India, they have high levels of population density and also severe levels of traffic jams, this makes the use of electric cars is ineffective. while we are still early in the development of electric cars, there are many reports of expensive maintenance costs and charging stations that are difficult to find.
However, if I was asked to choose between a petrol car and an electric car, I would choose an electric car, I believe it is the best choice to reduce carbon emissions which have spread throughout the earth's atmosphere.

[EluguHcman]

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.
So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

I think the lower cost of the electric cars would be based on the combustible and the electrical powering technological systems in the sense that electrical powers would be more affordable, saves exhausting energies (economical power) and more reliable than that of the diesels a s the petrols but purchasing of the electrical cars
in the first place  would be more expensive than that of the combustible powering systems. Hence a more advantages of the electric car to the Petro and diesel engines technologies would be that the electrical car would be lesser expensive to maintenance and service than the diesel and fuel due to the emissions of the lubricational engine parts.

The adoption of the technology is possible to come a reality because the government had already signed it a law and has already set some picnics amongst its masses but giving a predictive time to achieve this is uncertain but believes the Europeans would do its best to to meet up with the targeted in a closest time.

[Litzki1990]

Zero-emission cars by 2035
The net zero goal is also referred to as carbon neutrality. State in which a country's emissions are compensated by the absorption and removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Absorption of emissions can be increased by creating more carbon sinks, such as forests. If the absorption and removal exceed the actual emissions, it is even possible for a country to have negative emissions (e.g., Bhutan). Global carbon neutrality is the only way to achieve the Paris Agreement target. So the banning of petrol and diesel cars by 2035 is a welcome approach, and we will wait and see if it becomes a dream or reality.

Technology is improving tremendously and people are now thinking about the world in a new way because of the improvement in technology. Before the launch of electric car or electric bike in the market, we never imagined that we can drive a car or bike only with the help of electricity instead of petrol or diesel. Tesla has become a very popular company in developed countries like America and Tesla's electric cars have become very popular. If an electric car can be purchased with a relatively high amount of money, then our fuel costs will be much lower later on, and if the fuel costs are reduced, there will be large annual savings. By 2035, the use of diesel and petrol is expected to decrease, though not completely.

[AndyGryffindor]

Too bad they are getting rid of diesels. Mine are around 75% efficient, nowadays.

[DrBeer]

Just today - electric cars are actively bought by motorists, as the first cars, as well as a replacement for previous ones with internal combustion engine.
And there are problems in this segment:
- For example, countries with a low standard of living and infrastructure development.  The internal combustion engine will be in demand there for many decades to come. It is cheap, primitive, easier to repair/replace. There are no special problems with fuel. Plus you can always get it in jerry cans )
- battery capacity and charging time. This is a solution in the near future.
- And yes I agree - the mentality of consumers must change globally, and this is a matter of at least 1-2 generations.

To shift people's habits from using oil cars to electric cars will take several decades because the infrastructure in many countries is still different, just imagine in countries like India, they have high levels of population density and also severe levels of traffic jams, this makes the use of electric cars is ineffective. while we are still early in the development of electric cars, there are many reports of expensive maintenance costs and charging stations that are difficult to find.
However, if I was asked to choose between a petrol car and an electric car, I would choose an electric car, I believe it is the best choice to reduce carbon emissions which have spread throughout the earth's atmosphere.

It goes without saying - the transition to electric vehicles is a transition to a new technological level, which means it requires serious preparation, from the mental perception of the technology to the infrastructure. But exactly the same "adaptation" to the transition to internal combustion engines - mass refining of oil into gasoline/diesel, construction of fuel storage and delivery systems, fueling stations,.... It is all time and it will not be solved in a month or a year or 5 years. Once again I remind you - plus there is a huge gap in the standard of living in different countries, which also requires changes....

[Promocodeudo]

Some reports indicate that the costs of running an electric car are actually lower than the costs of running a car with an internal combustion engine.
So, will this goal be achieved by the year 2035? Will the cars be more efficient and at a good price compared to current prices, or is it a policy that may take decades?

I think the lower cost of the electric cars would be based on the combustible and the electrical powering technological systems in the sense that electrical powers would be more affordable, saves exhausting energies (economical power) and more reliable than that of the diesels a s the petrols but purchasing of the electrical cars
in the first place  would be more expensive than that of the combustible powering systems. Hence a more advantages of the electric car to the Petro and diesel engines technologies would be that the electrical car would be lesser expensive to maintenance and service than the diesel and fuel due to the emissions of the lubricational engine parts.

The adoption of the technology is possible to come a reality because the government had already signed it a law and has already set some picnics amongst its masses but giving a predictive time to achieve this is uncertain but believes the Europeans would do its best to to meet up with the targeted in a closest time.

The actualization of this might be possible in the developed word but I don't see it happening in many African countries, so many thing are needed to be put in place for this to come to reality, I remember electric cars, up till this moment there is ongoing modification on the battery side, so actualizing this need the totally encouragement and direct involvement of the government if not, nothing will be achieved, to do away with this carbon monoxide which is a dangerous, the manufactures will have to do away with engines so that this will take effect and this is done green house effect will take a new tune, but let's be sincere house is this possible when giant car manufacturing company that's been owned by most influential people in the society still exist unless they will have to turn all there cars to carbonless cars.

[Youngkhngdiddy]

It goes without saying - the transition to electric vehicles is a transition to a new technological level, which means it requires serious preparation, from the mental perception of the technology to the infrastructure. But exactly the same "adaptation" to the transition to internal combustion engines - mass refining of oil into gasoline/diesel, construction of fuel storage and delivery systems, fueling stations,.... It is all time and it will not be solved in a month or a year or 5 years. Once again I remind you - plus there is a huge gap in the standard of living in different countries, which also requires changes....

   With the way the world moves, in years to come, there'll be crucial changes as to how the world is viewed. Innovations emanate everyday and they make for the world's transformation. Electric vehicles usage won't be a bad idea either to the wealthy or less wealthy nations, yes at first it may seem challenging trying to make the switch but months to years after, there'd be this balance in the settings and the advantageous effect would be seen. One of the plenty benefits of going electric is that the air pollution would greater be reduced due to less carbon emissions from cars.
    Use of electric vehicles will help the economy and make movement lot more easier, in terms of crude marketing and all and the glitch that may be encountered would be the set up of the chargers, the cost effectiveness and manpower but I believe it's one good innovation that's very much likely to exist in years to come and the less wealthy nations won't hesitate in being a part of it.

[philipma1957]

The irony is that biggest jump in EV adoption is happening in some of the developing countries such as India and China, where EVs are competitively priced against the gasoline and diesel run vehicles. In the developed nations, EVs are a lot more costlier and therefore the adoption is much slower.

What a load of crap:
https://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-sales/ev-sales-soar-to-139000-units-in-october-and-123-million-in-first-10-months-of-2023-117640

While electric two-wheelers (691,536 units) account for 56 % of the total EV sales in the January-October 2023 period, three-wheelers (471,153 units) have a 38.17% share of the India EV pie. A total of 67,151 electric cars and SUVs and also vans were also sold, which gives them a 5.44% share, with commercial vehicles comprising goods carriers and buses (1,579 units) getting a 0.12% share (see EV segment-wise retail sales data table above).

Norway alone beats India in terms of electric car registrations:
https://www.electromaps.com/en/blog/electric-car-sales-third-quarter-2023-europe

Of the 95,499 cars registered in the first nine months of 2023, 83,617 were electric or plug-in hybrids, representing 90.4% of the Norwegian market.

Also, in the normal world, a scooter is not a car!

Scooters are big in NYC more than 100,000 of them. They get around well on crowded streets many restaurants deliver with them.

BTW I think the USA will never go fully electric maybe ⅓ will be hybrid-and ⅔ electric.

I spent today with my dementia suffering bro-in-law.

He does not have a charger and is not going to get one.

Most electric cars can not do the round trip to my home and his. Charging today publicly on christmas would be hard to do.

I would need to drive a slower way and top off on the way up and on the way back.

Adding 90 minutes to a hard trip in the first place.

I need a 500 mile car to be able to make the trip with no issues.

[electronicash]

It goes without saying - the transition to electric vehicles is a transition to a new technological level, which means it requires serious preparation, from the mental perception of the technology to the infrastructure. But exactly the same "adaptation" to the transition to internal combustion engines - mass refining of oil into gasoline/diesel, construction of fuel storage and delivery systems, fueling stations,.... It is all time and it will not be solved in a month or a year or 5 years. Once again I remind you - plus there is a huge gap in the standard of living in different countries, which also requires changes....

   With the way the world moves, in years to come, there'll be crucial changes as to how the world is viewed. Innovations emanate everyday and they make for the world's transformation. Electric vehicles usage won't be a bad idea either to the wealthy or less wealthy nations, yes at first it may seem challenging trying to make the switch but months to years after, there'd be this balance in the settings and the advantageous effect would be seen. One of the plenty benefits of going electric is that the air pollution would greater be reduced due to less carbon emissions from cars.
    Use of electric vehicles will help the economy and make movement lot more easier, in terms of crude marketing and all and the glitch that may be encountered would be the set up of the chargers, the cost effectiveness and manpower but I believe it's one good innovation that's very much likely to exist in years to come and the less wealthy nations won't hesitate in being a part of it.

i doubt the less wealthy nations will take part in this transition. all the more with the wealthy nations like the OPEC countries in which the OIL is their business. they are not going to kill their own economy for this EV. they know people need oil, did you know that tires and all other things we use today come from natural gas?

this i think is even among the reasons why they are at war now. because OPEC countries sees that sooner the imposing of the ESG on them will make them poor.
and the poor countries who want to build factories to manufacture goods to make the lives of their people better, they can't do that anymore without oil and gas.
i don't think batteries can sustain assembly lines operating 12 hours a day. this transition if ever happens will not be done in 10 years.

right now our electricity is produced by burning gas coming from Russia and Saudi. our cards are running by consuming fuel or gas. our stoves uses LPG which comes from gas.  

[boyptc]

Too bad they are getting rid of diesels. Mine are around 75% efficient, nowadays.

It depends on a country where you at but this is a very inevitable adoption that most countries will do. As long as where the world is heading, most of the countries have to adapt from the situation.

But I think that there will still be countries that are dominant with diesel cars that shall retain the supply of their cars and will still keep up with it because there's a market of it on their country.

We will see on how these changes will take effect when majority of the rich countries are already into EVs.