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Quote from: digicidal on April 29, 2014, 02:29:24 PM

Not interested in spreading FUD - I've invested in both sides, although I'm out of WC completely at the moment, but I've got buy orders in to scoop up more WC when everything hits the exchanges... but I am afraid there's more than a little bit of wishful thinking on both sides of this argument.

Was just responding to an obvious WC holder (or more aptly someone that's obviously not a BC holder) over on the BC thread. They were delighted to point out that the BC price had dipped below 29K. There claim was that the 'math' was somehow in WC's favor.

I understand that everyone (except for the trolls perhaps) in this thread wants WC to do as well or even better than BC - and I salute your fortitude in that endeavor. I'd love to see it as I've already made a killing just trading the same 300K WC back and forth between the low 700s and high 800s. In some cases waiting less than 15 minutes to reverse for 8-9% profit! Naturally, I've been doing similarly with BC - but the trades are farther apart and less profitable naturally.

Anyway, the question I have is how there is so much belief - especially after seeing what happened with BC - that a largely captive market that has a captive sell commodity but a nearly unlimited buy side (i.e. BTC transfers have been unaffected obviously) that the movement will show gains with increased sell-side activity?

Please correct any errors you see in my thinking on this, but if there are (for arguments sake - I didn't add up all exchange offers) around 80M WC currently on the exchanges and 220M stuck in wallets - how will the price move upwards? At least initially I can't see this as a possibility. Even if 200M WC was held by 'true believers' and only ~9% (20M) decided to sell when they can... that would make 100M available for purchase - to the same pool of buyers.

Would love to hear I'm wrong in this analysis - but this isn't a simple matter of TA vs. fundamentals... it's a seemingly forgone conclusion to my way of thinking. I hope not for everyone's sake however.

Well, it depends on why people are selling or, more importantly, not buying right now. If the sell-off and low buy rate is based off the assumption that whitecoin is terminally broken, then a fix that allows PoS to work and exchanges to reopen is a positive sign and that panic selling was unwarranted. If the idea persists, that the coin's reputation is damaged beyond repair, then the fix will lead to your scenario with many people trying to exit any position they hold.

Honestly though, that would all be true if things worked as they do in semi-rational markets. What will drive the price of whitecoin is the amount of whales on either side of the bet. If enough put in big buy orders, the herd will be convinced that the price is going up because it's fixed and it will probably rise. IF enough of them put in large sell orders, the price will crater as they assume what you said is true.

I guess we'll find out soon.