dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 25, 2016, 03:23:57 AM |
|
OK LADIES LAST ADVICESELL YOUR CLAMS NOW, THE PARTY IS OVERSUB 0.001 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MARK MY WORDSREALLY, I'M NOT KIDDING ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) For the record, it's the end of next week, and there's a 200 BTC buy wall at twice the price quoted by Mr. Vulture: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FutXbE5G.png&t=665&c=7KfVYoTB6XIbEA) I'm not sure I've ever seen a less accurate prediction. IF THIS SHITCOIN IS NOT BELOW 0.001 BY NEXT SUNDAY, I PROMISE TO DISSAPPEAR FROM THIS SHITCOIN THREAD FOREVER
I meant one minute after January 24 at 23:59 poloniex time.
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 25, 2016, 04:54:29 AM |
|
Whether you check against theoretical or real blocks, you find the same.
If you randomly pick a point in time over the last year and see what the time between blocks was at that point, you get number around 2 minutes on average. Even though the average blocktime is only one minute.
I understand this as: 1. Take a point in time over some very long time period. 2. For that point, take the time difference between the last and the next blocks created (unless the randomly selected point in time is exactly a block creation time, in which case pick again) 3. If you repeat 1 and 2 some large number of times and take the average time between blocks, it will be about 2 minutes. This has to be wrong, so have I just totally misunderstood you?
|
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 25, 2016, 05:57:38 AM |
|
I understand this as:
1. Take a point in time over some very long time period. 2. For that point, take the time difference between the last and the next blocks created (unless the randomly selected point in time is exactly a block creation time, in which case pick again) 3. If you repeat 1 and 2 some large number of times and take the average time between blocks, it will be about 2 minutes.
This has to be wrong, so have I just totally misunderstood you?
You've understood correctly, but it isn't wrong. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) For (2), if you happen to pick exactly a block creation time, use the time between that block and the one before it. No need to disregard your selection. Let's make it even simpler: 1. Pick 10k random numbers between 0 and 10k. Sort them in order. 2. Pick random numbers in the same range. Find where they fit in the sorted list above. Find the size of the gap they fit into. 3. Average those gap sizes. 4. Get 2.00 Astonishing, isn't it? 10k points in a 10k range are an average of 1 unit apart from each other. But randomly pick points in that range and find that the average size of the gaps you land in is actually 2! Some code: #!/usr/bin/env python
import random
points = range = 10000 samples = 1000000 list = []
def randomPoint(): return random.random() * range
def findPoint(point): last = 0 for i in list: if i > point: return last, i last = i return last, range
i = 0 while i < points: list.append(randomPoint()) i += 1
list.sort()
i = 0 sum = 0 while i < samples: i += 1 point = randomPoint() start, end = findPoint(point) sum += end - start if i % 1000 == 0: print "%d : point %.2f is between %.2f and %.2f, gap = %.2f, average gap = %.2f" % (i, point, start, end, end - start, sum / i)
Some results: $ ~/Source/Python/randompoints.py 1000 : point 2387.45 is between 2385.66 and 2390.78, gap = 5.12, average gap = 1.99 2000 : point 5960.24 is between 5959.33 and 5963.06, gap = 3.73, average gap = 2.00 3000 : point 7200.27 is between 7199.62 and 7200.60, gap = 0.98, average gap = 1.99 4000 : point 928.07 is between 926.96 and 928.65, gap = 1.68, average gap = 1.99 5000 : point 6716.98 is between 6716.89 and 6717.06, gap = 0.17, average gap = 1.98 6000 : point 6888.10 is between 6887.06 and 6890.42, gap = 3.36, average gap = 1.98 7000 : point 3816.51 is between 3816.14 and 3816.89, gap = 0.75, average gap = 1.99 8000 : point 7514.49 is between 7513.71 and 7514.87, gap = 1.15, average gap = 1.99 9000 : point 5838.96 is between 5837.04 and 5840.15, gap = 3.11, average gap = 2.00 10000 : point 2998.62 is between 2997.48 and 2999.81, gap = 2.33, average gap = 2.00 11000 : point 9116.49 is between 9115.60 and 9117.87, gap = 2.27, average gap = 2.00 12000 : point 5445.59 is between 5445.08 and 5445.95, gap = 0.87, average gap = 2.00 [...]
See how in the results we are tending to find the bigger gaps (5.12, 3.73, ...) and not the smaller ones. It's because the smaller ones are smaller, and so less likely to be randomly picked.
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
smooth
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 25, 2016, 07:01:50 AM |
|
Okay now that the solution is no longer a spoiler, it is really quite simple. TLDR:
When you pick a random point in time you are more likely to end up in the middle of a long block than a short one. (Think about it: There are blocks that are 1 second or less. How likely is a random point in time to end up in one of those?).
It turns out that the average block time you end up picking with this method is 2 minutes, even though the average length of all CLAM blocks is 1 minute.
|
|
|
|
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 25, 2016, 01:05:17 PM Last edit: January 25, 2016, 01:48:18 PM by organofcorti |
|
I understand this as:
1. Take a point in time over some very long time period. 2. For that point, take the time difference between the last and the next blocks created (unless the randomly selected point in time is exactly a block creation time, in which case pick again) 3. If you repeat 1 and 2 some large number of times and take the average time between blocks, it will be about 2 minutes.
This has to be wrong, so have I just totally misunderstood you?
You've understood correctly, but it isn't wrong. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) For (2), if you happen to pick exactly a block creation time, use the time between that block and the one before it. No need to disregard your selection. Let's make it even simpler: 1. Pick 10k random numbers between 0 and 10k. Sort them in order. 2. Pick random numbers in the same range. Find where they fit in the sorted list above. Find the size of the gap they fit into. 3. Average those gap sizes. 4. Get 2.00 Astonishing, isn't it? 10k points in a 10k range are an average of 1 unit apart from each other. But randomly pick points in that range and find that the average size of the gaps you land in is actually 2! Some code: <snip> Okay now that the solution is no longer a spoiler, it is really quite simple. TLDR:
When you pick a random point in time you are more likely to end up in the middle of a long block than a short one. (Think about it: There are blocks that are 1 second or less. How likely is a random point in time to end up in one of those?).
It turns out that the average block time you end up picking with this method is 2 minutes, even though the average length of all CLAM blocks is 1 minute.
I've given it some thought and I think that explanation is correct but it's not the entire answer. If we assume you're picking one interblock duration from an infinite sequence, you're essentially picking a block weighted by the duration. The probability density is of the interblock durations is exponential, ie P(x) = lambda * exp(-lambda*x) where x is the number of blocks and lambda is the block rate function. So expectation is: E(x) = integral_0_to_inf (x*P(x)) = 1/lambda The weighted probability density is the above multiplied by x*lambda, so the weighted expectation is: = integral_0_to_inf (x*lambda*x*P(x)) = integral_0_to_inf (x*lambda*x*lambda * exp(-lambda*x) = 2/lambdawhich is what we see. Yay! Incidentally, if you take the averages generated by your script, you'll can check that the the histograms match the above probability density. But what if we instead want to sample lots of blocks, maybe take a sample every n/lambda seconds? I don't have a derivation for it, but I wrote a nice simple simulator in R: library(data.table) library(ggplot2)
# n is number of blocks # lambda is block rate in seconds (eg 1/60 for clams, 1/600 for bitcoin) # sample at n*lambda seconds
test_fun1 <- function(n, lambda){ ### sum(rexp(n*10, 1/lambda)) will usually be > n*lambda testdata <- data.table(duration = rexp(n*10, 1/lambda), block_height = 1:(n*10)) testdata[, time := cumsum(duration)] rndtime <- runif(1, 0, n* lambda) duration <- testdata[which(time > rndtime)[1], duration]
### in case blocks don't cover the time range if(length(duration) > 0) return(duration) }
n <- seq(0.5, 50 , 0.5) lambda <- 60
plotdata <- data.table(minutes = n*lambda/60, mean_duration = pbsapply(n, function(x) mean(replicate(10000, test_fun1(x, lambda = lambda)))))
ggplot(plotdata, aes(minutes, mean_duration)) + geom_point(alpha=0.25) + geom_smooth(formula= y ~ log(x)) + theme_bw()
For clams, this gives us the following plot: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FHlXbZIY.png&t=665&c=ttnuOXgNg3MFSw) So if you're doing a lot of samples, the expected sampled duration tends to the expected 1/lambda (60 seconds in this case). As you reduce the sample rate, it will approach 2/lambda in the way illustrated in the plot above. Thanks for the puzzle, doog ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
|
|
|
djhomeschool
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 25, 2016, 02:10:54 PM |
|
So we've only seen 8k dug since the digger stopped, 3k of which was all at once.
Better get rid of digging, then! (Note: Sarcasm.)
|
|
|
|
garthkiser
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 27, 2016, 05:33:00 PM Last edit: January 27, 2016, 05:46:08 PM by garthkiser |
|
A group calling itself Goi Media has registered clamclient.org. From Googling the registration phone number, it appears that they are just domain squatters with no connection to CLAMs the cryptocurrency. https://whois.icann.org/en/lookup?name=clamclient.org
|
|
|
|
romjpn
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 02:20:13 AM |
|
Clam has been very bearish for a quite a time now. When the pump is coming ?
|
---~~~***~~~--- http://InvestBitcoinGuide.com ---~~~***~~~--- Invest your bitcoins/altcoins into legit businesses. Get solid returns ! We hate scams and ponzis !
|
|
|
SuperClam (OP)
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 03:40:14 AM |
|
The question is: What are you doing to let the world know about CLAM? CLAM has a great many awesome features to let people know about. For instance: Factom is a decentralized proof-of-existence system - CLAM has had CLAMspeech and proof-of-existence for ages. CLAMspeech acts as a trustless 'state' storage - That suggests that asset registries such as XRP and ETH are possible. Our Proof-Of-Working-Stake(PoWS) has attributes which make it better than conventional Proof-Of-Stake(PoS). Our PoWS system is extremely customized providing features that no other stake system has implemented. We have a system(with better support coming soon) that allows the community to support and create development petitions. Our faster block time gives us 10x the capacity of Bitcoin with no fork needed. Our client is user customizable via QSS(very similar to CSS), allowing custom styling of the client.
The moral of the story? Shout CLAM to the roof-tops, there is plenty to shout about ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
|
|
|
Swordsoffreedom
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 05:24:42 AM |
|
I feel like someone is plotting a pump seeing how other alt's are on rallys and now treading back its a bit interesting to see Clam on standby. That said the resistance wall retreated for a bit guess its a test.
|
..Stake.com.. | | | ▄████████████████████████████████████▄ ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██ ▄████▄ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ██████ ██ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ▀██▀ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ █████ ███ ██████ ██ ████▄ ██ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ████ ████ ██████████ ████ ████ ████▀ ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███ ██ ██ ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████████████████████████████████████ | | | | | | ▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄ █ ▄▀▄ █▀▀█▀▄▄ █ █▀█ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▄██▄ █ ▌ █ █ ▄██████▄ █ ▌ ▐▌ █ ██████████ █ ▐ █ █ ▐██████████▌ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▀▀██████▀▀ █ ▌ █ █ ▄▄▄██▄▄▄ █ ▌▐▌ █ █▐ █ █ █▐▐▌ █ █▐█ ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█ | | | | | | ▄▄█████████▄▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄█▀ ▐█▌ ▀█▄ ██ ▐█▌ ██ ████▄ ▄█████▄ ▄████ ████████▄███████████▄████████ ███▀ █████████████ ▀███ ██ ███████████ ██ ▀█▄ █████████ ▄█▀ ▀█▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄▄▄█▀ ▀███████ ███████▀ ▀█████▄ ▄█████▀ ▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀ | | | ..PLAY NOW.. |
|
|
|
daxxog
Jr. Member
Offline
Activity: 42
Merit: 1
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 06:08:10 PM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaI05AKN.jpg&t=665&c=nzcmx4cJDhvQVQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ)
|
|
|
|
Chuck_Bartowski
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 07:50:13 PM |
|
Services for Clam are listed (will be) on clamtopia.comfor the Time being you can have free Advertising on it (468*60 Banner / rotating). Your Banner has to lead to your own Service you use Clam for. to add your Banner use the Contact Form on the Page and i will get back to you. a PM in this Forum will do too. Greetings, Chuck
|
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 09:28:35 PM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ) That could be anything in that package. Where's the beans?
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 09:31:14 PM |
|
Services for Clam are listed (will be) on clamtopia.comfor the Time being you can have free Advertising on it (468*60 Banner / rotating). Your Banner has to lead to your own Service you use Clam for. I didn't hear about clamtopia before. The link to just-dice is missing a hyphen.
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
daxxog
Jr. Member
Offline
Activity: 42
Merit: 1
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 09:36:56 PM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ) That could be anything in that package. Where's the beans? Here is a picture of the contents of the bag poured into a coffee can. The object in the middle is the top of the spoon I use to put the grounds into my french press. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQl7raad.jpg&t=665&c=A2gzbhaLCiF3yQ)
|
|
|
|
Chuck_Bartowski
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 01, 2016, 11:03:24 PM |
|
Services for Clam are listed (will be) on clamtopia.comfor the Time being you can have free Advertising on it (468*60 Banner / rotating). Your Banner has to lead to your own Service you use Clam for. I didn't hear about clamtopia before. The link to just-dice is missing a hyphen. will correct it, thx for pointing it out :-) Chuck
|
|
|
|
djhomeschool
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 02, 2016, 12:54:56 AM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ) That could be anything in that package. Where's the beans? Really, doog? ;( Also, by default we ship the beans ground, as you saw in the coffee can pic.
|
|
|
|
Kefkius
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 64
Merit: 20
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 02, 2016, 01:05:53 AM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ) That could be anything in that package. Where's the beans? Really, doog? ;( Also, by default we ship the beans ground, as you saw in the coffee can pic. I wouldn't take that as a personal insult. Also, it may have been a reference to this: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaIwzPlf.png&t=665&c=v_6zsyUf4NrXOA)
|
|
|
|
SuperClam (OP)
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 02, 2016, 12:40:44 PM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ) That could be anything in that package. Where's the beans? Really, doog? ;( Also, by default we ship the beans ground, as you saw in the coffee can pic. doog's deadpan attention to detail helps keep CLAM afloat ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Nothing personal ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
|
|
|
jpcfan
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
February 02, 2016, 01:41:55 PM |
|
I have bought coffee from CryptoMercado many times. Shipping is fast, coffee is bomb. LLTGC. Here are pictures of my last order: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FvWpQemh.jpg&t=665&c=G8-M7jBN8YCShQ) That could be anything in that package. Where's the beans? your right, i opened up my coffee bag and found 2 kilos of coke. is there a return address to this place?
|
120% | | 〈 | 50% | | ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ | DUCK | | DICE | ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ ████████ | | 〉 | | 〉 | |
|
|
|
|