nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Bitfinex LTC swaps up to 220k. All time high (if you exclude the brief high several days ago where the swaps were taken out, but not used).
Still another 45k of swaps available at decent rates. Get them while you can =)
The higher flash rate (0.05%/day) is increasing supply.

I shorted another 100 at $2.98 and 100 at $3.07.  I'm surprised at LTC's resiliency. Yesterday I frankly thought it was all over. I wonder if the pumpers are considering a push to $4? I kind of think it is either a push to $4 or fall back to $2.  It's been at $3 for a while and I'd expect the pumpers would be taking large profits.  Maybe they are trying to maintain the $3 price while still selling slowly.

The LTC China over US premium is down to 1% (previously during the intense part of the pump it was 3-4%).  The BTC premium is down too.

BTC is slightly down, but still a lot better at $240+ than $220.  Much less talk of needing another crash below $200.

The blockchain size debate is interesting. In one way it is a debate between whether Bitcoin should be for the masses (high limit) or for more of an elite (keep 1 MB) as advocated by noted Bitcoin entrepreneur, elitist, and troll: Mircea Popescu (trilema.com).  I'm hopeful that there will be a consensus, though it is very challenging to debate anything on the internet - face to face is much better.

[nrd525]

Apparently BFX changed the way in which USD swaps are calculated.  So the current number of USD swaps is at an all-time-high (not just a 10 month high).


http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3ah8su/daily_discussion_saturday_june_20_2015/

[–]deb0rk 3 points 8 hours ago*
My longwinded and possibly confusing explanation here.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/315ks5/daily_discussion_thursday_april_02_2015/cpywuly

Updating first part, taking our current USD swap total and comparing it to the old system:

$30M swaps today would equal at every minimum $42.6M back then. That is absolute lower bound, if everyone was max leverage 1:3.33.
If not everyone was max leverage, and say average leverage was 1:2, then total would be $60M.
Second part, taking old $31M and comparing to current system, hasn't changed.

If everyone was at maximum leverage, $31M back then would be equivalent of $18.6M today. That is absolute upper bound.
If not everyone was max leverage, and say average leverage was 1:2, then it'd be equal to $15.5M today.
I think the best way of comparison is to #2, translating old system $31M to current system. Currently USD swap sum represents the absolute certainty of USD swaps that must be closed at some point.

...

It is also important to recall that some of the USD swaps are LTC longs.  I'd guess that there are several times more longs than shorts, so say 2:1.  LTC shorts are 220k - or $660k - so there could be $1.3 million of LTC longs.

[nrd525]

I think the popping of the Chinese stock market bubble (and maybe real estate bubble too?) will hurt LTC more than BTC.  Though it could be pretty bad for BTC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/shanghai-composite-heads-for-worst-month-in-year-as-futures-drop

[nrd525]

Shorted another 100 LTC at $3.12. 

Greek referendum could get interesting. I'm guessing they will vote against the deal.  Really they should dramatically cut their defense spending (their above-average % of GDP spent on defense is equal to 100% of their above-average European debt load).

[nrd525]

Shanghai Composite Index.  Up 120% in the past year, but down 18% (as of last Friday) from the high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true}

Shorted another 100 LTC at 3.17.

[klee]

You do hate LTC don't you? lol 

Me too 

[Morecoin Freeman]

Omg LTC is out of control. I sincerely hope you survive nrd525.

[nrd525]

Wow.  LTC is out of control.  If I believed in Elliott waves, this looks a lot like three large up waves with the second increase being the largest one.  Is that typical of Elliott waves?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

I haven't seen any real news other than the Greek exit which should affect BTC as much as it affects LTC - if it has a major impact at all.

BTC goes up 2.3%, LTC up 20%.   Euro is actually up 2.3%.

At Bitfinex about 30% of the LTC shorts are closed since yesterday.

Had two orders that were really intended for spikes.  The first one triggered and I shorted another 200 LTC at 3.48.   Didn't hit my second one at 3.98.

[Amph]

ltc chart is very akin to bitcoin, and this should be a good example of what is awaiting bitcoin with the halving, but the price will be more high than a mere x2 boost, in the case of litecoin

because their supply isn't equal and the reward is still at 25 for ltc, those that are really thinking that the bitcoin's halving will not bring a rise, are not paying proper attention

[nrd525]

NMC 4h chart (zoomed out to smallest candles) looks very similar to LTC on bitcoinwisdom.  Both look like they reached the peak of the Elliott waves.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/nmcbtc

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

I'd be very careful with shorting alts right now. I still remember how it burned me in 2013 when LTC went to $48
Though I don't expect such a pump to happen, but I didn't expect it back then as well

yyyep, that was huge! however such pumps will never happen I guess

[nrd525]

My LTC short is going badly =(

94k LTC shorts left on BFX.  The down side of not being margin called is that...

At least I canceled my 3.98 short order.

I need BTC to go up at least half as fast as LTC to break even.

[ejinte]

My LTC short is going badly =(

94k LTC shorts left on BFX.  The down side of not being margin called is that...

At least I canceled my 3.98 short order.

I need BTC to go up at least half as fast as LTC to break even.

take your lose sir

[RoadTrain]

@nrd525,
I suggest using any opportunity to cut your position. Not necessarily closing it in full, but lowering the risks.
PS. That's based on the premise that LTC is gonna go considerably down soon. That may or may not be the case.
PPS. I had a 10% loss on shorting LTC yesterday, I did close the position. My losses would be a lot larger if I didn't.

[Chef Ramsay]

 I told you that shorting litecoin was foolhardy at this point. Go long and then some long, esp on btc and ltc.

[nrd525]

Thanks for all the advice. You're confirming my idea that the LTC is at a peak =)

(I am long on BTC.  And also have other assets - so I'm not doing a trade that will ruin me by any means.)


Past 24 hours: LTC/BTC up 5%, PPC up 8%, NMC up 19.5%, and BTC/USD up only 2%

Past 30 days: LTC/BTC up 116%, PPC up 58%, NMC up 91%, and BTC/USD up only 13%.

Do you disagree that LTC is in a bubble? Or do you just think it is safer to not short the bubble?

I think things are going to be crazy until the Greece situation is resolved.  I don't think the underlying economic factors are nearly as big as the psychological ones.


Even in the crazy fall 2013 bubble, LTC went from $1.50 to $48 (30x), and Bitcoin from $100 to $1100 (11x).  So this time the ratio of LTC's gains to BTC seem excessive and indicator of a pump that will collapse.


On the other hand, if LTC was really at a peak - I'd expect sharper rises and falls.  Maybe the resistance is coming from people who have learned to recognize an alt-coin pump.

[tarmi]

Do you disagree that LTC is in a bubble?

yes, it is a bubble in my humble opinion.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

You do hate LTC don't you? lol 

Me too 

I adore it!

[nrd525]

I'm thinking that after the Greece situation is partially resolved, and LTC halving occurs - that it will fall back to $2.  Of course there could always be another pump before then.  BTC might fall a much smaller amount after Greece situation (like 2-10%).

[tarmi]

I'm thinking that after the Greece situation is partially resolved, and LTC halving occurs - that it will fall back to $2.  Of course there could always be another pump before then.  BTC might fall a much smaller amount after Greece situation (like 2-10%).

agreed. everybody waiting for the outcome of the greek referendum and hoping that somehow that will cause another rally will be the trigger for the next big ltc dump. it doesnt matter which option will win.

my money is shorting heavily ltc.