[XMR] Monero Speculation

[saddambitcoin]

Code:

  
var api = "http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_transaction_data/";
var res = $.ajax({url: api + hash, type: 'GET', async: false});

the only data sent to MoneroBlocks API is the tx hash.

[1715391854]

1715391854

[1715391854]

1715391854

[1715391854]

1715391854

[1715391854]

1715391854

[luigi1111]

Friendly reminder for everyone, the work and activity on the GUI can be followed here:

https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity

https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core

https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero

Aha, so work has already fully started. Thanks for sharing the links.

May I suggest posting the links to the funding page as well, since I was under the (naive) impression nothing was happening yet.

Except from https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero, they are all in the OP. I'll ask othe if he can add that one as well.

Will the new GUI offer the ability to use the view key function for Monero cold storage wallets?

I think it will, I'll ask about it later. Also, you can already check if your funds arrived safely at your (cold) wallet address using this tool:

First, make sure to save the transaction hash shapeshift, an exchange, or simplewallet provided you with. Subsequently, you can use the following tool:

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/checktx.html

Fill in your address, the viewkey that belongs to the address (Moneroaddress provides this), and the transaction hash of the specific transaction. It should show you something like: "These outputs are yours". The sum of those outputs should be equal to the amount that was sent. I suggest using a test amount first to try out the tool and get a bit familiar with it.

Using this tool you can be certain that your funds arrived safely at your wallet.

That tool is perfect. Thank you for making me aware of it. I trust the message below but want to learn how it works.

Note: this site operates completely on client-side Javascript; no data is ever sent to the web server.
Big thanks to MoneroBlocks for the transaction data API, without which this page would not work.

If this means no data is sent to the http://xmrtests.llcoins.net server what about the MoneroBlocks server? Data must be pulled from MoneroBlocks in order for the viewkey to work. What data must be sent to MoneroBlocks to make that happen? Does MoneroBlocks have the ability to associate viewkeys with the IP address of the party making a request for data?

Code:

  
var api = "http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_transaction_data/";
var res = $.ajax({url: api + hash, type: 'GET', async: false});

the only data sent to MoneroBlocks API is the tx hash.

Correct. MoneroBlocks can also see that the request comes from that website.

[letsplayagame]

Friendly reminder for everyone, the work and activity on the GUI can be followed here:

https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity

https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core

https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero

Aha, so work has already fully started. Thanks for sharing the links.

May I suggest posting the links to the funding page as well, since I was under the (naive) impression nothing was happening yet.

Except from https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero, they are all in the OP. I'll ask othe if he can add that one as well.

Will the new GUI offer the ability to use the view key function for Monero cold storage wallets?

I think it will, I'll ask about it later. Also, you can already check if your funds arrived safely at your (cold) wallet address using this tool:

First, make sure to save the transaction hash shapeshift, an exchange, or simplewallet provided you with. Subsequently, you can use the following tool:

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/checktx.html

Fill in your address, the viewkey that belongs to the address (Moneroaddress provides this), and the transaction hash of the specific transaction. It should show you something like: "These outputs are yours". The sum of those outputs should be equal to the amount that was sent. I suggest using a test amount first to try out the tool and get a bit familiar with it.

Using this tool you can be certain that your funds arrived safely at your wallet.

That tool is perfect. Thank you for making me aware of it. I trust the message below but want to learn how it works.

Note: this site operates completely on client-side Javascript; no data is ever sent to the web server.
Big thanks to MoneroBlocks for the transaction data API, without which this page would not work.

If this means no data is sent to the http://xmrtests.llcoins.net server what about the MoneroBlocks server? Data must be pulled from MoneroBlocks in order for the viewkey to work. What data must be sent to MoneroBlocks to make that happen? Does MoneroBlocks have the ability to associate viewkeys with the IP address of the party making a request for data?

Code:

  
var api = "http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_transaction_data/";
var res = $.ajax({url: api + hash, type: 'GET', async: false});

the only data sent to MoneroBlocks API is the tx hash.

Correct. MoneroBlocks can also see that the request comes from that website.

Perfect. That is exactly the answer I was hoping for.

[smoothie]

It feeds my self-interest to get the highest possible interest for my loans. If I stab someone to the back, what shall I expect to get back? Praises? I think others will stab me also so it is my best interest to play nicely so to say...

For me it is simply important to get the coins employed as much as possible but at the highest possible rate, not at minimum interest.

-cartel talk-

I feel very uncomfortable reading this. It opens our flank to all kinds of attacks. From troll polemics to more serious legal issues, of which not the least is legal action against the exchange.

Strangely, I am not feeling that uncomfortable.
Cartels are something that in the free world should be able to form. Personally I am not that afraid of troll attacks since I do not simply care, however I see your point, some people might be more sensitive to internet trolls in a way that those trolls might have some power over them. Generally speaking, smart money people however do not care so much about trolls screaming from their caves.

To lend XMR to shorters is basically the only thing one can do with XMR in real world. Personally I am interested in investing to assets that bring me passive income but are also backed by a collateral. XMR loans in Polo is such asset.

You conveniently left out the legal issues. We should also be able to grow weed in a free world but that doesn't make it so.

You admitted to your self interest upthread  so no point in discussing this. You'd probably sell your cat to a specialties restaurant if the price were right.

Lastly, no one is saying you shouldn't lend your XMR and earn money with it. Publicly discussing the formation of a cartel is a whole different issue.

thanks for the laugh for today buddy LOL 

[ArticMine]

...

Strangely, I am not feeling that uncomfortable.
Cartels are something that in the free world should be able to form. Personally I am not that afraid of troll attacks since I do not simply care, however I see your point, some people might be more sensitive to internet trolls in a way that those trolls might have some power over them. Generally speaking, smart money people however do not care so much about trolls screaming from their caves.

To lend XMR to shorters is basically the only thing one can do with XMR in real world. Personally I am interested in investing to assets that bring me passive income but are also backed by a collateral. XMR loans in Polo is such asset.

This depends on how good the collateral is. XMR loans backed by DASH or even ETH can be very scary. A sharp spike in XMR/XBT could easily provoke a a sharp drop in DASH/XBT creating a double loss for the short XMR position. This has happened before in the spring of last year where a sharp drop in DASH/XBT over the Darkcoin/Dash re-branding caused a sharp rise in XMR/XBT.

Edit: Cartels are a terrible idea, not only can they be illegal in most jurisdictions, they undermine the very essence of a free market; namely competition.

[newb4now]

...

Strangely, I am not feeling that uncomfortable.
Cartels are something that in the free world should be able to form. Personally I am not that afraid of troll attacks since I do not simply care, however I see your point, some people might be more sensitive to internet trolls in a way that those trolls might have some power over them. Generally speaking, smart money people however do not care so much about trolls screaming from their caves.

To lend XMR to shorters is basically the only thing one can do with XMR in real world. Personally I am interested in investing to assets that bring me passive income but are also backed by a collateral. XMR loans in Polo is such asset.

This depends on how good the collateral is. XMR loans backed by DASH or even ETH can be very scary. A sharp spike in XMR/XBT could easily provoke a a sharp drop in DASH/XBT creating a double loss for the short XMR position. This has happened before in the spring of last year where a sharp drop in DASH/XBT over the Darkcoin/Dash re-branding caused a sharp rise in XMR/XBT.

Edit: Cartels are a terrible idea, not only can they be illegal in most jurisdictions, they undermine the very essence of a free market; namely competition.

I agree that cartels are a bad idea. Each person is free to lend at any interest rate they choose or not lend at all.

[americanpegasus]

It would be interesting if you could borrow Monero at a lower interest rate (dust), only to turn around and lend it out at a higher interest rate.

[Hueristic]

It feeds my self-interest to get the highest possible interest for my loans. If I stab someone to the back, what shall I expect to get back? Praises? I think others will stab me also so it is my best interest to play nicely so to say...

For me it is simply important to get the coins employed as much as possible but at the highest possible rate, not at minimum interest.

-cartel talk-

I feel very uncomfortable reading this. It opens our flank to all kinds of attacks. From troll polemics to more serious legal issues, of which not the least is legal action against the exchange.

Strangely, I am not feeling that uncomfortable.
Cartels are something that in the free world should be able to form. Personally I am not that afraid of troll attacks since I do not simply care, however I see your point, some people might be more sensitive to internet trolls in a way that those trolls might have some power over them. Generally speaking, smart money people however do not care so much about trolls screaming from their caves.

To lend XMR to shorters is basically the only thing one can do with XMR in real world. Personally I am interested in investing to assets that bring me passive income but are also backed by a collateral. XMR loans in Polo is such asset.

You conveniently left out the legal issues. We should also be able to grow weed in a free world but that doesn't make it so.

You admitted to your self interest upthread  so no point in discussing this. You'd probably sell your cat to a specialties restaurant if the price were right.

Lastly, no one is saying you shouldn't lend your XMR and earn money with it. Publicly discussing the formation of a cartel is a whole different issue.

How is OPEC overcoming the legal issues?
There are places where you can grow weed freely. At least in Somalia there is no governement so at least over there pretty much everything is legal. I am sure there are other countries in the world that one can grow weed as well without too much legal hassle.
Basically, if I am not able to get enough interest, I simply can withdraw my Moneros to my personal walletc which in turn forces the rates to rise. So, with cartel or without cartel, the rate has to rise IMO. The current rates are not attractive enough to feed my greed.

Just an FYI almost everyone that has lost money on exchanges being hacked or for whatever reason has because they were greedy. The longer you coins on a centralized system the higher you will lose all your profits as well as your investment. Your Risk/Reward is seriously skewed. That being said I do trust Polo, but lets say it was sold tomorrow. Would we even know? would whoever bought it be as trustworthy as those that hold it now? I would personally find it amusing if a hacker stole all exchange wallets and sent them to a burn address.

I think the longer the consolidation period, the higher the price will be after the consolidation. Of course Monero has some intrisic value.

And that effect is compounded by the declining emission.

Code:

date	       coins	          new	        inflation	avg reward
21.02.2016	 11,151,221 	 10,033 	0.09%	          6.967361

Next year subsidies fall below 4XMR/block!   

Boy time flies! That emission doesn't look as deadly anymore does it? What say you guys that were ascared of it last year? I'm sure it attributed to the price decline but I'm sure it helped distribution.


@opennux I know your busting balls but it doesn't discount his point.

[hitchingAride]

Is it worth it to lend out some of my xmr on poloniex?

[dEBRUYNE]

Is it worth it to lend out some of my xmr on poloniex?

Perhaps at some higher rates, not really worth it if you lend out some at low rates. It only gives the shorters a good opportunity.

[dEBRUYNE]

MAAM #4: Monero Ask Anything Monday

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/46yluu/maam_4_monero_ask_anything_monday/

[hitchingAride]

Is it worth it to lend out some of my xmr on poloniex?

Perhaps at some higher rates, not really worth it if you lend out some at low rates. It only gives the shorters a good opportunity.

Yes I should increase my rates hopefully give the shorters a slightly harder time.

[americanpegasus]

I think it will, I'll ask about it later. Also, you can already check if your funds arrived safely at your (cold) wallet address using this tool:

First, make sure to save the transaction hash shapeshift, an exchange, or simplewallet provided you with. Subsequently, you can use the following tool:

http://xmrtests.llcoins.net/checktx.html

Fill in your address, the viewkey that belongs to the address, and the transaction hash of the specific transaction. It should show you something like: "These outputs are yours". The sum of those outputs should be equal to the amount that was sent. I suggest using a test amount first to try out the tool and get a bit familiar with it.

Using this tool you can be certain that your funds arrived safely at your wallet.

Forget everything else.  This is my Monero killer app of the month!  Thanks!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it worth it to lend out some of my xmr on poloniex?

Perhaps at some higher rates, not really worth it if you lend out some at low rates. It only gives the shorters a good opportunity.

Yes I should increase my rates hopefully give the shorters a slightly harder time.

Yup, shorters really do not care to close their positions as long as they get their loans at these ridiculously low rates. I just adjusted my rates also, increased the interest rates of some loan parts by 300 %!!!

But also I am giving out loans for longer periods (like 40-60 days).

[RustyNoman]

Yup, shorters really do not care to close their positions as long as they get their loans at these ridiculously low rates. I just adjusted my rates also, increased the interest rates of some loan parts by 300 %!!!

But also I am giving out loans for longer periods (like 40-60 days).

How much is your interest rate now? Does anybody take out your loans?

I think the price is still quite low.

[rpietila]

Is it worth it to lend out some of my xmr on poloniex?

Economically, the benefit of lending is the following 4 components:

* Opportunity cost
* Interest income
* Default risk
* External factors.

1. Opportunity cost is that when you lend moneros, you cannot do anything else with them. This is very low for most people, because they would anyway not do anything.

2. What the investment promises to pay.

3. How likely it is that you don't get the money back, or don't get it in full, or have insecurity or delay in getting it back.

4. Helping someone with the loan is a positive externality, as is getting XMR markets bigger. Getting someone into debt or "giving ammo to shorters" are negative. These factors compound in value for big players (such as loaning out 1,000,000 XMR cheaply and then buying them on the market, trapping the shorters - this may wreck the market (exchange defaulting) or kindle much new interest in XMR. (Example of a short squeeze IRL.)


In altcoin markets, I think it is preferable to think of returns as weekly. Annual returns require difficult compunding in every stage, while weekly percentages are so low they can just be summed, without loss of much accuracy.

1. I'd say opportunity cost per week is between -0.10% or 0.10% for most (between -5% to 5% APR). It can be positive if loaning out the money saves you of trouble of storing it for instance.

2. Don't know in Poloniex, but in CK if you buy the bonds with weekly return (consols) the return is 0.57% (in addition, they have increased in value but they may also decrease so let's not account for that).

3. Exchanges have a quite short life expectancy, and the probability of losing all your money is staggeringly high. Even if we expect an exchange to live 5 years on average (which none of them has done so far!), the weekly risk of loss is -0.40%. Estimating the default risk carefully is very important and very difficult. Scam exchanges live a few months and scam lenders have no interest in paying back at all. Even good borrowers, such as governments, corporations and upstanding people, have an annual historical default risk of 1-3%, with some recovery value from guarantees (put -0.02...-0.06 in weekly).

4. Every action in market is good for growing the market imo so participating in the loan market (or investing in CK) is a net positive, but for a small player this is only a small factor perhaps 0.05%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( 0.0 + 0.57 - 0.4 + 0.05 ) % = +0.22% per week positive return. Calculate yours!

[auswalk]

I would just avoid Monero until the tools are built short term unless you are an investor trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

But in 6 months if maybe a race for the buyers windows.

[generalizethis]

I would just avoid Monero until the tools are built short term unless you are an investor trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

But in 6 months if maybe a race for the buyers windows.

This depends if you are an early adopter, an investor, or a trader. An early adopter wants to be the one who helps develop the technology with little regard to profit, while an investor is looking at risks versus profit analysis, and the trader is just trying to find the hot coin and ride the wave.

I came into Monero as an investor, but the community has turned me into an early adopter, which is far more rewarding (though I still want to see Monero become both a great investment and the IT coin, but that has as much more to do with seeing your work succeed than it does seeing your bank account succeed). Gingeropolis and I both entered at about the same time, and I wish I could make the technical contributions that he has made in that time, but thankfully CryptoKingdom has given me the chance to use my gifts at strategy to help Monero--even if it's in an somewhat indirect way. Most people in the Monero community do what they can and as much as they can, which is why this coin is so strong.

[dEBRUYNE]

Crosspost:

Alice Homemade: first restaurant in the world to accept XMR?

On Friday I had the pleasure to make a real-life XMR transaction with what is probably the first restaurant to accept Monero in the world: "Alice Homemade".   
I ordered two salads to be delivered at my home, and paid the delivery man (who also happened to be the restaurant owner) 12 XMR. There is also a 20% discount if you pay with Monero, and on top of the discount I also got two delicious tiramisus, because... that was history in the making!    

(Note I ordered food many times before while paying in XMR. Where I live there is a big website that accept Bitcoin and does the interface between end-customers and hundreds of restaurants, so usually I just pay that website in XMR through https://xmr.to - the restaurants in this case don't even know the command is paid in BTC, even less in XMR).   

But this time this was different, this restaurant Alice Homemade is now accepting Monero directly! (They were also one of the first in the country to accept bitcoins). Here is the Monero transaction for my two salads: 68be427ec0e6c09961522e444e862b643a86ed0f36aaca170c2116686b5d2f44   

They don't have a website, here is the location and some pictures on google.
   
If you pass by (it's close to Brussels international airport), show them some love    

[kurious]

Crosspost:

Alice Homemade: first restaurant in the world to accept XMR?

On Friday I had the pleasure to make a real-life XMR transaction with what is probably the first restaurant to accept Monero in the world: "Alice Homemade".   
I ordered two salads to be delivered at my home, and paid the delivery man (who also happened to be the restaurant owner) 12 XMR. There is also a 20% discount if you pay with Monero, and on top of the discount I also got two delicious tiramisus, because... that was history in the making!    

(Note I ordered food many times before while paying in XMR. Where I live there is a big website that accept Bitcoin and does the interface between end-customers and hundreds of restaurants, so usually I just pay that website in XMR through https://xmr.to - the restaurants in this case don't even know the command is paid in BTC, even less in XMR).   

But this time this was different, this restaurant Alice Homemade is now accepting Monero directly! (They were also one of the first in the country to accept bitcoins). Here is the Monero transaction for my two salads: 68be427ec0e6c09961522e444e862b643a86ed0f36aaca170c2116686b5d2f44   

They don't have a website, here is the location and some pictures on google.
   
If you pass by (it's close to Brussels international airport), show them some love    

Monero's pizza moment (appropriately in a classier salad choice).  I'm keeping this one for five years hence ;-)