[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

To me it looks like in 2016 Monero has resurrected from the death.
A lot of new people commenting here, the price trendline is turning into bullish (for obvious reasons).
We might see pretty hefty price tag on Monero a couple years from now. However, still Monero is cheap like crab. Definetely Monero is a great buy at any price under 100 usd per coin. Later once people outside of crypto discovers it, the good buying point is in thousands of dollars etc.

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...
If the issue is scaling, it effects us all eventually. If we're lucky.

No. There is a fundamental difference here between Bticoin and Monero. Monero has an adaptive blocksize limit that can scale with market demand by increasing supply for a price, while Bitcoin does not. In Bitcoin's case it does not matter that processing power, bandwidth, storage costs etc plunge in real price as they have over the last 60 years the blocksize is still fixed and requires a hard fork in order to change it. Bitcoin has hard coded the current technology into the protocol while Monero has not.

I always come back to the credit card analogy. It is like expecting the current transaction levels of the VISA network to work using the tabulating machine and punched card technology of the late 1940's / early 1950's. This is when the the Diners Club payment card was conceived and the first cards were issued. Bitcoin can easily become the Diner's Club of crypto-currency, while Monero at least is not prevented from becoming the VISA or MasterCard of crypto-currency.

What does it mean?

[smooth]

To me it looks like in 2016 Monero has resurrected from the death.

Death is taking things way to far. Monero has been at worst in the top 15-20 market cap coins (out of hundreds and probably 50-100 with at least somewhat active development) for virtually its lifetime and that is including some absurdly fake market caps among those above it. Monero also has always had very active development.

Not having a lot of fireworks every day is not at all the same as dead. Have a little patience.

[smooth]

...
If the issue is scaling, it effects us all eventually. If we're lucky.

No. There is a fundamental difference here between Bticoin and Monero. Monero has an adaptive blocksize limit that can scale with market demand by increasing supply for a price, while Bitcoin does not. In Bitcoin's case it does not matter that processing power, bandwidth, storage costs etc plunge in real price as they have over the last 60 years the blocksize is still fixed and requires a hard fork in order to change it. Bitcoin has hard coded the current technology into the protocol while Monero has not.

I always come back to the credit card analogy. It is like expecting the current transaction levels of the VISA network to work using the tabulating machine and punched card technology of the late 1940's / early 1950's. This is when the the Diners Club payment card was conceived and the first cards were issued. Bitcoin can easily become the Diner's Club of crypto-currency, while Monero at least is not prevented from becoming the VISA or MasterCard of crypto-currency.

What does it mean?

It means exactly what he said. The block size is dynamic and it requires someone (users and/or miners) to pay a penalty to incentivize increasing it. So only with increasing demand and activity does it make sense to increase the block size, and with increasing demand and activity it probably does make sense to increase it (balanced against the resource costs of doing so). This excludes malicious attackers with >50% of the hash rate, but of course we all know they have plenty of ways to attack a coin if they want to.

[ArticMine]

...

What does it mean?

It is mentioned in the Cryptonote White Paper https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf section 6.2.2. (Please note that the formula quoted there is for the Penalty not the NewReward). This is a fundamental difference from Bitcoin. I covered this issue further back. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg13591241#msg13591241.  Also the tail emission is needed here since without a base emission to penalize the penalty function will not work. Most people think of Monero as an Anonymity / Privacy / Fungibility coin, but this blocksize scaling issue is critically important.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...
If the issue is scaling, it effects us all eventually. If we're lucky.

No. There is a fundamental difference here between Bticoin and Monero. Monero has an adaptive blocksize limit that can scale with market demand by increasing supply for a price, while Bitcoin does not. In Bitcoin's case it does not matter that processing power, bandwidth, storage costs etc plunge in real price as they have over the last 60 years the blocksize is still fixed and requires a hard fork in order to change it. Bitcoin has hard coded the current technology into the protocol while Monero has not.

I always come back to the credit card analogy. It is like expecting the current transaction levels of the VISA network to work using the tabulating machine and punched card technology of the late 1940's / early 1950's. This is when the the Diners Club payment card was conceived and the first cards were issued. Bitcoin can easily become the Diner's Club of crypto-currency, while Monero at least is not prevented from becoming the VISA or MasterCard of crypto-currency.

What does it mean?

It means exactly what he said. The block size is dynamic and it requires someone (users and/or miners) to pay a penalty to incentivize increasing it. So only with increasing demand and activity does it make sense to increase the block size, and with increasing demand and activity it probably does make sense to increase it (balanced against the resource costs of doing so). This excludes malicious attackers with >50% of the hash rate, but of course we all know they have plenty of ways to attack a coin if they want to.

Interesting. Thanks. [/Lurk]

[iCEBREAKER]

To me it looks like in 2016 Monero has resurrected from the death.
A lot of new people commenting here, the price trendline is turning into bullish (for obvious reasons).
We might see pretty hefty price tag on Monero a couple years from now. However, still Monero is cheap like crab. Definetely Monero is a great buy at any price under 100 usd per coin. Later once people outside of crypto discovers it, the good buying point is in thousands of dollars etc.

There was some trenchant analysis in (IIRC) Frap.doc's old Gold thread about how Bitcoin's near-death experiences were critical for and instrumental in future growth.

Besides the chaos/systems/probability theory stuff about adversity and antifragility, there is the economic instantiation of the same principle.

Even in biology, we observe the necessity of pruning vines and peach trees to ensure the next harvest maximizes yield and quality.

The weak hands do us no favors; the sooner they are removed from the marketplace the better.

Monero in weak hands is a form of resource misallocation, which by definition impairs positive development.

At this point, with the GUI, multisig, and RingCT coming Sooon, there is no excuse to be holding bags of shitty fake-anon coins like Dash (especially after Professor Shen's spectacular destruction of Shadowcash).

Monero is under a dollar.  What the fuck are you waiting for?  Christmas?

[bitebits]

...
If the issue is scaling, it effects us all eventually. If we're lucky.

No. There is a fundamental difference here between Bticoin and Monero. Monero has an adaptive blocksize limit that can scale with market demand by increasing supply for a price, while Bitcoin does not. In Bitcoin's case it does not matter that processing power, bandwidth, storage costs etc plunge in real price as they have over the last 60 years the blocksize is still fixed and requires a hard fork in order to change it. Bitcoin has hard coded the current technology into the protocol while Monero has not.

I always come back to the credit card analogy. It is like expecting the current transaction levels of the VISA network to work using the tabulating machine and punched card technology of the late 1940's / early 1950's. This is when the the Diners Club payment card was conceived and the first cards were issued. Bitcoin can easily become the Diner's Club of crypto-currency, while Monero at least is not prevented from becoming the VISA or MasterCard of crypto-currency.

What happens to the blocksize when the market demand decreases again? Will the blocksize shrink back to a blocksize that fits the amount of tx/s, or will it keep having the blocksize it once got during a peak?

[bitebits]

Monero is under a dollar.  What the fuck are you waiting for?  Christmas?

On a not so serious note, The Duke already knew that waiting for Chrismas is a very bad idea  .

[americanpegasus]

Monero is under a dollar.  What the fuck are you waiting for?  Christmas?

By Christmas, my guess is Monero will be between $5 to $7

[ArticMine]

...
What happens to the blocksize when the market demand decreases again? Will the blocksize shrink back to a blocksize that fits the amount of tx/s, or will it keep having the blocksize it once got during a peek?

It shrinks back.

Edit: The penalty is not "recovered" in any way when the blocksize shrinks back and would apply as before if it climbs back up.

[ArticMine]

...
By Christmas, my guess is Monero will be between $5 to $7

I am not even going to try to speculate on what the XMR/USD rate is going to be 10 months from now.

[iCEBREAKER]

By Christmas, my guess is Monero will be between $5 to $7

I am not even going to try to speculate on what the XMR/USD rate is going to be 10 months from now.

You seem to be in the wrong sub.  Did you get lost on the way to the Buttcoiner's Honey Badger Obituary thread?  

10 months speculation is like, the minimum around here.

Now tell us how many 100s of oz of gold each XMR will be worth (in your opinion) in 10 years.  

[TrueCryptonaire]

By Christmas, my guess is Monero will be between $5 to $7

I am not even going to try to speculate on what the XMR/USD rate is going to be 10 months from now.

You seem to be in the wrong sub.  Did you get lost on your way to the Buttcoiner's Honey Badger Obituary thread?  

10 months speculation is like, the minimum around here.

Now tell us how many 100s of oz of gold each XMR will be worth (in your opinion) in 10 years.  

Short term predictions are harder than longer term.
Long term it is probably pretty binary:
1) A huge success
2) A complete loss.

There probably is not anything between since the extremes tend to gravitate Monero to either direction.
Last weekend I honestly thought it will go to 0.004 but then suddenly some shaky hand decided to pour his/her bag on our heads and shoulders and the market cooled down for a week.

Now it is great time to readjust the interest rates in lending markets. Looks like there are a lot of demand for Moneros right now for shorting purposes. Some kind of "OPEC" style of cartel could be formed in lending markets. 

[smoothie]

Large price rises can be helpful, because they enable you to say things like "I just turned $13,000 into $25,000 over the weekend."  
  
That gets people's attention.

As well, we have great graphics than can help illustrate why Monero is going to be a very big deal in the future. Of note is the professional chart showing how Monero is essentially the holy grail of money. (https://i.imgur.com/E3KA0Ug)

I've been talking about crypto relentlessly for years now, and I know I've likely annoyed the hell out of some people, but enthusiasm is contagious: if you believe in Monero like I do, you need to have it too. Your enthusiasm needs to be so bright that it inspires others to want to talk about it too - that's how a movement is created.

Monero might be a very real thing, and it might be one of the greatest technological advancements in the history of our civilization, but if people don't know about it... It is meaningless. The problem we face is that Cryptonote is so intricate that it becomes a challenge to express to the average person why this matters in their life.

But it is possible. More than ever, citizens everywhere are excited about money and rethinking ways to get involved with it. I hear more stock market 'watercooler chat' now than I've heard since 2007. We need to recognize that this is not some obscure nerd toy - you have the extreme fortune of being involved with one of the largest financial networks on Earth before anyone else knows about it. Don't keep that secret to yourself!

There are a lot of great arguments to help the average person understand why this is important: "Don't you think the average wealthy individual will be interested in a secure and private financial network that lets them store their wealth where no one can touch it or track them?", "If the smartest people in the world didn't think this was possible 20 years ago, don't you think there is likely a lot of powerful interests carefully considering how to best use this powerful invention?", "People thought Bitcoin was foolish too, but it entered 2013 at $15 each and ended 2013 at $750 each", etc.

In fact, a few people have even expressed interest in owning some Monero. Of course they have gotten the standard warnings: "I'll help you, but realize this is extremely risky, and you may lose every cent you put in...." But they seem to understand the risks and want to play.

Maybe we will all lose our money, and maybe not. It's a risk, and risks are necessary in the financial world to grow. I know this though: there are few, if any, more pure and honest economic projects out there than this. The fact that it just might have the largest growth potential of any asset in the world is icing on the cake.

Don't promise people the moon: you can't promise them that. Promise them a chance to be part of the initial cadre of what may become the future financial Internet, because that is an honest statement. Let your excitement be so virulent that others catch it too. We are, whether we realize it or not, by virtue or circumstance, one of the most important people on Earth.

Let's act like it.

The part about wealthy people wanting to store their money without being tracked is probably true.

The other side of the coin is when a wealthy person looks at monero they probably see a new technology that needs to stand the test of time.

The third thing is, they see the marketcap of Monero and begin to laugh.
If your networth is more than the marketcap of the coin, why on earth you should put (most or all of) your money into it?

A possible valid view point. But not universal.

Some wealthy people don't always look at market cap as an indicator of "I should buy in". Some actually have foresight as well.

[iCEBREAKER]

Short term predictions are harder than longer term.
Long term it is probably pretty binary:
1) A huge success
2) A complete loss.

There probably is not anything between since the extremes tend to gravitate Monero to either direction.
Last weekend I honestly thought it will go to 0.004 but then suddenly some shaky hand decided to pour his/her bag on our heads and shoulders and the market cooled down for a week.

There is meta-speculation about exactly what (for Monero, Bitcoin, gold, silver, and fiat) constitutes the "short" and "long" terms.

Are those terms strictly temporal?  Or are they the product of time and causality multiplicands?

IOW, is the medium term defined by 'from now until Kondratiev Winter Solstice' or just by volume of calendar months?

I'd agree that the medium term is demarcated by status quo and until such time as Bitcoin+Monero achieve huge success or suffer complete loss.  The temporal duration is arbitrary and may be factored out.

When I say "long term" I am referring to the post-fiat Great Hereafter of crypto ascendancy (Cryptopia) or the unmentionable Black Mirror alternative, not some random number of solar/lunar cycles.

[RustyNoman]

By Christmas, my guess is Monero will be between $5 to $7

I know the bitcoin price will rise in the future. But I do not think it will be $7 in 10 months. No big whale is involved.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Short term predictions are harder than longer term.
Long term it is probably pretty binary:
1) A huge success
2) A complete loss.

There probably is not anything between since the extremes tend to gravitate Monero to either direction.
Last weekend I honestly thought it will go to 0.004 but then suddenly some shaky hand decided to pour his/her bag on our heads and shoulders and the market cooled down for a week.

There is meta-speculation about exactly what (for Monero, Bitcoin, gold, silver, and fiat) constitutes the "short" and "long" terms.

Are those terms strictly temporal?  Or are they the product of time and causality multiplicands?

IOW, is the medium term defined by 'from now until Kondratiev Winter Solstice' or just by volume of calendar months?

I'd agree that the medium term is demarcated by status quo and until such time as Bitcoin+Monero achieve huge success or suffer complete loss.  The temporal duration is arbitrary and may be factored out.

When I say "long term" I am referring to the post-fiat Great Hereafter of crypto ascendancy (Cryptopia) or the unmentionable Black Mirror alternative, not some random number of solar/lunar cycles.

Yup.
As Keynes said, in the long run we all are dead.
By long term I mean basically any period over 1 year and in short period 1 year or less.
You are right when it comes to questioning if the development of Monero's price is caused by time or not. There indeed might be someone really big guy (like Winklevoss caliber) saying: "Hey I want to purchase 10 000 000 XMR" or something like this). This can happen in a year or longer than a year. The other alternative is that the community in general starts to earn more income and once allocating the investments that will cause also the increase in the demand of Monero. At current rate of emission (7000 usd/day) even a smaller but consistent increase in the money spent on Monero acquisitions will drive the price up at some point when the weak hands are out from the market.
The latter is longer game, the first one basically can happen  even"overnight" or very short period of time.

Personally I am fine even if the dark markets will find us only in 2020. I have time to waite. My rental units bring me cash on monthly basis, I am working in a side job aside my main job as well so financially I am able to increase my assets even if Monero goes completely to 0. I have pretty large stack (not larger than 100 000 XMR though) but I am not harmed financially because it represents only a part of my entire networth which is growing even now (I am looking currently an appartment deal in Helsinki area which potentially will basically double my rental income if I have courage to take the risk).

[TrueCryptonaire]

To me it looks like in 2016 Monero has resurrected from the death.

Death is taking things way to far. Monero has been at worst in the top 15-20 market cap coins (out of hundreds and probably 50-100 with at least somewhat active development) for virtually its lifetime and that is including some absurdly fake market caps among those above it. Monero also has always had very active development.

Not having a lot of fireworks every day is not at all the same as dead. Have a little patience.

Yes Monero was dead pricewise since fall 2014 when Bitcoinexpress attacked and the dumping war started. Luckily Risto pumped the price to 0.004 a year ago, then we had some hope if 0.004 could be a new rock bottom, but hehold, the price started to fall again. I was able to jump out around 0.003. Now BTC has started slowly creeping back on its feet and hopefully the current bull trend of Monero continues.
When the price is in bull market, and the coin is not own by 1-2 individuals trading it up with each other, it will create a positive loop.
Also, it is only a matter of time once dark markets will find Monero. It might take 1 year or less but most likely it will take longer (even a decade or two).
Speculators and people with wealth love a coin that that appreciates and thus increases their purchasing power.

[smooth]

To me it looks like in 2016 Monero has resurrected from the death.

Death is taking things way to far. Monero has been at worst in the top 15-20 market cap coins (out of hundreds and probably 50-100 with at least somewhat active development) for virtually its lifetime and that is including some absurdly fake market caps among those above it. Monero also has always had very active development.

Not having a lot of fireworks every day is not at all the same as dead. Have a little patience.

Yes Monero was dead pricewise since fall 2014 when Bitcoinexpress attacked and the dumping war started. Luckily Risto pumped the price to 0.004 a year ago, then we had some hope if 0.004 could be a new rock bottom, but hehold, the price started to fall again. I was able to jump out around 0.003. Now BTC has started slowly creeping back on its feet and hopefully the current bull trend of Monero continues.
When the price is in bull market, and the coin is not own by 1-2 individuals trading it up with each other, it will create a positive loop.
Also, it is only a matter of time once dark markets will find Monero. It might take 1 year or less but most likely it will take longer (even a decade or two).
Speculators and people with wealth love a coin that that appreciates and thus increases their purchasing power.

I have a better narrative. (Better in the sense that it at least matches the objective market history.)

First of all the price decline started well before BCX. The trend was steady from the summer highs in 2014 until winter 2014-2015 when it reached the famous "under 25 cents" (<0.001 BTC) lows. If you look at the price action in 2014, BCX had little effect on the trend; it was already well underway by the time his FUD storm started. Even the actual attack on the network (early September) was much the same -- it did not change the trend much if at all.

There was as you say a short pump in early 2015 (maybe that was indeed Risto, I can't say either way). The pump didn't last but the price remained significantly higher (close to double) after the pump than the previous lows for at least six months. Throughout that time period the market cap was steady to slowly increasing, meaning the overall value of the coin and network was not even declining much less dead, but investors who bought in too early were either stuck in a rut, or if they bought at highs, being hurt (at least compared to BTC, though fiat price was steady to increasing for most of that time period) by the ongoing dilution.

Now that emission has declined and interest has picked up a bit, the supply/demand balance has slowly improved and we are seeing some price rises in addition to accelerated market cap growth. Of course there is no way to know whether that will continue, and obviously there can be extreme volatility (in either direction) at any time.