[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

I have to chip in on the GUI.

Using command line for many people - such as anyone non tech-savvy or, say on a Mac - is a totally foreign and too-much-to-ask chore.   Some people (including me) don't like holding a lot on an exchange or in an online wallet either.  For someone who can’t get their head around using command line to make a wallet etc. (and don’t say it’s ‘so easy’ – it isn’t) it makes the project look under-developed, which is not a good reflection on how Monero is.

Yes, a killer payment app or a next generation improvement on a node /QT type wallet would be better to have, but I think not having a GUI is ammo for detractors and an excuse to leave Monero alone for many people.

No, regular people don’t give a shit, true – but we are still competing in the crypto currency space with just a couple of exchanges supporting XMR.  We don’t need to look like we don’t measure up in some way.

‘Why no wallet?’ is a fair ask. Once we have one, it I think it will take away some adoption resistance and be something that helps build the project’s base of long-term accumulators.

[rpietila]

A related question to the issue of centralization of hashing power is this : what is to prevent a coalition of determined, wealthy, well-equipped miners from accumulating the majority of hashing votes for any up-and-coming bitcoin alternatives in the future?

That's what the banksters have done with all the precious metals and later currencies.

With cryptos, the Economic Majority decides. If banksters corner some coin and enough people are pissed off, they just abandon that one and start a new coin.

[persiancat]

Only crypto-anarchists and privacy activists give a shit about smart mining and decentralization. None of that appeals to a wider audience, who just want an easy way to spend their money (not hosting a full node). Do you really think regular people are concerned with those features?

20 years ago, only "crypto-anarchists and privacy activists" actually gave a shit about securing personal data with encryption.

Then some celeb i-pads got hacked, Snowden won an Oscar, and the .gov demanded Apple destroy their own products' utility.

Anyway, here is some light reading on the history of digital cash in science fiction:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150510234837/http://garzikrants.blogspot.com/2013/06/shadowrun-and-bitcoins-roots.html

Note the credsticks are *not* being used to buy coffee.... 

For XMR bookworms out there, you may want to read Cryptonomicon (by Neal Stephenson), an excellent 800-page-turner covering digital currencies, WW2 gold, *nix, true randomness, cryptology, and other fascinating topics.

I myself have read this book at least 8 times.

http://www.amazon.com/Cryptonomicon-Neal-Stephenson/dp/0060512806

I'm fairly sure some of you have already read this book.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Only crypto-anarchists and privacy activists give a shit about smart mining and decentralization. None of that appeals to a wider audience, who just want an easy way to spend their money (not hosting a full node). Do you really think regular people are concerned with those features?

20 years ago, only "crypto-anarchists and privacy activists" actually gave a shit about securing personal data with encryption.

Then some celeb i-pads got hacked, Snowden won an Oscar, and the .gov demanded Apple destroy their own products' utility.

Yet the overwhelming majority continue to use gmail and facebook. Privacy to the average person is only important as long as it's equally convenient. Unfortunately, a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency.

Using command line for many people - such as anyone non tech-savvy or, say on a Mac - is a totally foreign and too-much-to-ask chore.   Some people (including me) don't like holding a lot on an exchange or in an online wallet either.  For someone who can’t get their head around using command line to make a wallet etc. (and don’t say it’s ‘so easy’ – it isn’t) it makes the project look under-developed, which is not a good reflection on how Monero is.

I agree. However, you and the few other enthusiasts who want to run their own node will not mark a significant increase in adoption.

Yes, a killer payment app or a next generation improvement on a node /QT type wallet would be better to have, but I think not having a GUI is ammo for detractors and an excuse to leave Monero alone for many people.

I agree, and I stated that the only real benefit at this point of a core GUI is to eliminate any last remaining "troll ammo."

‘Why no wallet?’ is a fair ask.

No, it's not. We have several wallets. I don't think one more will make a difference. I hope I'm wrong.

[iCEBREAKER]

a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency

Lack of an Official GUI is a barrier to entry for some people and businesses that would otherwise use Monero.

The "compelling" will be done by bank runs and other extreme forms of capital control.

[griffen1102]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.

How many Bitcoin users do you think still use QT?

I run QT still  is that bad?

[Bicmac1973]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.

How many Bitcoin users do you think still use QT?

I run QT still  is that bad?

Me too! Id does what it is supposed to do. For Monero, I also have the CLI wallet installed, but I would never get my wife to use it. But she can handle Bitcoin-QT without problems -> GUI wallet is a big deal IMHO.

BTW: there may be a small, shy triangle breakout. Let's see how it develops.

[wpalczynski]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.

How many Bitcoin users do you think still use QT?

I run QT still  is that bad?

Me too! Id does what it is supposed to do. For Monero, I also have the CLI wallet installed, but I would never get my wife to use it. But she can handle Bitcoin-QT without problems -> GUI wallet is a big deal IMHO.

BTW: there may be a small, shy triangle breakout. Let's see how it develops.

I think us techies tend to underestimate the issue with the CLI wallet.  Its not so much that people can't figure out how to use it, its not difficult and most people could.  But because we are dealing with money there is apprehension about using something that is not super easy and straight forward, users might think they are more likely to screw something up and lose their funds.

[nioc]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.

How many Bitcoin users do you think still use QT?

I run QT still  is that bad?

Me too! Id does what it is supposed to do. For Monero, I also have the CLI wallet installed, but I would never get my wife to use it. But she can handle Bitcoin-QT without problems -> GUI wallet is a big deal IMHO.

BTW: there may be a small, shy triangle breakout. Let's see how it develops.

I think us techies tend to underestimate the issue with the CLI wallet.  Its not so much that people can't figure out how to use it, its not difficult and most people could.  But because we are dealing with money there is apprehension about using something that is not super easy and straight forward, users might think they are more likely to screw something up and lose their funds.

From personal experience, yes to the bolded. 

I found btc 3 years ago because it was useful for playing poker.  Not because of philosophy or being a tech nerd.  Like 99% I was clueless about money.  My first "wallet" was the poker site Seals With Clubs, I kept all my btc there.  Next was Electrum.  Then I found Monero in 2014 while still not knowing much about computers.  The community was very helpful and I was able to set everything up and use it.  I was very cautious so that I wouldn't screw things up.  My own motivation was key.  I didn't download and use the Bitcoin client until a few months ago.  I still mostly use electrum. 

In other news I nibbled @246 while I slept.  This now seems cheap even if it is double from a month ago.  30 day +101.47%  Perspective for those looking for moon.  I speculate these bananas are only going up from here.  inexorable

[Rotator]

I see many people coming to Monero community. There is 5 pages more than yesterday this is very hot coin at the moment. Price rise is certain, with such increase of interest.

My favorite exchange is Bittrex , but i see bigger volume of Monero trade in Poloniex?

[TrueCryptonaire]

To me it looks, every time a dumper is out from the market the coin starts rising. Usually when dumpers are out from the markets, the coin basically is dead (pricewise) or max. has a dead cat bounce.
However, Monero seems to want to climb higher and I see the future of this coin pretty bright and indeed even 100 usd/xmr is realistic this year to achieve.

[TrueCryptonaire]

a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency

Lack of an Official GUI is a barrier to entry for some people and businesses that would otherwise use Monero.

The "compelling" will be done by bank runs and other extreme forms of capital control.

Indeed, you nailed it.

But I am glad it will come out soon (just kidding).  

[BTKC]

I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/

That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).

I do agree with the theory of a long term bear market in Bitcoin. I see this because of the following:
1) There is a widening chasm between the promise of Bitcoin,  a digital and fungible currency that can be used by anyone in the world to pay anyone in the world without the need of an intermediary and the reality a digital non fungible currency that can in practice only be used as a settlement layer between the intermediaries Bitcoin was supposed to replace under the promise.
2) The macro economic factors identified by Dent and Armstrong, namely a 30s type deflationary depression. What Dent got wrong is he failed to take into account the impact of the massive quantitative easing or money printing by the central banks since 2008. This would make a strong fiat currency such as USD attractive.

In the scenario above one would expect an overall bear market in crypto currency; however just as was the case during the 1930s with stocks there will be exceptions that buck the overall trend. Identifying the latter is where the real long term opportunities lie. Monero could very easily buck the trend since objectively it is very well placed to become the promise of Bitcoin. What this would point to for Monero is very strong long term prospects combined with extremely high short to medium term volatility and risk. My personal position is almost exclusively a combination of CAD and XMR with no debt. A convertible fiat other than USD can make sense where a person's expenses are denominated in that currency.

Based on the logic of my prior post, if you are comparing your opportunity cost to US dollars, I think you take some short-term profits on XMR. If you are using BTC as your unit-of-account, then HODL Monero.

Simple.

Interesting. I now use BTC as my unit of account (hopefully at some point XMR). I've been debating whether or not to recoup my initial investment in XMR and just let the profits ride, id still have quite a bit. However im finding it difficult to do so. Seems like in the short term BTC & XMR are going in opposite directions. Think i will take that advice and continue to hodl all my moneroj for the time being  

[iCEBREAKER]

a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency

Lack of an Official GUI is a barrier to entry for some people and businesses that would otherwise use Monero.

The "compelling" will be done by bank runs and other extreme forms of capital control.

Indeed, you nailed it.

But I am glad it will come out soon (just kidding).  

Soonero.

^{Is it true?}

[aminorex]

It seems absurd and at the same time exhilarating at the thought of monero surpassing bitcoin in the near future. It seems possible but not likely.

That can only happen if and when capital controls or other regulatory/enforcement measures are applied to bitcoin transactions sufficiently to make the use of bitcoin undesirable.  That in turn can only happen if the volume of subject moneyflows in Bitcoin rises to a level which forces regulatory/ enforcement action.  That in turn can only happen in conjunction with a substantial rise in the market clearing price of BTC.  Therefore, as an XMR bull, I expect the fiat price of BTC to rise substantially before the BTC price of XMR sees it's most notable increases.

This factor relates to the model term Rm, which I mentioned previously: The proportion of global "white" label moneyflows which XMR denominates.  In my simplest rule of thumb for XMR valuation, I make the pessimistic assumption that it is nigh zero, negligible, on the theory that bootstrapping the market cap to liquidity levels sufficient for white flows to dominate price will first require a dark market uptake phase, in which price is dominated by Rn.  If Bitcoin is taken up, and subsequently rejected, as a means of evading financial repression, a dark market dominates phase will not be required, however:  Bitcoin will achieve the bootstrapping on our behalf.

These bullish scenarios are not mutually exclusive.  If they occur simultaneously, the appreciation rate will be a real head-turner, and bubble spike will be truly amazing.

On the other hand, Cyprus spiked Bitcoin, but Greece not so much.  (Perhaps because of the grey Russian money in Cyprus being more attuned to crypto.) Which specific cataclysms in the fiat world prompt large flows may prove surprising.  Some disappointing failures of XMR or BTC reactions may cause investor defections.   (If a large subsequent price response occurs, that is likely to be a very intense run as well, as defectors rush back.)

[Bicmac1973]

The current price development is kind of interesting. There should still be a lot of open shorts that need to be covered, right? It is a shame that there are no statistics available from Poloniex.  

[aminorex]

The current price development is kind of interesting. There should still be a lot of open shorts that need to be covered, right? It is a shame that there are no statistics available from Poloniex.  

Add up the volume bars.  I expect that with 4 days time any outstanding shorts will see at least one squeeze.

[Quicken]

I just wanted to comment that I agree with all of the points made below. I am a coder, and I have recently been working on user-friendly R Shiny GUI's because most users do not like the command line. wpalczynski's point is particularly important when you consider we could be talking about a significant chunk of someone's savings. Every user needs to be very confident that they won't lose their money. That is a big leap in a new area of technology.

I think us techies tend to underestimate the issue with the CLI wallet.  Its not so much that people can't figure out how to use it, its not difficult and most people could.  But because we are dealing with money there is apprehension about using something that is not super easy and straight forward, users might think they are more likely to screw something up and lose their funds.

a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency

Lack of an Official GUI is a barrier to entry for some people and businesses that would otherwise use Monero.

The "compelling" will be done by bank runs and other extreme forms of capital control.

I have to chip in on the GUI.

Using command line for many people - such as anyone non tech-savvy or, say on a Mac - is a totally foreign and too-much-to-ask chore.   Some people (including me) don't like holding a lot on an exchange or in an online wallet either.  For someone who can’t get their head around using command line to make a wallet etc. (and don’t say it’s ‘so easy’ – it isn’t) it makes the project look under-developed, which is not a good reflection on how Monero is.

Yes, a killer payment app or a next generation improvement on a node /QT type wallet would be better to have, but I think not having a GUI is ammo for detractors and an excuse to leave Monero alone for many people.

No, regular people don’t give a shit, true – but we are still competing in the crypto currency space with just a couple of exchanges supporting XMR.  We don’t need to look like we don’t measure up in some way.

‘Why no wallet?’ is a fair ask. Once we have one, it I think it will take away some adoption resistance and be something that helps build the project’s base of long-term accumulators.

[dEBRUYNE]

New funding idea:

**IMPROVING DEVELOPER GUIDES TO INCLUDE SIMPLEWALLET EXAMPLES**

https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/2504/improving-developer-guides-to-include-simplewallet-examples-and-bitmonerod-methods-and-examples

Up for discussion, hasn't moved to funding required.

[MrGood]

@Johnny Mnenomic

You're either naive or you're just micro-fudding for the sake of a short-term trade.

You can't sell a car by saying "This is a car. Do you want it or not?".

The network is ultimately secured by speculators - people injecting money into the system for purposes of profit. This gives rise to a social foundation from which all other objectives can follow.

Look at Dogecoin: Stick a dog on a coin and say "moon!" and suddenly it has a $50 million market cap. Does it work? Fuck no - it was technologically crippled and would have remained that way had Litecoin not saved it. But who cares about any of that if it's going to make you rich.

Speculation energy drives the narrative and facilitates the technological and social fundamentals by way of increased interest.

Show me a coin that is an exception to that. Bitcoin is the same. And so too is Monero.

I'd hazard a guess that many early adopters of Monero are here because they read a single post by someone who looked vaguely intelligent with a nice suit - a post that promised the moon no less.

The fact that the person turned out to be a little bit batshit crazy and started talking about the coming of the Messiah as well as a whole load of other crap is neither here nor there.

The result is that Monero now has a market cap of over $10 million, the 5th biggest crypto community overall, and the biggest community in terms of similarly untraceable competitors.

Whether you realise it or not, this has happened as a consequence of moon-promise which is the predominant driving force of all cryptocurrencies.... at least in terms of caretaking its initial infancy. It doesn't matter when the devs say "Don't buy Monero - it won't make you rich!"... sure I understand why they say that but no-one actually pays attention to it.

So right now, Monero is massively underpriced. People understand that and they are here to profit.

The consequences of that is an incredibly electric community industry that lays down, consolidates and amplifies all concurrent considerations of the tripod - notably the political base and the technological base.

If you're one of the original Monero bods who is used to a small community atmosphere polarised around the kind of techno-geeky pragmatism that says "Meh - it's a GUI - so what?" ... if that's you, then it's time to pull your trousers up, wave the Monero flag and blow a whistle ... because if you don't, everyone else is just about to. The Monero ecosystem has changed and is changing even further.

Don't get caught with your pants down. It's now time for a different type of moon.