[XMR] Monero Speculation

[doc12]

If XMR goes to pre pump levels again, like 300ksats range or lower, it is dead for me and not worth to invest a single penny, because then it is evident that its just a every years BTC-moneymachine for some whales.

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  
The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

First of all: I don't trade, but do speculate now and then.

From experience, maximum pain needs to be reached before going up again. We are not there yet IMHO, this could take weeks / months before a true bottom is reached. Especially when BTC starts to see some upward momentum at the same time.

[sui_generis]

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  
The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

First of all: I don't trade, but do speculate now and then.

From experience, maximum pain needs to be reached before going up again. We are not there yet IMHO, this could take weeks / months before a true bottom is reached. Especially when BTC starts to see some upward momentum at the same time.

Agreed. We haven't reached the "desperation" stage. You can identify that when people start making angry posts accusing Monero of being a scam, saying they lost all their money, etc. I think the trend will be negative until the release of RingCT in January. Even then, I don't think we'll see serious growth until the end of 2017. There's still a lot that needs to be done for Monero to be considered user friendly. In addition to user friendliness concerns, the coin emission is still quite high, about 7500 coins a day.

[sui_generis]

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  
The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

First of all: I don't trade, but do speculate now and then.

From experience, maximum pain needs to be reached before going up again. We are not there yet IMHO, this could take weeks / months before a true bottom is reached. Especially when BTC starts to see some upward momentum at the same time.

Agreed. We haven't reached the "desperation" stage. You can identify that when people start making angry posts accusing Monero of being a scam, saying they lost all their money, etc. I think the trend will be negative until the release of RingCT in January. Even then, I don't think we'll see serious growth until the end of 2017. There's still a lot that needs to be done for Monero to be considered user friendly. In addition to user friendliness concerns, the coin emission is still quite high, about 7500 coins a day.

Emission is not high per XMR price YET. But you are correct, the desperation is still not here but you can already smell some blood just look around this forum  

I like that it declines quite a bit over the next year. Should be well under 4000 coins per day by early 2018. That will make it easier to hit (and hopefully maintain) new heights.

[r.o.o.t]

XMR down 17 % close to 0.01. I already warned here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16421466#msg16421466

... bears reign ...

[N-rG]

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  
The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

First of all: I don't trade, but do speculate now and then.

From experience, maximum pain needs to be reached before going up again. We are not there yet IMHO, this could take weeks / months before a true bottom is reached. Especially when BTC starts to see some upward momentum at the same time.

Agreed. We haven't reached the "desperation" stage. You can identify that when people start making angry posts accusing Monero of being a scam, saying they lost all their money, etc. I think the trend will be negative until the release of RingCT in January. Even then, I don't think we'll see serious growth until the end of 2017. There's still a lot that needs to be done for Monero to be considered user friendly. In addition to user friendliness concerns, the coin emission is still quite high, about 7500 coins a day.

Emission is not high per XMR price YET. But you are correct, the desperation is still not here but you can already smell some blood just look around this forum  

I like that it declines quite a bit over the next year. Should be well under 4000 coins per day by early 2018. That will make it easier to hit (and hopefully maintain) new heights.

lol   this is really so much trash....early 2018, end 2017....

@moneyloser

please donate to an animal rescue center or so, i dont need it, but thanks

To your question:
If you trade: idk atm, ill tell you than.
If you go for a long term investment. Keep them they will be valueable somewhen.

----

Some ppl. here obv. didnt get that there was just an incredible huge FUD campaign against XMR. It was not only the news, it was on reddit and even in the Polo Trollbox that people talked FUD.

The coin was under much pressure, more is actually hardly possible. So maybe consider by yourself if/or how much the coin can now fall.

pps.
somehow I always invest against the trend here  -or is someone here who agrees to me?

[adolf512]

Really insane volumes on poloniex, more than 10% of the total supply during 24 hours, why?

[Hueristic]

The web wallet for Monero, MyMonero run by famed XMR developer FluffyPony, has been unresponsive for several days

Appears to be working fine for me.

Worked for me yesterday.

[Azael]

Whenever an exchange or whatever is hacked there is little way to assess the damage and in the same way it is hard to disprove just about any FUD when it comes to Monero.

[N-rG]

I think I'll even move some more fiat into coins:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/05/global-debt-hits-all-time-high-of-152-trillion-as-imf-warns-of-w/

Moreover there are rumors that italy will leave the EU. Connecting this to other possible exit candiates and all these financial imbalances in the "real world" cryptos are a good choice.

[coins101]

Really insane volumes on poloniex, more than 10% of the total supply during 24 hours, why?

I sold a few coins 

(actually, i did)

[Shiroslullaby]

I wonder where everyone that is abandoning Monero right now will move their coins.
Will they just sit on Bitcoin, or invest in another alt?
There might be some good investment opportunity if everyone decides to go in the same direction with the funds they cashed out of XMR.

[sui_generis]

I wonder where everyone that is abandoning Monero right now will move their coins.
Will they just sit on Bitcoin, or invest in another alt?
There might be some good investment opportunity if everyone decides to go in the same direction with the funds they cashed out of XMR.

It seems like sentiment is building for a BTC spike. Probably best to hold BTC for the time being.

[coins101]

I wonder where everyone that is abandoning Monero right now will move their coins.
Will they just sit on Bitcoin, or invest in another alt?
There might be some good investment opportunity if everyone decides to go in the same direction with the funds they cashed out of XMR.

Try vTorrent: count down to client linked to BitTorrent so millions (well a few thousand to start) of people get paid to seed files.

[wpalczynski]

I wonder where everyone that is abandoning Monero right now will move their coins.
Will they just sit on Bitcoin, or invest in another alt?
There might be some good investment opportunity if everyone decides to go in the same direction with the funds they cashed out of XMR.

Try vTorrent: count down to client linked to BitTorrent so millions (well a few thousand to start) of people get paid to seed files.

Seeding copyrighted files for profit could result in a lot more trouble than just the standard DMCA warnings.

[rangedriver]

Asshole propagandist of the month: Joel Valenzuela (aka thedesertlynx)

[explorer]

Biggest daily volume candle since September 10.

[mfqrs3]

Nice one. So the trend is now set to UP, I'm gona rethink shorting as when all this lies and fud comes to light it will get back to previous levels very quick.

It will be interesting to watch, how much time it will take for people who dumped, to realise that they were scammed and want their coins back

[Anon136]

I call it the CoinTelegraph-Bytecoin-DASH axis of lies and disinformation.

Really? They are just going to throw away what little reputation the have left for that? For what? The accusations wont kill monero because they aren't true but it certainly will destroy all of what it left of cointelegraphs reputation.

[tifozi]

Not sure why DASH troll is getting any attention at all. Good for N-rG I guess   but if he decides (or someone like him) to open another short and posts here for 10 pages repeatedly post after post, then it will go down again and you can swim with him and take advantage if you like.

Even @rangedriver has been upended. The only thing right about any price prediction is that everyone is wrong, I said this a long time ago. Charts are just an arsenal in these guys pockets to take advantage of the noobs.

You have big holders announcing that they sold 200K + coins and the blame is wrongly and swiftly going to a troll that no one is XMR cared about to begin with. You have regulars posting with alt IDs about lies and gloom (and declaring that they are lying) and blame goes to DASH trolls? haha what a smooth operation. 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well my bot made some good shots so I own now thousands of cheap XMR's hehe  
The Campaign is over. For me it wont drop further, the bottom is made. And if it drops, i keep now bagholding.

First of all: I don't trade, but do speculate now and then.

From experience, maximum pain needs to be reached before going up again. We are not there yet IMHO, this could take weeks / months before a true bottom is reached. Especially when BTC starts to see some upward momentum at the same time.

Agreed. We haven't reached the "desperation" stage. You can identify that when people start making angry posts accusing Monero of being a scam, saying they lost all their money, etc. I think the trend will be negative until the release of RingCT in January. Even then, I don't think we'll see serious growth until the end of 2017. There's still a lot that needs to be done for Monero to be considered user friendly. In addition to user friendliness concerns, the coin emission is still quite high, about 7500 coins a day.

I remember I used to be very worried about the coin emission in 2014 and 2015 each time I was buying myself. And my worry back then was legitimate, it indeed increased the probability of the death of Monero. Now that issue is solved/solving day by day.
I think the emission is now fine and it is declining day by day. Given the current volumes even on the slowest days I think the emission is simply a drop in the ocean + a lot of smaller miners get only dust for their coins and therefore probably will not bother even to transfer those to the exchanges. That's the beauty of decentrilized coin like Monero: miners need so high price for the coin that is pays them off to move them (assuming no single entity owns a significiant part of network hash).

That being said, I have bids in the markets at prices I am willing to increase my stack just in case there are more sellers.
A lot of short positions are opened at the bottomish prices.
Currently there are only around 108 000 XMR in the Lending markets (used to be close to 300 000) which is a clear indication of increased buying pressure.
If the price goes down due to massive short positions, it is something one do not need to worry that much IMO. A shorter today is a buyer tomorrow. If Risto or someone whale like him comes here to proclaim: I dumped my Moneros, then I would be more worried.
Warz selling either is not something that I am worried despite the fact that he as a Norwegian plays with millions of dollars. Warz has always bought back at some point AFAIK.
My stand is bagholding from the beginning of 2016 because this year is the first year we can see some real growth, and I think the growth might accelerate because the emission is getting so tight and inflation is now at relatively reasonable level (bear in mind, only 5.5 million coins until the minimum block reward hits and the inflation is even lower than the inflation of euro).