[XMR] Monero Speculation

[adolf512]

I guess my real mistake was not going all in earlier(when the price was below 0.0106), i simply kept to much BTC(0.4) reserved for bids that never got filled and realised my mistake too late, trading with limited funds can be very frustrating. It is frustrating that my profit on XMR(if i would be stupid enough to sell now) isn't as large as it should be but i guess it is a price you have to pay to learn(the hard way).

In any case it is now obvious that people are willing to buy at higher and higher price now, the buy support after a drop is returning earlier each time.

[TrueCryptonaire]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

[CoinCidental]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

[freedomgo]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

I guess the current price is already a gift and if this is not manipulated, how do you call it?

Whales are already making good money due  to the panic selling and I just hope we will be back on top before the end of the year. I receive an advise from someone that I should but XMR now so I did.

[CoinCidental]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

I guess the current price is already a gift and if this is not manipulated, how do you call it?

Whales are already making good money due  to the panic selling and I just hope we will be back on top before the end of the year. I receive an advise from someone that I should but XMR now so I did.

i wouldnt call it manipulation
i think XMR is a solid coin to hodl at this price
and make 200-300% in the future
oasis market panic is over and done with now and people are still buying it
because it will be used in the future ,maybe  for privacy, ransomeware and other dark markets .......

[TrueCryptonaire]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

Me too, just added 2 more bids and to little higher prices (currently 5 bids waiting for the people dump in case bitcoin rise might cause some kind of FOMO among the Monero community).
I see the future of XMR pretty bright. Dark markets in general are interested in Monero, but also I see it has a great potential to be a tax haven... But that probably requires some mainstream marketing which can be achieved by pumping the price up, up and up.

[Stringer Bell]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

[Stringer Bell]

"New financial technologies such as bitcoin may become increasingly attractive to investors as a protection against central bank low- and negative-interest-rate policies that threaten capitalism, according to billionaire bond manager Bill Gross.

Policies by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are destroying historical business models that foster savings, investment and economic growth, Gross, who runs the $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said in an October investment outlook released Tuesday.

He said that as investors lose faith in the system, they will increasingly seek havens."

Full Article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/janus-s-gross-says-bitcoin-blockchain-may-counter-central-banks

[boestin]

Any advice on buying Monero at this point, will it do another 10X?

[Shiroslullaby]

Yes, as sad as it is, Monero will definitely be used for future ransomware payments.
I expect the same for any coin that gets decent traction and has strong privacy features.
There have been ransomware operations earning upwards of a million dollars a month in payments.
That is a lot of new customers buying coins if they shift to Monero.
As much as I hate it, we will probably profit because of the innocent people being forced to buy Monero to unlock their files.  

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

That's actually genius.
I always wondered what people who had a lot of money in escrow did to secure their funds against a loss.

[adolf512]

Any advice on buying Monero at this point, will it do another 10X?

yes it sure can https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_-kB3pasZs especially if we get som good news, but the price short term can change in any direction. I guess a lot of people want to get rid of their xmr now and the buy-support is not that strong above 0.011 , hence the low price(i make almost no profit if i sell now).

I will probably not long xmr again, i prefer being able to sell if the price is very likely to go down(after a peak).

[CoinCidental]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.

Therefore, there is no need to worry for the vendors... Monero economy has currently all the components for all the market participants to play around.

its only a matter of time before XMR reaches another ATH
a lot of people are happily taking this opportunity to add to their stack (me included )

Me too, just added 2 more bids and to little higher prices (currently 5 bids waiting for the people dump in case bitcoin rise might cause some kind of FOMO among the Monero community).
I see the future of XMR pretty bright. Dark markets in general are interested in Monero, but also I see it has a great potential to be a tax haven... But that probably requires some mainstream marketing which can be achieved by pumping the price up, up and up.

I wouldnt worry about mainstream marketing ....these things have a way of sorting themselves out
i would say the XMR community is only second to eth and when we get a  GUI and some quick wallets
more people will start keping their money safe from prying eyes .......
new Dark Markets will keep popping up like mushrooms  
monero would make a very suitable coin for gambling games in areas where gambling is not permitted by law
there is also the possibility of price rises from stolen and hacked bitcoins being turned into XMR etc
XMr is one of the (few) coins that actually has a bright future ......

[Anon136]

Yes, as sad as it is, Monero will definitely be used for future ransomware payments.
I expect the same for any coin that gets decent traction and has strong privacy features.
There have been ransomware operations earning upwards of a million dollars a month in payments.
That is a lot of new customers buying coins if they shift to Monero.
As much as I hate it, we will probably profit because of the innocent people being forced to buy Monero to unlock their files.  

Is ransomware really that bad? I mean its better to have to pay some dude a few thousand dollars than to have your major competitor silently monitoring your network activity for years, or silently scooping up confidential customer information, or nickel and dimeing for years office space style. The extortionist is discovering your vulnerabilities for you so that you can patch them (if that be through social engineering it makes no difference). Firms hire pen testers and pay them up front. How different is this really except you pay the pen tester on the back end?

I actually sold bitcoin to an institution that had its database encrypted with ransom ware. The hacker only wanted like 600 bucks. For a big institution. It was really a pretty reasonable fee for uncovering a vulnerability.

I know, I know. It's basically the business model of governments. Provide service without asking if anyone even wants the service then unilaterally decide the price afterwards. Im not justifying it. Its not a good thing. It's still wrong. I just wanted to point out that they are actually providing a useful service.

[N-rG]

btw (offtopic but important):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56fv7h/the_monero_stackexchange_needs_you_only_10_days/

[bobabouey2]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

[CoinCidental]

btw (offtopic but important):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56fv7h/the_monero_stackexchange_needs_you_only_10_days/

joined!

[Stringer Bell]

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

Nice find! Interesting stuff. I remember seeing some spreadsheets a while back, and surprisingly he wasn't actually keeping much profit at all. Spending all the BTC coming in most months on all sorts of stuff, it was an expensive operation. The auction money was customer deposits mostly I recall?

I knew hedging would carry a risk, but I (wrongly) assumed he found some way to make it work. Sound like it was actually costing him a bunch, either from vendors purposely exploiting it or it just wasn't viable at what he was charging for it.

Anyhow, offtopic, sorry! Back to Monero speculation.

I'll throw my little bit in - I have witnessed some real XMR adoption on the markets, not a great deal, 5% overall on Alpha would be stretching it. But, for example - from a few well know vendors with good reputations, some are accepting XMR for all products (smaller stalls) and there are a handful of larger sellers who have elected to sell a few of their smaller items (<$150) for XMR. I believe they are very keen for XMR to prove truly "private", many are waiting I suspect to see that it continues to function(stability/safely) for a bit longer, that the price doesn't crash to 0, that it can't be 'hacked' - this isn't Bitcoin, so trust has to be built, will happen pretty quickly now that people know BTC. Generally after learning the ropes with Monero, my feeling is that most folks will be keen to offer it as an option and to get their own stash together ASAP. It's just going to take some time, and for the necessity of such a currency in this area to become apparent. Will likely happen a lot quicker than it did for BTC, it paved the way for things to move much faster (eg. 1bn market cap for ETH).

[TrueCryptonaire]

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

Of course there  are costs (interests + transactional costs).
Risk is that Poloniex Goxes the hedger.

[N-rG]

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

I'll throw my little bit in - I have witnessed some real XMR adoption on the markets, not a great deal, 5% overall on Alpha would be stretching it. But, for example - from a few well know vendors with good reputations, some are accepting XMR for all products (smaller stalls) and there are a handful of larger sellers who have elected to sell a few of their smaller items (<$150) for XMR. I believe they are very keen for XMR to prove truly "private", many are waiting I suspect to see that it continues to function(stability/safely) for a bit longer, that the price doesn't crash to 0, that it can't be 'hacked' - this isn't Bitcoin, so trust has to be built, will happen pretty quickly now that people know BTC. Generally after learning the ropes with Monero, my feeling is that most folks will be keen to offer it as an option and to get their own stash together ASAP. It's just going to take some time, and for the necessity of such a currency in this area to become apparent. Will likely happen a lot quicker than it did for BTC, it paved the way for things to move much faster (eg. 1bn market cap for ETH).

Thanks for ascertain and share

E: poor fluffy, just read some new fud about him...summarizing "fluffy is not interested in dev. anything further cause he is already filling his pockets enough with the fees of https://mymonero.com/#/ "

What a pitty. Someone did a good job and now earn some money with that. Total illegal.

Ok serious. I dont unterstand why people get so jealous. Everyone can contribute to XMR. Buy coins, make a good video/website/fansite/marketing/etc, share it, enjoy rising prices.

[dEBRUYNE]

'More mooo coding goodness' - Feedback required from community on MoneroMooo's new Forum Funding System proposal

https://forum.getmonero.org/7/open-tasks/86962/more-mooo-coding-goodness

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56nlan/more_mooo_coding_goodness_feedback_required_from/