[XMR] Monero Speculation

[CoinCidental]

Ask yourself one very important question:
When the GUI is out, which reason do all those DNM users have to use BTC over XMR?

volatility

You never heard about hedging?

Not sure what you mean, if I hold 50XMR in my DNM wallet today I can buy 20 xtc pills and next week maybe only 10? That's not very convenient when on the other hand bitcoin is relatively stable

I also created an account in alphabay and dream marketplace, it seems like those DNM sites take BTC though mixers by default so they are hard to trace.. not sure why XMR is needed. But it does make me feel more at ease I guess.


Also, I think XMR will eventually recover but we are in for a bear market that will probably last a few months. I admire that you are the only person here who is still keeping up the bullish sentiment.

He isnt the only one ,i am still adding to my XMR stack but its pointless to argue with the tards like NRG and all his alt accounts ........let them keep droping cheap XMR and il keep picking it up .........

[1715592662]

1715592662

[1715592662]

1715592662

[N-rG]

If AB is still there after 6 month you truly deserve the 100 XMR

I'll happily wager this if you're keen? No need for escrow person.. I'd feel bad taking your money actually fuck it

So you suggest a bet and than you chicken out? 

[CTTE]

If AB is still there after 6 month you truly deserve the 100 XMR

I'll happily wager this if you're keen? No need for escrow person.. I'd feel bad taking your money actually fuck it

So you suggest a bet and than you chicken out? 

The problem with that bet is he would actually be wagering that the authorities don't use blockchain analysis on the BTC to find AB and and shut it down.

[Febo]

I spend some time today to learn more about dark markets and found this:  https://psychonautwiki.org/wiki/comparison_of_darknet_markets

So there are 3 kinds of markets.
Centralized like Dream Market
Multi signature markets like Alpha Bay
Decentralized markets like Open Bazar

Will centralized markets actually want to have untraceable currencies?


Also from first sight i think only Decentralized markets have future. So nor Alpha Bay or Dream Market. But i really have no ideas how they work really.

Alpha and Dream are probably the biggest right now, by a long shot. They operate in the same way.

I don't think people sell drugs on Open Bazar..  It's discouraged I think.

I mentioned Open Bazar out of decentralized markets just because it is the  only name that is familiar to me.

I am sure there are many important attributes that make one dark market successful. But i think that this part is really important and it will show on long term.
Decentralized markets > Multi signature markets > Centralized markets

[Anon136]

The adaptive blocksize combined with the tail emission is what will make the Monero business model still relevant should the real cost of "keeping the ledger" fall by several orders of magnitude due to changes in hardware, networking etc. In this scenario Bitcoin could very well end up being Dinrer's Club while Monero could be VISA. Instead of simply dismissing fiat banking and credit / debit / payment cards it is important to learn their lessons of history. Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it.

Hm well lets do a little math. For the sake of simplicity lets say monero transactions are the same size as bitcoin transactions. And that bitcoins 1mb blocks are what are necissary to keep sifficient decentralization at this time. Lets scale it at moores law over 20 years. In 20 years that is 13 doublings. Lets say half the people on earth use monero for day to day transactions. Lets say the average person makes about 5 transactions per day.

We would need (3.5billion*5/86400) ~200,000 transactions per second. Bitcoin does about 7tx/s. 13 doublings would put it at ~60,000tx/s. I mean it's in the same realm. Throw 2 more doublings in there and you would be > 200,000. IF moors law holds. Sooo maybe. Maybe it scales well enough in 20 years without some scaling breakthrough.

[Hueristic]

Shit, 0.01015000 24 hour low.

My buy was just below that.

[iCEBREAKER]

Polo had a bug... I just tried to set bids for NRG (he likes to get my money and buy something nice to him) but it ended up market buying despite I set the price below the spot...  

Always reload the page before you buy/sell on Polo.  /pro tip

[ArticMine]

...

Hm well lets do a little math. For the sake of simplicity lets say monero transactions are the same size as bitcoin transactions. And that bitcoins 1mb blocks are what are necissary to keep sifficient decentralization at this time. Lets scale it at moores law over 20 years. In 20 years that is 13 doublings. Lets say half the people on earth use monero for day to day transactions. Lets say the average person makes about 5 transactions per day.

We would need (3.5billion*5/86400) ~200,000 transactions per second. Bitcoin does about 7tx/s. 13 doublings would put it at ~60,000tx/s. I mean it's in the same realm. Throw 2 more doublings in there and you would be > 200,000. IF moors law holds. Sooo maybe. Maybe it scales well enough in 20 years without some scaling breakthrough.

Yes, but it gets better. In the above scenario the blockchain would continue to grow at a linear rate, but there is no requirement for Moore's law to stop. So one would have an exponentially falling cost with a linea growth in blockchain size. This is what happened with credit / debit / payment cards. There was fall in the cost of "keeping the ledger" by many orders of magnitude between the tabulating machines of the 1940's and the mainframe computers of the 1970's. The cost of keeping the ledger kept falling even after market saturation.

The beauty of the Monero approach to the blocksize / scaling issue is that the market actually ends up setting the size of the blocks and the price of the blocks in response to the actual real cost of keeping the ledger. This is because the cost in terms of Monero of each block is actually set by the emission. So the market will end up setting the size of the blocks in terms of MB (or GB, TB etc) and cost of the blocks in terms of the purchasing power of a fixed amount, the tail emission, of XMR.

Edit: The above is accomplished without a pre determined blocksize limit (Bitcoin and Bitcoin type crypto currencies) or a fixed cost per MB (Ethereum and similar fixed fee models). In both of the Bitcoin or Ethereum cases changing the blocksize or the fees requires a hard fork.

[Anon136]

...

Hm well lets do a little math. For the sake of simplicity lets say monero transactions are the same size as bitcoin transactions. And that bitcoins 1mb blocks are what are necissary to keep sifficient decentralization at this time. Lets scale it at moores law over 20 years. In 20 years that is 13 doublings. Lets say half the people on earth use monero for day to day transactions. Lets say the average person makes about 5 transactions per day.

We would need (3.5billion*5/86400) ~200,000 transactions per second. Bitcoin does about 7tx/s. 13 doublings would put it at ~60,000tx/s. I mean it's in the same realm. Throw 2 more doublings in there and you would be > 200,000. IF moors law holds. Sooo maybe. Maybe it scales well enough in 20 years without some scaling breakthrough.

Yes, but it gets better. In the above scenario the blockchain would continue to grow at a linear rate, but there is no requirement for Moore's law to stop. So one would have an exponentially falling cost with a linea growth in blockchain size. This is what happened with credit / debit / payment cards. There was fall in the cost of "keeping the ledger" by many orders of magnitude between the tabulating machines of the 1940's and the mainframe computers of the 1970's. The cost of keeping the ledger kept falling even after market saturation.

The beauty of the Monero approach to the blocksize / scaling issue is that the market actually ends up setting the size of the blocks and the price of the blocks in response to the actual real cost of keeping the ledger. This is because the cost in terms of Monero of each block is actually set by the emission. So the market will end up setting the size of the blocks in terms of MB (or GB, TB etc) and cost of the blocks in terms of the purchasing power of a fixed amount, the tail emission, of XMR.

Edit: The above is accomplished without a pre determined blocksize limit (Bitcoin and Bitcoin type crypto currencies) or a fixed cost per MB (Ethereum and similar fixed fee models). In both of the Bitcoin or Ethereum cases changing the blocksize or the fees requires a hard fork.

Wow. Damn. You are completely right. Growth in transaction demand would be a mostly liner function indeed and even if the increase in transaction capacity does not follow moore's law it would be some form of compounding function. Perhaps it would be significantly more modest than moore's law but any compounding function will over take any liner function given enough time. It is only a question of when. And I think we can reasonably postulate that it will be a value less than a particular value, i.e. probably not 100 years, because we do have historical data that we can examine for relevant trends and project forward while allowing generous margin for error.

[Stringer Bell]

If AB is still there after 6 month you truly deserve the 100 XMR

I'll happily wager this if you're keen? No need for escrow person.. I'd feel bad taking your money actually fuck it

So you suggest a bet and than you chicken out? 

I'm good for the bet. I'm just not sure you'll pay me if you lose My word is good, I will pay you 100XMR if AB isn't online due to an exit scam, LE raid, etc, 6 months from now. Say April 22nd 2017.. And you owe me 100XMR if it is still operating on April 22nd 2017. Just for fun.. Hopefully the price will go parabolic and we both forget the bet ;P

[bitebits]

I'm good for the bet. I'm just not sure you'll pay me if you lose My word is good, I will pay you 100XMR[...]

This seems to be one of those bets you can only lose.

[moneyLooser]

We might be actually higher than 10 000 usd in 20 years from now. Exponential growth tends to be the biggest towards the end of the curve. Therefore it is prudent to buy all the time (even small amounts - let the small mean 10000, 100, 1, 0.1 or even 0.001 XMR - any amount is out of the pockets of the trolls).
Consistency is something that is needed + patience. And whenever NRG trolls it is time to increase the amounts you buy.

It would be cool if some entity with enough capital would buy every Monero under 1000 usd. That would make NRG to be quiet as he can sell his coins to the entity and buy nice jetski to his troll cave next to a pond somewhere in Germany.

You are just a mindsick person, read this in the PoloBox:

Dude: you are TrueCryptonaire?
crpt: no I am not, but he is funny I like his posts, a positive and rich guy not a negative one
Dude: so you are hes not rich he place 0.01 btc orders lol and talks steadily wrong things
crpt: no dude he has money I am pretty sure, seems to be involved in real estate a lot
Dude: it is you and you are not rich
crpt: when you meet rich people more often you learn to recognize them
Dude: you say the same strange things like him

Defenitely a mental disorder

[elrippo]

By the way, did anybody see americanpegasus for a while 

[DaveyJones]

By the way, did anybody see americanpegasus for a while 

He is very active on reddit... as he always has been. He is more a redditor than a forum habitant :p

[PID1]

Good to sell above 0.0103

Margin short above 0.0103

Liquidate at 0.0186

Take profit 0.008888-0.009500

Gain goal: +7.5% (after costs)

Revision:
Take profit <0.009400
Gain goal: +8.2% (after costs)

Revision:
Take profit <0.009300
Gain goal: +9.2% (after costs)

Revision:
Short hold...
Gain goal: +10.2% (after costs)

[moneyLooser]

Good to sell above 0.0103

Margin short above 0.0103

Liquidate at 0.0186

Take profit 0.008888-0.009500

Gain goal: +7.5% (after costs)

Revision:
Take profit <0.009400
Gain goal: +8.2% (after costs)

Revision:
Take profit <0.009300
Gain goal: +9.2% (after costs)

Revision:
Short hold...
Gain goal: +10.2% (after costs)

Hehe don't say that the Fanboys will hate you.

493 crpt
 2016-10-22 02:12:49   we will probably break through 115 on xmr today

 

[ArticMine]

...
Isn't Bitcoin Unlimited allow the blockzsize to be set by the market without the need for a tail emission?

No.

Bitcoin Unlimited relies on the cost of orphan blocks to create a fee market for the blocksize. This is based on the work of Peter R. Rizun https://www.bitcoinunlimited.info/resources/feemarket.pdf. The key conclusion in Peter R. Rizun's work is that the cost of increasing the blocksize is proportional to the block reward. R. The trouble with this is that if R = 0 or becomes very small then there is no cost to increasing the blocksize, and no incentive for miners to secure the coin. It is exactly the same problem as using the Cryptonote / Monero adaptive blocksize limit without a tail emission, as is for example the case in Bytecoin. The penalty is also proportional to R so without a tail emission there is no cost to increasing the blocksize and no incentive for the miners to secure the coin. The Orphan Block market is of course also present in Monero in addition to the adaptive blocksize limit.

The advantage of the Monero approach, in addition to the tail emission, is that there is a fee market to control the blocksize well before the blockchain is taken to the orphan block limit. The Bitcoin inflation rate will fall below that of Monero withing 12 years, so tail emission is not a far in the future issue. Bytecoin may also provide an early indication of this failure ironically because the Bytecoin ninja / pre-mine accelerated the Bytecoin emission curve by two years. This is why I prefer to think of Bytecoin as the "canary in the coal mine" as opposed to the "scam in the ninja / pre-mine".

Edit: The question of how will the POW be secured after the block reward runs out was never answered in the original Bitcoin design, and this omission lies at the heart of the "blocksize" issue in Bitcoin. This omission is also present in most POW coins with Monero and Dogecoin as significant exceptions.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Polo had a bug... I just tried to set bids for NRG (he likes to get my money and buy something nice to him) but it ended up market buying despite I set the price below the spot...  

Always reload the page before you buy/sell on Polo.  /pro tip

Looks like it works. Now I was able to set the bids at the prices I am willing to take from the dumpers.
I wonder how come Poloniex is such a clumsy site to trade. It takes almost eternity to set orders to the markets.

[N-rG]

Maybe this coin needs an own thread "Monero Fighting/Hating".

It's really to much Fanboy/Realists bitch fighting present here.

This Thread is for speculation.

I think this week will be again painful for XMR. Again a weekend with dropping prices. Next week zcash is coming. BTC is also very strong.

I'm pretty unsure about the XMR GUI.

1)
To release a beta GUI could be good. I think so because new's could/will probably compare zcash with monero and it will be said "XMR has no GUI" even if both coins have the same type of java GUI available. Most COIN sites are usually not very exact because they are invested by themselves. But it is still fact that both coins have the same type of GUI and zcash advertisments will have (positive) side effects for XMR too.

2)
BUT: A Beta GUI could also used against XMR like "they only a a buggy beta. In the past problem x and y occured so better stay away!"

For me the 2 is the worse. Moreover a beta would bring XMR not to a new ATH like many here are hoping. A mix of reasons will be responsible for a new ATH (if it will ever happen)

So I think the best for XMR is to release a perfect and good looking final GUI.

This could be used after the zcash launch when the hype is over (the first 1-4 Weeks).
A final GUI is also just more elegant to read in the new headliner, instead of "XMR releases their beta GUI".
That could imply that this project is not stable or in an early state. Moreover: Since the price dropped so hard, a news about the beta will be always refered with "the coin who lost over 50% value in 1 month"...in 4 weeks it's hopefully stable.
And since i'm here I recognized that these communites have a lot of irrational people I assume zcash has the same type of community.
They will just repeat over and over again "XMR has only a buggy beta GUI" -doesn't matter if its buggy or not. And doesn't matter that even they don't have one official.

But anyway, the price is and will be under pressure.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The price drops because bitcoin rises.
Some people tend to FOMO in the beginning of the rise of bitcoin. Later when it is time to diversify and alts are beaten in terms of bitcoin, the large bitcoiners tend to diversify their assets to other currencies, that's the point where Monero will rise (LTC rose from cents to 40 usd in 2013).