[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

IIRC It should be what the market can bear,

IOW whatever you set your sell price for.

Thank you, but I am not sure I understand. Do you mean a whole DEX will be built on purpose with its own price discovery mechanism? Would it use an order book or an AMM?

Atomic swap is the mechanism, it can be used (setup a transaction) by anyone.

You question is for software that will use the mechanism to facilitate a dex.

[bitebits]

I think today ($235) the below major event is far from priced in yet. In <14 months tail emission kicks in, the last variable block reward is mined (currently ~1.09 XMR per two minute block and dropping). At that future date in just eight years time a whopping 18.4 million XMR are mined. A then constant tail emission of 0.6 XMR per block means ~0.85% inflation in the first year (157,680 XMR), and that percentage is declining each following year. The only way still being able to get a decent number of monero is increasing your bid price, there a very few new moneros coming into existence from miners.

I will check in again in a year's time. But in the meanwhile, grab some while they are still cheap.

Monero block rewards will never drop to zero. Block rewards will gradually drop until tail emission commences at the end of May 2022. At this point, rewards will be fixed at 0.6 XMR per block.

https://www.getmonero.org/resources/moneropedia/tail-emission.html

[Febo]

In less then 3 weeks time Monero will be 7 years old. Hopefully that will put some light on the project. In June there is planed Monero Konferenco 2022 in Berlin https://monerokon.com/cfp/  It was cancelled last year and postponed to this year. Right now I am wondering how big chance is that it happens. Covid is very alive right now in Europe, but 3 months can change a lot.  


EDIT: https://twitter.com/MoneroKon/status/1360312111105146881   I see it was already decided to be an online conference.

[heraldd]

Atomic swap is the mechanism, it can be used (setup a transaction) by anyone.

You question is for software that will use the mechanism to facilitate a dex so you are asking in the wrong place.

I understand this thread is about speculating on the price of Monero, so I will try to explain why I think a strong price discovery mechanism is highly related. (I imagine the OP of this reddit post https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/kp0hhg/monero_price_discovery_atomic_swaps_exchange/ tried to describe the same problem but I am not sure he was understood)

#1 Relying on other sources for price determination is bad

- If the atomic swaps system (that was funded for development) relies on other exchanges for price determination, the price will not increase even if the volume is high. If 5% of the global volume occurs on Binance, 5% on HBTC, 5% on OKEx and 85% on the atomic swaps system, the price will still be an average of the 15% volume occurring on Binance, HBTC and OKEx (thus all the volume occurring on the atomic swaps system won't have any effect on the price)

- The system wouldn't be fully decentralized as it wouldn't work without the price feeds of centralized exchanges

- Almost all of the recent exploits in Defi occurred because of price oracles manipulations


#2 Building a price discovery mechanism is hard

- Maintaining an order book on a blockchain is not effective because every bids and asks must be published on the chain (on the contrary, it is very easy for a centralized exchange because they just use a database...). On non smart-contract chains like BTC and XMR, this is almost impossible to implement. Even if it was, it would be very expensive (every bid and ask would incur a fee) and slow (you would need to wait for the next block to have your bid / ask validated). Layer2 would solve these problems but Lightning is for payments (not contracts) and no sight of Layer2 on XMR as far as I know...

- If the atomic swaps systems somehow implements a price discovery mechanism, but a clunky one (like on Bisq), buyers and sellers will just end up setting a "price + X%" (based on the average price of other exchanges, thus coming back to problem #1)


#3 AMM on smart contract chains is the way to go at the moment

AMM (Automated Market Maker) is a simple idea that fixed the order book on chain for the moment. It is not perfect (liquidity providers might occur impermanent loss at the profit of arbitragers) but it's the best decentralized solution until layer2 contracts are implemented. Uniswap (and clones) managed to capture huge volumes thanks to this simple idea


#4 A better system will be invented

Right now, all Defi occurs on Ethereum because it's so much easier to develop on. AMM is a temporary fix that will probably be replaced by true order books when a good layer2 solution is implemented. But all volume might shift to yet another chain if Ethereum doesn't scale quickly enough. I just want to insist that building a decentralized exchange with a true price discovery mechanism is not easy: some projects might do it better than others and maybe on chains that don't even exist yet


#5 The case for renXMR

The RenVM is a network of nodes acting as an inter-blockchain bridge (like WBTC but permissionless and decentralized). A tokenized version of XMR on other chains (renXMR on Ethereum for example) would allow us to use the best DEXes out there, in a fully permissionless and unstoppable way. I am not trying to shill Ren here (or Monero on Ren channels) but I am long term hodler of both and I just think that these two should really have a baby... I don't understand why an atomic swaps solution was funded while we might have a better solution with a REN bridge. I believe the price of XMR remained abnormally low because of the trading happening on centralized exchanges (which is defying the purpose of Monero), but atomic swaps don't look like the best way to me (especially after seeing Komodo fail). Note that REN is not even fully decentralized yet (see roadmap) and it's not cheap, but it allows me to use my BTC on the best defi protocols (exchange on Uniswap, earning yield on Yearn, use BTC as collateral on Aave, change for DAI if I want stability, etc...). I would love to do the same with my XMR and use Bisq as a fiat ramp only.


Please don't treat this post as a newbie obsession, I read this forum for a long time (and especially this thread) but I just signed up recently. In a way, I feel lucky I wasn't there at the very beginning or I would have probably gone through KYC like many of you had to. Hopefully, this "virgin" status will save me the day even CBDC's are traded on permissionless/decentralized exchanges! Also XMR is still a bargain right now (especially in BTC) so I don't feel late at all

[Febo]

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily translations by quarter.  Q1 of 2021 update.

[cAPSLOCK]

Yeah, Monero's transaction growth is most certainly very bullish.  It's entirely organic and real use oriented. I find it very encouraging.

There are many other chains with good transaction volume, but some of them are just crazy.  ETH is going wild.  And I think it will be the chain that shows us first what happens when nodes have to be run in big data centers and end up centralizing completely.  With a history of rules being changed many times ETH will certainly be the defacto example of a chain of loosely federated consensus nodes, and known active leadership.  I have no real idea what will happen to the various ETH killers/clones.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion... but they are probably going to be used transactionally as bitcoin's base layer fees stay high, and before bitcoins layer 2 is still being built out and evolving.  Several other older alt projects will be used that way as well.  Litecoin, Doge, our old friend Dash etc.

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Most folks will use bitcoin this way.  And they will not care that they are trading privacy for ease and cost.

In time all the computational use cases being built around Ethereum will eventually begin to move to layers on Bitcoin as the tech expands.  People will realize that trying to be the base monetary layer for dapps and running dapps too is having your cake and eating it.

But Bitcoin's privacy issues are really starting to show up as we have known they would.  I love listening to Matt ODell twist himself into gordian knots trying to advocate for best practices for BTC privacy. They have not yet realized that all their coinjoins and use of things like Whirlpool is just going to taint all their holdings.  We really need to see taproot and it's multisig advantages get built out.

SO... I think we are starting to see Monero's next renaissance kick off.  Folks are going to realize that it is currently best in class... and on some levels the only contender.

One concern I have... and I am not done processing it is the recent rise of BCASH like Monero evangelism.  We are seeing a LOT of anti-bitcoin, "Monero is what the whitepaper really meant" type of narrative forming.  And I am not gonna lie.  I hate it.  Not because I disagree with it entirely, but because I think it is ignorant and one dimensional thinking.  And I know there are folks here that might be on the side of the folks pushing that narrative currently.  But I have always seen Monero as a dark companion to bitcoin.  For example which chain would you rather want to see governments use?

On the other hand, which chain do you think governments would be more likely to use.

Interesting times gents!

300 before mid May.

[elrippos friend]

Yeah, Monero's transaction growth is most certainly very bullish.  It's entirely organic and real use oriented. I find it very encouraging.

There are many other chains with good transaction volume, but some of them are just crazy.  ETH is going wild.  And I think it will be the chain that shows us first what happens when nodes have to be run in big data centers and end up centralizing completely.  With a history of rules being changed many times ETH will certainly be the defacto example of a chain of loosely federated consensus nodes, and known active leadership.  I have no real idea what will happen to the various ETH killers/clones.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion... but they are probably going to be used transactionally as bitcoin's base layer fees stay high, and before bitcoins layer 2 is still being built out and evolving.  Several other older alt projects will be used that way as well.  Litecoin, Doge, our old friend Dash etc.

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Most folks will use bitcoin this way.  And they will not care that they are trading privacy for ease and cost.

In time all the computational use cases being built around Ethereum will eventually begin to move to layers on Bitcoin as the tech expands.  People will realize that trying to be the base monetary layer for dapps and running dapps too is having your cake and eating it.

But Bitcoin's privacy issues are really starting to show up as we have known they would.  I love listening to Matt ODell twist himself into gordian knots trying to advocate for best practices for BTC privacy. They have not yet realized that all their coinjoins and use of things like Whirlpool is just going to taint all their holdings.  We really need to see taproot and it's multisig advantages get built out.

SO... I think we are starting to see Monero's next renaissance kick off.  Folks are going to realize that it is currently best in class... and on some levels the only contender.

One concern I have... and I am not done processing it is the recent rise of BCASH like Monero evangelism.  We are seeing a LOT of anti-bitcoin, "Monero is what the whitepaper really meant" type of narrative forming.  And I am not gonna lie.  I hate it.  Not because I disagree with it entirely, but because I think it is ignorant and one dimensional thinking.  And I know there are folks here that might be on the side of the folks pushing that narrative currently.  But I have always seen Monero as a dark companion to bitcoin.  For example which chain would you rather want to see governments use?

On the other hand, which chain do you think governments would be more likely to use.

Interesting times gents!

300 before mid May.

Just beeing kinky...
If we would take the transaction count as a price estimation for the future from April that would be ~€50.000,- x 7,66% = ~€3.800 

[Febo]

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Yes this is exactly how it will happen. Paypall and co will just write, erase and move numbers in a database. And then will be a financial collapse. Much bigger then it was in 2008 and all those people holding "Bitcoin" there will end empty handed.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion...

Transaction wise yes. Litecoin x4 growth that happened few month ago was because of an onchain game. BCash had a x10 number of transactions growth in last couple of montsh because of some onchain "forum"  I forgot the link, but definitely have nothing to do with medium of exchange.  Monero transactions are pure medium of exchange. No mixers try to hide tracks and no games and stuff.

[cAPSLOCK]

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Yes this is exactly how it will happen. Paypall and co will just write, erase and move numbers in a database. And then will be a financial collapse. Much bigger then it was in 2008 and all those people holding "Bitcoin" there will end empty handed.

Yup.  This is why I would not hold more than a trivial amount of value at any of these places in, frankly, any form.  In fact the only reason I would even buy bitcoin at one of these is to "support" them though at this point I do not think they need any support.  The system is up and running.

I have nothing against these orgs, and also believe that TRUSTED layers are a valid and useful evolution of technology.  They offer a set of tradeoffs, as long as we are aware of them, makes what they offer useful to some.

But some folks will likely get burned.  I think we are further along in your dystopic prediction than many would believe.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion...

Transaction wise yes. Litecoin x4 growth that happened few month ago was because of an onchain game. BCash had a x10 number of transactions growth in last couple of montsh because of some onchain "forum"  I forgot the link, but definitely have nothing to do with medium of exchange.  Monero transactions are pure medium of exchange. No mixers try to hide tracks and no games and stuff.

Yes.  And this detail is lost on most.  Though we are not the only chain with organic growth... our old arch-nemesis DASH comes to mind.

But in time (short time) ways to use BTC transactionally will become more and more appealing and eliminate the other chain's artificial utility.

But for BTC to replace Monero's utility a LOT of work will need to be done, if it is even possible (I think that it is dubious).

I think my 300 by mid may prediction is pretty bearish really.

[Diamond Rolex]

-

[macson]

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily translations by quarter.  Q1 of 2021 update.

snip

to moon 🚀

It sucks that usefulness doesn't make the price go up but maybe it will eventually. BCH and XMR are the two best cryptos to bring economic freedom to the world. Bitcoin is unusable for most people due to the high fees and we are seeing centralized solutions take it over.

$5k BCH and $2k XMR isn't far away.

you like BCH & XMR but not BTC, I like BTC & XMR but not BCH "lol"

don't complain fella, i'm also waiting for XMR to make a new ATH, very sure this year it will happen and ^(maybe) we will see XMR at $2k.

[cAPSLOCK]

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily translations by quarter.  Q1 of 2021 update.

snip

to moon

It sucks that usefulness doesn't make the price go up but maybe it will eventually. BCH and XMR are the two best cryptos to bring economic freedom to the world. Bitcoin is unusable for most people due to the high fees and we are seeing centralized solutions take it over.

$5k BCH and $2k XMR isn't far away.

you like BCH & XMR but not BTC, I like BTC & XMR but not BCH "lol"

don't complain fella, i'm also waiting for XMR to make a new ATH, very sure this year it will happen and ^(maybe) we will see XMR at $2k.

The BCH narrative flag is being carried by the front line Monero evangelists on Twitter and elsewhere now.  And I know there are many here in this thread that also believe the Blockstream = evil, Peer to Peer CASH, whitepaper, NgU is evil etc. thing.

I also think Monero is a better fulfilment of what most of us (possibly SN himself) wanted Bitcoin to be, but I feel like the anti-BTC narratives are more harmful than anything else...

I could be wrong, I guess.

But I have ALWAYS seen BTC and XMR as two sides of a coin.  I am not a fluffy disciple, but I pretty much agree with his (at least public) stances on BTC vs XMR, and the community has drifted towards a Bitcoin hostile vibe that reminds me very much of the Roger Ver type of stance.  I don't like it.  But that's just me.

[bitebits]

Posted by u/SamsungGalaxyPlayer
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mm3iw9/mobilecoin_is_a_censored_monero_wannabe_premined/

TL;DR: "If you want a premined, centralized coin that censors transactions, with security assumptions reliant on Intel, and which makes a bunch of VCs rich, then use MobileCoin."

[sportscliche]

But I have ALWAYS seen BTC and XMR as two sides of a coin.  I am not a fluffy disciple, but I pretty much agree with his (at least public) stances on BTC vs XMR, and the community has drifted towards a Bitcoin hostile vibe that reminds me very much of the Roger Ver type of stance.  I don't like it.  But that's just me.

I agree. BTC bashing aside, having an identifiable, prominent, vocal person as the figurehead and/or creator of a crypto project is simply not a good look. No matter how noble their intentions, they are certain to rub at least some people the wrong way. Worse and more important, they give the impression that the project lacks sufficient decentralization. The following individuals and their blockchains are indelibly linked: Ethereum = Buterin, BCH = Ver, Cardano = Hoskinson, Zcash = Zooko, EOS = Larimer, Tron = Sun, XRP= Garlinghouse, BSV = CSW, Binance = CZ and of course the list goes on and on.

[Hueristic]

Peter Todd on Bitcoin's and Monero's Security Risks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSfb96P4Xys

[cAPSLOCK]

Peter Todd on Bitcoin's and Monero's Security Risks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSfb96P4Xys

Interesting show.  The host (Doug?  Does he post here?  Dunno) is sort of the super Monero fanboy confirmation bias guy... and Todd is the ultimate adversarial thinker.  So it's like putting baking soda with vinegar.

In the end the both did well and made it interesting.

[Globb0]

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily translations by quarter.  Q1 of 2021 update.

snip

to moon

It sucks that usefulness doesn't make the price go up but maybe it will eventually. BCH and XMR are the two best cryptos to bring economic freedom to the world. Bitcoin is unusable for most people due to the high fees and we are seeing centralized solutions take it over.

$5k BCH and $2k XMR isn't far away.

you like BCH & XMR but not BTC, I like BTC & XMR but not BCH "lol"

don't complain fella, i'm also waiting for XMR to make a new ATH, very sure this year it will happen and ^(maybe) we will see XMR at $2k.

The BCH narrative flag is being carried by the front line Monero evangelists on Twitter and elsewhere now.  And I know there are many here in this thread that also believe the Blockstream = evil, Peer to Peer CASH, whitepaper, NgU is evil etc. thing.

I also think Monero is a better fulfilment of what most of us (possibly SN himself) wanted Bitcoin to be, but I feel like the anti-BTC narratives are more harmful than anything else...

I could be wrong, I guess.

But I have ALWAYS seen BTC and XMR as two sides of a coin.  I am not a fluffy disciple, but I pretty much agree with his (at least public) stances on BTC vs XMR, and the community has drifted towards a Bitcoin hostile vibe that reminds me very much of the Roger Ver type of stance.  I don't like it.  But that's just me.

We all have bitcoin brothers. I think its some other forces with that vibe.  (plus they all know about Monero too )

[tokeweed]

Posted by u/SamsungGalaxyPlayer
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mm3iw9/mobilecoin_is_a_censored_monero_wannabe_premined/

TL;DR: "If you want a premined, centralized coin that censors transactions, with security assumptions reliant on Intel, and which makes a bunch of VCs rich, then use MobileCoin."

The sad part is Signal, being part of the open source movement and the whole fighting for our online privacy thing, is using it for their own app.  And the sadder part is people outside the space will think it’s the coolest thing to happen for Signal users.  I mean wow...  Talk about a sell out.

[cAPSLOCK]

This is an interesting write up.  Also interesting it got tagged as an "unreliable source".  (edit- Looks like a bot did this because there was a cointelegraph link in it)

Someone is spending tens of millions of dollars to suppress Monero

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mkj20r/someone_is_spending_tens_of_millions_of_dollars/

[Febo]

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/mmrchk/im_happy_to_announce_haveno_the_monero_based_dex/


Apparently is far from being use able, but finally someone started it.  If BisQ did not want to take Monero as native coin it was only way that someone fork BisQ.   Same will happen with Signal. Them not using Monero will just make someone fork Signal and add Monero to it.

Someone is spending tens of millions of dollars to suppress Monero

That is definitely true. Sad is we will never know who since there can be so many. Fierce-uk is now mod on Zcash subeddit.  Probably they are just so ignorant to add him there and nothing else, but who knows.  What is missed in that reddit post is about a month ago Monero github was spammed and I believe right now no new developers can add code to Monero. Only existing can. Attacks are serious.

Bottom line is Monero was, is and will be attacked all the time. There will be attacks on the network, it will be attacked legally. It will be attacked on every possible way. It dont really mater who is the attacker. What it matters is that what dont kills you it makes you stronger.

Peter Todd on Bitcoin's and Monero's Security Risks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSfb96P4Xys

What most bothers me is how can people be so ignorant of RandomX almost 2 years after its existence. Andreas Antonopoulos had no ideas about it, same with Peter Todd.  As was seen on twitter we might see both Peter Todd and Howard Chu together in one of the next episode.