[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TPTB_need_war]

It seems like they are going with Equihash:

https://www.internetsociety.org/sites/default/files/blogs-media/equihash-asymmetric-proof-of-work-based-generalized-birthday-problem.pdf

Afair when I reviewed that paper when Zcash first mentioned it, that can only theoretically limit the parallelization speed up to a factor of around less than 10. But afaik that doesn't characterize entirely about the electricity consumption advantage for an ASIC which is the more important factor.

Afaik, an asymmetric algorithm like that is more likely to be broken (sped up or electrically optimized) by some number theoretic or algorithmic insight. I realize the Birthday problem is a very studied problem, but I trust that much less than a straightforward symmetric memory hard algorithm. I should spend some more time on that white paper in the future when I restudy my design for a CPU hash, so I can try to find more flaws in either approach. I'll wait (because I have other priorities), which will give us time to be sure that is the algorithm Zcash has chosen before investing more effort.

I fear ingrained investment more than botnets. Botnets don't have to fight you and sell you out to protect their vestment. They are just there to get some coins cheaper which drives the difficulty higher than it would be otherwise. If the botnets ever do dominate (which is unlikely) then they are competing with each other. We all can go buy a botnet too, which will drive the prices of botnets higher. In short, botnets are a decentralized resource, unlike cheap electricity which is centralized.

I think the key for Monero is remaining small enough. So the big win will be the stampede in if it comes (smaller market cap should far exceed Bitcoin's percentage gain), and that is the time I would be selling and waiting to see what is next for Monero in terms of where we are at that time in terms of state-of-the-art in sustaining decentralization.

Folks I don't share the 10 - 20 year plan viewpoint. These are not heirlooms because of the trend to centralization and the power law distribution of wealth. We go out and make our mark on society with something and it has a natural peak based on its fitness.

Disclaimer: I have no skin in this game. I realized I make my money being a creator and marketer, not as a speculator. I learned my lesson already.

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

[rdnkjdi]

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

Hmmmm.  The amount of skill it takes to capture a botnet is above the amount of skill to setup a GPU miner (and less than that to create an ASIC).  Sure you can buy a botnet for more than the farmer paid for it - just like you can buy an ASIC for more than the maker paid to have it created.  But there's still a market pretty much captured by specialized skill.  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Obviously skill based free market isn't immoral but it seems that it might not be optimal for securing a network where you basically want as many users as possible making it impossible for the security to become centralized.

[Lebubar]

What would happen with Monero if Poloniex went down?

What happened with Bitcoin when MTGox went down?

Price crashed and years later still hasn't recovered?

Like now? or worth?

Don't forget that someone here say that in 2030 price of 1 XMR will be 100,000$ .

[bitwolf]

Is there a reason why ethereum and monero prices are soo linked right now-  Eth rises, monero rises,  eth goes down, xmr also.

[fiscorcle]

Is there a reason why ethereum and monero prices are soo linked right now-  Eth rises, monero rises,  eth goes down, xmr also.

The link just happened recently. In the past, there was no such link.

[rdnkjdi]

Is there a reason why ethereum and monero prices are soo linked right now-  Eth rises, monero rises,  eth goes down, xmr also.

If you watched - Monero's rise from the $0.50 - $0.60 to $1.50 was a delayed reaction to Eth's rise.  Basically people got rich diversifying their bitcoin in Eth and then diversified their Eth with Monero (or that's what the market timing seemed to indicate).  After the huge pump to $13 XMR jumped.  It jumped again bigtime on a small dip to $10 or $11 if I remember correctly.

There was a really interesting reddit post about a guy who is anticipating some things from bitcoin wrapped around closed door meetings with IBM and Blockstream ... wish I could find it.  Anyway - might be some insider trading going on in bitcoin.  Honestly I'm afraid to touch it.  Halvening -> Miners going offline -> Network clogging -> Price dropping -> Miners going offline could turn into a nasty cycle.

I'm also convinced there is a lot of money sitting in bitcoin waiting to get out and a lot of speculators that will "sell on news" no matter what the price does.  Ethereum and Monero bring value to the table that's not just speculation and first mover advantage.  Eth is def way more inflated than Monero at this point (but less inflated than BTC IMO).  

A lot of money has to flow into bitcoin to double it.  Risk isn't worth the reward for me.

[volyova]

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Correct. Both suck value from the network...forever, until it is a dried husk.

[TPTB_need_war]

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

Hmmmm.  The amount of skill it takes to capture a botnet is above the amount of skill to setup a GPU miner (and less than that to create an ASIC).  Sure you can buy a botnet for more than the farmer paid for it - just like you can buy an ASIC for more than the maker paid to have it created.  But there's still a market pretty much captured by specialized skill.  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Obviously skill based free market isn't immoral but it seems that it might not be optimal for securing a network where you basically want as many users as possible making it impossible for the security to become centralized.

Raise the demand, thus the economies-of-scale, thus the amount extracted by the fungible skill becomes quite a low, insignificant percentage. It is way free markets work.

Electricity is not a free market. ASICs are not a free market. Because they require very large fixed capital investments (which also makes them easy to regulate and to capture for free via political corruption). Acquiring the skills to farm botnets requires only a personal investment of time. This the price of that skill will be driven down to the opportunity cost of the person, not to the fixed capital cost of constructing a hydroelectric dam or creating a silicon fab.

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Correct. Both suck value from the network...forever, until it is a dried husk.

Incorrect. Myopic. You apparently lack understanding of how markets function.

[rdnkjdi]

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

Hmmmm.  The amount of skill it takes to capture a botnet is above the amount of skill to setup a GPU miner (and less than that to create an ASIC).  Sure you can buy a botnet for more than the farmer paid for it - just like you can buy an ASIC for more than the maker paid to have it created.  But there's still a market pretty much captured by specialized skill.  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Obviously skill based free market isn't immoral but it seems that it might not be optimal for securing a network where you basically want as many users as possible making it impossible for the security to become centralized.

Raise the demand, thus the economies-of-scale, thus the amount extracted by the fungible skill becomes quite a low, insignificant percentage. It is way free markets work.

Electricity is not a free market. ASICs are not a free market. Because they require very large fixed capital investments (which also makes them easy to regulate). Acquiring the skills to farm botnets requires only a personal investment of time. This the price of that skill will be driven down to the opportunity cost of the person, not to the fixed capital cost of constructing a hydroelectric dam or creating a silicon fab.

Ehhhh disagree.  Electricity is closer to a free market than botnets.  Plus you are pretty much requiring people willing to break the law in order to compete in securing your network (punishing people who play by the rules) ... seems like a bad idea for keeping the right crowd advertising / using your coin.

[TPTB_need_war]

Ehhhh disagree.  Electricity is closer to a free market than botnets.

I won't argue with an idiot who doesn't even refute what I wrote. Read again and try to comprehend what I wrote.

The entire point is about economies-of-scale of capital gaining an advantage over lower levels capital.

The opportunity cost of a botnet farmer is less than perhaps a man-year. Construct a hydroelectric dam with 4 cent electricity with a nerd's 1 year opportunity cost.  

One possible retort is stream micro-hydropower, but locations are limited by head drop, you'd need to lease not own to make it profitable, and this is simply not as widely accessible as learning to be a botnet farmer.

[rdnkjdi]

Ehhhh disagree.  Electricity is closer to a free market than botnets.

I won't argue with an idiot who doesn't even refute what I wrote. Read again and try to comprehend what I wrote.

"an idiot" ... You continue to try to trigger people with insults who disagree with you.  It's just as easy to come across as factual without personal insults ("I won't argue with someone who doesn't refute what I wrote").

For instance maybe I'm not an idiot.  Even if you are in the right and I'm in the wrong maybe my six year old distracted me.  Or I stubbed my toe and picked up on the wrong paragraph without realizing it.  Or just mis-read.  

Which is pretty much why I've decided you'll go nowhere with your ambitions.  You may be smart but your arrogance burns pretty much every bridge you've had to anyone.  I've watched it happen over and over again for the last three years.  

You are emotionally immature & love to start insult matches and then get off on accusing the other guy of impugning your character.  Speaking with you requires the same difference in emotional maturity that a 30 year old has to show to a 6 year old in order to get along.

And yes - I refuted that botnets are free markets (they are different than growing tomatoes or free range hens.).  The skill entry is much closer to that of ASICs.  Slightly different (it requires breaking the law and less skill) but still closer to that of ASICs than GPU mining.

Basically deciding if botnets, ASICs and GPU mining are free markets is like discussing if building houses, growing gardens and mining gold are free markets.  Each requires different resources (all of which you can buy with enough money).

ASICs require heavy investment (that you can buy a small piece of with money).  Botnets require breaking the law and a certain amount of skill (that you can buy from a farmer ... but requires you to break the law too).  GPU mining requires a moderate amount of skill and a moderate amount of investment.

I'm willing to risk some money and time to GPU mine.  I'm not going to risk going to jail for renting some botnets on the blackmarket (I imagine dealing drugs would be more profitable without much more downside on jailtime with a first time offender).  Plus I'm smarter than most drug dealers I've met and not as smart as most botnet farmers.  Which is what you would find with the majority of people interested in securing your botnet coin.

[volyova]

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

Hmmmm.  The amount of skill it takes to capture a botnet is above the amount of skill to setup a GPU miner (and less than that to create an ASIC).  Sure you can buy a botnet for more than the farmer paid for it - just like you can buy an ASIC for more than the maker paid to have it created.  But there's still a market pretty much captured by specialized skill.  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Obviously skill based free market isn't immoral but it seems that it might not be optimal for securing a network where you basically want as many users as possible making it impossible for the security to become centralized.

Raise the demand, thus the economies-of-scale, thus the amount extracted by the fungible skill becomes quite a low, insignificant percentage. It is way free markets work.

Electricity is not a free market. ASICs are not a free market. Because they require very large fixed capital investments (which also makes them easy to regulate and to capture for free via political corruption). Acquiring the skills to farm botnets requires only a personal investment of time. This the price of that skill will be driven down to the opportunity cost of the person, not to the fixed capital cost of constructing a hydroelectric dam or creating a silicon fab.

In case anyone missed my point. I am saying botnets are a free market thus we can all go rent one. This will raise the price which raise their availability. Which will raise the hashrate difficulty and this security. Botnets are great!

  I see a lot in common with ASIC & botnets.

Correct. Both suck value from the network...forever, until it is a dried husk.

Incorrect. Myopic. You apparently lack understanding of how markets function.

Actually, I am a GPU miner, and I've seen the real effects of ASIC on coin networks, many times. I was speaking from personal experience.

[TPTB_need_war]

Well if you are not hiding from the government and just want privacy, then we could just use a centralized mixer.

So perhaps what I mean is that first crypto-currency has to become popular and then we have to work out which forms of privacy are plausible, scalable, realistic, and which the government will allow us to have.

Charles Hoskinson makes a very strong point at 10:30min in this video:

Is this what you mean?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7933xvCFRQ

It seems to me you want to be designing privacy to enable compliance, not fight the government. Then on chain solutions are superior to centralized mixers (for several reasons).

There was a point made recently in the Monero Technical thread that there is no view key for the payer, only for the payee (recipient).

[volyova]

Botnets are malware. No serious investor would put money in that.

[TPTB_need_war]

Actually, I am a GPU miner, and I've seen the real effects of ASIC on coin networks, many times. I was speaking from personal experience.

I didn't disagree with you about ASICs.

Botnets are malware. No serious investor would put money in that.

Investors in the tokens are not the miners. Investors need to make sure the mining is secure, not that it is moral. You can't legislate people to stop getting viruses on their computers. If investors were driven by the desire to never invest in anything that could be leveraged by anything they think is immoral then there is a laundry list of investments they shouldn't be making, yet they still do.

[nioc]

It seems that Bittrex will soon be implementing KYC policies.  Because of this I will no longer be using them and have withdrawn whatever I had there.  

The one source of btc that is earmarked for Monero is better suited to be used with Shapeshift which I have recently been doing and will continue to do.  That is the btc I have been waiting for and today the answer I got was "soon"    I have no doubt it will get here and what the delay is losing me in btc I am more than gaining in Monero.

[rdnkjdi]

Saying botnets are a healthy free market when the price of using one is getting tossed in jail in most countries of the world if caught is one of the stupidest things I've heard from an intelligent person.  

[volyova]

Actually, I am a GPU miner, and I've seen the real effects of ASIC on coin networks, many times. I was speaking from personal experience.

I didn't disagree with you about ASICs.

Botnets are malware. No serious investor would put money in that.

Investors in the tokens are not the miners. Investors need to make sure the mining is secure, not that it is moral. You can't legislate people to stop getting viruses on their computers.

Ok, the mere association with malware would make an investor choose another coin.

[TPTB_need_war]

Saying botnets are a healthy free market when the price of using one is getting tossed in jail in most countries of the world if caught is one of the stupidest things I've heard from an intelligent person.  

Go defend your fragile ego in your 5 year old throwing sand box. I don't have time for you.

I didn't write the word healthy. I am speaking about the way markets work. It has nothing to do with my morals.

Ok, the mere association with malware would make an investor choose another coin.

Yeah like investors didn't invest in Ethereum and Dash and oil companies that pollute, etc... 

[volyova]

Saying botnets are a healthy free market when the price of using one is getting tossed in jail in most countries of the world if caught is one of the stupidest things I've heard from an intelligent person.  

Go defend your fragile ego in your 5 year old throwing sand box. I don't have time for you.

I didn't write the word healthy. I am speaking about the way markets work. It has nothing to do with my morals.

Ok, the mere association with malware would make an investor choose another coin.

Yeah like Ethereum and Dash and oil companies that pollute, etc...

Things are how they are, however unfortunately..