[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

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[aminorex]

https://www.scribd.com/document/322004737/Bitfury-Shared-Send-Untangling-in-Bitcoin-20160821

[aminorex]

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult...

I think the correct bottom is the day the DNM news was announced to the general public.  This move is motivated by that informaiton, and its retrace is a retrace of that specific impulse.  It is the only gap that needed to be filled.  Retracement to .618 is 0.0075, to 0.500 is 0.0069 to 0.382 is 0.0064.  That is how my bids are placed, anyhow.  So far, only 0075 has filled.

The previous move was on inside information, and there will be no retrace of that move, because the number of participants was vanishingly small compared to the number participating in the public information move.

[rpietila]

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult...

I think the correct bottom is the day the DNM news was announced to the general public.  This move is motivated by that informaiton, and its retrace is a retrace of that specific impulse.  It is the only gap that needed to be filled.  Retracement to .618 is 0.0075, to 0.500 is 0.0069 to 0.382 is 0.0064.  That is how my bids are placed, anyhow.  So far, only 0075 has filled.

The previous move was on inside information, and there will be no retrace of that move, because the number of participants was vanishingly small compared to the number participating in the public information move.

What you say is clearly a possibility. However, technical analysis ignores fundamentals and news, insider information, and everything except price, and that alone. If someone is out of XMR, it might make sense to enter slowly even at the current price. But XMR's nature has been to visit the key price points (in this case 420k) repeatedly, so I am interested to see what happens

[Hueristic]

I bought my first batch of XMR two years ago, around .005 BTC. I really wasn't sure if it would ever get to that price again, as the crypto community seemed to continually pass it up for inferior coins, like Dash. Now, here we are.

XMR "feels" like BTC circa 2012-13. People are taking notice. The advantages of Monero over any other currency are now being recognized by the wider community. Soon, they'll be utilized. Usage, speculation, the ecosystem, and the price are likely to grow ever faster.

I'm with you on this similar timeframe and circumstances.

If nothing else we have seen whats possible with a bit of potential adoption and raising the profile. Pump or not. Here's to the future.

Shame I diversified 1 BTC out a few months back, still I wouldn't be saying that if it went to 0 and that's Ristos point really isn't it.

I bought my first batch of XMR two years ago, around .005 BTC. I really wasn't sure if it would ever get to that price again, as the crypto community seemed to continually pass it up for inferior coins, like Dash. Now, here we are.

XMR "feels" like BTC circa 2012-13. People are taking notice. The advantages of Monero over any other currency are now being recognized by the wider community. Soon, they'll be utilized. Usage, speculation, the ecosystem, and the price are likely to grow ever faster.

Glad to see you guys still holding and finally seeing some gains.

Bad time to get into Monero?? 

This is the toughest question to answer that only the largest holders know the solution to. Where is their Take profit point? Who knows? They surely aren't going to tell anyone. Lol

So anyone that is going to answer this for you is either guessing or has an agenda. So don't believe a thing you read with the market doing this type shit. So there is some free advice that you can take to the bank.

[LiskKing]

Official sold LISK for XMR. Hello Team!


will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

I will be still learning from all of you thank you!!!!!!!!!!!


How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

[ArticMine]

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

A retest of 0.0042 to 0.0043 actually does make a lot of sense to me as a correction, given this was a very strong resistance level that has now become a support level.

[aminorex]

However, technical analysis ignores fundamentals and news, insider information, and everything except price, and that alone.

I think that is not the best mode of technical analysis.  The good form of technical analysis is the use of price movements as observable signals about mass psychology.  Prices are determined by mass psychology, a wealth-weighted voting system.  Rules of thumb inferred from many observations of common market patterns are really rules about mass investment psychology, summary statistics over conditional histories.

Yes, you can usefully apply technical analysis on the basis of price and volume alone.  I often do, simply because I have limited information . (I consider that a very small edge, and only ever take very small positions on that basis.)  But if you allow the known facts to inform your technical interpretations, your predictive power will increase dramatically, in the cases where those facts are available (and relevant), and you can increase your sizing accordingly, so such cases are much more useful and important.

This is particularly relevant in crypto markets, I think:  The fundamental factors can much more easily dominate over the mass psychology of a relatively small audience, and event risks tend to be large relative to market size.

There is little enough harm, I suppose, in waiting for 0042.  If it never drops below 0075, well, you can always buy higher, and you're protected against the possibility of experiencing a period of regret before the next impulsive rise (which can be reasonably expected to occur on 1 Sep).  However, I urge my close friends to establish some position immediately, regardless of price, and then to grow it over time.  Opportunistically, if may be.  With discipline, if not.

 

[rpietila]

will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

There is about the same number of XMR as there is BTC, both in circulation, and in total.

So this answers all your questions:

Holding 5000 XMR is like holding 5000 BTC. If it does not feel good enough, then it's too little.

There are about as many people holding 10k or 5k, as there are people holding 10000 or 5000 BTC. I can also tell the number, after practicing quite a lot of this in my youth: about 100 people have 10k or more, 150-200 people have 5k or more.

[LiskKing]

next 8 hour will tell for me if we are up or down. My suspect is up when CHINA and JAPAN awake

will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

There is about the same number of XMR as there is BTC, both in circulation, and in total.

So this answers all your questions:

Holding 5000 XMR is like holding 5000 BTC. If it does not feel good enough, then it's too little.

There are about as many people holding 10k or 5k, as there are people holding 10000 or 5000 BTC. I can also tell the number, after practicing quite a lot of this in my youth: about 100 people have 10k or more, 150-200 people have 5k or more.

Thank you sir for the answer.

[rpietila]

Thank you sir for the answer.

How can you reply in 14 seconds??  

[Hueristic]

The best technical knowledge I have seen in the years of watching the market is experience, you get a feel for what the market is going to do. there a few guys that post that can see whats coming but I'll not point them out as those that spent the time in this thread to learn the honest posters and the manipulators deserve to profit from it. Just because you jumped on a bandwagon don't expect anyone to tell you the truth so you can profit. And that is free advice anyone just buying should heed. Your best bet is to go back and look at the charts and on the market moves go into this thread and read the corresponding posts.

[sandiman]

Official sold LISK for XMR. Hello Team!


will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

I will be still learning from all of you thank you!!!!!!!!!!!


How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

Selling Lisk near bottom, buying XMR near ath, that is a hell of a risky trade

[aminorex]

don't expect anyone to tell you the truth so you can profit

Very true.  Indeed most information is disinformation or misinformation, albeit generally without malicious intent.  But it is better to be exposed to the ideas, and to test them, than to entirely miss out on ideas which might not otherwise have occured to you.  I particularly appreciate (although I do not enjoy) when I get called out on some error or key missing point in something I posted.  Otherwise, why bother to post?  The downside is the danger of being lulled into groupthink.  I used to think myself immune, but in fact it can be subtle and very pernicious.  The ideal is to be able to recognize the ebbs and flows of groupthink, while standing apart from it.  There is also some value in anything that keeps you engaged with an important topic, so that your energy is focused.  (For instance, right now, my focus should be on monte carlo inference over a structured bayesian regression problem, and not XMR.)

[CTTE]

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

A retest of 0.0042 to 0.0043 actually does make a lot of sense to me as a correction, given this was a very strong resistance level that has now become a support level.

I could see that as well but, I think the twist here is how much Monero will need to be bought by new users for actual usage to be pulled into the DNM ecosystem in the next week or month?  That effectively takes them out of the exchanges and reduces supply.

[elrippo]

Since XMR gained nearly 300% in value in a few days and seeing 100btc buywalls at 0,0080 on polo, i honestly can not believe in "natural" growth.
The fallback will probably be as fast and deep as the upleg.

Monero gained 300% in value in a few months. (0.0021-0.0085)
In few days it gained 100% (0.0042-0.0085)
and in few weeks gained 200% (0.0028-0.0085)

Yeah, well on Aug 14'th it was around  0,003 and yesterday it was around 0,009, so thats a few days or weeks  

14t august was 0.0032 . and that was a minimum same as was  a maximum 0.009. It is always hard to catch maximums and minimums, my posts used more normal since you could get coins easily at that price at that time.  If we took this 2 extremes in calculation we get. 180% raise in last 10 days.  If you were a super lucky trader. You need a time machine to actually make it happen.

I am not so picky, so that's why i posted what i posted. Well i do feel a little lucky. Bought in below 0,002 and sold above 0,0085. That's all fine for me, so like i said, i am not so picky, so don't be picky at me.

[SchemerDreamer]

will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

There is about the same number of XMR as there is BTC, both in circulation, and in total.

So this answers all your questions:

Holding 5000 XMR is like holding 5000 BTC. If it does not feel good enough, then it's too little.

There are about as many people holding 10k or 5k, as there are people holding 10000 or 5000 BTC. I can also tell the number, after practicing quite a lot of this in my youth: about 100 people have 10k or more, 150-200 people have 5k or more.

Just a little while ago you could buy 5000 XMR for under 10 BTC.. And it stayed that way for a long time.. You really think there are only ~200 people out there with higher balances than 5k?

[elrippo]

So, this artificial pump is over in a few days and XMR will have time to consolidate until December back to 0.0018 - 0.0024
I hope you guys are selling your coins and getting them back in December, because this was a Marketmakerpump starting with somewhat 1000BTC and now ending slowly 

How is it artificial?

Care to provide proof of your claims?

Well it sure looked special, turning half of the existing XMR in 24 hours. Reminds me of the Mintpal pump.

That said, I believe much good was achieved regardless of anything. It is possible that this was the first real upleg. Or even if we fall back, I believe 420k will now be a strong support. Even going to 180-240k, nothing new there. Not many thought it possible to revisit 100k, yet even that happened!


The game is about how many you own and can keep in your possession. If you own 1000 BTC, you are well positioned, but it is expensive to gain that position if you start now. If you owned 1000 BTC five years ago, it is equally good as 1000 BTC now, only if you have managed to keep it from theft, hack, taxman, your own mistakes in storage, and most importantly from your urge to sell.

Many reading this have 1000 XMR, or even much more. In five years, or less, it might have equal value as 1000 BTC now. Statistically, an extremely small fraction of people manage to do it, though.

I believe it's prudent to budget in advance that half of the remaining coins are lost, every time the price rises x10. So the ones who wish to have the coveted 1000 XMR when the price hits $5k, should buy 10k now.

Hmm... it seems that XMR is more mature now than BTC when I heard of it. It has 50 times higher market cap as well...

Not much to add here. Why i believe this is an artificial pump by a marketmaker, is well explained by Risto already.
Since XMR gained nearly 300% in value in a few days and seeing 100btc buywalls at 0,0080 on polo, i honestly can not believe in "natural" growth.
The fallback will probably be as fast and deep as the upleg.

You seem to be interpreting Risto's post very strangely -- verging on fantasy even.

Risto is drawing the parallel to BTC in 2011 ie a pullback is still possible before another exponential increase.  He advises the complete opposite of what you propose ie buy and hold rather than trade your holding away.

And as Febo states, even your figures are wrong.

Everbody reads what he likes to read, so nothing new to me. Interpret the writing as you like, regardless if it's Ristos or mine.
My Figures are not wrong, weeks are filled with days, but i do not want to argue about peanuts.

If it smells like a Marketmakerpump, it tends to be a Marketmakerpump 

Your figures are wrong. If you don't want to argue/defend them, correct them. A few days != a few weeks. Also, when using "gained", you should reference the correct number -- that is, 200%, not 300%. 0.003 -> 0.009 is a 200% gain.

Of course there's a lot of irrational exuberance. There always is on large price rises. Trying to be a "voice of reason" while utilizing falsehoods is counterproductive, however.

I am in no need to argue about this. You are 100% right, i made a mistake. (I do not want to waste my time in arguing about this)
Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

[kaeste]

In my opinion, it doesn't really make sense to make a correction that early, or even make a bigger lower move at all. We almost reached the ATH several times, and we did today quite well at stabilizating the price for a little bit.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/cOvLDYMa-Monero-triangle-breakout-expectation/

It's not my chart, but i totally agree with this one. Before september 1 there's no reason to try retest lower fib levels, because there is better reward for going long, than going short in this moment.

Long story short - if you go long now, you will have like 100% chance to get the reward, but if you short, you can't be that sure.



This is my point of view, and what I believe will happen.

Everyone should gather the facts on they own, and make a decision by themselves.

Good luck guys.

[LiskKing]

I think LSK is no VALUE right NOW...but in future it will...right now....people need ANON currency more than anything....ANON > OVER EVERYTHING ..we have found digital cryptonite ..

LSK will be great but I think XMR just starting to rise... this year may look fun. I know as investor perspective I will hold money in XMR due to the new economy backing it. As a vendor it is better to put daily profit into XMR -more likely to double up and earn interest....and keep part into BTC still maybe.

Now question is? -How much daily profit vendors make ? and what % they put into XMR?