[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

No mocking has ensued. Now, does that mean you're more or less likely to be correct?

Perhaps it means the audience is sufficiently mature to refrain from mockery until time disproves me.  Otherwise, ever the contrarian,  I would tilt towards "less".

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[cAPSLOCK]

Mockery schmokery.  Most of the posters in here that would do the mockery don't have the balls to make predictions like you just did even in a speculation thread. Console yourself with your edge it should be easy.

[Hueristic]

My outlook for XBTUSD is up intraday for a while, then down through the weekend, to a new low for the week, probably below 640, where my order ladder lies.  The implication for XMRBTC is favorable over the weekend, as XMR tends to USD stability during BTC fluctuations.  I'm anticipating a daily high in XMRBTC on Sunday or Monday, and may sell into it with some fraction of my very small trading position -- too small to make a significant price impact, so don't bother trying: Almost all of my XMR was lost in a boating accident in 2014, and is unavailable to the market barring some heroic recovery.

Feel free to mock my predictions after they are proven false.  Any sufficiently precise prediction is invariably false, so I won't feel bad about the occasional public whipping; as long as my long-term average privately demonstrates an edge which is scaled correctly to my trading risk, I will find some way to console myself.

This is inline with my prediction almost 2 months ago which is still holding true.

I don't remeber anyone mocking your predictions, I take them serious. Maybe it's trolls I have on ignore that your referring to? If so fuck them.

The ETH/DAO debacle has skewed all predictions within that timeframe though. Basically I believe it has done nothing but lengthen the time frame if for no other reason than having the funds in the dao locked and the uncertainty of what would happen when they became available.

[birr]

[mockery]
I won't feel bad about the occasional public whipping
C'mon, you like it.  You know you like it.
I will find some way to console myself
I'm not sure I even want to go there...
[/mockery]

[thelibertycap]

I am pretty bullish at this point. I can't see it much lower than 0.0024. Unless bitcoin does rally big time or other significant event happens I expect a further consolidation and actually a rally soon.
I haven't followed the dev team so I am not up to date with upcoming changes and not only what is happening but more importantly when it is going to happen. Last time I remember CT and multisig could happen late autumn but being a developer myself I always assumed early next year is still quite good, but could come with a cost of a some monero dumping (or pumping because markets are not always rational).

I should publish such market analysis more often, who knows, maybe someone could find a pattern and make some good monero trades, like the urban legend is saying, trade the exact opposite of what aminorex is suggesting.

[jmpFCE2]

it will fail and fail harder, could not even organize 1 decent pump after years, go figure

[MrGood]

it will fail and fail harder, could not even organize 1 decent pump after years, go figure

How come you couldn't organize a pump? Maybe you're doing it wrong?

[jehst]

it will fail and fail harder, could not even organize 1 decent pump after years, go figure

Are you blind? Look at the chart

[aminorex]

Of course the most meaningful BTC prediction in this vanishing volatility environment is dreary sameness.  I haven't had a good timing win on BTC since the happy happy joy joy of Brexit past.

Feeling pretty good about oil here, I may say.  Gold too during the coming week.

I could make a technical argument that SPX shorts won't capitulate for another 5-6 months.  The drop then would be awesome, around February.  The next U.S. president would then be the Hoover of the 21st century -- and Yellen, the Rudolf Havenstein.

[nioc]

My outlook for XBTUSD is up intraday for a while, then down through the weekend, to a new low for the week, probably below 640, where my order ladder lies.  The implication for XMRBTC is favorable over the weekend, as XMR tends to USD stability during BTC fluctuations.  I'm anticipating a daily high in XMRBTC on Sunday or Monday, and may sell into it with some fraction of my very small trading position -- too small to make a significant price impact, so don't bother trying: Almost all of my XMR was lost in a boating accident in 2014, and is unavailable to the market barring some heroic recovery.

Feel free to mock my predictions after they are proven false.  Any sufficiently precise prediction is invariably false, so I won't feel bad about the occasional public whipping; as long as my long-term average privately demonstrates an edge which is scaled correctly to my trading risk, I will find some way to console myself.

I have continued nibbling this week.  Looking forward to the time when our lost Monero is worth enough so that we can hire Robert Ballard to recover it.

[jehst]

Does bitcoin have a 3x or 5x move left in it? I've given up completely on a 10-20x parabola.

[ArticMine]

Does bitcoin have a 3x or 5x move left in it? I've given up completely on a 10-20x parabola.

Without a 3x or 5x increase in the 1 MB blocksize limit I do not see the fundamentals to support that; nevertheless It is quite possible we see a manifestation of the "greater fool theory" driving such a move.

[jehst]

Does bitcoin have a 3x or 5x move left in it? I've given up completely on a 10-20x parabola.

Without a 3x or 5x increase in the 1 MB blocksize limit I do not see the fundamentals to support that; nevertheless It is quite possible we see a manifestation of the "greater fool theory" driving such a move.

I think that whenever the price goes up 10x in the span of 8 weeks or so, there's a greater fool theory at work. The real world transactional use never suddenly jumps 10x in a month.

[aminorex]

That last point is certainly true, but I am not sure the inference is sound.  For example, if the price is lagging the value eggregiously, then the correction may be eggregious as well.  Of course, overshoot is typical, and then, yes, the greater fool is rearing its belled tassels.

Anyhow, I think it will be the width of the money pipe that drives the next serious BTC bubble, from one or two new ETFs - have thought so for years, now - continue to do so.  Throw that fiat on the fire, baby.

Gold being so hot right now, while USDJPY is tanking, has got to be good for all crypto.  Notice that SPX is locally correlated with Gold (and soon oil?).  What with the overheated job market, that screams inflation.  With CB balance sheets over the moon, and negative rates everywhere, ugh.  The apocalypse is good for crypto.  When those excess reserves get knocked loose -- c'est l'deluge.

[fuerojuzgo]

Hi there,

So I've been following the evolution of Monero for some time now, only project in crypto that actually gets my attention.

There are lots of speculations in this thread, but I have registered to encourage some speculation about actual use of Monero as currency.

Is Monero ready to be used commercially? and by ready I don't mean technically possible to use it, but if people who hold Monero would use them to buy services or products.

For example, I own a business totally internet based, let's say from today I accept Monero to pay for services, and I accept to pay my workers or other businesses/providers in Monero too.

Would anyone care? If not, why not and when could this change? Does it depend?

I guess crypto-currencies are created with the idea of being useful, I would like to know what are your ideas about Monero being really used.

 

[MalMen]

some people (like me) buy things with monero using xmr.to to keep annonymaty, but the majoraty are or bag holders just hopping to have 100000x return or expeculators to make a quick buck...
You have some people ofering to sell things for moneros, I think there is a painting somewhere, and there are some mining machine that was sold to fluffypony I think...
Some people want to put theyr moneros to use, so it depends what you want to sell and how do you advertise it

[smoothie]

Hi there,

So I've been following the evolution of Monero for some time now, only project in crypto that actually gets my attention.

There are lots of speculations in this thread, but I have registered to encourage some speculation about actual use of Monero as currency.

Is Monero ready to be used commercially? and by ready I don't mean technically possible to use it, but if people who hold Monero would use them to buy services or products.

For example, I own a business totally internet based, let's say from today I accept Monero to pay for services, and I accept to pay my workers or other businesses/providers in Monero too.

Would anyone care? If not, why not and when could this change? Does it depend?

I guess crypto-currencies are created with the idea of being useful, I would like to know what are your ideas about Monero being really used.

 

Yes accepting monero for goods or services will add to its perceived utility. It is a self-feeding cycle.

[aminorex]

Is Monero ready to be used commercially?

This certainly occurs, but in general, today, XMR sees first-order use as a speculation (store of value), second-order use as a transmission channel (medium of exchange), and only third-order use in denominating commerce (unit of account). Due to being the most fungible of all currencies, many proponents deem, and I among them, that it is better suited to many commercial uses than any other candidate currency - specifically, those use-cases in which deviations from perfect fungibility impose cost or risk.

Would anyone care?

I would, and would be quite pleased.  Certainly I would be more inclined to do business with you on that basis than otherwise.

All unbound currencies (informational commodities) have a value bootstrapping challenge.  Fiat currencies derive value from taxation, but free-market currencies gain utility from being valued, and gain value from their utility.  Inevitably, this is a cycle: when the technology is apt, a virtuous one; otherwise, a vicious one.

[GingerAle]

Hi there,

So I've been following the evolution of Monero for some time now, only project in crypto that actually gets my attention.

There are lots of speculations in this thread, but I have registered to encourage some speculation about actual use of Monero as currency.

Is Monero ready to be used commercially? and by ready I don't mean technically possible to use it, but if people who hold Monero would use them to buy services or products.

Yes, Monero is ready to be used commercially. It functions as a currency. If you were selling something right now I could buy it with monero. The question is whether I want or need to buy the thing that you're selling, and if Monero provides any advantages over some other payment option.

For example, I own a business totally internet based, let's say from today I accept Monero to pay for services, and I accept to pay my workers or other businesses/providers in Monero too.

Would anyone care?

A lot of privacy oriented people would care. If you're selling something that Bob wants but Bob doesn't want other people to know that Bob bought the thing that you're selling, Monero is the *only* provably cryptographically private means to do that (well, ok, you could become a master of bitcoin private operating procedures, but that, at best, will get you some percentage of Monero's privacy).

If not, why not

A lot of people outside of Moneroworld or cryptocurrency universe would probably not care. For 1, very little people have heard about bitcoin, let alone monero. Yeah, there are payment services out there that will allow anyone to accept Bitcoin, but most of them just convert straight to fiat money.

and when could this change?

 Does it depend?

I guess crypto-currencies are created with the idea of being useful, I would like to know what are your ideas about Monero being really used.

It will change when people like you, who have something to sell and need to pay people, do so in Monero. This is the catch 22 of all cryptocurrencies really - people need to use it as a currency in order for it to be used as a currency.

Cryptocurrencies are created with the idea of being useful, and Monero is really useful. Whether or not people use it depends on whether or not people use it. This is the paradox. Governments and central banks have the advantage of mandating that their currency is used for all things. No one is demanding that your company pays its bills in bitcoin / monero - its all opt in. And because its all opt-in, there needs to be a large number of people opting in, otherwise your point is exactly right - it won't be really used.

[iCEBREAKER]

Does bitcoin have a 3x or 5x move left in it? I've given up completely on a 10-20x parabola.

Without a 3x or 5x increase in the 1 MB blocksize limit I do not see the fundamentals to support that; nevertheless It is quite possible we see a manifestation of the "greater fool theory" driving such a move.

Bitcoin has a potential 3000-50,000x increase at 1MB, because the market values demonstrated stability, immutability, scalability, and antifragility above all else.

I'd like to be wrong here but it seems AM is casually/causally linking tx/sec with blocksize, which constitutes a fundamental type error.

Given the fairly orthogonal relationship between Layer 1 and Layer 2 tps (courtesy of Lightning-type payment channels) that purported linkage may prove to be invalid, and a worse-than-useless metric of utility/utilization.

EG, a mere 3x or 5x Layer 1 blocksize increase would move us approximately 0% of the way forward to 10k/sec Visa-scale goal.