[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

Price speculation:

Higher highs and higher lows in XMR\BTC have persisted since the last days of May.  The trend channel aggression has been moderating on a scale of weeks, which suggests that it is asymptotic to sustainable price levels.  Every channel baseline since May is bullish, but recent action suggests a choice upcoming: Continue the mid-June support line upward, or go nearly sideways on the July support baseline.   

I am inclined to expect sideways action through August, until declining supply or a demand catalyst (e.g. GUI) force it up.  I find it difficult to imagine anything more than a brief excursion below 280k going forward because of the $2 attractor, assuming stable XBTUSD.  My new marks for cheap/dear in the coming week are 298k/348k, but I always keep in mind that the risk is asymmetric, and mostly upward, especially on longer horizons, and moderate exposure accordingly.

[1715445381]

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[1715445381]

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[dEBRUYNE]

In case anyone hadn't seen it yet, an update from moneromooo:

The last milestone's reached!

• A lot of ringCT integration - almost ready now
• a version check between daemon and simplewallet (to avoid compatibility issues)
• some RPC fixes (integrated address transfers missing payment id, set/get ban having a missing _ in name)
• port of my old cold storage patch to ringCT (partway through)
• better output selection (to avoid using related inputs if possible)
• new commands to export/import signed key images (for optional auditability)
• plus the never ending random fixes

Thanks

Source: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2410/a-continuation-for-all-purpose-programming-of-what-needs-to-get-done-in-monero?page=&noscroll=1#post-5141

I suppose it will be time for a new FFS thread for him soon™.

P.S. The Ring CT branch can be followed here:

https://github.com/moneromooo-monero/bitmonero/tree/rct-private-fork

P.P.S. "Old cold storage patch" is the offline signing code as far as I know, which was previously listed here:

https://github.com/moneromooo-monero/bitmonero/commit/3c44e9fb6c1b57852d37780414ed6e42afc19afb

[dEBRUYNE]

MAAM #26 Monero Ask Anything Monday

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4wppcc/maam_26_monero_ask_anything_monday/

[Febo]

 Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels.  Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread!  XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again.  I like it.

Yep, the price looks nice lately.
Was there any new development or news? What made the price rise?

Buyers  


Large market buys like those generally have me thinking short closing...  

Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.

[s1gs3gv]

Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.

This seems, on first look, to be true. XMR hasn't had the speculative feeding frenzy we're seeing these days in alts as what appears to be whales who made big bucks in the ETH ICO selectively iterate thru different coins every week and run pumps and dumps, leaving a little on the table so they can come back later to rinse and repeat.

Strange times in alt land.

[smoothie]

Yes. when someone buys 20k XMR moves market simply because there are no desperate sellers. Seems miners hold what they mine. It is not demand that pushes price up but lack of supply.

This seems, on first look, to be true. XMR hasn't had the speculative feeding frenzy we're seeing these days in alts as what appears to be whales who made big bucks in the ETH ICO selectively iterate thru different coins every week and run pumps and dumps, leaving a little on the table so they can come back later to rinse and repeat.

Strange times in alt land.

1. I'm pleased that Monero is not pumping to the moon just because...

and

2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.

Hopefully the market is steady and not going into pump and dump mode.

[s1gs3gv]

2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.

It seems that XMR holders are mostly not interested in selling at these levels.

[smoothie]

2. Price increase should come from usage and a growing economy, not lack of supply because of hoarders.

It seems that XMR holders are mostly not interested in selling at these levels.

Can't argue with that.

My hope is that artificial value doesn't emerge just because of lack of supply.

Dash is a perfect example of this.

[s1gs3gv]

Dash is a perfect example of this.

the mcafee effect ~LOL~

[aerbax]

(xpost from the main Monero thread)

Looks like the Monero StackExchange "site" may open to the public tomorrow (8/9) (that's today for some of you)!

(This will probably only work for those of you in the private beta)
Link: http://meta.monero.stackexchange.com/questions/42/where-can-we-check-how-long-until-monero-is-in-private-beta/44#44

If you're NOT in the beta, I've got a screenshot available:
https://hellomonero.com/article/could-monero-stackexchange-site-open-public-tomorrow

Congrats to all who participated!

[bitebits]

My hope is that artificial value doesn't emerge just because of lack of supply.
Dash is a perfect example of this.

the McAfee effect ~LOL~

You mean preventing it from spreading like a virus? Can't oppose.

But to be serious, highly agree with smoothie. Limiting supply may be increasing the price of the few coins actually being traded, but it is artificial and bad for liquidity. The market would be very thin for buying or selling any serious amount.

[smoothie]

As of my comment right now, 1 XMR is 1/10th the price of 1 oz of silver.

[nioc]

There has been discussion from time to time in regards to getting XMR on other exchanges for a) diversity and b) exposure on bigger markets.  The status quo has resulted in us fulfilling b).

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

[Eidheen]

Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels.  Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread!  XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again.  I like it.

[explorer]

Here we are, back into the late 03/16 price levels.  Nice green candles, and all quiet in the speculation thread!  XBT also creeping back up, putting XMR back in the $2 range again.  I like it.

Nice quote.  You should credit me for the writing of it, at least.

[dEBRUYNE]

The Monero StackExchange is now in Public Beta!

https://monero.stackexchange.com/

[aminorex]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

[Tommyhurley]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

Exactly for this reason I bought 2500 XMR extra earlier today. I'm done now - apparently miners are not selling anthing below [x?] USD

[Bassica]

I never really feel I have enough. Every paycheck adds some xmr to the stash

[ArticMine]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

Market making with a crypto currency like Monero can be very trough. As you correctly point out the market is going to have to find the appropriate levels after the GUI, and also after RingCT/multisig.

Edit: There is also the question of 0.0042-0.0043 XBT levels form a technical perspective. Monero has been in a trading range from 0.0009-0.0043 XBT since August 2014. A breakout from this trading range could be very sharp.