[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

Where do we need to draw the lines now for Aminorex's marketmaking?

I'd like

1.  a BitSquare.io node
2.  a market-making bot to (safely/dispassionately) manage a few 1000 XMR worth of buys and sells on the BitSquare

I believe that's the path towards fixing the potential single point of failure Polo dependency.

It might be easiest to add a bot integral to bitsquare.  This one scores high on page-rank and might be a candidate for the boilerplate: https://github.com/gazbert/bxbot

[1715283525]

1715283525

[1715283525]

1715283525

[1715283525]

1715283525

[1715283525]

1715283525

[novag]

Storm is coming...

[sparky999]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/darknet-customers-are-demanding-bitcoin-alternative-monero-cm671031

[tifozi]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/darknet-customers-are-demanding-bitcoin-alternative-monero-cm671031

Barbeque 

Market makers get nothing from holders, only from traders.

80% of all day-traders are losers.  20% are gambling addicts.  Rough numbers. (Edit: Mostly, the addicts are a subset of the losers.)

And yes, it is better to buy on a breakout, because every new ATH is preceded by a breakout.

Great post, something 90% of the thread needs to learn from.

[Anon136]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

[primer-]

Next HARD-FORK is happening in 26 days ?! Which clients will no longer be compatible ?!

[Globb0]

Just a little light relief. A little dip and I'm buying a few more hundred

[obit33]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

If I were a vendor, I would ask risk premia for using bitcoin, or just not accept it at all if I had xmr as an alternative... No need for lots of mental faculties when you're scared

[aminorex]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

My understanding is that both Oasis and AlphaBay implemented Monero on the basis of demand, rather than speculation or compensation by the currency team.  It is possible that this is just PR and they are doing it on speculation, and already found sufficient profit by front-running the public information.  We will discover that soon enough, by observing listings and transaction volumes.

The lack of multisig is definitely hurting now.  Probably more so than lack of GUI.  A Tor-accessible web wallet with multisig support would be basically as good as a GUI for usability.  In fact it would put us way ahead of Bitcoin in terms of usability.

[aminorex]

If I were a vendor, I would ask risk premia for using bitcoin, or just not accept it at all if I had xmr as an alternative... No need for lots of mental faculties when you're scared

Certainly the incremental costs of effective laundering (were there such a thing) are an incentive to use XMR instead.  But usually the margins on these things are high enough so that it's almost noise.

In other news, I assume everyone has noticed the 500 BTC (and growing) added to the bid book recently.  Also I notice an occasional ephemeral ~200BTC bid wall.  So much heat, so little light!  Nothing happens because no one is selling.  Lots of liquidity, but not enough price discovery.  Fear is the mind killer.  Maybe this will be a "buy the news" event, after all.  It will remove doubt, when it is accomplished.

Now 36k offered on the ask side.  A response to the whale song from the bid side?  If you assume that any book-sweep will be followed by a support vacuum, it might make sense to short a gob at some reasonably high quote.  That strategy offered some good gains last night, maybe as much as 800bp on the trade if you timed it very nicely.

But no, it appears to be functioning as a scare wall. 

[smoothie]

I have a hunch that they will release the gui wallet sometime before Monero trading on AlphaBay begins on Sept 1.

Soon..

Well that might be icing on the cake as far as price rise.  Looking forward to the GUI myself.

Not happening before Sep 1.  I will ride the NYC subway naked if the GUI is released before Sept 1st

LOL quoted for posterity.

[Anon136]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

My understanding is that both Oasis and AlphaBay implemented Monero on the basis of demand, rather than speculation or compensation by the currency team.  It is possible that this is just PR and they are doing it on speculation, and already found sufficient profit by front-running the public information.  We will discover that soon enough, by observing listings and transaction volumes.

The lack of multisig is definitely hurting now.  Probably more so than lack of GUI.  A Tor-accessible web wallet with multisig support would be basically as good as a GUI for usability.  In fact it would put us way ahead of Bitcoin in terms of usability.

My understanding from what I have read from the oasis team is that almost no one uses multisig. Not only that but people are going further and releasing funds before receiving their product.

[nioc]

As for price speculation, even though those with skills far beyond mine are predicting significantly lower prices on the horizon I just don't see how that can happen.  Too much new interest and the dnms will not be a bust. 

In case you are talking about rpietila recent posts, which I really enjoy btw, he is clearly talking his book.

Yes and others as well. 

finger on the trigger

I am not in the game, but personally, I think anything under $4 is a steal.  Lucky if you get it.

Yes and Yes

Just a little light relief. A little dip and I'm buying a few more hundred

Yes


Whatever happens it's all good

[nioc]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

Because 2 years ago it seems virtually all btc users thought it was anonymous enough and now there is a significant % that realize this is not the case.  Now there are companies whose sole purpose is tracing btc transactions.  It seems even mixers are vulnerable. 

I guess the means having a little faith.

[Anon136]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

Because 2 years ago it seems virtually all btc users thought it was anonymous enough and now there is a significant % that realize this is not the case.  Now there are companies whose sole purpose is tracing btc transactions.  It seems even mixers are vulnerable. 

I guess the means having a little faith.

Maybe so

[jehst]

My understanding from what I have read from the oasis team is that almost no one uses multisig. Not only that but people are going further and releasing funds before receiving their product.

You're right. FE is common practice. Sellers hate multi-sig because of a) bitcoin volatility and b) because they want the bitcoin in hand. And buyers will do whatever the biggest trusted sellers want and buyers accept that every so often, sellers will exit scam. Seems like it's a seller's market. If sellers start demanding XMR, then the buyers will acquire it. If not, then not.

[Anon136]

My understanding from what I have read from the oasis team is that almost no one uses multisig. Not only that but people are going further and releasing funds before receiving their product.

You're right. FE is common practice. Sellers hate multi-sig because of a) bitcoin volatility and b) because they want the bitcoin in hand. And buyers will do whatever the biggest trusted sellers want and buyers accept that every so often, sellers will exit scam. Seems like it's a seller's market. If sellers start demanding XMR, then the buyers will acquire it. If not, then not.

I think this is more to do with multisig being an inadequate tool (for this particular application) than anything else. It's too easy to send a box with a rock in it the right weight and then show the arbitrator your receipt. So buyers prefer a trusted non multisig seller to a non trusted one accepting multisig. If multisig was a better solution people would prefer the latter.

[aminorex]

My understanding from what I have read from the oasis team is that almost no one uses multisig. Not only that but people are going further and releasing funds before receiving their product.

You're right. FE is common practice. Sellers hate multi-sig because of a) bitcoin volatility and b) because they want the bitcoin in hand. And buyers will do whatever the biggest trusted sellers want and buyers accept that every so often, sellers will exit scam. Seems like it's a seller's market. If sellers start demanding XMR, then the buyers will acquire it. If not, then not.

If that is the case, then I would expect multisig to be associated with low-reputation vendors, and consider that XMR would tend to become associated with high-reputation vendors.  That sort of social signaling feedback loop can be quite powerful.

[iCEBREAKER]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

Dash uses its own version of Coinjoin, which DNM were already using to tumble.

But Dash's version has far less volume, so mixing takes hours or days.

And most DNM ops understood it was instamined.

Awareness of fungibility, block size, hard forkability, and the dangers of bad crypto (thanks DAO) are at ATH.  XMR was already on the anon community radar since Shen broke Shadowcash, if not earlier.

[aerbax]

If you will allow me to play devils advocate. I have very little faith in the mental faculties of my fellow man. Consequently I find it hard to believe that dash failed to gain traction on the darknet markets it was introduced on as a result of any sort of technical understanding on the part of market actors. Meaning, to most of them, monero is going to appear indistinguishable. What reason do we have to believe a private currency will gain traction this time when it failed last time?

Dash uses its own version of Coinjoin, which DNM were already using to tumble.

But Dash's version has far less volume, so mixing takes hours or days.

And most DNM ops understood it was instamined.

Awareness of fungibility, block size, hard forkability, and the dangers of bad crypto (thanks DAO) are at ATH.  XMR was already on the anon community radar since Shen broke Shadowcash, if not earlier.

This is the best answer, IMO.

It feels to me that this is the third "real" test of cryptocurrencies.  Bitcoin proved that it was possible.  Ethereum almost made it, but the hype vs flaws deflated that dream (which it may eventually overcome - at least for dapps).

This is Monero's time to shine.  And it's ours to lose. 

We have the technical innovation.  We have a great community.  We can do this.