[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

Monero is and will be a niche coin.

Until it isn't.  That particular niche is a peculiarly viral one, under the right conditions - conditions such as financial repression, bail-ins, quantitative easing, negative interest rates, confiscatory taxation, capital controls, counterparty chain failures, trade globalization, commodity deflation, sovereign instability, overregulation of trade, graft and extortion, kidnappings, class war, Owellian surveillance, corporate secrecy.  Oh, and then there is scalability...

If the world were becoming a safer, more congenial place, in which human dignity and self-determination was in the ascendance, the importance of privacy might erode over time.  If instead it becomes more dangerous, less stable, if the power of the rapacious rises, and confidence in the social, political, legal and economic paradigm declines, then the appeal of privacy, and it's market value, will rise, or even explode.

My view is that the probability mass is firmly on the latter side, culminating in a failure of old paradigms, and their replacement with new ones which are more robust to the causes of recent instability, and better adapted to the new opportunities which arise in the meantime.

We can calibrate from the mid-2013 precedent what marketcap is suppored by DNMs alone (accounting for their growth, and scaling by present market share).  It is enough to make it feasible to transact in a freely floating crypto at most practical sizes.  Securing wealth will drive the big gains after some such threshold is passed.  Confidential corporate transactions would suffice to take it "mainstream" soon thereafter.

Not to mention that even if it is a niche coin (which it isn't) it is the only current coin that can fill that niche therefore giving it massive value from that area alone. Oh wait I mentioned that.

On a side note it's great reading your posts again, forgot how much  I enjoy them.

[sp_skeptic]

To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

To me too, but that is entirely irrelevant. What matters is what the IRS thinks. I have spent a _lot_ of time researching this, and my conclusions have led me to declare and pay taxes on all my Bitcoin profits when converting to Monero. The upside is there is less tax to pay when selling the Monero because the basis will be higher.

The IRS will rule on this and if it goes the way I think it will go, those who have claimed like kind and declared their transactions as such will face penalties and interest. For those who haven't declared those transactions at all, it could be a lot worse.

It's onerous to declare all your transactions, but there is software that simplifies it. You just download your Coinbase or Poloniex logs and it creates the IRS report.

[bobabouey2]

To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

To me too, but that is entirely irrelevant. What matters is what the IRS thinks. I have spent a _lot_ of time researching this, and my conclusions have led me to declare and pay taxes on all my Bitcoin profits when converting to Monero. The upside is there is less tax to pay when selling the Monero because the basis will be higher.

The IRS will rule on this and if it goes the way I think it will go, those who have claimed like kind and declared their transactions as such will face penalties and interest. For those who haven't declared those transactions at all, it could be a lot worse.

It's onerous to declare all your transactions, but there is software that simplifies it. You just download your Coinbase or Poloniex logs and it creates the IRS report.

I agree with sp_skeptic.  And can add two practical examples showing why the direct exchange of one crypto for another (without going through USD) is not relevant.

1.  I buy gold, it appreciates.  I trade the gold for a car.  A barter transaction has occurred, it is a taxable even for disposition of the gold.  Doing it with crypto on a fancy exchange doesn't change this.  the barter rules was specifically what the IRS referenced when you "spend" crypto to buy something.

2.  If avoiding the USD transaction worked, you would have exchanges where you could exchange stocks directly.  Even if there was less liquidity and it was a little harder to match your exact transaction, the upside from deferring taxes when trading stocks would be huge.

[chilly2k]

To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

To me too, but that is entirely irrelevant. What matters is what the IRS thinks. I have spent a _lot_ of time researching this, and my conclusions have led me to declare and pay taxes on all my Bitcoin profits when converting to Monero. The upside is there is less tax to pay when selling the Monero because the basis will be higher.

The IRS will rule on this and if it goes the way I think it will go, those who have claimed like kind and declared their transactions as such will face penalties and interest. For those who haven't declared those transactions at all, it could be a lot worse.

It's onerous to declare all your transactions, but there is software that simplifies it. You just download your Coinbase or Poloniex logs and it creates the IRS report.

   Playing Devils advocate here.  Where do you get the value of bitcoin at time your trade is made?  Since bitcoin can vary by a hundred or more dollars depending on where you look, is your choice,  IRS approved? 

 I don't really have to worry about this at the moment, but it will be interesting to see what the official stance is in the future.  I'll have to mention it to my CPA and see what he thinks.  Of course I have a feeling he'll say whatever will make him the most money...     

[KeyJockey]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

Stopped sounding "crazy" and started sounding "inevitable" after stupid DASH got there first.

Even more after Dash dipped back down to the $50's and now's come BACK to $100-ish again.

If someone told me this would happen a year ago I would've laughed 'em outta the room LOL

[nioc]

Maybe somebody knows when they are planning website redesign?

It is currently being worked on and I think people will like it 

[nioc]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

What always sounded crazy was $0.50

Recently I have found myself driving more slowly

[aminorex]

It is very easy to underestimate the might of the USD.  After all it has survived a massive amount of damage in the last 90 years.

Loosing 95% of its value in that time is almost indistinguishable from non-survival.  The residual is noise.

[kurious]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

What always sounded crazy was $0.50

Recently I have found myself driving more slowly

Ahem. I know exactly what you mean; life is a little more... precious of late.

[aminorex]

I strongly advise owning your crypto in an after-tax retirement account, so that gains are tax-free.

[guesswho1234]

I wouldn't. Of course, in my country cryptocurrency profits are for free because the high court of the EU declared cryptos as a currency (if you go on holidays outside of the eurozone, you don't pay taxes either for the foreign fiat currency you buy right?)
If the situation is different in your country, I'd argue that they aren't realized profits yet until you convert to fiat? You could still lose it all (from their perspective) so would be useless to pay taxes on income you never realized right?
But I'm not a lawyer.

In the US this is kind of a grey area. The question is whether exchanging one crypto for another is a "like kind" transaction. If you sell one pasture and buy another that is considered a like kind transaction and you don't have to pay taxes, you just carry the basis forward. But if you sell one stock and buy another that is specifically not considered like kind and you have to pay taxes.

The IRS hasn't ruled on crypto as like kind or not, but most people who have looked into it, including myself, think it's not. So if you sell appreciated Bitcoin to buy Monero you have to pay taxes on your gain in Bitcoin.  Even if you decide to claim like kind on crypto transactions you have to report the transaction to the IRS, so they will know who to come after when they finally make a ruling.

The one thing you do not want to do is fail to declare your crypto transactions to the IRS. They WILL find you.

So what are you going to do when you buy a few ripple and it skyrockets and it hits your limit sell order and immediately back through your buy order a bit lower but a bit later your stop loss market order is hit and you divide some between stellar and convert some to XMR. And a bit later you cash out of stellar and buy something. And each time you change crypto you have to go through BTC first. And that was in 3 minutes

How the hell do you fill that in your tax declaration?

calculate your gains/losses with this https://bitcoin.tax/

then simply report a capital gain or loss on your taxes.

if you dont want to fill out so much data and just want a quick overview over your profit/loss you can check out my little project (works for poloniex traders and  ms excel 2016 only)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1545898.msg15540584#msg15540584

[InOneOutTwo]

Damn I wish I kept this when I had it for $6-8...

[sp_skeptic]

Playing Devils advocate here.  Where do you get the value of bitcoin at time your trade is made?  Since bitcoin can vary by a hundred or more

That is a problem for which I'm pretty sure there's no official IRS answer. I downloaded daily Bitcoin prices (I think from Quandl) and used those. Since the IRS doesn't provide guidance for this I would hope that I'm ok as long as I use a consistent source and don't cherrypick the Bitcoin values.

[chilly2k]

Playing Devils advocate here.  Where do you get the value of bitcoin at time your trade is made?  Since bitcoin can vary by a hundred or more

That is a problem for which I'm pretty sure there's no official IRS answer. I downloaded daily Bitcoin prices (I think from Quandl) and used those. Since the IRS doesn't provide guidance for this I would hope that I'm ok as long as I use a consistent source and don't cherrypick the Bitcoin values.

   If it ever gets to this point, you'll be getting 1099's from your exchange of choice, and there will be no more trading in the US without a taxpayer ID.  When you see that, then it's time to worry, or maybe they'll have figured out how it should be reported by then.  Until that time, try to report it as you see fit, and you should be fine. 

   The IRS isn't really a big bad machine.  I had issues in the past, I was able to make my case, and almost took it to tax court to get it documented, but instead settled it.  It wasn't as scary as you would think, and eventually they saw the error of their ways... 

   This might be getting a little off topic for the Monero spec thread, but had to see what others are doing.  Thanks for the input. 

[elrippo]

Oohhh (i)my god, you are playing with (ii)your life right now 

i) AT EASE.

ii) How much, and which one?

You seem to have rough times in front of you....
Try to ease up a little bit and get some sleep Risto, would be a good idea  

[Whtwabbit]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

I remember fantasising that Monero may get to $10 one day, my fantasy was destroyed by reality, I'm going to move that outrageous dream to $400

Dreamers gotta dream

[explorer]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

I remember fantasising that Monero may get to $10 one day, my fantasy was destroyed by reality, I'm going to move that outrageous dream to $400

Dreamers gotta dream

I like to look more than 18 months ahead 

[Zegra]

Now that seems like a lot. But Bitcoin is only at 1500-1600 euros now.
Will 400 still seem like a lot when Bitcoin reaches 5000 euros? I don't think so.

[Billy Bunter]

I strongly advise owning your crypto in an after-tax retirement account, so that gains are tax-free.

Aminorex, can you advise how to do that? Specifically, if I have a Roth IRA at Fidelity, how do I use that to manage my Monero?

Many thanks.

[KeyJockey]

Now that seems like a lot. But Bitcoin is only at 1500-1600 euros now.
Will 400 still seem like a lot when Bitcoin reaches 5000 euros? I don't think so.

My "hope" numbers nowadays are something like BTC $10,000 and XMR about $400

And, yes, that's not "proportional" being only about 7X for HoneyBadger, but about 15X for HoneyPony (being as how XMR has so much more unrealized potential).

Downside?  I'd expect we'll never see BTC below about $600 again --worst-case scenario-- *unless* it goes all the way to $0 in some catastrophic failure.

And maybe XMR won't ever get back down below, say maybe like $7 or $8 bucks??  Not so sure about this one though, what do you guys think?