[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Zegra]

There hasn't been a serious altcoin bubble bursting since the rise of Monero the last year AFAIK. So we have no past data to learn from. I know I'm buying everything I can permit myself between 10-15 euros though in such an event.

[Majormax]

There hasn't been a serious altcoin bubble bursting since the rise of Monero the last year AFAIK. So we have no past data to learn from. I know I'm buying everything I can permit myself between 10-15 euros though in such an event.

This will only be the second serious bubble. It is already at a very late stage : there are many coins with dead blockchains trading huge volumes and price (exactly as before).

The burst of the first, in early 2014, was chaotic, and liquidity drained rapidly from every altcoin into BTC, the only 'safe haven' at the time... The best actively developed coins were hit hard, and recovered very slowly, the dead ones carried on down.

This time it will be instructive to see which of the really big coins are considered 'safe havens' , and which are not.

[CTTE]

I strongly advise owning your crypto in an after-tax retirement account, so that gains are tax-free.

Aminorex, can you advise how to do that? Specifically, if I have a Roth IRA at Fidelity, how do I use that to manage my Monero?

Many thanks.

Aminorex can probably give a much better answer to this since it sounds like he's already done it but in the meantime, here's what I found.

I've just started to look at this option for myself and it comes down to creating a Self Directed IRA (ROTH) with checkbook control.  I've seen it explained at https://www.broadfinancial.com/self-directed-ira/ where they set up an LLC explicitly to hold crypto and other assets and then your IRA invests in the LLC which you manage personally, allowing you to fully control your investments directly without having to pay someone fees for every transaction you want to make while waiting for days for it to actually happen.  It seems like a pretty good idea if you believe your investments will grow as much in the future as monero has in the past year or two. So, if your 10,000 Monero that you buy for $30 end up being $1200 each, your gain is completely tax free!

I mentioned Broad Financial but, I don't know how many others are out there that do the same thing maybe with better options, they were just the first firm that showed up in my search so don't take it as a recommendation.

Edit: If anybody has done this and can recommend a good company to work with, that would be  very helpful.

[aminorex]

And maybe XMR won't ever get back down below, say maybe like $7 or $8 bucks??  Not so sure about this one though, what do you guys think?

If someone dumps enough of anything it can go to zero, but only very briefly.  At 7-8$ I would be filling my bags w ith both hands, and telling all my friends.  But so would thousands (in future, millions) of others.

[aminorex]

Madisontrust.com is the web site of the custodian of record for Broad Financial.  I used them.  Constructing an operating agreement for the LLC is a bit...levered.  it is probably worth paying for advice on that, if you can.

If your crypto is in a Roth you can't use it, but you can borrow cash from the account, and pay yourself back with interest, potentially on a rather long-term plan. Again, the subtlet is suggest legal advice is warranted.  After age 59.5 there are no limits on withdrawals.  Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

[Wekkel]

And maybe XMR won't ever get back down below, say maybe like $7 or $8 bucks??  Not so sure about this one though, what do you guys think?

If someone dumps enough of anything it can go to zero, but only very briefly.  At 7-8$ I would be filling my bags w ith both hands, and telling all my friends.  But so would thousands (in future, millions) of others.

This but no point in telling friends but the bravest. It's still an extremely risky bet compared to regular investing.

[cryptimus prime]

From the aspect of technical analysis there are two very bullish patterns overlapping for XMR.

One is the cup and handle: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/46BzGzOV-XMR-BTC-Parabolic-Breakout/

The other one is the ascending triangle: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/5qGjmJnb-Monero-Ascending-Triangle-Bullish-XMR-LONG/

This technical aspects then further overlap with many updates to come: MyMonero App, Multisig, Kovri (big game changer).

And all this overlaps with a high possibility of XMR beeing integrated into Coinbase/GDAX and presented to a base of 6 million customers as they want to grow the diversity of the digital asset available for trade. And yes Coinbase can implement XMR as US based company, there is no problem with that, as Kraken could also and they are in San Francisco (US, California jurisdiction). Don`t let liars, trolls and misinformations misguide you.

And yes XMR is the only coin which is not overpumped like other alts, so it would also be a safe haven when BTC dips.

So when looking at this picture hollistically you may think as an owner or buyer of XMR you are sitting on a pile of gold.
I think its even better.

[antw081]

Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This is a good point. When XMR is one day worth $100, $500 or $1000 USD in the years to come. You gonna maybe want to let someone know how to access that juicy XMR wallet(s) just in case you die suddenly (car accident, heart attack etc).

Who to trust the keys to your wallet? I would prefer no one knows until I am actually dead.

Sorry, a bit off-topic I realised.

[Quicken]

Hi all,
Great to see another ATH. I'm not looking to sell right now, but I am looking for information/advice on direct XMR to fiat conversion for large sums.

It seems that services include Kraken, Bitfinex, and maybe Bitsquare.

Does anyone have any experience using these services? KYC issues? Withdrawal limits? Security? Privacy?
Best, Q

No Bitfinex they have closed fiat withdrawals for some time now. Best is Kraken, but ofcourse you will have no anonimity there.

Thanks Febo. I don't need anonymity for this. You don't get that through the Poloniex -> Circle/Uphold route anyway, and I'm paying the Capital Gains Tax due.

It would be nice if Kraken would produce more fiat trading pairs than the current XMR/EUR and XMR/USD, but it's possible to manage that with an international currency account.

I don't see withdrawal limits on the Kraken faq, or anywhere else I looked on the website. When one wants to move six figures of name-your-currency it becomes a big issue. Anyone able to provide this info?
Cheers, Q

[coinits]

Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This is a good point. When XMR is one day worth $100, $500 or $1000 USD in the years to come. You gonna maybe want to let someone know how to access that juicy XMR wallet(s) just in case you die suddenly (car accident, heart attack etc).

Who to trust the keys to your wallet? I would prefer no one knows until I am actually dead.

Sorry, a bit off-topic I realised.

That is what estate lawyers are for. You can leave the keys to the wallet(s) to someone that do not get to see them until you are actually dead. The legal firm must be trustworthy and, beleive it or not, most are.

[OrangeP]

Kraken has $200000 / month afaik.

[Quicken]

Kraken has $200000 / month afaik.

Thanks OrangeP. Have you used Kraken?
Cheers, Q

[OrangeP]

Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This is a good point. When XMR is one day worth $100, $500 or $1000 USD in the years to come. You gonna maybe want to let someone know how to access that juicy XMR wallet(s) just in case you die suddenly (car accident, heart attack etc).

Who to trust the keys to your wallet? I would prefer no one knows until I am actually dead.

Sorry, a bit off-topic I realised.

That is what estate lawyers are for. You can leave the keys to the wallet(s) to someone that do not get to see them until you are actually dead. The legal firm must be trustworthy and, beleive it or not, most are.

You'll need to use cryptography. Combine public with private knowledge.

1. Store your private key in a keystore.
2. Protect your keystore with a long personal password and lay out a public description of it:
 Something like: "My password is the name of my first 5 girlfriends, the one of my mom and my favorite actor and the date I did XYZ"
3. Give it to the people that know the answer.

Note that unless it contains some special characters you'd better do something pretty long.

[coinits]

Kraken has $200000 / month afaik.

Thanks OrangeP. Have you used Kraken?
Cheers, Q

Kraken is great! I did go through the KYC process so I could get my crypto exchanged to dollars as needed.

[saddambitcoin]

Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This is a good point. When XMR is one day worth $100, $500 or $1000 USD in the years to come. You gonna maybe want to let someone know how to access that juicy XMR wallet(s) just in case you die suddenly (car accident, heart attack etc).

Who to trust the keys to your wallet? I would prefer no one knows until I am actually dead.

Sorry, a bit off-topic I realised.

That is what estate lawyers are for. You can leave the keys to the wallet(s) to someone that do not get to see them until you are actually dead. The legal firm must be trustworthy and, beleive it or not, most are.

One thing you could do is:

1. Use https://xmr.llcoins.net/ to create an encrypted mnemonic seed.
2. Protect your seed as you normally do (safe place, multiple backups, cryptosteel, etc).
3. Give your passphrase to the lawyer (or give instructions on where it can be found), so they can provide this to your beneficiaries when you die.

That way, you control the mnemonic when you are alive, and nobody else has access to the actual seed but you.

edit:

4. Put luigi1111 in your will so that he gets some money when your family asks him how the heck to access the Monero.

[KeyJockey]

There hasn't been a serious altcoin bubble bursting since the rise of Monero the last year AFAIK. So we have no past data to learn from. I know I'm buying everything I can permit myself between 10-15 euros though in such an event.

This will only be the second serious bubble. It is already at a very late stage : there are many coins with dead blockchains trading huge volumes and price (exactly as before).

The burst of the first, in early 2014, was chaotic, and liquidity drained rapidly from every altcoin into BTC, the only 'safe haven' at the time... The best actively developed coins were hit hard, and recovered very slowly, the dead ones carried on down.

This time it will be instructive to see which of the really big coins are considered 'safe havens' , and which are not.

Hmm, interesting.  So that time when alts in a bubble popped, the value still remained mostly in crypto?  i.e. "drained" to BTC so that the dollar-value stayed mostly the same, if BTC went up about an equal amount as whatever was lost in the altcoin valuations?

Or did the dollar-value of all marketcap just disappear, i.e. crypto as a whole went DOWN at that time?

Just asking because IF this is the case, it seems to me that one would be reasonably well-protected from this situation if the overall crypto portfolio was balanced about 50% bitcoin and 50% "all other alts" (in whatever percentages you like best for those other alts, of course).

Or am I missing something here?  Hmm

[dreamspark]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

I remember fantasising that Monero may get to $10 one day, my fantasy was destroyed by reality, I'm going to move that outrageous dream to $400

Dreamers gotta dream

Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

[ArticMine]

...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

[jwinterm]

...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

A large part of that is driven by ETH and XRP though (and to a lesser extent XEM and STR), where the majority of available supply is known or suspected to be controlled by a small number of folks. The rise in these coins seems more like a coordinated pump than money actually fleeing BTC imo. To be sure BTC dominance is eroding as more coins find users and speculators, but I suspect this recent drop in the dominance index will correct strongly in fairly short order.

If you look at the all time BTC dominance over time here http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ you can see that each time there has been a sharp drop it's followed by some correction back up over the following weeks/months. The drop this time was especially steep, but I think the correction will be as well (especially if BTC itself starts to push above and beyond $2k USD).

[kurious]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

I remember fantasising that Monero may get to $10 one day, my fantasy was destroyed by reality, I'm going to move that outrageous dream to $400

Dreamers gotta dream

Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

I think this may be true - but not with non-major moves in the price of BTC.  The alts seem to claw up soon after every BTC spike up - implying the orchestra keeps playing for alts while BTC rises or stays strong.  On WallObserver everyone keeps saying 'The end of alts will come with the ultimate rise of BTC' but this 'wipe out and return to BTC' is just NOT happening as they expect.

I don't disagree with ArcticMine but I think it's not one sided; BTC and alts are currently symbiotically linked - but therefore it looks like an overall crypto market bubble - the two parts of the market are ebbing and flowing and feeding each other.   

If BTC were to collapse steeply and go into a bear market, I don't think alts would keep up their current USD values at all - I don't see how they could when their 'cash out value' is basically linked to the worth (and expected worth) of BTC.

So your theory is correct in that the overall market is ultimately BTC-dependent, as is the value of alts - irrespective of the (agreed) differences and genuine alt growing partial autonomy from BTC this time.

If BTC does not (badly) crash but continues to rise, so will the alts and it could go far higher with all the new fuel entering the market.   

If BTC drops badly and sentiment turns - all market caps will lose $ value.