[XMR] Monero Speculation

[russokai]

I know not smart to buy on weakness, but I added some more XMR today.  It allowed me to take some profits on BTC, and I still feel that XMR will be pulled up by BTC eventually, most likely.

[smooth]

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

[guesswho1234]

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

sure but it would really surprise me if the next fork will just create free cash again.

what i mean by that is that bitcoin just holds its price while the new chain has its own value

[smooth]

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

sure but it would really surprise me if the next fork will just create free cash again.

what i mean by that is that bitcoin just holds its price while the new chain has its own value

Immediately after the BCH fork, BTC price dropped. This was predicable and expected, and unlike more efficient markets, in crypto it was actually possible to profit from this drop in a few slightly obscure ways.

Some time later, the BTC price went up, but there is no clear evidence this was a direct result of BCH or that BTC would not have gone up more had some of its value not been split off.

Since we can't really know what causes BTC to rise (or fall), it is difficult to ascribe the rise to BCH and its 'free money'.

There is a viable argument that when beliefs and values differ significantly within a community, the total value might be increased by splitting and giving the two sides the opportunity to each express their full support for a platform consistent with their values rather than a continued fighting over a compromise that satisfies neither. The trade off here is against reduced network effect, but the magnitudes of both factors are completely unknown, so it is certainly possible. This is contingent on both sides of the split actually surviving and amounting to something. The situation with BCH seems still unclear, but it certainly hasn't died yet.

Economics dictates that any such increase in combined value should occur once the split is expected though (not after), so it is possible we could say that the current rise in BTC might be tied in part to the upcoming split(s) (obviously need to balance that against risks that the split(s) could fail or cause other damage, such as by not having replay protection, etc.)

[guesswho1234]

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

sure but it would really surprise me if the next fork will just create free cash again.

what i mean by that is that bitcoin just holds its price while the new chain has its own value

Immediately after the BCH fork, BTC price dropped. This was predicable and expected, and unlike more efficient markets, in crypto it was actually possible to profit from this drop in a few slightly obscure ways.

Some time later, the BTC price went up, but there is no clear evidence this was a direct result of BCH or that BTC would not have gone up more had some of its value not been split off.

Since we can't really know what causes BTC to rise (or fall), it is difficult to ascribe the rise to BCH and its 'free money'.

There is a viable argument that when beliefs and values differ significantly within a community, the total value might be increased by splitting and giving the two sides the opportunity to each express their full support for a platform consistent with their values rather than a continued fighting over a compromise that satisfies neither. The trade off here is against reduced network effect, but the magnitudes of both factors are completely unknown, so it is certainly possible. This is contingent on both sides of the split actually surviving and amounting to something. The situation with BCH seems still unclear, but it certainly hasn't died yet.

Economics dictates that any such increase in combined value should occur once the split is expected though (not after), so it is possible we could say that the current rise in BTC might be tied in part to the upcoming split(s) (obviously need to balance that against risks that the split(s) could fail or cause other damage, such as by not having replay protection, etc.)

cant disagree with anything here

but i doubt most people think that through the way you just presented it.
i think many speculate like "eh it will be bch all over again but this time i buy before so i get more out of the split"

[smooth]

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

sure but it would really surprise me if the next fork will just create free cash again.

what i mean by that is that bitcoin just holds its price while the new chain has its own value

Immediately after the BCH fork, BTC price dropped. This was predicable and expected, and unlike more efficient markets, in crypto it was actually possible to profit from this drop in a few slightly obscure ways.

Some time later, the BTC price went up, but there is no clear evidence this was a direct result of BCH or that BTC would not have gone up more had some of its value not been split off.

Since we can't really know what causes BTC to rise (or fall), it is difficult to ascribe the rise to BCH and its 'free money'.

There is a viable argument that when beliefs and values differ significantly within a community, the total value might be increased by splitting and giving the two sides the opportunity to each express their full support for a platform consistent with their values rather than a continued fighting over a compromise that satisfies neither. The trade off here is against reduced network effect, but the magnitudes of both factors are completely unknown, so it is certainly possible. This is contingent on both sides of the split actually surviving and amounting to something. The situation with BCH seems still unclear, but it certainly hasn't died yet.

Economics dictates that any such increase in combined value should occur once the split is expected though (not after), so it is possible we could say that the current rise in BTC might be tied in part to the upcoming split(s) (obviously need to balance that against risks that the split(s) could fail or cause other damage, such as by not having replay protection, etc.)

cant disagree with anything here

but i doubt most people think that through the way you just presented it.
i think many speculate like "eh it will be bch all over again but this time i buy before so i get more out of the split"

That's not inconsistent. The key question is whether the resulting split-off new coin gets buyers. For it to get buyers it has to have some sort of community supporting it and believing that it has a chance (including maybe even small in numbers but large in wealth, or some such). If not then it will crash to a very low value (much lower than BCH) quickly and then people trying to buy now to get more out of the split will be disappointed. Clearly that can't be the expectation, but it could be the result.

[russokai]

If you buy XMR with BTC, you get about 12% more than you would have gotten yesterday.   Yet XMR USD price is only down about 1%.  I just converted a bit more BTC to XMR, but going to stop for now.

[Big Naturals]

i mean i get it. bitcoin cash was released, people sold it, and btc went even higher.

Not everyone sold it, some obviously bought and continue to buy. It still has a market price of over 300 USD and #4 by CMC.

Its not overturning BTC's lead any time soon but it isn't disappearing either.

BCH fork created a new crypto wth a new community, based largely on tech considerations on scaling.

November fork is about control, and not tech, so chances of both forks continuing successfully is very small IMO.

2x fork is a winner take ALL, BCH was a divorce

[KeyJockey]

BCH fork created a new crypto wth a new community, based largely on tech considerations on scaling.

November fork is about control, and not tech, so chances of both forks continuing successfully is very small IMO.

2x fork is a winner take ALL, BCH was a divorce

Agree on this: interesting too that the BCH "new" community seems to be composed perhaps of more "old(er) school" traditionalists bitcoiners who want the scaling effort attempt to proceed more simply, i.e. Just blocks get bigger and all depends mostly on Metcalfs Law continuing, hardware to keep advancing, bandwidth growing and getting cheaper etc etc

Isn't this kinda also what Monero believers think?  i.e. XMR blockchain getting so big but we're not worrying about it too much around here...

More interesting to see too AFTER this 1x-2x BTC fork, what will happen between the "winner" and BCH... if/when the transaction backlogs come again and what transaction fees will be.... AND what USERS will DO, then...?

Such Speculation. So confuse. Very CryptoTypical. Wow.  

[cAPSLOCK]

LOL.  Even with XMRBTC melting down it cant quite drop fast enough for Bitcoin not to drag it's price up in XMRUSD a little.

I need to stop watching.  It tempts me to make a risky trade.

[MaseaMnite]

It seems my buy orders got filled  Cool

Buying everything I can under 0.004, wish I had more fiat/BTC..

[rangedriver]

How often in this space the phrase "Sale Day" is used to mask obvious declines.

In this instance, certainly in XMR/BTC terms, the phrase is well deserved... especially if you have the bitquidity to take advantage.

[iCEBREAKER]

How often in this space the phrase "Sale Day" is used to mask obvious declines.

In this instance, certainly in XMR/BTC terms, the phrase is well deserved... especially if you have the bitquidity to take advantage.

Monero is stupid cheap when its market cap is less than 1/2 of Litecoin's.  I'm refilling the bags I emptied at >0.03BTC.

In a year from now, kids won't remember how the world worked before Kovri+Aero+multisig+StringCT+Ledger+Coinomi...

[Febo]

Looks like monero has been dropping a lot in the last week, i dont know the real reason of it, but it is weird to see it dropping a lot because this is one of the most strong altcoins that are on the market right now.
it is so weird.. What do you think guys? will it recover soon or not? it is $86 atm, and it touched $80 on today's morning, i dont know what to expect from monero, i thought it was going to reach $200.

$91 to $87. That is not something huge. Most other coins lost more because of Bitcoin rally. It is always that way.   When Bitcoin stops grow it will suck all altcoins up including Monero.  To perform better then other Monero needs to just do its own thing.

[CryptoPH]

What i really hate at the moment is that I don't have any Bitcoin to buy more Monero anymore. Sigh. 

[johnalan]

How often in this space the phrase "Sale Day" is used to mask obvious declines.

In this instance, certainly in XMR/BTC terms, the phrase is well deserved... especially if you have the bitquidity to take advantage.

Are we going to 0.03 by mid next year? I think it's feasible.

Dash at 0.06 currently is disgusting.

[KeyJockey]

What i really hate at the moment is that I don't have any Bitcoin to buy more Monero anymore. Sigh. 

Last I checked, that weird old-fashioned green paper stuff still worked (for a while longer, I guess anyway...) LOL

[russokai]

XMR joining the party and up almost 10%.  I'm glad I added 15% more to my holdings yesterday.

[KiXiNiT]

XMR joining the party and up almost 10%.  I'm glad I added 15% more to my holdings yesterday.

Most Alts are up, XMR is up no doubt but its just one of the pack at the moment.

[cAPSLOCK]

Interesting.  The three cryptocurrencies that are not still bleeding profusely are ETH LTC and XMR.

Too short a time frame to really be conclusive, but it supports the theory that the ALT shakeout will end with a return to only the projects with perceived quality or utility.

(I hold no ETH, but there is no way to ignore it's real and perceived value.  I hold very little LTC, but it's history, plus it's testbed status are carrying it IMO.  And, of course if I had not lost all my XMR I would be happy today...)