[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

the desire not to take a loss

Okay that requires modeling loss aversion which is considered 'irrational' and usually excluded from most (non-behavioral) economics, including this paper. Though of course not being rational doesn't make it any less real.

Probably one would want to include the degree of loss aversion in the model, for example, different classes of miners probably differ, but I won't pretend to suggest how.

In this paper increasing hash rate causes higher coin value/price due to greater perceived (and I suppose actual) security. I guess that is a similar result though via a different mechanism.

[Hueristic]

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

i WOULD ARGUE THAT bITMAIN HAS BEEN IN THIS GAME LONG ENOUGH TO (WELL SHIT CAPSLOCK AGAIN | IRONIC) know exactly how to sell without hurting the market and therefore their future earnings so I would doubt that they would dump. They create these for a living and sell the coins continuously I'm sure so I doubt they would dump out of spite and the fact that the market is absorbing these dumps just shows a lack of finesse, it looks more like a pissed little kid. My guess goes to Reptilla.

[hirozaki faraday]

I have been analyzing the Monero chart and according to analysis, XMR has remained at $163 for the last hour, the triangular support line. The current price is above the support line and can rise to the $ 175 resistance line. Also, since the 100 SMA trend is lower than the 200 SMA trend, the support line is likely to collapse and the price is likely to be between $ 163 and $ 200. I expect a breakout from here.

[cAPSLOCK]

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

i WOULD ARGUE THAT bITMAIN HAS BEEN IN THIS GAME LONG ENOUGH TO (WELL SHIT CAPSLOCK AGAIN | IRONIC) know exactly how to sell without hurting the market and therefore their future earnings so I would doubt that they would dump. They create these for a living and sell the coins continuously I'm sure so I doubt they would dump out of spite and the fact that the market is absorbing these dumps just shows a lack of finesse, it looks more like a pissed little kid. My guess goes to Reptilla.

It just seems to me that these dumps have a very algorithmic quality and seem to be thought out.  Kinda strange.

Now I suppose if Bitmain has a large warchest it would be fairly Not in their self interest to crash the price.  Then again... there is evidence that company has done things in the past to harm the chain they mined.

I do wonder at times what has become of the Silver King...

[Hueristic]

...Then again... there is evidence that company has done things in the past to harm the chain they mined.

I do wonder at times what has become of the Silver King...

This I don't doubt, do you have any links? AFA the other, Idunno.

[Globb0]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

[mambamanagement]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

what ever happened with that guy?

[Quackadoodle]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

[jwinterm]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

Lol LA TLMES

[pa]

Interesting paper on Bitcoin economics. Since Monero follows a nearly-identical PoW structure the paper can be applied to Monero as well.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3142022

The paper attempts to analyze and even in some cases quantify some of the structure incorporated into this famous diagram:

The authors are doing an AMA right now: https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

[Sipizter]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

what ever happened with that guy?

Based on his Facebook update from January he is living in some kind of commune in Estonia.

[Anon136]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

what ever happened with that guy?

Based on his Facebook update from January he is living in some kind of commune in Estonia.

A commune where you dont communicate with the outside world anymore after you enter I think is called a cult.

He must really feel bad about his ponzi scheme. That's the thing about ponzi schemes. The people who create them usually often never intended to.

[dewdeded]

Vendor adoption rate is going pretty strong on the darkmarkets. Most serious vendors now accept Monero. That's great.
From my POV, this a major milestone. Because a number of our community members who have been focused on research and development in this space for nearly a decade began to doubt that would ever be possible.

[Whether you like Darknet trading or not.] This acceptance give's our project real world usage, hands-on operation experience in a critical environment, exposure (by media and researchers) and feedback from regular users.
This can be base, a solid starting point (which 99% of all boot strapped projects never reach) to expand the Monero ecosystem above the cryptocurrency-scene into the real world, in order to create an independent, healthy and durable Monero economy.

The XMR tech works, the community is strong, trustworthiness is established, now grey market usage illustrates that a growing number of independent people trading online recognize Monero as a (valuable) currency.
-> The demand for a token with Monero characteristics is real.


If we keep Monero fair and dezentralized, Monero will be the project & technology that finally allowed the creation of a completely anonymous egalitarian cryptocurrency, which empowers end-users with true privacy, both financial and personal.

[Hueristic]

Grabbed a little moah this week just now. Back to double digits again baby!

[Hueristic]

ETN will have a greater market cap than monero in time.

You better hope so or you'll have to get some JOB.

[Nathan047]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

So it's been confirmed then (not on a connection able to stream a YouTube video)?

[owlcatz]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

So it's been confirmed then (not on a connection able to stream a YouTube video)?

The url is wrong "latlmes", it's like rick roll or something, don't bother.

[smooth]

The authors are doing an AMA right now: https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)

[Hueristic]

The authors are doing an AMA right now: https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)

Thanks smooth, I like the fact they put out a layman's copy.

That paper got way out my league to comprehend pretty fast and what I did digest didn't seem to come to any conclusion that is not already obvious.
So what point is it trying to make that we don't already know?


I think something is wrong with Polo I just checked my buy trade analysis and got an exact even number! Whats the chance of that?!?!

Code:

 Average Buy Price: 0.00416829 BTC             Break Even Price: 0.00416829 BTC

[smooth]

The authors are doing an AMA right now: https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)

Thanks smooth, I like the fact they put out a layman's copy.

That paper got way out my league to comprehend pretty fast and what I did digest didn't seem to come to any conclusion that is not already obvious.
So what point is it trying to make that we don't already know?

There are some interesting perhaps non-intuitive conclusions. They mention some of them in the non-technical summary or AMA:

1. An increase in the cost of mining implies a reduction in the coin value. Some have claimed that mining cost or energy cost backs the value of a coin given its cost of creation (or similarly, the claim that botnets reduce the coin value since their cost of mining is lower), but this appears not only wrong, but backwards.

2. ASICs increase hash rate security (and therefore coin value) but may reduce it due to reduced miner decentralization, so the effect is ambiguous (and depends on the relevant, and generally unknown, constant factors). Of course, the Monero community is aware of the second consideration, given the recent decision to fork out ASICs, but the ambiguity may be under appreciated. Personally I find it quite troubling and would prefer a way to win on both sides rather than grapple with a potentially intractable tradeoff.

3. There are multiple equilibria in any coin, one being the coin price at zero (so no mining rewards, no security, no value., etc.) This may be obvious but we don't see it much. However, it appears to reinforce the notion that a coin can completely fail.

4. Non-linearity can produce price and hash rate spirals. If someone spikes the price (say Roger Ver buying into Monero in 2016) and the hash rate follows, this can improve perceived security and perceived value to the point where the new value is self-sustaining. Perhaps this can occur by hash rate increases as well (even potentially due to ASICs or botnets joining the network). I guess this can happen in the other direction too (possibly leading to complete failure, i.e. #3?)

5. There is an optimal inflation rate that is not zero. Some amount of inflation subsidizes mining which increases the hash rate and then coin value so it is therefore self-supporting. This has been alternately stated many times in the past as avoiding the free rider problem where holders who do not transaction still benefit from mining security. It is actually quite obvious to most people who understand economics but remains highly controversial among Bitcoiners.

Reminder: As with most if not all of economics, this is only an idealized model, and doesn't necessarily accurately represent reality. Lessons may be learned from it, and they may be valuable, but they risk being wrong if the model is wrong.