[XMR] Monero Speculation

[elrippos friend]

From a fib retracement perspective (regardless of how you look at it) - it looks bad. Falling through the volume point of control isn't a good sign either.



If the Week closes below the 0.236 "last line in the sand" retracement level, then I'd be expecting lower lows personally  

This being a speculation thread that sounds like a lovely buy the dip oppoertunity.


Anywhere here or bellow must be tempting in those bitcoins. OK its (BTC) on a run for now. But patience.


There will be an back flow, all those reds like that chart even look quite sus/but of course its not the price its the bitcoin value.

I also think it could be a great buy the dip opportunity, after all XMR is 40% down from recent highs, 80% from ATH. There's no doubt in my mind it's a great discount at these prices, given Monero's fundamental value that I believe is still as strong as ever before. My only concern is, if price doesn't bounce back from these levels, it could be in deep trouble.

I'm personally waiting for the Week to close, hoping for a wick to form at the bottom of the current candle (for confirmation of support) before considering averaging in any further. This price structure reminds me a bit of BAT/BTC, that also had a similar spike in price, but when it came to bouncing off the lows again, it broke through dropping another 30%.

I'm airing on the side of caution right now.

Wait until the first December week and place your orders near to 0,0060 

[dragonvslinux]

From a fib retracement perspective (regardless of how you look at it) - it looks bad. Falling through the volume point of control isn't a good sign either.



If the Week closes below the 0.236 "last line in the sand" retracement level, then I'd be expecting lower lows personally  

This being a speculation thread that sounds like a lovely buy the dip oppoertunity.


Anywhere here or bellow must be tempting in those bitcoins. OK its (BTC) on a run for now. But patience.


There will be an back flow, all those reds like that chart even look quite sus/but of course its not the price its the bitcoin value.

I also think it could be a great buy the dip opportunity, after all XMR is 40% down from recent highs, 80% from ATH. There's no doubt in my mind it's a great discount at these prices, given Monero's fundamental value that I believe is still as strong as ever before. My only concern is, if price doesn't bounce back from these levels, it could be in deep trouble.

I'm personally waiting for the Week to close, hoping for a wick to form at the bottom of the current candle (for confirmation of support) before considering averaging in any further. This price structure reminds me a bit of BAT/BTC, that also had a similar spike in price, but when it came to bouncing off the lows again, it broke through dropping another 30%.

I'm airing on the side of caution right now.

Wait until the first December week and place your orders near to 0,0060 

Why the first week of December you say? I'm curious...

[alaskabm]

In terms of xmr\usd price is holding well.

I'm just trying to understand what btc is going to do.

Do you guys think it will hold 17-18k, go for a correction to 11-13k or pass the 20k range towards 25k?

[elrippos friend]

From a fib retracement perspective (regardless of how you look at it) - it looks bad. Falling through the volume point of control isn't a good sign either.



If the Week closes below the 0.236 "last line in the sand" retracement level, then I'd be expecting lower lows personally  

This being a speculation thread that sounds like a lovely buy the dip oppoertunity.


Anywhere here or bellow must be tempting in those bitcoins. OK its (BTC) on a run for now. But patience.


There will be an back flow, all those reds like that chart even look quite sus/but of course its not the price its the bitcoin value.

I also think it could be a great buy the dip opportunity, after all XMR is 40% down from recent highs, 80% from ATH. There's no doubt in my mind it's a great discount at these prices, given Monero's fundamental value that I believe is still as strong as ever before. My only concern is, if price doesn't bounce back from these levels, it could be in deep trouble.

I'm personally waiting for the Week to close, hoping for a wick to form at the bottom of the current candle (for confirmation of support) before considering averaging in any further. This price structure reminds me a bit of BAT/BTC, that also had a similar spike in price, but when it came to bouncing off the lows again, it broke through dropping another 30%.

I'm airing on the side of caution right now.

Wait until the first December week and place your orders near to 0,0060 

Why the first week of December you say? I'm curious...

Simply because this is a pattern we already had in April and May 2016 and at the moment speaking the behaviour is exactly the same in my opinion 

[Krimster]

Yeah, low 0.06x seems reasonable, but in an active subject to such wild changes, I'd rather not take too many chances, I have entered at half load. If it does go down as elrippo predicts, I'll buy the other half. But I don't want to get excluded from the trip up just because a few whales decide to do something funny.

[explorer]

Yeah, low 0.06x seems reasonable, but in an active subject to such wild changes, I'd rather not take too many chances, I have entered at half load. If it does go down as elrippo predicts, I'll buy the other half. But I don't want to get excluded from the trip up just because a few whales decide to do something funny.

   0.006434 (binance) is officially low .006x already.  I bought with half of my allotted BTC in the .007's for the same reasons, but my margin account is still short    I guess now is not the time to go to work.  According to elrippos friend I will have to let a couple jobs float until December, just to be sure.  Working is a poor life choice anyway  

[Hueristic]

Yeah, low 0.06x seems reasonable, but in an active subject to such wild changes, I'd rather not take too many chances, I have entered at half load. If it does go down as elrippo predicts, I'll buy the other half. But I don't want to get excluded from the trip up just because a few whales decide to do something funny.

   0.006443 (binance) is officially low .006x already.  I bought with half of my allotted BTC in the .007's for the same reasons, but my margin account is still short    I guess now is not the time to go to work.  According to elrippos friend I will have to let a couple jobs float until December, just to be sure.  Working is a poor life choice anyway  

I was going to long at .0075 but was too lazy to figure out binance margin system.

Now I'm reconsidering learning it again.

[explorer]

Yeah, low 0.06x seems reasonable, but in an active subject to such wild changes, I'd rather not take too many chances, I have entered at half load. If it does go down as elrippo predicts, I'll buy the other half. But I don't want to get excluded from the trip up just because a few whales decide to do something funny.

   0.006443 (binance) is officially low .006x already.  I bought with half of my allotted BTC in the .007's for the same reasons, but my margin account is still short    I guess now is not the time to go to work.  According to elrippos friend I will have to let a couple jobs float until December, just to be sure.  Working is a poor life choice anyway  

I was going to long at .0075 but was too lazy to figure out binance margin system.

Now I'm reconsidering learning it again.

Yep.  When I close the short I'm flipping full margin long, and just ride out what's left of the dip, and see how long I can keep my fingers out of it for.  What fun it was to find some bits and pieces still on polo after my hiatus.

There's .006414...

[Globb0]

When to go long though? Margin is risky.

where do yo set the stop? a trailing one?

Whales have a way of messing you up with spikes.

[explorer]

When to go long though? Margin is risky.

where do yo set the stop? a trailing one?

Whales have a way of messing you up with spikes.

No stops.  Its how I roll.  Draw some lines, pick a number, add a bit for insurance, and take the BTC.  IMO long at any point down from here is good enough.  I know from experience that I won't catch the bottom with any weight, so very soon I will go long with about half, and add to it progressively (hopefully all on the way down, and not in a panic on the way up lol) Even it if takes a few months to get back to green, it is profitable, but I don't expect that to be the case.  The down side is vastly diminished at this point.  If I have to shore up my collateral as it dips to unthinkable levels, I will double down and profit more.  If it dies alltogether, and never comes back up, well the XMR I staked is worthless anyway, isn't it?  win-win, or lose-lose.

[Hueristic]

Yep.  When I close the short I'm flipping full margin long, and just ride out what's left of the dip, and see how long I can keep my fingers out of it for.  What fun it was to find some bits and pieces still on polo after my hiatus.

There's .006414...

I got a letter saying my funds on Polo were with the treasurers office in a state I don't reside in and it was only 66% of what I had there sold at the bottom converted to usdt. Thats one way I know they were orchestrating dumps when Goldmann Ballsacks owned Polo.

When to go long though? Margin is risky.

where do yo set the stop? a trailing one?

Whales have a way of messing you up with spikes.

I always make sure price can drop 40% before liquidation and have only been called once when there was fuckery going on during BTC fork.

[explorer]

   

   cAPSLOCK, any update on your USD:XMR chart? 

[elrippos friend]

Yeah, low 0.06x seems reasonable, but in an active subject to such wild changes, I'd rather not take too many chances, I have entered at half load. If it does go down as elrippo predicts, I'll buy the other half. But I don't want to get excluded from the trip up just because a few whales decide to do something funny.

   0.006434 (binance) is officially low .006x already.  I bought with half of my allotted BTC in the .007's for the same reasons, but my margin account is still short    I guess now is not the time to go to work.  According to elrippos friend I will have to let a couple jobs float until December, just to be sure.  Working is a poor life choice anyway  

In my world 0,0064x is mid 0,006x but fine for me to call it lowish 0,006x 

[elrippos friend]

Yeah, low 0.06x seems reasonable, but in an active subject to such wild changes, I'd rather not take too many chances, I have entered at half load. If it does go down as elrippo predicts, I'll buy the other half. But I don't want to get excluded from the trip up just because a few whales decide to do something funny.

   0.006443 (binance) is officially low .006x already.  I bought with half of my allotted BTC in the .007's for the same reasons, but my margin account is still short    I guess now is not the time to go to work.  According to elrippos friend I will have to let a couple jobs float until December, just to be sure.  Working is a poor life choice anyway  

I was going to long at .0075 but was too lazy to figure out binance margin system.

Now I'm reconsidering learning it again.

One is never too old to learn 

[elrippos friend]

Ps.: ... it smells like teen spirit fomo in here ...  

[cAPSLOCK]

 

   cAPSLOCK, any update on your USD:XMR chart?  

It's a mess really... I need to put a little work into revising some aspects... but just looking at the ranges I was interested about what a month+ ago we kind of see this:



Seems to me XMR is not really joining into the alts party which is often the case.  But that does not meant it won't show up fasionably late like it also does from time ti time.

[cAPSLOCK]

As to XMRBTC we do seem to have definitively bounced off the trendline... So the question is do we turn around?  Or do we breech it?

[explorer]

As to XMRBTC we do seem to have definitively bounced off the trendline... So the question is do we turn around?  Or do we breech it?

Looking pretty strong...

[Febo]

Looking pretty strong...

We need some good news. Maybe something like: Because of fake news that CiperTrace can trace Monero transactions, all fake volume exchanges in South Korea decided to list Monero again. Oh and that Arabic UAE exchange Bit Oasis or how was named. CiperTrace need to be more vocal so those people on other side of the word can hear them.



Also today on monero sub reddit someone was talking about stock to flow ratio and had some strange numbers so i went to calculating it and I got this.

Gold Stock to flow ratio for last year was 59.9 as this article says https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357409-golds-stock-to-flow-ratio-and-why-matters
Bitcoin stock to flow ratio of right now is 56,47
Monero stock to flow ratio of right now is 65.79
Monero>Gold>Bitcoin 65.79>59.9>56,47

Stock to flow ratio is only a pressure on supply side. You cant predict price with it. It is only one factor.

[phishead]

 Have no fear, AmericanPeagusus is back baby!

Start your engines