[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

Oh boy...

https://www.theregister.com/2021/04/21/quanta_confirms_ransomware/

This slow-drip tactic is designed to pressure victims (in this case Quanta, but also by extension Apple) to give into the attackers' demands. REvil has demanded 123,028 of the Monero cryptocurrency (£37m, $50m) to delete its stolen files and decrypt locked systems.

[1714990620]

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[1714990620]

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[mv1986]

Holy transactions, Batman!  Lookin' good.

Anyone logged into poloniex in the last couple days?  I can log in but not navigate the site...

Agreed.  And one cool thing to remember is the Monero transactions are ORGANIC.  There is no bullshit being loaded onto the blockchain. No silly extra data.  The blockchain is being used for exactly what it was DESIGNED to be used for, and the growth even on a LOG chart is impressive.  

Monero's transaction per day have been going up steadily now for TWO YEARS:


Monero's hashrate has been incresing strongly since the advent of RandomX:


Monero's Stock to flow model has Monero well under it's predicted current price (~1k) predicting 2x that by the end of the year (2k)


Metcalf's law, which predicts a price based on the number of transactions (compared to BTC) shows the price underpreforming the model by nearly 20x with over 6k being the model prediction, though it has been accurate in the past, including the past bull run.


We are going up gentlemen.  Nothing else makes any sense at all.

(Charts from https://bitinfocharts.com and https://moneroj.net )

Hey Capslock,

maybe you know more than me. I just saw you are discussing Monero. I myself rented Amazon instances back then and mined Monero. I was wondering, do you think it is 100% safe? Take into account a company like Chainalysis. Can they crack Monero?

Edit: I am not asking for tax evasion reasons, not at all!!

I am asking because I want to understand what's possible with crypto.

Cheers!

[cAPSLOCK]

Hey Capslock,

maybe you know more than me. I just saw you are discussing Monero. I myself rented Amazon instances back then and mined Monero. I was wondering, do you think it is 100% safe? Take into account a company like Chainalysis. Can they crack Monero?

Edit: I am not asking for tax evasion reasons, not at all!!

I am asking because I want to understand what's possible with crypto.

Cheers!

It's very common for us to discuss Monero in here.

And no, I do not think it would be IMPOSSIBLE to trace transactions.  But I think Monero offers the most battle tested privacy of any crypto asset, and to date any weaknesses found have been addressed.  There is a reason a group of hackers smart enough to steal the designs of Apple's next processors are asking for the ransom to be paid in Monero.  Also the extremely large bounty offered by the IRS implies the strength of it's privacy.

Until we see strong proof that Monero's privacy has fallen vulnerable to forensics, I would think it would be the safest crypto asset in that regard.  Just it's history may be the most valuable reason to use it.  In other words... so far, so good.

[Febo]

Agreed.  And one cool thing to remember is the Monero transactions are ORGANIC.  There is no bullshit being loaded onto the blockchain. No silly extra data.  The blockchain is being used for exactly what it was DESIGNED to be used for, and the growth even on a LOG chart is impressive. 

Monero's transaction per day have been going up steadily now for TWO YEARS:

Yup transactions are again making a leg up. 5 straight days with over 25k transactions a day and 9 in last two weeks. Hopefully after weekend, next week will be the same.  Beside last 2 weeks when we had 9 days with over 25k transactions a day in the past was only 8 such days.


There was 7.5k XMR sell wall on Binance at 0.0075. It stopped the price growth for a while.  3k left now. I dont think it will last for very long.

[tokeweed]

Oh look..  Romero doing Romero things.  All red, XMR green.  Some guy from Turkey must have lost his private keys in a boating accident.  *wink wink* *shove shove*

[Dinda mayasi]

I saw this coin in early 2016. Like other coins at that time also the price of BTC is still cheap, even BTC can still be purchased at the price of IDR 5 million. And monero when 2016 experienced a price increase at the end of the year. can be seen in the trading history above.

[mv1986]

Hey Capslock,

maybe you know more than me. I just saw you are discussing Monero. I myself rented Amazon instances back then and mined Monero. I was wondering, do you think it is 100% safe? Take into account a company like Chainalysis. Can they crack Monero?

Edit: I am not asking for tax evasion reasons, not at all!!

I am asking because I want to understand what's possible with crypto.

Cheers!

It's very common for us to discuss Monero in here.

And no, I do not think it would be IMPOSSIBLE to trace transactions.  But I think Monero offers the most battle tested privacy of any crypto asset, and to date any weaknesses found have been addressed.  There is a reason a group of hackers smart enough to steal the designs of Apple's next processors are asking for the ransom to be paid in Monero.  Also the extremely large bounty offered by the IRS implies the strength of it's privacy.

Until we see strong proof that Monero's privacy has fallen vulnerable to forensics, I would think it would be the safest crypto asset in that regard.  Just it's history may be the most valuable reason to use it.  In other words... so far, so good.

Hey Capslock,

just read about the hack. Interesting story. I am a bit surprised though that Monero isn't worth even more. I read the Coindesk article from January about privacy coins, there is a quite a lot going on. I wonder how effective the Taproot update will be, but if I understand correctly, Taproot does not offer full anonymity, does it?

[cAPSLOCK]

Hey Capslock,

maybe you know more than me. I just saw you are discussing Monero. I myself rented Amazon instances back then and mined Monero. I was wondering, do you think it is 100% safe? Take into account a company like Chainalysis. Can they crack Monero?

Edit: I am not asking for tax evasion reasons, not at all!!

I am asking because I want to understand what's possible with crypto.

Cheers!

It's very common for us to discuss Monero in here.

And no, I do not think it would be IMPOSSIBLE to trace transactions.  But I think Monero offers the most battle tested privacy of any crypto asset, and to date any weaknesses found have been addressed.  There is a reason a group of hackers smart enough to steal the designs of Apple's next processors are asking for the ransom to be paid in Monero.  Also the extremely large bounty offered by the IRS implies the strength of it's privacy.

Until we see strong proof that Monero's privacy has fallen vulnerable to forensics, I would think it would be the safest crypto asset in that regard.  Just it's history may be the most valuable reason to use it.  In other words... so far, so good.

Hey Capslock,

just read about the hack. Interesting story. I am a bit surprised though that Monero isn't worth even more. I read the Coindesk article from January about privacy coins, there is a quite a lot going on. I wonder how effective the Taproot update will be, but if I understand correctly, Taproot does not offer full anonymity, does it?

Most of us regulars here in this thread have felt this way for a while.   I honestly do not think it is inaccurate to say Monero could be (one of?) the most undervalued crypto asset (shitcoin?) in existence.  It is most certainly a contender for that spot.

Taproot will add an interesting privacy angle for Bitcoin, in that it will make it possible to do an array of transactions that cannot be identified as a particular type.  A multi-sig transaction will look the same to a forensics team as a "regular" transaction.  So it will add a great deal of valuable privacy for users.  But it does not even BEGIN to approach the privacy Monero offers.  You will be able to open a lighting channel and it not look like it, I guess... and then you get some decent privacy on that layer, but it does not change that Bitcoin is fundamentally a transparent ledger.

I believe Monero's future is also a very polarized set of possibilities for these reasons.  From an investment angle it will live or die on it's privacy.  That will be the reason it is successful, or that it fails.  So far it is succeeding.  But the response of world governments to it, the addition of useable privacy to Bitcoin, and the chance that Monero's privacy could be broken are the areas one must consider if looking at it as an investment.  I am betting Monero excels or survives in all three of those areas ultimately.

[Febo]

I am a bit surprised though that Monero isn't worth even more.

A lot of people talk about privacy. In crypto and in general and they do everything they could to not mention Monero. There are even conferences disusing privacy in cryptocurrencies organised where Monero is not mentioned. It s very funny. But maybe this is actually good. If everyone would talk about Monero now and would be worth $100k a coin then would have much more attackers. Ignoring Monero just buys time fro more development and for economy to mature.

[mv1986]

Hey Capslock,

maybe you know more than me. I just saw you are discussing Monero. I myself rented Amazon instances back then and mined Monero. I was wondering, do you think it is 100% safe? Take into account a company like Chainalysis. Can they crack Monero?

Edit: I am not asking for tax evasion reasons, not at all!!

I am asking because I want to understand what's possible with crypto.

Cheers!

It's very common for us to discuss Monero in here.

And no, I do not think it would be IMPOSSIBLE to trace transactions.  But I think Monero offers the most battle tested privacy of any crypto asset, and to date any weaknesses found have been addressed.  There is a reason a group of hackers smart enough to steal the designs of Apple's next processors are asking for the ransom to be paid in Monero.  Also the extremely large bounty offered by the IRS implies the strength of it's privacy.

Until we see strong proof that Monero's privacy has fallen vulnerable to forensics, I would think it would be the safest crypto asset in that regard.  Just it's history may be the most valuable reason to use it.  In other words... so far, so good.

Hey Capslock,

just read about the hack. Interesting story. I am a bit surprised though that Monero isn't worth even more. I read the Coindesk article from January about privacy coins, there is a quite a lot going on. I wonder how effective the Taproot update will be, but if I understand correctly, Taproot does not offer full anonymity, does it?

Most of us regulars here in this thread have felt this way for a while.   I honestly do not think it is inaccurate to say Monero could be (one of?) the most undervalued crypto asset (shitcoin?) in existence.  It is most certainly a contender for that spot.

Taproot will add an interesting privacy angle for Bitcoin, in that it will make it possible to do an array of transactions that cannot be identified as a particular type.  A multi-sig transaction will look the same to a forensics team as a "regular" transaction.  So it will add a great deal of valuable privacy for users.  But it does not even BEGIN to approach the privacy Monero offers.  You will be able to open a lighting channel and it not look like it, I guess... and then you get some decent privacy on that layer, but it does not change that Bitcoin is fundamentally a transparent ledger.

I believe Monero's future is also a very polarized set of possibilities for these reasons.  From an investment angle it will live or die on it's privacy.  That will be the reason it is successful, or that it fails.  So far it is succeeding.  But the response of world governments to it, the addition of useable privacy to Bitcoin, and the chance that Monero's privacy could be broken are the areas one must consider if looking at it as an investment.  I am betting Monero excels or survives in all three of those areas ultimately.

Very, very well said and I think those who have at least a tiny little bit of an idea do in fact know that it dies or succeeds on its privacy. I guess you are aware of the CIA and BND operation "Thesaurus"/"Rubikon". I find it unbelievable that other secret services weren't able to realize that there is a backdoor in the algorithm. What I ask myself now is: if a secret service cracks Monero's privacy feature, would we even notice? Would they even talk about it? Probably not.

We probably even must consider companies like Chainalysis who provide their service to secret services to invest considerable amounts of money to crack privacy coins.

Exciting times ahead, that's for sure!

[tokeweed]

^  But the project is open source.  I mean really if there were any backdoors and shenanigans, wouldn’t the community have seen it by now?

Anyway I could see XMR maintain its value a lot better than BTC and all the others after the bull market this time around.  With all the regulations coming in, I’m pretty sure a lot of people would be ‘losing their private keys’ in a boating accident. 

[Hueristic]

^  But the project is open source.  I mean really if there were any backdoors and shenanigans, wouldn’t the community have seen it by now?

[phishead]

^  But the project is open source.  I mean really if there were any backdoors and shenanigans, wouldn’t the community have seen it by now?

Primer.

[leea-1334]

In the long run, however Monero will see greater and greater use since it actually DOES the ONE THING it is designed to do, and does it EXTREMELY WELL.

Like you said though, I don't think people really do care. They may be forced to care one day,,, some day,,, whether that day comes soon it will be impossible to tell but for now, whizzy and shiny is what people care about and the markets also reward them for caring, so until privacy becomes something of a necessity (it is a necessity now but it is still only an alternative to most), we have to accept Monero is exactly where people care it is.

[mv1986]

^  But the project is open source.  I mean really if there were any backdoors and shenanigans, wouldn’t the community have seen it by now?

Anyway I could see XMR maintain its value a lot better than BTC and all the others after the bull market this time around.  With all the regulations coming in, I’m pretty sure a lot of people would be ‘losing their private keys’ in a boating accident. 

I don't know. If some developers know to hide something, no idea how easy it is to detect backdoors. Haha yes "the boating accident". It won't be simple for regulators to really achieve what they are planning for. If they crack down on it so harshly I am sure you are right that people will come up with pretty wild excuses.

XMR is greatly positioned to surge even in the short-term. It's the currency of the dark web already and it will gain more market share I believe for a lot of very good reasons. Magic money that disappears out of nothing is an awesome invention!

[cAPSLOCK]

I think the main issue with things like three letter agencies and back doors etc is to do with the cryptographic tools used in the network rather than the codebase.  In other words crypto assets rely on things like SHA2 and elliptic curves (asymmetric crypto privatives).  And the fear is someone(s) like the NSA might know a vulnerability in one of these privatives which has rendered it, for them, no longer asymmetric.  Meaning for the person with the "key to the cypher", so to speak, it will be easy to decode as well as encode which is something we rely on NOT being possible for things like Bitcoin to work at all.

Nearly everyone who really understands these things (not me, lol) seems to think this is a fairly remote chance.

[johnfoss]

The Monero Moon (Issue 15) is now available for your reading pleasure. Grab a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it approaches all time highs.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-15-96440ad06fb7

[oprahwindfury]

gauge the reception rate then it would just be the point on schedule at which selection and discharge bends cross. Almost certain Rpitila has every one of the numbers to do this in the event that he hasn't done so as of now. I would ballpark it at around Dec-Feb.

[infofront]

The Monero Moon (Issue 15) is now available for your reading pleasure. Grab a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it approaches all time highs.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-15-96440ad06fb7

Excellent as always - Thanks!

[Febo]

I wonder can it be better then it is right now.  Earlier today price reach $440 what was highest then ever in last 3 years. And at the same time number of transactions is hitting most transactions ever per day. Hopefully first day with over 30k.