[XMR] Monero Speculation

[tokeweed]

^  Yup.  Yuuuge progress.  Something tells me there's gonna be lots of movement in BTC in the coming years resulting in less BTC holders but nobody knows where the coins going.  Meanwhile localmonero type sites and other boot leg exchanges with no KYC are booming.  Do the math.

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[Febo]

Any thoughts on where we go from here?

Still expecting 1000usd +?

I give less than 1% that $1000 Monero will not happen this or next year. Even if next month China and USA ban Monero it will happen since that is only a bit more then double the price from right now. It would have to happen some catastrophic event that is not yet priced in.

So you see a high profile Monero ban as a springboard for the price?

I have not settled on this issue yet...  I could also see the price suffering quite a bit in the case this happens in the short term.

I dont think that should change Monero price much. Biggest holders of Monero already have that priced in. Some people will sell because of ban other people will buy because talk about BAN in media will for the first time present them what Monero is.

[johnalan]

Any thoughts on where we go from here?

Still expecting 1000usd +?

I give less than 1% that $1000 Monero will not happen this or next year. Even if next month China and USA ban Monero it will happen since that is only a bit more then double the price from right now. It would have to happen some catastrophic event that is not yet priced in.

So you see a high profile Monero ban as a springboard for the price?

I have not settled on this issue yet...  I could also see the price suffering quite a bit in the case this happens in the short term.

I dont think that should change Monero price much. Biggest holders of Monero already have that priced in. Some people will sell because of ban other people will buy because talk about BAN in media will for the first time present them what Monero is.

I think you're right, but 700usd this year sure is looking good now.

but might be delayed till next cycle with how weak the market looks right now.

[explorer]

Any thoughts on where we go from here?

Still expecting 1000usd +?

I give less than 1% that $1000 Monero will not happen this or next year. Even if next month China and USA ban Monero it will happen since that is only a bit more then double the price from right now. It would have to happen some catastrophic event that is not yet priced in.

So you see a high profile Monero ban as a springboard for the price?

I have not settled on this issue yet...  I could also see the price suffering quite a bit in the case this happens in the short term.

I dont think that should change Monero price much. Biggest holders of Monero already have that priced in. Some people will sell because of ban other people will buy because talk about BAN in media will for the first time present them what Monero is.

I think you're right, but 700usd this year sure is looking good now.

but might be delayed till next cycle with how weak the market looks right now.

Meh.  2X is an overnighter.

[shogun47]

Any thoughts on where we go from here?

Still expecting 1000usd +?

I give less than 1% that $1000 Monero will not happen this or next year. Even if next month China and USA ban Monero it will happen since that is only a bit more then double the price from right now. It would have to happen some catastrophic event that is not yet priced in.

In the past Monero had its own bull run a couple of times and was rather calm while the whole market was in a bull run. It could be the sleeping giant whose turn it is when the whole market cools down. If Monero then pumps the whole story would even make sense because that is what everybody expected now. That could turn into a real Monero bull run soon.   

[Hueristic]

https://youtu.be/QS9zeFFCq9c?t=514

 

[johnalan]

This is my view: https://i.imgur.com/aqFXLAW.png


This is just a shakeout.

I still think we will see 700usd this year.

[cAPSLOCK]

This is my view: https://i.imgur.com/aqFXLAW.png


This is just a shakeout.

I still think we will see 700usd this year.

You know... it all depends on big daddy corn.

Monero Twitter is getting giddy with flippening talk, lol. 

Fuckin noobs.  But I do have some respect for them.

[tokeweed]

^  Lol.  I had my ETH will flippen BTC phase once.  We all learn all the same.  Anyway, I guess that’s it for now?

And a good piece of advice I can give itt is to stay in the side lines for now.  A lot of dip buying will start now but how do we really know it’s all over?

[LUCKMCFLY]

Hi guys

I believe that XMR has not yet missed the opportunity those who did not buy in the fall, they have a very good option to enter and obtain a good profit in the market, I was observing the behavior of the currency and analyzing it by Wyckoff and I feel or think that it can go even higher if BTC starts to rise from $ 50k to $ 60k, I don't see it difficult, BTC is going for a 9% recovery, now I came across this analysis and I liked how the trader analyzed it, placing his price range for the purchase and for Take Profit:


Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRUSDT/9EqNS1xW-XMR-USDT-D1/

I think everything is very well explained, and you just need to enter the market and apply some of this analysis that I think is not bad at all.

[Globb0]

[explorer]

   

   Transaction volume 

Is that a glitch?

[Hueristic]

I hope no-one allowed themselfs to get shaken outta the trees.

We needed this.

[johnalan]

I hope no-one allowed themselfs to get shaken outta the trees.

We needed this.

My stack has never been larger.

I just wonder where this market is going.

This is prime time for XMR. Everything is aligned.

Features, community, applied crypto, etc.

I thought we’d be at 500 by now.

Still it will come. It just might take another couple of years.

[cAPSLOCK]

So, seriously gents... what's made this "liquidity crisis" happen?  It does not look like the demand is coming from transactional use (which is high and awesome, but not doing a spike) unless the exchanges have just been bled out.  So where is the Monero going? 

We can't do on chain analysis here, so it's way more speculation/Ouijia Board action for us.

*IF* the exchanges are running low, that means either/and/or:

-Large buyers are shipping Monero to cold wallets.
-Darknet vendors are not selling (and legit, lol but you know)
-Miners are not selling

What else can be doing it?  Just really wackadoodle things I can think of like a BIG exchange (Binance?) lost the keys to a big cold wallet?  Seriously.  Because if it's those three up there we are seeing a potential SLINGSHOT effect.  And it might just be starting.

But just to be a damn crybaby... why is it SO OFTEN that Monero has a super bullish setup right when the greater crypto space is melting down.  It always feels like bad luck to me... but maybe it's Monero style?  Even it's bull runs are obfuscated.

[Hueristic]

Still it will come. It just might take another couple of years.

Nah, we'll be laughing about this in a few months.



AFA Bad luck well I had moved a few coins to sell for the first time since 2017 and it started crashing right then so... yeah

[Febo]

Transaction volume  
Is that a glitch?

There was over 4k transactions in mempool yesterday. It took 3h to empty it. Reason was that after 2 days Binance opened withdrawals. This made yesterdays day as a new record day with 34218 Monero transactions. What showed us last few days is that Binance is new Poloniex. Monero ecosystem relays to much on Bianance, just as it did in 2014-2017 on Poloniex. Most of those "instant" exchanges gets Monero from Biannce, so when Biannce withdrawals go down, also they go down. Hopefully they learned something from yesterday and opened more channels to acquire Monero in the future.

[cAPSLOCK]

Transaction volume 
Is that a glitch?

There was over 4k transactions in mempool yesterday. It took 3h to empty it. Reason was that after 2 days Binance opened withdrawals. This made yesterdays day as a new record day with 34218 Monero transactions. What showed us last few days is that Binance is new Poloniex. Monero ecosystem relays to much on Bianance, just as it did in 2014-2017 on Poloniex. Most of those "instant" exchanges gets Monero from Biannce, so when Biannce withdrawals go down, also they go down. Hopefully they learned something from yesterday and opened more channels to acquire Monero in the future.

Since BTC is the main trading pair it will be interesting to see what sort of ecosystem grows up around the atomic swaps once they are in the wild.

I have not really looked into how these things are supposed to work, but I am hoping for a very robust, low friction sort of oracle/exchange/tracker system.  Does anyone know how this is being implemented?

For example... Bisq, for all it's glory as a very wonderful decentralized, trust minimized exchange is kind of a high friction tool.  The software is kinda klunky, and you have to dedicate yourself to learning to use it.  It is fairly high friction in my opinion.  Not meaning to be critical, since it is fairly amazing what they have done.

But the way that the onramp into atomic swaps is designed etc is very important.  It is it a very easy and robust way to move back and forth between XMR<=>BTC it is going to take the entire space by storm.

I would even think that having more than one approach (decentralized) might be good.

Anyway, does anyone know, yet, how this might work?

[cAPSLOCK]

One other thought... 

I assume atomic swaps are being built to operate on Bitcoin's base layer?  That seems an obvious first step... but I hope the developers are also looking towards interacting with other layers LND/Liquid/etc.

I feel bad pontificating on what "other people should be doing", but at the same time, I am not anything LIKE a developer. lol.  Yet I do have fairly good vision for why a system will be successful (Bitorrent) or used less that it's potential (Bisq).

Right now everything in bitcoin is friction.  The base layer is high friction because of fees.  Lightning is high friction because it's still beta, and the front ends are not great.  Liquid has friction because it is not used much yet.  Bisq is a great idea, but high friction.  just about NONE of this stuff is ready for prime time.

I always think of Matt Odell going on and on about what everyone should be doing when it comes to protecting your privacy in bitcoin.  And thediscussion is super interesting in an academic way, but basically a no hope situation when it comes to the vast majority of users... Even ODell himself cannot really live up to his own standards.

Again, this is why I think if Atomic Swaps work in a way that is as if Steve Jobs deigned the UX/UI then they are going to turn the entire world on it's head.  The governments will not be fast enough to stop it.  And Monero will shoot up to be a top 5 crypto asset overnight.  On the other hand if the system is more "Bisq like" then it will most certainly be useful for US, and for Matt, lol, but not our moms...  If that happens I am hoping the foundations are built in a way that the Steve Jobs of BTC<=>XMR can build his tool.

[Hueristic]

Shit cAPS  I was going to give a nice long reply (I don't put the effort in much anymore) and then the oven went off and the washing machine popped and I have to get stuff done in the yard before dark)!
Lol timing!

I'll get back to this later.

TLDW (too long didn't write)

Bisq going to liquid and any liquid involvement in AS is a bad thing.

Also when AS goes live we can bet all those blackilisted coins are going to get dumped on Monero holders.