[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[brg444]

I'm sorry, but you are wrong.
If bitcoin price is 10x higher than mining costs then a lot of new miners will emerge ... simply because they can make some profit.

Sure, but they ALWAYS lag behind.

Consider that some suggest it currently costs about 300$ or so to mine a coin at today's hash rate.

This means even with continuous exponential growth the miners are still far behind last year's ATH.

Why go for a suggestion? Just plug the numbers into any damn mining calculator.
E.g. a brand new Antminer S4 will break even after 5 months. Assuming you pay 5 c/kWh and the difficulty will NOT increase any further. Even assuming a mere 15% difficulty increase per month it will never break even (current 30 day average is 26%).
Either you can get something like a 50% discount of retail prices or you can forget turning a profit from mining currently.

What does this have to do with what I said though ?

[sgbett]

Just to max out on the hyperbole in my speculation, full moon is just 4 days away...

[An amorous cow-herder]

What does this have to do with what I said though ?

This means even with continuous exponential growth the miners are still far behind last year's ATH.

Actually they arent. Prices would have to be a lot closer to last ATH for mining to be profitable (at least for "normal" people buying devices).

[brg444]

What does this have to do with what I said though ?

This means even with continuous exponential growth the miners are still far behind last year's ATH.

Actually they arent. Prices would have to be a lot closer to last ATH for mining to be profitable (at least for "normal" people buying devices).

 

I'm sorry to say but it is no longer a "normal" people game.

The reason I stated the estimate of 300$ is that even at today's price, industrial mining rigs can still churn out profits.

That's all that matters. You argued that at 500,000$/coin the cost of mining would be "just" below. I demonstrated that it can and will be dramatically below.

[zimmah]

Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?

Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.

This is actually a really interesting point. I wonder then if the adoption curve is retarded by the block reward. I guess then any order of magnitude moves (such as i speculated) are some 10-20 years off.

Thats going to test some patience!

You have to consider miners getting more effienct very fast.

A miner that is delivered a fee months late is worthless on arrival(unless bitcoin value spiked during those months) that's how fast miners advance. This will continue to happen at least until miners catch up with the current line of semiconductor technology, which is 14nm I believe.

As long as ASIC chips are lagging behind on chip technology they will have a very rapid growth compared to moores law because catching up is easier than having to design new hardware from scratch.

Also you need to consider the limitations to the actual manufacturing. Miners can want more equipment all they want but if the miner manufacturers can't keep up with producing them, the miners can just wait forever.

There's only so much miners that can be produced in a certain timeframe so even if bitcoin value goed through the roof a couple of times, the energy consumption will not be requiring the output of three suns, because simply not that many miners can be produced that sudden.

[coinableS]

Just to max out on the hyperbole in my speculation, full moon is just 4 days away...

October 8th is a full moon, but you're referring to bitcoin going moon?

[sgbett]

Just to max out on the hyperbole in my speculation, full moon is just 4 days away...

October 8th is a full moon, but you're referring to bitcoin going moon?

Full moons make people crazy! There was some posts a while back about them coinciding with market events.

Right now I'll take anything

[thetruth123123]

Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA

[Amph]

Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA

my exact reaction, when they predict bitcoin to $2

[Wekkel]

Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH[...]

my exact reaction, when they predict bitcoin to $2

I'm sure someone will bid $42 million worth of BTC @ $2. No worries 

[wobber]

Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH[...]

my exact reaction, when they predict bitcoin to $2

I'm sure someone will bid $42 million worth of BTC @ $2. No worries 

If they buy even 3mil BTC that means 1/5 of the supply is controlled by a single entity. Wait for price to climb to 31, sell, profit huge.

[fewcoins]

Next spike $560,000 14 months from now
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH[...]

my exact reaction, when they predict bitcoin to $2

I'm sure someone will bid $42 million worth of BTC @ $2. No worries 

If they buy even 3mil BTC that means 1/5 of the supply is controlled by a single entity. Wait for price to climb to 31, sell, profit huge.

Actually if all you guys came together & decided not to let go of your coins for no less than $1,000 eventually the price would reflect that... If someone tries to buy a BTC but everywhere he turns everyone wants $1,000+ then everyone would suddenly not get rid of their coins for any less!!! Honestly, why even trade it for fiat?! That's when the value literally becomes PRICELESS

[sgbett]

Just to max out on the hyperbole in my speculation, full moon is just 4 days away...

October 8th is a full moon, but you're referring to bitcoin going moon?

Full moons make people crazy! There was some posts a while back about them coinciding with market events.

Right now I'll take anything

As other posters have recently pointed out, the 8th october full moon also comes with a blood moon eclipse. Visible over china!

Such coincidence!

[FUR11]

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

[sgbett]

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...



and the hypothetical cyclical market...



then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though

[fewcoins]

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...



and the hypothetical cyclical market...



then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though

What a waste of time... Bitcoin is not following a typical graph of markets but rather a flat line of greed!

[FUR11]

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...



and the hypothetical cyclical market...



then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though

Well, I applaud the effort, definitely! Hey, this is the speculation forum! I love a good speculation. But between all this TA and conservative approaches, this really looks completely foreign to me I fail to understand how this is supposed to forecast anything. And why do you see $300k as the final target price?

[heartastack]

Will everyone be dissapoint if we only see 56k/coin

[sgbett]

Holy mother freaking cow! That prediction is bold. I really don't get how this function is working, I mean how do you achieve such an erratic pattern? It looks unlike other bubbles in the past, if you ask me!

Its all the bubbles at once, you have the hypothetical adoption curve...



and the hypothetical cyclical market...



then you just play around with your original premises (how fast we cycle, how big the variance is during those cycles, what the adoption timescale is, what your final target is) to see what kind of potential outcomes emerge.

What you end up with is a chart that is a very rough fit to the kind of price action you can expect to see for any estimated final price you care to assume.

This particular chart was generate based on the assumed $300k final price that has been mentioned, and by the assumed $1m mega bubble prior to its final "death" at $300k and tweaking the parameters a bit so you got a bubble/sell of that roughly matched the 1280 ATH we just went through. In this model I made the 'cycle' magnitude rise and fall over the lifetime of the chart (a single oscillation of sin(0 to pi))

Its all total guess work though

Well, I applaud the effort, definitely! Hey, this is the speculation forum! I love a good speculation. But between all this TA and conservative approaches, this really looks completely foreign to me I fail to understand how this is supposed to forecast anything. And why do you see $300k as the final target price?

Because you have to pick a number and $1m seems so unlikely

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058

300k gives it a $6.3T market cap, which is a fair assumption if BTC becomes the new "money" of the world. (you could argue more!) if it stays niche then probably the end price is less - say the winklevosses 40k per coin (840bn market cap)

The thing is though all of that is focused on absolute prices, you are right this model doesn't forecast a price. It forecasts a behaviour. It prepares you for what a market  might look look if it had to get from A to B if adoption were to follow a typical s-curve adoption (with a fear/gread cycle modifier). Human brain isn't geared for exponential rises, particularly where money is concerned, particularly when bitcoin is currently still a tiny speck on the global economy. An economy which it could very well become a big part of.

This is an old but still relevant image:

[Odalv]

As adoption grows, every bubble will be smaller and bitcoin become more and more stable.

32->2 = 16x
260 -> 50  = 5x
1150 -> 275 = 4x

(maybe next 4,000 -> 1,300 = 3x )

If there will be bubble to $1,000,000 and then drop to $300,000 then it takes decades. (as with gold now)