Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

The illustration above cannot any longer be considered a triangle. the thrust has to be sharp. this is an early warning of potential bullishness.

[chessnut]

The form of the triangle on chinese exchanges is not ideal, which is why I abandoned it this morning. However, looking at bitstamp, this is actually an excellent triangle formation. The count on chinese exchanges may still be technically valid counting the last rally as a wave e. As long as this continues to lack any bullish flare I am expecting a sharp decline to begin within the next 48 hours taking us to around 1150 or $190.

[chessnut]

The triangle has broken to the upside. This means the medium term count is somewhat different, we will go up to at least 1460-1500 or so. here I will look for signs of a downward reversal as triangles are terminal. I expect the upside move to continue sharply in relation to the size of the triangle.

[chessnut]

This is the adjusted count, it is the same as DanV's.

Where the direction that a triangle may break is not always certain, the distance that it will go is far more reliable. This will likely reach around 240 quite quickly. Although we should go up here, long-medium term counts are all still bearish, affirmed by this triangle.

[sidhujag]

We are close to long term bottom i wouldnt sell here

[bigtimespaghetti]

Nice call chessnut.

[dannyspk]

Very accurate, Chessnut. We hit $238 on Bitfinex rather very quickly. Still bearish, huh?

[chessnut]

Very accurate, Chessnut. We hit $238 on Bitfinex rather very quickly. Still bearish, huh?

Not bearish since the moment it broke out upwards. see my last count.

I am still bearish longer term, this doesn't change anything.. I think we need to test lows one more time.

[RyNinDaCleM]

...Still bearish, huh?

There's a chance that we go to 360 to complete an even larger ABC off the 152 low. Still bearish? Absolutely!
Don't go getting out your moons and trains just yet!

[dannyspk]

...Still bearish, huh?

There's a chance that we go to 360 to complete an even larger ABC off the 152 low. Still bearish? Absolutely!
Don't go getting out your moons and trains just yet!

Yep. This doesn't seem like a moon moment yet, heh.

[Tzupy]

...Still bearish, huh?

There's a chance that we go to 360 to complete an even larger ABC off the 152 low. Still bearish? Absolutely!
Don't go getting out your moons and trains just yet!

A new push that reaches 360 - 370 would mean that THE bottom is behind us and the bear market is pretty much over.
This doesn't mean that we couldn't test lows close to that bottom after reaching 360, see November 2011.

[BitCoinNutJob]

Yeah we have no chance of dipping any time soon and the pokerstars rumor has helped fuel the fire. $300+ soon.

[RyNinDaCleM]

...Still bearish, huh?

There's a chance that we go to 360 to complete an even larger ABC off the 152 low. Still bearish? Absolutely!
Don't go getting out your moons and trains just yet!

A new push that reaches 360 - 370 would mean that THE bottom is behind us and the bear market is pretty much over.
This doesn't mean that we couldn't test lows close to that bottom after reaching 360, see November 2011.

While it would break the year long trend line, I don't fully agree that THE bottom necessarily MUST be in. A rise to 360 or so could be seen as a false break if it didn't consolidate above the trend line for too long.
As always, I keep my options open and will assess as it happens to make better judgement about it at that time. For right now, EW allows for this correction to extend there just like the B from May '13 and the IV from November which also broke (believed to be at the time) strong trend lines. Either way, it will test near the lows, as you said, even if it's a truncated final wave down.

[Spink]

What do you think about this, guys?

[HeliKopterBen]

In a buy low, sell high strategy, we are still low on a longer timeframe, IMHO.  

[RyNinDaCleM]

In a buy low, sell high strategy, we are still low on a longer timeframe, IMHO.  

Roughly 25% of where we were a year ago, but still close to 2000% of where we were a year before that. How long do you want to look at? 
But I agree that this is fairly low considering where we could be heading over the next year or two.

[RyNinDaCleM]

What do you think about this, guys?

That is a possible count. But I think this rise has one more© to complete an impulse up after this consolidation which should stay above or around 230.

[Spink]

That is a possible count. But I think this rise has one more© to complete an impulse up after this consolidation which should stay above or around 230.

Do you mean something like this?

[HeliKopterBen]

In a buy low, sell high strategy, we are still low on a longer timeframe, IMHO.  

Roughly 25% of where we were a year ago, but still close to 2000% of where we were a year before that. How long do you want to look at? 
But I agree that this is fairly low considering where we could be heading over the next year or two.

This is typical for bitcoin booms and busts going back to 2011.  We have seen at least 3 of them, although this one seems to be of larger degree.  Right now we are near the bottom of the bust range.  I think we should have at least on more increase of many multiples. 

[podyx]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.