Critical Levels - EW analysis

[felment]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

Chessnut thinks we will test the bottom again and he got it right this time.

............

I am still bearish longer term, this doesn't change anything.. I think we need to test lows one more time.

[chessnut]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

[elasticband]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

chessnut i do like reading your thoughts, but all I've taken from your last 10 or so posts is we are either going up or down. one minute we are going up, then you post a new graph with a trend line downward, then back to upward. bull or bear i cannot tell 

[L0uis]

^

Long & Short term predictions.

[dannyspk]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

[chessnut]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.

It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.

[dannyspk]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.

It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

[RyNinDaCleM]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.

It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

FOMO is the other side of panic. Both are extremely strong in this market. This market is heavily reactionary due to inexperience amongst traders. Whale moves price->traders follow (usually too late)->whale pushes back->sheep... You know. Eventually, we hit a point of exhaustion, and it cools off. But the overshooting is usually immense first.

[dannyspk]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.

It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

FOMO is the other side of panic. Both are extremely strong in this market. This market is heavily reactionary due to inexperience amongst traders. Whale moves price->traders follow (usually too late)->whale pushes back->sheep... You know. Eventually, we hit a point of exhaustion, and it cools off. But the overshooting is usually immense first.

Wouldn't it be fair to assume that Bitcoin also has now a minority of experienced traders? The crazy spikes must be really profitable for them.  What's your opinion on this overshooting, btw? Do you agree with chessnut's opinion on finding a bedrock at $100?

[RyNinDaCleM]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.

It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

FOMO is the other side of panic. Both are extremely strong in this market. This market is heavily reactionary due to inexperience amongst traders. Whale moves price->traders follow (usually too late)->whale pushes back->sheep... You know. Eventually, we hit a point of exhaustion, and it cools off. But the overshooting is usually immense first.

Wouldn't it be fair to assume that Bitcoin also has now a minority of experienced traders? The crazy spikes must be really profitable for them.  What's your opinion on this overshooting, btw? Do you agree with chessnut's opinion on finding a bedrock at $100?

It's pretty much always been the case, as is the case with all financial markets. 80% will lose so that 20% can win. The past bubbles definitely draw in a lot of market newbs with delusions of grandeur where they will either learn what they do wrong and fix it (yes, even if this means 1BTC always equals 1BTC, a variation of FOMO and as I said, FOMO is BIG in this market), or they lose their money and leave. A sort of Darwinism. It's a fact of all markets.

$100? I do believe it's possible. and even lower too. I won't put a guarantee that we'll get there, but I definitely do not discount it either. I also do not think the bottom is in. Now, if we end this bear market with a truncated 5th or a failed C (meaning it fails make a lower low below the previous low) then yes, THE bottom (lowest low) is in, but the bear market lives on, imo. Until weakness in the movement presents itself during the final pushes, I expect a lower low. If I see weakness and all other requirements are fulfilled, I can confidently call the Bear market, Dead. I have not seen such things yet, so I don't envision moons or trains or rockets... It's just not my thing.

[chessnut]

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

I do not wish to post 1-5m charts here any more, just hourly and above. Look at previous charts I have posted, they are still relevant. I think here is approximately the top, I am very confident we will be capped by 1680. Any 1m-5m charts calling the top are really not tradable unless you can react to changes like I can, in which case you would have a better idea yourself anyway.

[bassclef]

From a non EW perspective there is little chance we will see sub $100. I think this is where EW analysis falls down honestly, as if looking at arbitrary (albeit possible) market patterns will explain what the largest and most influential traders are doing in this market, because it does not.

I look at things from a supply and demand perspective. The market makers have been accumulating this whole time and once they are ready (and attempts to shake out the market further have failed), mark the price up. It is cheaper to do once there is little to no selling left and they know this. They essentially have cornered the market and have absorbed all floating supply from the weak hands. The logical next step is to initiate a bull market to better their wallets.

So if efforts to mark down the price below $200 have failed (too expensive), what would cause them to dump down to $100? Even they can't fight the demand below $210, and they certainly are not in the business of losing money. Trading against the market is a really good way to go broke, so they won't do it.

[chessnut]

From a non EW perspective there is little chance we will see sub $100. I think this is where EW analysis falls down honestly, as if looking at arbitrary (albeit possible) market patterns will explain what the largest and most influential traders are doing in this market, because it does not.

The charts reflect the forces acting upon them. There may be large players accumulating bitcoin, but large money wise investors still have trust issues depositing large sums of money into exchanges, and their demand will not be expressed on the main exchanges. By your logic, $150 should never have happened. Would you really be surprised by a brief spike down to $100?

Its not a matter of certainty, but all factors remaining the same, I expect it in principle.

[lebing]

From a non EW perspective there is little chance we will see sub $100. I think this is where EW analysis falls down honestly, as if looking at arbitrary (albeit possible) market patterns will explain what the largest and most influential traders are doing in this market, because it does not.

The charts reflect the forces acting upon them. There may be large players accumulating bitcoin, but large money wise investors still have trust issues depositing large sums of money into exchanges, and their demand will not be expressed on the main exchanges. By your logic, $150 should never have happened. Would you really be surprised by a brief spike down to $100?

Its not a matter of certainty, but all factors remaining the same, I expect it in principle.

Coinbase now makes that problem obsolete

[dannyspk]

You guys think we'll make a short term top around $260?

I was thinking that many people seem to be eager to pick up at sub 200 so if we make new lows, I feel like it should be shortlived and it'll be obvious that it is a bottom. But bottoms are rarely easy to tell which is why I think that we may not see new lows.

A short term top may already be in place but a move towards 260 is not unlikely. After some consolidation between here and 1400 yuan we might take another leg up higher towards 1800, but it is equally likely at this point that we will begin the last greater leg towards new lows to conclude the bear market around $100.

That was pretty close at $258. In your last count, you calculated the distance of breakout from its preceding triangle. Does it land between $255-260? Don't you think once we enter sub 220s again from here, it would be very likely to head downwards?

Yes, I think if we pass 220 we will be on our way to new yearly lows. we could consolidate above that possibly before another leg up also, but I prefer the bearish take.

It seems like this impulse in over, we have clearly had a fifth wave erupt from a iv wave triangle on the smaller time frames which concludes two degrees of impulse. we will likely head down to 240 from here.

We didn't. 1680 CNY seems to be very close to be broken from here. What's your take now?

[chessnut]

We didn't. 1680 CNY seems to be very close to be broken from here. What's your take now?

bearish. this is just the beginning of a multi day correction.

[chessnut]

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

I do not wish to post 1-5m charts here any more, just hourly and above. Look at previous charts I have posted, they are still relevant. I think here is approximately the top, I am very confident we will be capped by 1680. Any 1m-5m charts calling the top are really not tradable unless you can react to changes like I can, in which case you would have a better idea yourself anyway.

I love the theory, it works great, but I cant help feeling lucky every time this happens.

[podyx]

Can you please post a chart with your counts if you don't mind? Also, almost 20% in 2 days.. this alone is a very bearish signal.

I do not wish to post 1-5m charts here any more, just hourly and above. Look at previous charts I have posted, they are still relevant. I think here is approximately the top, I am very confident we will be capped by 1680. Any 1m-5m charts calling the top are really not tradable unless you can react to changes like I can, in which case you would have a better idea yourself anyway.

I love the theory, it works great, but I cant help feeling lucky every time this happens.

How low you think we'll go? Do you think we'll go sub $220 and proceed to head down to 100? Or do you think we go something like 267-242-280 and then down?

[chessnut]

How low you think we'll go? Do you think we'll go sub $220 and proceed to head down to 100? Or do you think we go something like 267-242-280 and then down?

too early to tell m8. if this is the beginning of the next grand wave down, then I think we may go as low as $150-$70. It might take days before we can consider if this is a continuation or consolidation.

[sgbett]

How low you think we'll go? Do you think we'll go sub $220 and proceed to head down to 100? Or do you think we go something like 267-242-280 and then down?

too early to tell m8. if this is the beginning of the next grand wave down, then I think we may go as low as $150-$70. It might take days before we can consider if this is a continuation or consolidation.

Serious question, but what price point would you consider your current wave count invalid and reassess it?

I think a move to mid $100's is possibly (imho unlikely) but wouldn't that be a terrifying capitulation point for all those - like me - that think the bear market may finally be over!?