Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[fcmatt]

No sign yet of the tens of thousands of new Mt. Gox depositors lined up to buy ...

In fairness, gox only verifies about 1,000 per day.

And there's still a lot of people waiting to see which way the price goes before they make a decision. I think it's going to take big individual buyers or sellers to push it either way.

and that is how we got to the peak in the first place.
big buyer(s) get us to the next level, the lemmings jump on board. rinse and repeat.

then the big buyer(s) all decided to get out with some early adopters.

lemmings left holding the bag as always.

i do not think they are ready to do this again anytime soon. they need to let time go by.

[hannesnaude]

No sign yet of the tens of thousands of new Mt. Gox depositors lined up to buy ...

It may take a few weeks for any new MtGox user to actually be able to get funds into MtGox to start buying. 

Yep, co-worker signed up with gox on friday. Was number 25,XXX on the queue. Now down to 20XXX. It will be a while. The fiat arriving now was sent before the crash and the owners of said fiat took their place in the queue well before the crash. It will be interesting to what they do. I suspect most of us are playing wait-and-see.

I've been looking at downloads of the satoshi client as a proxy for new interest in bitcoin after the crash. The sourceforge page automatically starts aggregating downloads into weekly or montly buckets as one increases the time over which the downloads are tracked however, so I used the API to get at the raw data and created my own graph in matlab. This shows the number of downloads per day since the beginning of the year. The red line indicates Wednesday the 10th of April.



The number of downloads peaked on the 10th with the second highest volume day being the day after. Something the  complicates interpretation of  this  graph is the fact that there is a weekly oscillation (with a peak on wednesdays and a trough on sundays) overlaid on the underlying trend. To show the underlying pattern more clearly, I sorted the data into seperate bins for each weekday and graphed them as separate graphs.



On this graph it is clear that interest in bitcoin appears to grow unabated. The past sunday had the highest download volume of any sunday this year exceeding the previous peak by more than 20%. Similarly for saturday, friday and thursday. The google trends data for "buy bitcoin", "buy bitcoins" and mtgox tell very much the same story, but unfortunately no API is available to get at the raw data.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoin%22%2C%20%22buy%20bitcoins%22%2C%20mtgox&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

[ElectricMucus]

Over 1 million BTC sold over the past week. Price is holding in the $90-$100 range.

Bullllllllish.

I can't wait till the 80-90 range is considered bullish by you guys. 

[warpio]

Over 1 million BTC sold over the past week. Price is holding in the $90-$100 range.

Bullllllllish.

I can't wait till the 80-90 range is considered bullish by you guys. 

I'm not bearish until we break below $50, to be honest. In fact I've got quite a lot of bids on the way down to $51 lol. If it does break below $50, then I'm holding onto the rest of my fiat and waiting for single digits.

[y2kcamaross]

Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.

[ElectricMucus]

Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox. Most will wait with selling till they can withdraw so their funds aren't locked.

[humanitee]

Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox.

Doubt it.

~BTC170k sold yesterday, on a SUNDAY.

[DougTanner]

Over 1 million BTC sold over the past week. Price is holding in the $90-$100 range.

Bullllllllish.

I can't wait till the 80-90 range is considered bullish by you guys. 

I'm not bearish until we break below $50, to be honest. In fact I've got quite a lot of bids on the way down to $51 lol. If it does break below $50, then I'm holding onto the rest of my fiat and waiting for single digits.

I'm doing much the same thing. Hoping for a recovery (lots of bullish signals still abound), but acknowledging that after a bubble bursting there could be a long slow decline.

[Richy_T]

I feel walls are typically used to push the price in the opposite direction. Say the price is 100 and I want to buy some coins below that. I can put a nice big wall at ask 100.5 and then people coming in see the wall and thing that they won't be able to sell their coins if they put them behind the wall so they put them just in front, maybe 99.5 or whatever. Then I can snap up those coins at 99.5 and wait for the next punter to come along. If I am patient, I can get a lot more coins for my money than if I just bought since otherwise my buys would push the price up. As soon as my wall starts being eaten, I close it down or move it back, I absolutely am not intending to sell those coins at that price. This works in both directions.

I actually played with this a little back when bitcoin-24 was working. Managed to push the coins I wanted to sell up a whole $5 because every time I would raise the price on the ones I put up on the buy side, someone would jump in just a little bit higher. It's not without risk though.

Bottom line, do not trust the walls to mean much. They will evaporate in a heartbeat.

[bixcoin]

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox.

And I am one of them. Waiting for my first (this month's first) SEPA withdrawal for one week now. This used to go a lot faster. Anybody experiencing the same?

[el_rlee]

Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.

source?

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox.

And I am one of them. Waiting for my first (this month's first) SEPA withdrawal for one week now. This used to go a lot faster. Anybody experiencing the same?

me. having two transactions, one confirmed on the 8th one on the 10th, neither hit my account so far

[blueberry]

Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox. Most will wait with selling till they can withdraw so their funds aren't locked.

No. Most people wanting to get out would have already sold their coins. Why would they risk waiting a week or two to be verified first if they think the price will drop further?

And I am one of them. Waiting for my first (this month's first) SEPA withdrawal for one week now. This used to go a lot faster. Anybody experiencing the same?

So you already sold your coins?

[ElectricMucus]

Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox. Most will wait with selling till they can withdraw so their funds aren't locked.

No. Most people wanting to get out would have already sold their coins. Why would they risk waiting a week or two to be verified first if they think the price will drop further?

Think about it: You are sitting on 10x-50x profits from the rally, missed the top and want some cash. Mtgox is having issues.

Your options are:
Sell now and withdraw asap. Some are doing just that (price is creeping down slowly) But that means you can't get anything as long as you aren't verified.
Wait till you are verified and sell then.
You can if all fails withdraw you coins and sell them somewhere else. But still gox offers the highest prices so people think it is worth waiting. Added to this other exchanges lack liquidity.

[zarl]

Lots of people want their fiat out of gox.

And I am one of them. Waiting for my first (this month's first) SEPA withdrawal for one week now. This used to go a lot faster. Anybody experiencing the same?

I am one of them too
How to choose SEPA transfer ? I not see any place to choose this in the options.
Is this automaticly chosen when tranfer EUR Bank tranfer ?

[el_rlee]

I am verified, and Gox does not offer the highest prices

[ElectricMucus]

I am verified, and Gox does not offer the highest prices

Highest prices with enough liquidity.

[deeplink]

Think about it: You are sitting on 10x-50x profits from the rally, missed the top and want some cash. Mtgox is having issues.

Your options are:
Sell now and withdraw asap. Some are doing just that (price is creeping down slowly) But that means you can't get anything as long as you aren't verified.
Wait till you are verified and sell then.
You can if all fails withdraw you coins and sell them somewhere else. But still gox offers the highest prices so people think it is worth waiting. Added to this other exchanges lack liquidity.

A rational trader would maybe do it like you described in the second option, but I think you give the panic sellers too much credit here. imo most have sold first, then started thinking about how to get the money out.

[bixcoin]

No. Most people wanting to get out would have already sold their coins. Why would they risk waiting a week or two to be verified first if they think the price will drop further?

agree

So you already sold your coins?

Yes. I sold at a very good time, but unfortunately I have to pay for that by part of my fiat being frozen/vanished on bitcoin-24. Still I made withdrawals of about 250% my original investment via mtgox and getting a little nervous since it's taking too long.  I already lost about 1000BC in funny Bitcoin "Investments" or "Exchanges". This experience however shows me how I only think of really posessing something of real value, once this money hits my good old bank account. And thus, makes me believe 100$ per BC is still too much.
Anyway, I still have enough fiat on gox to fool around and maybe buy in again when I think it makes sense.

[ManBearPig]

Same old noises with nothing but a gut feeling to back them up.

Zzz...

FFS bearish, bullish this ain't a football game. Just trade it as you see it and stop being so partisan.

[Richy_T]

Same old noises with nothing but a gut feeling to back them up.

Zzz...

FFS bearish, bullish this ain't a football game. Just trade it as you see it and stop being so partisan.

+1. It's one thing to have an opinion about how things will go but it's another to try and defend it as the unassailable truth. This isn't the climate change debate.