ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[JimiQ84]

In the meantime, their savings wallet keeps growing http://blockchain.info/address/1HgTJED7XEGy4vVwKa8kgefWqUB3VRX2mW

I'm pretty sure that's a shareholder's dividend address. If you divide the payout every week with that week's dividend, it's always a round number.

than how do you explain this transaction?

http://blockchain.info/tx/ba3f92c3e9fe1aba37c47e7a2f10ca55ac1498911706693c6c1cc9a18560ca55

It's sending money BACK to div's payout address

[reedlaw]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

[SebastianJu]

The interesting possible counter to all this is that Friedcat and the Board should consider the following:

- Change dividend policy to monthly (or even quarterly)
- Change update policy to the same frequency

The reality is that since AM is a privately-controlled company with a minority listed on exchanges and it is not seeking to raise money since it's very profitable, it has no reason to be wasting it's time dealing with the absurd frequency of updates and dividends demanded in the Bitcoin World. That way it could officially just concentrate on running the business.

As I've said before, I'm involved in a few big private companies as a Director, Investor or both. Not one of them provides either a shareholder update or a dividend more frequently than quarterly.

What do you think what amount of time the div payment will take? I think it will be pretty low time. Friedcat calculates the income, checks what he should keep back for investment, calculate the earnings through the shares, insert those numbers in a script and click send. Thats it. I think its a good idea to check the income weekly and i dont think that a reasonable amount of time can be save to do this 1 time instead 4.3 times a month.

No updates are not very good but that will take a bigger amount of time. Probably there isnt much to tell at the moment.

[Vycid]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

[JimiQ84]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

[Vycid]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Profit margins cannot exceed 100%.

Please learn what you are talking about.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profitmargin.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_margin

[binaryFate]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. At least that's something we can be sure about.

[deadgiveaway]

What's asicminer's plan to stay competitive?

[Vycid]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. At least that's something we can be sure about.

Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).

The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.

This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.

Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.

[velacreations]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

[freedomno1]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.

[tinus42]

So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. At least that's something we can be sure about.

Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).

The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.

This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.

Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.

You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL.

I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.

[Vycid]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL.

I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

[velacreations]

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

yeah, cause I believe they are selling the USBs for more than $50/GH

[Franktank]

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

You cannot say it's a rough estimate than claim it to be "math" and "logic" later. Until you have all the financial sheets backing up your math, it remains as "a rough estimate". I would suggest taking a look at CoinTerra's thread before saying they're "better off buying CoinTerra's hardware."

[Kouye]

ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share.

I agree 100%.
And I'm willing to let you get off this adventure on a positive note.
I'll take all your shares for 0.6BTC each.
And let you brag about how you fucked me, later.

Deal?

[Vycid]

ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share.

I agree 100%.
And I'm willing to let you get off this adventure on a positive note.
I'll take all your shares for 0.6BTC each.
And let you brag about how you fucked me, later.

Deal?

I obviously don't own any shares of AM, tard. I own puts because I maintain a short position.

Also, don't take quotes out of context like that. That's a seriously jackass move.

[Vycid]

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

You cannot say it's a rough estimate than claim it to be "math" and "logic" later. Until you have all the financial sheets backing up your math, it remains as "a rough estimate". I would suggest taking a look at CoinTerra's thread before saying they're "better off buying CoinTerra's hardware."

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

[Franktank]

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

[Vycid]

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.

Agreed. $1.50/GH is - as I said - a rough value. My valuation is not really dependent on that value being accurate, since I use general values for the profit margin instead of precise costs per gigahash (which will change for Gen 2 anyway).

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

No - you're right. The jury IS still out, there are no promises. But there are a lot of positive indications for Cointerra (certainly enough to overlook some novice marketing), and a 90% level of certainty would mean that the expectation of competition should be 90% priced into the stock price, right? That hasn't been realized, as far as I can tell.