ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Jutarul]

USD$200 million is some serious fiat cashola.  I'd be interested in AM's thoughts about the news of the Avalon investment, and meeting that challenge.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323997004578644491403250124.html

If confirmed, that indicates that they want to close the technology gap to current state of art IT. It hardly makes any sense to invest this amount of capital at the current market price of bitcoin - unless they also accumulate large quantities of bitcoin and they want to keep the price suppressed. Buying hardware is like buying future bitcoins.

The more interesting aspect would be if they really intent to invest 200 million or if they just value Avalon at 200 million in exchange for e.g. 5 million in investment and equity. ASICMINER currently has a valuation of about 160 million.

[stripykitteh]

USD$200 million is some serious fiat cashola.  I'd be interested in AM's thoughts about the news of the Avalon investment, and meeting that challenge.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323997004578644491403250124.html

Given that the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $1-$1.5 billion I think pumping $200 million into a chip designer only makes sense if you think the value of Bitcoin is truly about to skyrocket and you think Avalon will end up being top-dog in chips forever and a day. I mean, it sounds like a hell of a risk. You'd only be doing this expecting to get a 10-bagger or more, and if the price doesn't move you won't get much of a return even if you become 50% of the market (which they wouldn't even try).

Or are they moving in a different direction than mining?

[gog1]

I thought this thing is fake and just some rehash of old stories that never materialize (see people's comment on the ActiveMining thread).

[freedomno1]

AM Kick his arse 

[Vycid]

USD$200 million is some serious fiat cashola.  I'd be interested in AM's thoughts about the news of the Avalon investment, and meeting that challenge.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323997004578644491403250124.html

Given that the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $1-$1.5 billion I think pumping $200 million into a chip designer only makes sense if you think the value of Bitcoin is truly about to skyrocket and you think Avalon will end up being top-dog in chips forever and a day. I mean, it sounds like a hell of a risk. You'd only be doing this expecting to get a 10-bagger or more, and if the price doesn't move you won't get much of a return even if you become 50% of the market (which they wouldn't even try).

Or are they moving in a different direction than mining?

It's not impossible that Joe Lewis wants $200M worth of bitcoins but realizes he cannot simply buy that many without blowing up the price. Someone has already been privately buying up all of Avalon's bitcoins, so it fits.

It's genius, really: trying to buy $200M of coins directly would spike the price before you actually gained ownership of the assets, so you'd get stuck buying in at a high price. Instead, they're going to keep all of the coins they're mining, which indirectly raises the price on assets they essentially have already paid for - those coins aren't being released into the wild like they would by a company like AM, so Joe Lewis is relieving the inflationary pressure of mining, which will manifest as an increase in value on his newly minted coins.

Anyone who says "well, he can't pull that off, he can't exceed 30-40% of the hashrate without destroying trust in BTC!" need only look at AM's own plans (leasing hardware for BTC, etc) to understand how it is possible to generate in excess of $200M worth of BTC over a couple of years.

As far as I am concerned, this is the vindication of my bearish sentiment on AM. If this story gets confirmed - and I rate the odds of that at far higher than zero, since this is published in the Wall Street Journal - AM stock is set to absolutely crater. The insane notion that AM will continue to return ~25% APR indefinitely is getting a reality check.

[velacreations]

the dividend is setting up to be good this week:  http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

.02 so far.

[SmiGueL]

the dividend is setting up to be good this week:  http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

.02 so far.

1/3 of that is because of the hardware sales.

_{(Est. 0.014 on mining + 0.007 on HW sales until now.)}

Average hashrate is indeed pretty nice at the moment.

[velacreations]

Hashrate is indeed pretty nice at the moment

does this mean blade issues might be sorted out?

[talnted]

the dividend is setting up to be good this week:  http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

.02 so far.

1/3 of that is because of the hardware sales.

_{(Est. 0.014 on mining + 0.007 on HW sales until now.)}

Average hashrate is indeed pretty nice at the moment.

Hashing is looking excellent

[adameb]

Doesn't seem to be posted here yet, but in response to the $200M rumor - bogus:
https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC/statuses/364370798892421120

[velacreations]

As far as I am concerned, this is the vindication of my bearish sentiment on AM. If this story gets confirmed - and I rate the odds of that at far higher than zero, since this is published in the Wall Street Journal - AM stock is set to absolutely crater. The insane notion that AM will continue to return ~25% APR indefinitely is getting a reality check.

Since the story turned out to be bogus, does this mean that AM stock is going to skyrocket?

[Franktank]

Since the story turned out to be bogus, does this mean that AM stock is going to skyrocket?

Yes.

[VolanicEruptor]

Sorry, I know that it seems like hindsight, but I believe a lot of people had zero ability to process logic when they determined this story was real.  When a baby shits their diaper, I would even suggest stepping right back to take a look, rather than becoming directly involved.   Let someone else get messy.

Take a step back next time and look at it.  Ask yourself, "$200 million?  Why the fuck.."
It works..

[velacreations]

Sorry, I know that it seems like hindsight, but I believe a lot of people had zero ability to process logic when they determined this story was real.  When a baby shits their diaper, I would even suggest stepping right back to take a look, rather than becoming directly involved.   Let someone else get messy.

Take a step back next time and look at it.  Ask yourself, "$200 million?  Why the fuck.."
It works..

is that chocolate or poop?
* licks finger
oh, thank goodness, it's chocolate!

[velacreations]

Since the story turned out to be bogus, does this mean that AM stock is going to skyrocket?

Yes.

that's great news, now I can go back to bed...

[Lohoris]

Sorry, I know that it seems like hindsight, but I believe a lot of people had zero ability to process logic when they determined this story was real.  When a baby shits their diaper, I would even suggest stepping right back to take a look, rather than becoming directly involved.   Let someone else get messy.

Take a step back next time and look at it.  Ask yourself, "$200 million?  Why the fuck.."
It works..

this post contains win.

btw that's also called "the giggle test". Problem is it implies – OMG! – thinking.

[lucasjkr]

It's genius, really: trying to buy $200M of coins directly would spike the price before you actually gained ownership of the assets, so you'd get stuck buying in at a high price. Instead, they're going to keep all of the coins they're mining, which indirectly raises the price on assets they essentially have already paid for - those coins aren't being released into the wild like they would by a company like AM, so Joe Lewis is relieving the inflationary pressure of mining, which will manifest as an increase in value on his newly minted coins.

So, Joe mines coins via Avalon and puts those in a private wallet somewhere. And even though the rest of the Bitcoin community sees those coins getting mined and knows exactly where they are, it "relieves the inflationary pressure", which I take to mean that the value of the rest of the BTCs out there go up? I don't see how or why - we will all know that those coins exist and are available to be circulated at any time, so you can't price the remaining BTC's as is they're off the market (ie destroyed).

[Vycid]

It's genius, really: trying to buy $200M of coins directly would spike the price before you actually gained ownership of the assets, so you'd get stuck buying in at a high price. Instead, they're going to keep all of the coins they're mining, which indirectly raises the price on assets they essentially have already paid for - those coins aren't being released into the wild like they would by a company like AM, so Joe Lewis is relieving the inflationary pressure of mining, which will manifest as an increase in value on his newly minted coins.

So, Joe mines coins via Avalon and puts those in a private wallet somewhere. And even though the rest of the Bitcoin community sees those coins getting mined and knows exactly where they are, it "relieves the inflationary pressure", which I take to mean that the value of the rest of the BTCs out there go up? I don't see how or why - we will all know that those coins exist and are available to be circulated at any time, so you can't price the remaining BTC's as is they're off the market (ie destroyed).

Inflation isn't some magical thing that happens because everyone looks around at how many Bitcoins there are. It's a supply/demand problem. If more people are looking to sell (or use) Bitcoins than are willing to buy (or accept) them at their current price level, the price level of BTC necessarily decreases (and the price level of everything else necessarily increases relative to BTC).

Normally you have miners selling their mined BTC to cover fiat costs: hardware, rent, electricity, etc. That is supply-side pressure, or inflationary pressure, which would be relieved if someone like Joe was bankrolling the whole thing in order to get coins in the first place.

He's not, though (unless he's lying to preserve his interests), so the point is moot.

[Vycid]

As far as I am concerned, this is the vindication of my bearish sentiment on AM. If this story gets confirmed - and I rate the odds of that at far higher than zero, since this is published in the Wall Street Journal - AM stock is set to absolutely crater. The insane notion that AM will continue to return ~25% APR indefinitely is getting a reality check.

Since the story turned out to be bogus, does this mean that AM stock is going to skyrocket?

Well, it will certainly recover whatever loss it suffered on the basis of concern that article might have been real (which seems to have been marginal). "Skyrocket" isn't appropriate, since it didn't crash in the first place.

[gog1]

I believe that article is already proven to be a hoax.