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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914547 times)
nubbins
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August 24, 2013, 01:08:40 AM
 #11701

I am dumb and understand nothing of this technical talk, with hashrates and whatever.

But I have 20 BTC invested in AM and am wondering why is value dropping so hard. I am now at half a BTC profit and will probably go in the negative soon. And this shit came at a time I REALLY needed to cash my profit out.  Embarrassed Someone care to ELI5 ?  Undecided

Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins. Beware scammers.
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The Bitcoin network protocol was designed to be extremely flexible. It can be used to create timed transactions, escrow transactions, multi-signature transactions, etc. The current features of the client only hint at what will be possible in the future.
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freedomno1
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August 24, 2013, 01:21:25 AM
 #11702

I am dumb and understand nothing of this technical talk, with hashrates and whatever.

But I have 20 BTC invested in AM and am wondering why is value dropping so hard. I am now at half a BTC profit and will probably go in the negative soon. And this shit came at a time I REALLY needed to cash my profit out.  Embarrassed Someone care to ELI5 ?  Undecided
Pretty much what everyone said above

The percentage of the network held by AM is lower than before due to difficulty spikes, some competition is here and more may be coming online soon.

Friedcat is producing more units resulting in lower dividends right now and for the last while causing the share price to decrease.
Furthermore an unknown amount of AM's units are being leased and we don't know how much of that is in the network, the market is waiting on generation two of AM miners and whatever capacity the possible competitors contribute to mining to determine the market value.

Measuring the factors:

Variable factors are in play whoever brings the largest scale to the market the quickest has the potential to take over some % of the network, but in the long run AM is in the best position to maintain its share with proven mining and increasing capacity based on their track record.

That said potential companies like Labcoin and Activemining BTCgarden and a few others (Avalon) are saying they will be releasing units soon.
It will take time yet for the competitors to prove themselves to produce at large scales before the true status quo changes, but it is an interesting time since the clock draws nearer. Even if they all produce a bit it could become a lot overall etc.

In the short run as in why it dropped so hard recently:

Eb had a bit of a panic thinking that there was bad news and possibly read some of the chat here, put up an auction for a lot of shares 3700+ at 2.7 and the market reeled before the auction was cancelled pretty fast seeing as there was a lot of pent up demand at that price, bringing AM down to a lower stable point for the last few days.

Think that was about it.

If that seemed bullish sorry not as bearish as others can be  Wink

Did AM just hit an all-time high for hash rate?



Anyone know how to contact the site creator?  It would be more useful to show some longer terms.  i.e. if ASICMiner has 50 TH/s deployed how much effective hashing power does it have (including downtime, lost connectivity, orphans, etc).  Something like changing the chart to 6 hours, 24 hours, 7 days would be more useful.

Feel free to use my site -- you can report on whatever timeframe you want:

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,4,8,12

Just change the querystring to reflect the timeframe (in hours) that you'd like. You can use as many (or few) samples as you want. The sample timeframe(s) should be separated by commas, as shown in the example above.

Here's some more interesting timeframes to monitor:

Hourly for 24 hours: http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24

Weekly 24 hour samples: http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=24,48,72,96,120,144,168

1 hour average: http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1

The data goes back to something like June 11th.

More data Smiley
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August 24, 2013, 06:03:39 AM
 #11703

is ghash.io the bitfury hardware test pool before delivering to customers ? or is it that 100TH project farm ? I'm confused.
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August 24, 2013, 11:04:18 AM
 #11704


- Hash-share of AM has fallen massively.

- Too many firms chasing fewer coins that require far more effort and expense to mine.

- Hardware sales are falling since the value of these is directly linked to mining profitability which is falling. Most devices bought by consumers will never re-coup investment costs.

- No proven ability to generate significant transaction fees, since fee are still small and have not grown in a year.

I said all this when AM hit 5BTC, I sold and got mocked for talking it down, now it's back down to the 2.5-ish thats it's actually worth. AM have always done great stuff, but some people got carried away with the current dividends and drove the price too high.
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the forkings will continue until morale improves


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August 24, 2013, 11:51:25 AM
 #11705

is ghash.io the bitfury hardware test pool before delivering to customers ? or is it that 100TH project farm ? I'm confused.

it's not 100TH so probably bitfury.

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August 24, 2013, 02:14:17 PM
 #11706


- Hash-share of AM has fallen massively.

This is currently the biggest issue, IMO.  It shows there are issues being worked out with the mining operation.  Whatever those issues are, I hope they get it worked out soon, otherwise dividends will suffer again this week.

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August 24, 2013, 02:17:45 PM
 #11707


- Hash-share of AM has fallen massively.

This is currently the biggest issue, IMO.  It shows there are issues being worked out with the mining operation.  Whatever those issues are, I hope they get it worked out soon, otherwise dividends will suffer again this week.

I believe that the current withholding of dividend payments is going to continue for a while and that also explains some of the selling. 

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August 24, 2013, 02:20:23 PM
 #11708

We see 2.7 again. But this time it seems no one is excited by this low price again. Bad sign?
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August 24, 2013, 02:27:13 PM
 #11709

We see 2.7 again. But this time it seems no one is excited by this low price again. Bad sign?

I'm just sitting here with my Coinbase account and trying to talk myself out of buying more.  I really don't think anything's changed.  We had a whale dumping, dividends being withheld for a good reason, the new leasing business is still in the works, we know that friedcat can manufacture and deploy massive THS, we trust him to try to do so. 

I'm just thinking 2.5 is a possibility and trying to decide what to do... I suspect EB or another whale is dumping, somebody who bought a lot at that last long-term price static point, 2.5.

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August 24, 2013, 02:41:37 PM
 #11710

AM has had several peaks well over 90 th/s.

Currently, they are hashing at about 53 th/s over the past 24 hours.

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,4,8,12
AM probably hasn't had any peaks over 90 TH/s. What we are looking at are estimates.

If you look at my site http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/ (which is the chart Smiguel uses on http://asicminercharts.com/, but for the entire period AM has been hashing), you can see that the 24-hour estimate varies considerably. This is not (in all likelihood) the AM hashrate going up and down continously. It's caused by having to guess a hashrate using only around 15 data points per 24 hours.
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August 24, 2013, 03:07:27 PM
 #11711

Chain of bad luck or outage?

don't let me make you question your assumptions
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August 24, 2013, 03:22:14 PM
 #11712

What is the bottom price, any idea ?
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August 24, 2013, 03:23:52 PM
 #11713

What is the bottom price, any idea ?

I just bought at 2.55 but I suspect it'll go lower (just not willing to bet on it), probably bounce around 2.35 or so.  I don't have any analysis (although I did spend an afternoon writing a fetcher for BTCT trade data).  It was at that 2.5 level for a month, so I suspect it'll hold or bounce a little below there.  

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canth
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August 24, 2013, 03:24:17 PM
 #11714

What is the bottom price, any idea ?

What board members are willing to sell at.

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August 24, 2013, 03:39:41 PM
 #11715

Did AM just hit an all-time high for hash rate?





Seems more like all-time lowest Sad ... another sell of going on 2.5 on BTCT
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August 24, 2013, 03:46:03 PM
 #11716

This is low price is just stupid.






 
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August 24, 2013, 03:49:26 PM
 #11717

This is low price is just stupid.
 

 love it.. I'm slowly creepin back in.  There was no way I was going to buy at 3.50


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August 24, 2013, 03:54:25 PM
 #11718

I can't believe that people selling at this price.


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August 24, 2013, 03:56:23 PM
 #11719

I suspect EB or another whale is dumping, somebody who bought a lot at that last long-term price static point, 2.5.

I'm not selling anything. But I expect the price to keep going down, down, down, down.

Anyone selling right now has computed out the risks that the price is going to go down and that dividend payments are going down, and that the asset is going to have trouble competing. We're pretty much back at IPO right now: friedcat's assembly line, capital investments and new technology have to puncture a very competitive environment and we can only hope they are ready to do so.

But I went through one IPO with friedcat, I think I can go through another. Cheesy

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." John von Neumann
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August 24, 2013, 04:03:07 PM
 #11720

I can't believe that people selling at this price.




Why would THIS be stupid ? Gone are the times AM could do 20-30% of network without effort. They will need to invest heavily to obtain at least 10% which will cut into dividends. This is pretty logical to me ...
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