ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[spartan82]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

[empoweoqwj]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

[Mabsark]

- As soon as his bullshit math is disproven, he returns with some new bullshit math to "prove" that asicminer will fail and ultimately waste our time.

None of you disproved anything. None of you even tried. You just started calling me a troll and telling people to put me on their ignore list. What exactly was that meant to disprove?

Face it, my argument was blatantly obvious and your arguments were quite clearly ridiculous. Shareholders were simply too blinded by greed to see the truth of that at the time. You are making the same mistake all over again.

Like I said then, no one knows when.  You didn't know then, and you don't know now.  Saying a share price will fall isn't enough to make money.  It's the ability to know when it will fall.

Of course I knew that competition would arise. To think that competition would not arise was simply pure delusion. To think that the competition would not reduce AM's profits was simply bad maths.

Look at when you were saying AM was overvalued, the price and profits increased significantly after your prediction.  You were advising to not invest in AM when you could have doubled your money. You were off by several months, which meant significant profits earned by a lot of us during that time frame. 

I wasn't off by months at all. I said AM wasn't worth the asking price and that by the end of year, you would realise that. So what if the price temporarily increased and you could have made money speculating? That's completely irrelevant. I'm talking about what the shares were worth. Are you claiming that AM was actually worth 5 BTC per share? AM has paid out around 0.6 BTC per share in divs and that was with it's massive network share and sales monopoly. Such profits will not be seen again. Anyone who bought at 5 BTC, clearly got ripped off.

Anyone can go and check those comments for themselves and they'll see how intellectually dishonest you are being. By refusing to admit you were wrong, you just make yourself look silly.

[velacreations]

None of you disproved anything. None of you even tried.

No one needs to.  Time does it for us.

So what if the price temporarily increased and you could have made money speculating? That's completely irrelevant. I'm talking about what the shares were worth.

after your comments, shares price nearly doubled.  call it speculative investing, but doubling your value is still doubling your value.  And you were recommending people to sell.  It was several months after your comments that values dropped back to the level they were when you made those comments.  That was a lot of missed profits.

By refusing to admit you were wrong, you just make yourself look silly.

acting like you were right when you missed one of the greatest stock rises in BTC history makes you look silly.  Insisting that your math makes you right when it has been wrong at least 3 major times this year makes you look silly, too.

[Lohoris]

Could you just stop feeding the trolls, please?

Thank you.

[empoweoqwj]

Could you just stop feeding the trolls, please?

Thank you.

Agreed. I've got the troll on ignore but I still get to read his nonsense. Not funny.

[BitThink]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

[chriswilmer]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

[Mabsark]

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

AM has paid out about 0.6 BTC in divs and that was basically without competition for most of the time. This time around is not going to be as profitable.

So, show us the maths which leads you to think that AM is not currently overpriced.

[empoweoqwj]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

[BitThink]

these share prices... wow! i should have bought more last month

Yeah .... I though they would remain stable around 0.30 but I guess once a bit of buying started, the panic buying followed right after ...... let's see how it plays out now

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

I agree with you way to calculate the value of the stock, but I don't think AM has any chance to generate dividends of 0.6 BTC in the future. Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future. Considering there're only 9M bitcois left, it means AM has to get more than 2.6% of the rest BTC. As a mining dominated company, that almost means AM has to keep 2.6% of the network hashing rate all the time (costs have been completely ignored here), not matter how fast the whole network hashing rate increases.

You may say, there're other revenue besides the mining/selling chips/franchising, such as immerse cooling. Those revenues, however, are in fiats and considering the appreciation of BTC in the future, revenue in fiats can be safely ignored in my opinion.

Finally, even AM achieves the objective, what's the point to spend 0.6 BTC and wait for the 0.6 BTC be returned in dividend in the following years?

[BitThink]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

Speculation is about the price of the stock, and we are talking about the value of this stock. That's completely different.

For example, by speculation, now may be a good chance to buy AM shares cause someone may keep pumping the price until the tape-out result is out and you could earn considerable BTC by join the pump and dump. When we consider the value of the AM share, however, the current price is already above its value in my opinion and we should not consider it a good investment any more.

[jimmothy]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

Speculation is about the price of the stock, and we are talking about the value of this stock. That's completely different.

For example, by speculation, now may be a good chance to buy AM shares cause someone may keep pumping the price until the tape-out result is out and you could earn considerable BTC by join the pump and dump. When we consider the value of the AM share, however, the current price is already above its value in my opinion and we should not consider it a good investment any more.

Thanks for your opinion.

I find it easy to believe am will be able to pump out another 0.6 or more in dividends in the future.

[Lohoris]

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

Obviously wrong: what happens during the next two months directly affects the future dividends, so it's far from irrelevant.

[Lohoris]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

[BitThink]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

Speculation is about the price of the stock, and we are talking about the value of this stock. That's completely different.

For example, by speculation, now may be a good chance to buy AM shares cause someone may keep pumping the price until the tape-out result is out and you could earn considerable BTC by join the pump and dump. When we consider the value of the AM share, however, the current price is already above its value in my opinion and we should not consider it a good investment any more.

Thanks for your opinion.

I find it easy to believe am will be able to pump out another 0.6 or more in dividends in the future.

Yes, it is possible but before buying the share I have already 0.6 BTC in my hand and I don't need to believe anything. Therefore, if I buy AM shares now, either I know someone will pump it to higher price in short time, or I believe the long term dividend will be way above 0.6 BTC. Frankly, I think the possibility of the former is much larger than the latter, so I think most people buying now are based on speculation rather than investment.

I agree with empoweoqwj that this thread is not the best place to speculate the price of AM in near future. I just warn those who want to invest (not speculate) on AM that now may be not the best time due to the pumping.

[BitThink]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

Yes, most buyers are too optimistic in buying hardware but we cannot expect them never do calculation before buying. More and more buyers have learnt the lessons and becomes more realistic in calculating mining income. Therefore, AM can earn more than what their chips can mine, but not too much. If they are lucky, they may even double the BTC by selling due to the over-optimism of buyers , but it is still proportional to the number of BTC left (as long as tx fees can be ignored). Moreover, I've ignored the cost in my computing and AM will not ignore them in dividend distributing.

[Nullrisk]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

Yes, most buyers are too optimistic in buying hardware but we cannot expect them never do calculation before buying. More and more buyers have learnt the lessons and becomes more realistic in calculating mining income. Therefore, AM can earn more than what their chips can mine, but not too much. If they are lucky, they may even double the BTC by selling due to the over-optimism of buyers , but it is still proportional to the number of BTC left (as long as tx fees can be ignored). Moreover, I've ignored the cost in my computing and AM will not ignore them in dividend distributing.

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

[BitThink]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

Yes, most buyers are too optimistic in buying hardware but we cannot expect them never do calculation before buying. More and more buyers have learnt the lessons and becomes more realistic in calculating mining income. Therefore, AM can earn more than what their chips can mine, but not too much. If they are lucky, they may even double the BTC by selling due to the over-optimism of buyers , but it is still proportional to the number of BTC left (as long as tx fees can be ignored). Moreover, I've ignored the cost in my computing and AM will not ignore them in dividend distributing.

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

Yes, I agree with the two group of buyers you mentioned, but I don't think they will pay the device not proportional to the potential gain. They may pay twice or even more as the future mining income but not constant price (in btc) no matter how much btc remain.

For your last paragraph, I never said the mining industry is not profitable at current difficulty levels and ROI in fiat does not matter in my previous analysis at all. I was trying to prove the future dividend of AM may not be way above 0.6 BTC. However, it does not exclude the possibility that in the future, 0.0001 BTC (maybe equal to $1K that time) per week as dividend is a huge reward. Nonetheless, I can enjoy the same benefit by holding my 0.6 BTC.

[Lohoris]

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

I somewhat agree with the above paragraph, but the following one seems just wrong: since you pay the device in BTC, you have to consider only the BTC itself: exchange rate with other currency is totally irrelevant, since you had anyway the option of "just keeping your BTC" and having them appreciate exactly the same.

I'm quite tired of having to explain this time and again, it's so obvious but people keep getting it wrong. Will they ever learn?