ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Lohoris]

I think some people just try to pump and dump, taking advantage of the out-coming tape-out. Even the tape-out is successful (most likely someone has already got some insider news about the progress), the current price is still way over-priced in my opinion.

No it isn't. The value of a stock is based on all future dividends, discounted by risk and some penalty for future returns being worth less than money today.

What is going on in the next two months for asicminer is totally irrelevant.

Obviously wrong: what happens during the next two months directly affects the future dividends, so it's far from irrelevant.

[Lohoris]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

[BitThink]

Just a reminder, there is an ASICMINER speculation thread specifically for all the share price chat stuff .....

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0

Then we don't have to listen here to people bickering about whether shares are over-valued

Speculation is about the price of the stock, and we are talking about the value of this stock. That's completely different.

For example, by speculation, now may be a good chance to buy AM shares cause someone may keep pumping the price until the tape-out result is out and you could earn considerable BTC by join the pump and dump. When we consider the value of the AM share, however, the current price is already above its value in my opinion and we should not consider it a good investment any more.

Thanks for your opinion.

I find it easy to believe am will be able to pump out another 0.6 or more in dividends in the future.

Yes, it is possible but before buying the share I have already 0.6 BTC in my hand and I don't need to believe anything. Therefore, if I buy AM shares now, either I know someone will pump it to higher price in short time, or I believe the long term dividend will be way above 0.6 BTC. Frankly, I think the possibility of the former is much larger than the latter, so I think most people buying now are based on speculation rather than investment.

I agree with empoweoqwj that this thread is not the best place to speculate the price of AM in near future. I just warn those who want to invest (not speculate) on AM that now may be not the best time due to the pumping.

[BitThink]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

Yes, most buyers are too optimistic in buying hardware but we cannot expect them never do calculation before buying. More and more buyers have learnt the lessons and becomes more realistic in calculating mining income. Therefore, AM can earn more than what their chips can mine, but not too much. If they are lucky, they may even double the BTC by selling due to the over-optimism of buyers , but it is still proportional to the number of BTC left (as long as tx fees can be ignored). Moreover, I've ignored the cost in my computing and AM will not ignore them in dividend distributing.

[Nullrisk]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

Yes, most buyers are too optimistic in buying hardware but we cannot expect them never do calculation before buying. More and more buyers have learnt the lessons and becomes more realistic in calculating mining income. Therefore, AM can earn more than what their chips can mine, but not too much. If they are lucky, they may even double the BTC by selling due to the over-optimism of buyers , but it is still proportional to the number of BTC left (as long as tx fees can be ignored). Moreover, I've ignored the cost in my computing and AM will not ignore them in dividend distributing.

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

[BitThink]

Another 0.6 BTC means AM has to generate more than 240K BTC in the future.

This looks like a fallacy to me.
It would be true if AM's only gains would be from mining, but they will come from selling to other users instead, so there's no hard limit on how can they earn.

Of course the users would be mining themselves with their chips, and your post would imply they won't break even... well, yes, might be true. Still, they might buy anyway, like they did so far so often.

Yes, most buyers are too optimistic in buying hardware but we cannot expect them never do calculation before buying. More and more buyers have learnt the lessons and becomes more realistic in calculating mining income. Therefore, AM can earn more than what their chips can mine, but not too much. If they are lucky, they may even double the BTC by selling due to the over-optimism of buyers , but it is still proportional to the number of BTC left (as long as tx fees can be ignored). Moreover, I've ignored the cost in my computing and AM will not ignore them in dividend distributing.

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

Yes, I agree with the two group of buyers you mentioned, but I don't think they will pay the device not proportional to the potential gain. They may pay twice or even more as the future mining income but not constant price (in btc) no matter how much btc remain.

For your last paragraph, I never said the mining industry is not profitable at current difficulty levels and ROI in fiat does not matter in my previous analysis at all. I was trying to prove the future dividend of AM may not be way above 0.6 BTC. However, it does not exclude the possibility that in the future, 0.0001 BTC (maybe equal to $1K that time) per week as dividend is a huge reward. Nonetheless, I can enjoy the same benefit by holding my 0.6 BTC.

[Lohoris]

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

I somewhat agree with the above paragraph, but the following one seems just wrong: since you pay the device in BTC, you have to consider only the BTC itself: exchange rate with other currency is totally irrelevant, since you had anyway the option of "just keeping your BTC" and having them appreciate exactly the same.

I'm quite tired of having to explain this time and again, it's so obvious but people keep getting it wrong. Will they ever learn?

[Mausini]

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

I somewhat agree with the above paragraph, but the following one seems just wrong: since you pay the device in BTC, you have to consider only the BTC itself: exchange rate with other currency is totally irrelevant, since you had anyway the option of "just keeping your BTC" and having them appreciate exactly the same.

I'm quite tired of having to explain this time and again, it's so obvious but people keep getting it wrong. Will they ever learn?

You are wrong. Your pretentious attitude sucks.

[reactor]

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.

I somewhat agree with the above paragraph, but the following one seems just wrong: since you pay the device in BTC, you have to consider only the BTC itself: exchange rate with other currency is totally irrelevant, since you had anyway the option of "just keeping your BTC" and having them appreciate exactly the same.

I'm quite tired of having to explain this time and again, it's so obvious but people keep getting it wrong. Will they ever learn?

You are wrong. Your pretentious attitude sucks.

Can we just stop this pointless argument?  

Any device paid for in BTC that won't return the original payment price in BTC is not worth purchasing.  This is most devices on the market now, if not all.  This is the "buy and hold" argument.  (Not considering the aftermarket resale of hardware, also known as passing the potato to the next sucker.) Anything paid for in fiat should look to the ultimate return value in fiat, regardless of BTC market fluctuations.  This also depends/relies on selling off the mined crypto to return said fiat.  Saying "I hold 5BTC for a device I paid $5000 for" is somewhat meaningless because you've input $5000 and output nothing.  If BTC crashes to $200 before you can cash out, you've spent $5000 to get back $1000.  Or saying you took out a bank loan and got a crap ton of BTC at $1100, now you've got a crap-ton of bytes on speculative currency and cannot make loan payments because you lack fiat.  

Why we're still arguing about this, especially outside the speculation thread, blows my mind.  Believe in utopia where holding BTC while you are paying so much for mining hardware that you can't pay your rent/mortgage makes you some crypto uber-god if that suits you or be realistic and understand the dynamics between fiat and a speculative currency and how the ultimate need for fiat overpowers the "holding power" of a crypto, but stop trying to convince other people that one way is the true way.  

We're all in this to profit, be it through life experience or dollars, now let's push this thread back towards relevant AM information and move the bickering elsewhere.  I'd like to be able to check this thread every couple of days, as a shareholder, to find relevant information on AM.  Not return to the same bullshit bickering about share prices vs. dividends vs. speculative portions of the network.  

[chriswilmer]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

[stslimited]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

lol, you don't know what you are talking about...... cute

[klondike_bar]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

if i understand you correctly, you have no clue how bitcoin mining works. IT DOES PLATEAU (ish) as the total number of coins in existence approaches 21M.

[Jutarul]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

if i understand you correctly, you have no clue how bitcoin mining works. IT DOES PLATEAU (ish) as the total number of coins in existence approaches 21M.

I think he meant for the rate to plateau, which means a slower convergence of the inflation rate and a higher subsidy for mining.

Subsidy for mining only encourages infrastructure building. It is conceivable that the mining infrastructure has equilibrated within the next 6 years, thus the subsidy is not necessary and the free market rule (transaction fees) can take over.

[chriswilmer]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

lol, you don't know what you are talking about...... cute

The transaction fees per block will likely increase with time (today it is approximately 0.3 btc per block) so that the total mining reward per block (fees + new coins) may never go below some value, which I am guessing to be between 5 and 10 btc per block.

From a miner's perspective that means that there are unlimited bitcoins to mine in the future so long as bitcoin is a useful widely adopted currency.

[hdbuck]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

lol, you don't know what you are talking about...... cute

The transaction fees per block will likely increase with time (today it is approximately 0.3 btc per block) so that the total mining reward per block (fees + new coins) may never go below some value, which I am guessing to be between 5 and 10 btc per block.

From a miner's perspective that means that there are unlimited bitcoins to mine in the future so long as bitcoin is a useful widely adopted currency.

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

[chriswilmer]

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

lol, you don't know what you are talking about...... cute

The transaction fees per block will likely increase with time (today it is approximately 0.3 btc per block) so that the total mining reward per block (fees + new coins) may never go below some value, which I am guessing to be between 5 and 10 btc per block.

From a miner's perspective that means that there are unlimited bitcoins to mine in the future so long as bitcoin is a useful widely adopted currency.

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

The important point is that, when valuing AM, the 9 million number is not relevant. Steady state mining revenue is.

[donut]

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

No, there's only about 9M BTC of FRESH BTC to be mined. There's infinite BTC available to mine through transaction feees.

[chriswilmer]

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

No, there's only about 9M BTC of FRESH BTC to be mined. There's infinite BTC available to mine through transaction feees.

+1

[hdbuck]

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

No, there's only about 9M BTC of FRESH BTC to be mined. There's infinite BTC available to mine through transaction feees.

+1

well i know that thank you, but i referred to 'mining' as to the purpose of getting 'new' coins. thats all.

[donut]

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

No, there's only about 9M BTC of FRESH BTC to be mined. There's infinite BTC available to mine through transaction feees.

+1

well i know that thank you, but i referred to 'mining' as to the purpose of getting 'new' coins. thats all.

And we're referring to mining for the purpose of ASICMiner income.