ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Elokane]

Again, it seems to be that even with the most optimistic outcome, a share price of 0.6 is almost as high as it can get.

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[jimmothy]

Those were posted 1.5 months ago.

Share price spiked after the announcement(s)

One thing to note is 200 shares were dumped due to a hacker a few weeks ago and then lophie just bohght 100 or so shares from havelock a few days ago.

Havelock does not have enough volume for these high volume trades.

Anyways 0.6 is a steal for these shares if gen3 meets simulated specs.

Thanks for the heads up.

By what calculation is it a steal?

5% apr with gen1 chips should give you a hint.

If we expect 30% apr then asicminer needs about 10% network hashrate (or equivalent from sales) to justify 1btc/share.

10% is currently about 3ph which will be about what I predict the entire asicminer mining op will be hashing at. We know the immersion-cooled datacenter will house at least 1ph.

When you consider the fact that FC plans to sell more than 1000ph of gen3 chips it doesn't seem so hard to imagine even 2btc/share.

[necro_nemesis]

It's a wildly complex variable. Price of BTC. Non interference of the currency. Competition. Difficulty. Ability to develop something no one has achieved before.

One notable thing is friedcat has been faithful to those who put faith in him and that is more than can be said of most in this game. Funds are raised in the most equitable way through paying what you think you should for a very plausible future. This beats the hell out of so many others taking a fixed amount of money up front and falling short of promises. I go by track record and an assumption that silicone isn't the gold being asked by others. A sensible approach at this point can provide substantial returns if people are patient and not overly anxious for a quick fix. The market is maturing and my belief is asicminer is ahead of the rest in that aspect.

Hacks are bad news and destabilize the asset. Security can no longer be taken lightly given how much the currency is valued at.

[discobean]

Right now they are mining 50TH or so?  That's at 330mH chips.  I read somewhere (correct me if wrong) that new chips are 12.8GH each.

So that's 38.7x improvement in speed for gen3.  Using the same facilities from the 50TH they could get 2PH of mining revenue (if power was the same).  + additional from franchises.

Then chip sales.

All speculation.

[nycgoat]

Divs should start to come in before "assembled" miners are ready from re-sellers.  AM is selling chips this time around (Avalon business model), so it would be crazy to think that they will not have a good number of their own miners assembled, running and tested before they release the chips to the public market.  That would fall in line with AM getting their first batch of chips (still a large batch) at the end of this month, 1-2 weeks until they have their first miners up and running.  That would give them a few weeks to test and finalize everything before 3rd party assembled miners start hitting the public sale market through resellers.

tl;dr - A May release to the general public sounds about right.  Shareholders should start to see increased dividends at the beginning of April when AM has their own 3rd gen hardware up and mining, and divs will steadily increas in the weeks after as they deploy more of their own hardware/franchise and they sell chips.

[jimmothy]

Divs should start to come in before "assembled" miners are ready from re-sellers.  AM is selling chips this time around (Avalon business model), so it would be crazy to think that they will not have a good number of their own miners assembled, running and tested before they release the chips to the public market.  That would fall in line with AM getting their first batch of chips (still a large batch) at the end of this month, 1-2 weeks until they have their first miners up and running.  That would give them a few weeks to test and finalize everything before 3rd party assembled miners start hitting the public sale market through resellers.

tl;dr - A May release to the general public sounds about right.  Shareholders should start to see increased dividends at the beginning of April when AM has their own 3rd gen hardware up and mining, and divs will steadily increas in the weeks after as they deploy more of their own hardware/franchise and they sell chips.

+1

I am hoping FC gets the entire immersion cooled datacenter mining on gen3 before mass chip sales begin just to give a little extra btc while the difficulty is low.

[nycgoat]

Divs should start to come in before "assembled" miners are ready from re-sellers.  AM is selling chips this time around (Avalon business model), so it would be crazy to think that they will not have a good number of their own miners assembled, running and tested before they release the chips to the public market.  That would fall in line with AM getting their first batch of chips (still a large batch) at the end of this month, 1-2 weeks until they have their first miners up and running.  That would give them a few weeks to test and finalize everything before 3rd party assembled miners start hitting the public sale market through resellers.

tl;dr - A May release to the general public sounds about right.  Shareholders should start to see increased dividends at the beginning of April when AM has their own 3rd gen hardware up and mining, and divs will steadily increas in the weeks after as they deploy more of their own hardware/franchise and they sell chips.

+1

I am hoping FC gets the entire immersion cooled datacenter mining on gen3 before mass chip sales begin just to give a little extra btc while the difficulty is low.

I would expect the very first batch of hardware to be air cooled because they are going to have to test/debug it and adding the intricacies of immersion cooling wouldn't make sense.  Once the "burn in period" is over (maybe a week or so), I would expect the hardware to slowly be moved to the immersion cooling racks.  Not only is this good for shareholders with divs, but as a strategic move for AM it is the only possible option.  As chip manufacturers refine their designs and move to a smaller chip architecture, there will be no noticeable difference between an AM chip and a XXX chip.  At this point, companies are going to have to add some value that makes their mining operation more appealing to investors/customers.  It wouldn't be out of the question to see immersion cooled rigs for the consumer which are cooled with mineral oil similar to the way people cooled PCs in the late 90's and early 2000's.  On a more macro scale, it makes sense for AM to franchise as many immersion facilities as possible because they offer the most "bang for their buck". 

tl;dr - Yes, it would be awesome for shareholders if they got immersion up and running as quickly as possible and that seems like the most logical path they would take.  It is also in their best interest to continue their growth in immersion cooling and into expanding their supply channels at full speed in order to ensure they will stay a few steps ahead of the competition moving forward.

[Evolyn]

Isn't the immersion cooling already set up and they "only" have to deploy the miners? The pictures some time ago let me think they already worked alot on immersion cooling and the new datacenters/containers and are ready for mass deployment, correct me please if i think wrong.

[nycgoat]

Immersion cooling is currently mining on get 1 hardware, correct.

[Elokane]

Is there any reason what so ever to believe Gen 3 hasn't failed, unlike 2?

[hdbuck]

Is there any reason what so ever to believe Gen 3 hasn't failed, unlike 2?

this?!

News from a Chinese miner forum:http://cybtc.com/article-655-1.html

Rockxie, who is the exclusive distributer for Asicminer's mining machine in China, announced that he will produce his own miners.
The sample miner will be availble in April and the chips would be AM's Gen3.

specification: AM gen3 chips, 40nm, 1TH, 500W.

[klondike_bar]

Right now they are mining 50TH or so?  That's at 330mH chips.  I read somewhere (correct me if wrong) that new chips are 12.8GH each.

So that's 38.7x improvement in speed for gen3.  Using the same facilities from the 50TH they could get 2PH of mining revenue (if power was the same).  + additional from franchises.

Then chip sales.

All speculation.

not how it works. The old chips were 130nm. the new are 40nm.  (roughly 1/3rd = 9x the hashrate/power efficiency)

If the chip had the exact same footprint and power it would be about 2.5-3GH/s
Most likely the new chip will be larger and draw more power in order to attain the 12+Gh of the new chips, roughly 4x the size of the gen1 chips

[necro_nemesis]

Specification
Process node: 40nm
Package type: QFN64 8mmx8mm (with another option of QFN64 7mmx7mm possible)
I/O: Standard SPI protocol with clk, in, out and cs.
Rated Hashrate: 12.8GHash/s per chip, with a wide range of overclock/downclock options
Rated Voltage: 0.72V, recommended voltage range is 0.55V-1V
Power Consumption: 0.2J/GHash low voltage, 0.35J/GHash rated voltage

This is what we were provided thus far with package type and power estimate. Still awaiting the datasheet.

Is the generation derived from a general set of specifications, number of designs from a manufacturer or just generally where ASIC makers currently are in the whole ASIC market. I didn't get the impression much was invested in what's been termed gen 2.

[Mabsark]

Right now they are mining 50TH or so?  That's at 330mH chips.  I read somewhere (correct me if wrong) that new chips are 12.8GH each.

So that's 38.7x improvement in speed for gen3.  Using the same facilities from the 50TH they could get 2PH of mining revenue (if power was the same).  + additional from franchises.

Then chip sales.

All speculation.

not how it works. The old chips were 130nm. the new are 40nm.  (roughly 1/3rd = 9x the hashrate/power efficiency)

If the chip had the exact same footprint and power it would be about 2.5-3GH/s
Most likely the new chip will be larger and draw more power in order to attain the 12+Gh of the new chips, roughly 4x the size of the gen1 chips

Gen 1 chips were 6mm x 6mm
Gen 3 chips will be 8mm x 8mm, with 7mm x 7mm being possible

[He1l_Q]

according to my source:

Manufactures will get sample chips later this month.

If everything goes well, mass production will be in May.

MAY ?! omg ... delayed again we were told multiple times that "everything is still on track, mass delivery in March" from board, from pumpkin, this is info from 1 month ago, 2 weeks ago and last week ! Now another 2 months delay for Christ's sake  unbelievable ... really unbelievable ...

Calm down.... who are these sources?  We should have an update from friedcat any day.

 a head of a new miner manufacturer

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

a head of a new miner manufacturer

so you as future manufacturer of mining hardware (with gen3 AM chips) got an update from ASICminer, that you should expect sample chips later this month, correct?

so your mass production of mining hw starts in May (if everything goes well™) ? not AM gen3 mass chips production, correct?

AM gen3 chips mass deployment was announced and multiple times confirmed to March date.

[Elokane]

Is there any reason what so ever to believe Gen 3 hasn't failed, unlike 2?

this?!

News from a Chinese miner forum:http://cybtc.com/article-655-1.html

Rockxie, who is the exclusive distributer for Asicminer's mining machine in China, announced that he will produce his own miners.
The sample miner will be availble in April and the chips would be AM's Gen3.

specification: AM gen3 chips, 40nm, 1TH, 500W.

Are you angry with me/my questions?

Can you explain how this confirms anything?

[necro_nemesis]

News from a Chinese miner forum:http://cybtc.com/article-655-1.html

Rockxie, who is the exclusive distributer for Asicminer's mining machine in China, announced that he will produce his own miners.
The sample miner will be availble in April and the chips would be AM's Gen3.

specification: AM gen3 chips, 40nm, 1TH, 500W.

Indicates 0.5 W/GHs and that the tapeout was successful?  Am I missing something?

Interesting..
"另外彩云比特从烤猫处了解到第一批三代芯片已经销售完毕。"
tanslate: BTW,FC told CYbtc that the 1st bach of Gen 3 chips has been sold out.

I believe in the absence of information much has been interpreted with respect to ASIC release based on the previous posts which IMHO are open to various interpretations and are inconclusive in determining the general picture on the ASIC delivery issue.

[necro_nemesis]

I believe in the absence of information much has been interpreted with respect to ASIC release based on the previous posts which are open to various interpretations and are inconclusive in determining the general picture on the ASIC delivery issue.

Are you a lawyer? 

tl;dr
Much Speculation.

Nah. I'd make more listening to other arguments. 

[He1l_Q]

a head of a new miner manufacturer

so you as future manufacturer of mining hardware (with gen3 AM chips) got an update from ASICminer, that you should expect sample chips later this month, correct?

so your mass production of mining hw starts in May (if everything goes well™) ? not AM gen3 mass chips production, correct?

AM gen3 chips mass deployment was announced and multiple times confirmed to March date.

I heard these from a head of a miner manufacturer.

He claimed that he had pre-ordered wafers (not chips) from AM directly.

I personally GUESS mass production of gen3 am chips will be in the next month, but it is not confirmed.