ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Puppet]

3) As for the growth potential... this is the bitcoin mining industry, one of the few industries in the world that actually has a very well defined cap to its growth, at least in the medium term (likely next few years) while transaction fees remain a small part of block rewards. Not only does that bound any potential growth, it also makes the competition even more fierce, since competing companies can't simply expand into new and bigger markets or create new demand where demand didn't exist before, rather, they all compete for the same fixed, predetermined, amount of mineable bitcoins.

The above logic lets you actually calculate the network speed, and therefore TAM for asicminer if you make assumptions for things like electricity cost and BTC exchange rate. I did this a year ago, and with the current exchange rate,  it seems we should be heading towards a 5-600PH network at $700/TH. So the TAM is on the order of 300PH which would be worth ~$200M. Or ~400K BTC. Or ballpark of ~1 BTC per AM share. Thats the total available market, how much AM will grab of that, and how much profit margin they will achieve, who knows, but I doubt its gonna be 100% of the market at 100% profit.

[jimmothy]

3) As for the growth potential... this is the bitcoin mining industry, one of the few industries in the world that actually has a very well defined cap to its growth, at least in the medium term (likely next few years) while transaction fees remain a small part of block rewards. Not only does that bound any potential growth, it also makes the competition even more fierce, since competing companies can't simply expand into new and bigger markets or create new demand where demand didn't exist before, rather, they all compete for the same fixed, predetermined, amount of mineable bitcoins.

The above logic lets you actually calculate the network speed, and therefore TAM for asicminer if you make assumptions for things like electricity cost and BTC exchange rate. I did this a year ago, and with the current exchange rate,  it seems we should be heading towards a 5-600PH network at $700/TH. So the TAM is on the order of 300PH which would be worth ~$200M. Or ~400K BTC. Or ballpark of ~1 BTC per AM share. Thats the total available market, how much AM will grab of that, and how much profit margin they will achieve, who knows, but I doubt its gonna be 100% of the market at 100% profit.

The fact that you have to make assumptions about electricity cost, btc exchange rate, hardware cost, hardware efficiency, and miner rationality means you can't actually predict the future hashrate.

[Puppet]

You dont have to guess variables like electricity cost, we have a pretty good idea what it costs. Many of the other variables also to a large extend, cancel each other out for AM if you do the math. Eg, lower hardware costs would result in higher overall network speed on my curves, but decrease the TAM per TH. THe BTC value isnt impacted much at all within the range of reasonable estimates. 

Of course what you end up with is an estimate of the TAM, but its not going to be off by a factor 10x (like most other predictions were last year. I dare say I pretty much nailed it so far).  If you prefer valuing this share by gut feeling instead, be my guest. Happy buying at 1BTC.

[hdbuck]

could be a wise move:

http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2014/09/05/for-kncminer-time-to-forget-selling-bitcoin-machines-to-at-home-miners/

the comments are lulzy tho
nothing to do with AM  

[glendall]

Seems like a lot of rose-colored glasses in here IMHO. Last year AM was poised to be a giant, but they have fell pretty far. They just weren't quick enough and didn't have as many resources as the other giants who entered the field.

There huge first mover advantage was not fully taken advantage of. When the price was 0.25 for a long stretch I thought AM was overvalued, as I said about 20 pages back or so. But 0.16 does seem much more reasonable. But I do not see how anyone can expect any grandiose movements some people are going on about here.

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I still think Friedcat and his team have tons of talent and know-how but it just seems like AM share holders are really secondary, the leadership is pursuing sustainable profits off the books.

All heresay and speculation, just my 2 cents, seeing this company go from +4 BTC share down to 0.15. The bitcoin space changed massively in a year.

[hdbuck]

if not FC, any board member to give us something at this point? pleaaaase? Jutarul?!

[chairforce1]

could be a wise move:

http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2014/09/05/for-kncminer-time-to-forget-selling-bitcoin-machines-to-at-home-miners/

the comments are lulzy tho
nothing to do with AM  

Dat VC money. I instantly think of "age of exahash".

[ensurance982]

The sentiment and general air around here seems to be really really tense again... Does FC even read this thread? Sometimes I hope he doesn't it's just distracting and keeps reminding me of a bar fight...

[hdbuck]

could be a wise move:

http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2014/09/05/for-kncminer-time-to-forget-selling-bitcoin-machines-to-at-home-miners/

the comments are lulzy tho
nothing to do with AM  

Dat VC money. I instantly think of "age of exahash".

What would happen if some VC money comes in AM? Do we get diluted? How would that exactly affect the share price? 

[aahzmundus]

They would have to buy shares on the open market, there was a strong pledge to never dilute the original 400,000 shares.  Although, I am not sure why FC would take VC money, I do not think operating capital is currently a limiting factor, I may be wrong.

[Mabsark]

I think you know the counter to that argument - if you believe bitcoin will go to the moon, just hodl bitcoin.

As for whether ASICMINER will ever return 0.17 btc over the rest of its lifetime, that's a bet that havelock traders are currently split on.

Traders don't care about lifetime profits. They don't even care about company profits at all. They care about making profit on their trades

[RoadStress]

Although, I am not sure why FC would take VC money, I do not think operating capital is currently a limiting factor, I may be wrong.

My personal opinion is that you are wrong here. You can do a lot of things when you have lots of cash.

[yokione]

could be a wise move:

[Suspicious link removed]j.com/venturecapital/2014/09/05/for-kncminer-time-to-forget-selling-bitcoin-machines-to-at-home-miners/

the comments are lulzy tho
nothing to do with AM  

Dat VC money. I instantly think of "age of exahash".

What would happen if some VC money comes in AM? Do we get diluted? How would that exactly affect the share price? 

I don't think AM needs any VC money. Actually, if it does, FC, who still possesses tens of  thousands of BTC can be that VC himself.

[Blazed]

Seems like a lot of rose-colored glasses in here IMHO. Last year AM was poised to be a giant, but they have fell pretty far. They just weren't quick enough and didn't have as many resources as the other giants who entered the field.

There huge first mover advantage was not fully taken advantage of. When the price was 0.25 for a long stretch I thought AM was overvalued, as I said about 20 pages back or so. But 0.16 does seem much more reasonable. But I do not see how anyone can expect any grandiose movements some people are going on about here.

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I still think Friedcat and his team have tons of talent and know-how but it just seems like AM share holders are really secondary, the leadership is pursuing sustainable profits off the books.

All heresay and speculation, just my 2 cents, seeing this company go from +4 BTC share down to 0.15. The bitcoin space changed massively in a year.

I would have to agree with you...I think off books they are killing it, and that explains the lack of interest towards this thread and shareholders. Obviously I am just speculating like everyone else here since we do not know anything, but it does fit the scenario pretty well.

[KarmaShark]

Seems like a lot of rose-colored glasses in here IMHO. Last year AM was poised to be a giant, but they have fell pretty far. They just weren't quick enough and didn't have as many resources as the other giants who entered the field.

There huge first mover advantage was not fully taken advantage of. When the price was 0.25 for a long stretch I thought AM was overvalued, as I said about 20 pages back or so. But 0.16 does seem much more reasonable. But I do not see how anyone can expect any grandiose movements some people are going on about here.

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I still think Friedcat and his team have tons of talent and know-how but it just seems like AM share holders are really secondary, the leadership is pursuing sustainable profits off the books.

All heresay and speculation, just my 2 cents, seeing this company go from +4 BTC share down to 0.15. The bitcoin space changed massively in a year.

I would have to agree with you...I think off books they are killing it, and that explains the lack of interest towards this thread and shareholders. Obviously I am just speculating like everyone else here since we do not know anything, but it does fit the scenario pretty well.

If this were the case and AM was transitioning profitable aspects of the company into other areas off the book, board members would likely be the first to be aware of this and sound the alarm. A few of the board members post here the odd time, I would expect this would have been vetted here in the shareholder thread by now in such a scenario.

[RoadStress]

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I don't know if you are a shareholder or if you are affiliated with any other company, but I am glad to hear someone else have this opinion. I expressed it in the past too, but having an affiliate link in the signature got me only insults.

If this were the case and AM was transitioning profitable aspects of the company into other areas off the book, board members would likely be the first to be aware of this and sound the alarm. A few of the board members post here the odd time, I would expect this would have been vetted here in the shareholder thread by now in such a scenario.

You mean the board members that got ~6x their initial investment in form of dividends? What if they are shareholders in the tick companies? Or what if they just don't care?

[stompysteve]

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I don't know if you are a shareholder or if you are affiliated with any other company, but I am glad to hear someone else have this opinion. I expressed it in the past too, but having an affiliate link in the signature got me only insults.

what like rockminer? they still have to buy the chips from AM

[jjdub7]

Seems like a lot of rose-colored glasses in here IMHO. Last year AM was poised to be a giant, but they have fell pretty far. They just weren't quick enough and didn't have as many resources as the other giants who entered the field.

There huge first mover advantage was not fully taken advantage of. When the price was 0.25 for a long stretch I thought AM was overvalued, as I said about 20 pages back or so. But 0.16 does seem much more reasonable. But I do not see how anyone can expect any grandiose movements some people are going on about here.

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I still think Friedcat and his team have tons of talent and know-how but it just seems like AM share holders are really secondary, the leadership is pursuing sustainable profits off the books.

All heresay and speculation, just my 2 cents, seeing this company go from +4 BTC share down to 0.15. The bitcoin space changed massively in a year.

I would have to agree with you...I think off books they are killing it, and that explains the lack of interest towards this thread and shareholders. Obviously I am just speculating like everyone else here since we do not know anything, but it does fit the scenario pretty well.

I mentioned the other night that I've thought it weird that many in this thread have found sales addresses closely connected with what appear to be exchange addresses.

[webbrowser]

Seems like a lot of rose-colored glasses in here IMHO. Last year AM was poised to be a giant, but they have fell pretty far. They just weren't quick enough and didn't have as many resources as the other giants who entered the field.

There huge first mover advantage was not fully taken advantage of. When the price was 0.25 for a long stretch I thought AM was overvalued, as I said about 20 pages back or so. But 0.16 does seem much more reasonable. But I do not see how anyone can expect any grandiose movements some people are going on about here.

I get the sense that the profitable elements of the company have been removed, or planned to be removed, from AM's stock and into other entities.

I still think Friedcat and his team have tons of talent and know-how but it just seems like AM share holders are really secondary, the leadership is pursuing sustainable profits off the books.

All heresay and speculation, just my 2 cents, seeing this company go from +4 BTC share down to 0.15. The bitcoin space changed massively in a year.

I would have to agree with you...I think off books they are killing it, and that explains the lack of interest towards this thread and shareholders. Obviously I am just speculating like everyone else here since we do not know anything, but it does fit the scenario pretty well.

If this were the case and AM was transitioning profitable aspects of the company into other areas off the book, board members would likely be the first to be aware of this and sound the alarm. A few of the board members post here the odd time, I would expect this would have been vetted here in the shareholder thread by now in such a scenario.

Not saying that this is happening, but if it did happen and the board members could not stop this from happening, what would they do?

Find ways to sell whatever shares they could?
Or sound the alarm? And to what ends?

[willBTC]

I heard that the 28nm chip will tape-out in 8 days.