ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[xhomerx10]

bitcoin down, AM up

 It seems like AM tracks to the US dollar (and also to dividends).

[empoweoqwj]

In the current mining climate (declining BTC value, exponentially increasing difficulty, fierce competition) it is hard enough for an ASIC manufacturer to survive, let alone thrive.

I would not expect anything in terms of dividends. Gen2 was vaporware and Gen3 a bit of a dud due to a design mistake that significantly increased power consumption. I think the best we can hope for is for friedcat to roll over any earnings from Gen3 to accelerate and perfect development of Gen4. Shareholders looking for short term gains will be disappointed. In the long run, I think AM is still well positioned to come out on top and worth the risk of holding shares.

I also believe that this is the way to go! The Bitcoin price is just too low at the moment, even ROCKMINER decided to postpone their 2 PH/s mining operation.... AM just doesn't seem to have enough of a margin to spend the income as dividends. I think the best thing to do would be to order massive amounts of gen 4 chips ASAP.

That was exactly their policy with gen 3. How did that work out?

Bottom line, if they aren't paying dividends, share price will slide and slide. There is no way AM can wipe out  the competition because of "lowest cost". Business ain't that simple.

Yeah, but gen 3 had two or three big problems: About half as efficient as planned, at least two months to late, focus on selling the chip when the mining market got much too saturated (in combination with higher power consumption of BE200) and wasting 2-3 months on selling the chip before self-mining. In addition we saw a steep decline of the BTC price, which AM couldn't have prevented.
That being said, if things worked out better, we'd have had a gen 3 chip almost twice as efficient, self-mining in March/April, and potentially a better price. I do see where at least half of those things wouldn't necessarily be a problem with gen 4!

Again, relying on hope ..... AM didn't predict these problems with Gen3 did they? They told us how amazingly power efficient the chips would be. Why do you believe, and that's believe, and not hope, Gen4 will be any different. Not even talking about Gen2 that disappeared without even being made without an explanation.

You know the bitcoin price could easily decline from where it is now right? You don't have to believe all the bitcoiners that we are going to $3000 soon.

Its a quintessential human quality, hope. People make a lot of money off it

All I'm saying is for every optimistic circumstance there is the opposite. I should know. I paid 4 BTC for AM shares a year or so ago .....

[hdbuck]

I think the situation of bitcoin, AM et al should unfold soon now. It is not sustainable for investors nor for the miners. And Im not going to panic.

[empoweoqwj]

I think the situation of bitcoin, AM et al should unfold soon now. It is not sustainable for investors nor for the miners. And Im not going to panic.

You mean you aren't going to sell?

Neither am I, but only because my shares are worth peanuts compare with what I paid for them. They just aren't worth selling at current levels.

[xhomerx10]

In the current mining climate (declining BTC value, exponentially increasing difficulty, fierce competition) it is hard enough for an ASIC manufacturer to survive, let alone thrive.

I would not expect anything in terms of dividends. Gen2 was vaporware and Gen3 a bit of a dud due to a design mistake that significantly increased power consumption. I think the best we can hope for is for friedcat to roll over any earnings from Gen3 to accelerate and perfect development of Gen4. Shareholders looking for short term gains will be disappointed. In the long run, I think AM is still well positioned to come out on top and worth the risk of holding shares.

I also believe that this is the way to go! The Bitcoin price is just too low at the moment, even ROCKMINER decided to postpone their 2 PH/s mining operation.... AM just doesn't seem to have enough of a margin to spend the income as dividends. I think the best thing to do would be to order massive amounts of gen 4 chips ASAP.

That was exactly their policy with gen 3. How did that work out?

Bottom line, if they aren't paying dividends, share price will slide and slide. There is no way AM can wipe out  the competition because of "lowest cost". Business ain't that simple.

Yeah, but gen 3 had two or three big problems: About half as efficient as planned, at least two months to late, focus on selling the chip when the mining market got much too saturated (in combination with higher power consumption of BE200) and wasting 2-3 months on selling the chip before self-mining. In addition we saw a steep decline of the BTC price, which AM couldn't have prevented.
That being said, if things worked out better, we'd have had a gen 3 chip almost twice as efficient, self-mining in March/April, and potentially a better price. I do see where at least half of those things wouldn't necessarily be a problem with gen 4!

Again, relying on hope ..... AM didn't predict these problems with Gen3 did they? They told us how amazingly power efficient the chips would be. Why do you believe, and that's believe, and not hope, Gen4 will be any different. Not even talking about Gen2 that disappeared without even being made without an explanation.

You know the bitcoin price could easily decline from where it is now right? You don't have to believe all the bitcoiners that we are going to $3000 soon.

Its a quintessential human quality, hope. People make a lot of money off it

All I'm saying is for every optimistic circumstance there is the opposite. I should know. I paid 4 BTC for AM shares a year or so ago .....

 As friedcat has already said, they have learned a lot from their shortcomings with gen 3.  If they incorporate those lessons into gen 4, all we have to hope for is that no new issues arise and we'll have another winner.
Didn't AM already convert their Bitcoin hodlings to fiat - we're already winning

[webbrowser]

I should know. I paid 4 BTC for AM shares a year or so ago .....

Didn't you lose all your AM shares when your havelock account got hacked, or did I get people mixed up?

[Mabsark]

Again, relying on hope ..... AM didn't predict these problems with Gen3 did they? They told us how amazingly power efficient the chips would be. Why do you believe, and that's believe, and not hope, Gen4 will be any different. Not even talking about Gen2 that disappeared without even being made without an explanation.

I believe gen 4 will be better because FC said that AM had identified the problem with gen 3 and had fixed it for gen 4.

You know the bitcoin price could easily decline from where it is now right? You don't have to believe all the bitcoiners that we are going to $3000 soon.

Bitcoiners? Are you not a bitcoiner? If you thought the price was going to keep dropping, it would be logical to sell all your AM shares and all your bitcoin too. But here you are.

Its a quintessential human quality, hope. People make a lot of money off it

All I'm saying is for every optimistic circumstance there is the opposite. I should know. I paid 4 BTC for AM shares a year or so ago .....

And I told you back then those prices were idiotic and AM wasn't worth anywhere near that much. I told you that competition would exist in the future that didn't exist then. I told you that AM's advantage at that time was simply because they were first onto the field and that in the future they wouldn't be able to sell miners anywhere near the price they were going for back then due to competition. Most people here called me a troll and continued hyping the shares.

It's funny that now all that has come to pass, you're spreading doom and gloom and I'm saying things are actually better than they appear to be. AM should have easily sold enough product to pay for gen 4 (it would only take around 6 Ph/s of chips at 0.5 $/G). AM sold more than that in chips alone before April, so it it's a pretty solid assumption that they've sold more than that in chips and miner since April too. They've also been mining for a couple of months too now, and we've seen fairly large sums of BTC being shifted around known AM addresses.

AM are not in anywhere near as bad as a position as people here are assuming.

[Bonam]

Didn't AM already convert their Bitcoin hodlings to fiat - we're already winning

Where has FC ever said that AM has converted its bitcoin holdings to fiat?

[Bonam]

I believe gen 4 will be better because FC said that AM had identified the problem with gen 3 and had fixed it for gen 4.

And how many new problems will pop up in developing gen 4 that were not in gen 3? The smaller the process you go to, the more issues there are to think about and contend with, and the more unforeseen problems can pop up.

[Mabsark]

I should know. I paid 4 BTC for AM shares a year or so ago .....

Didn't you lose all your AM shares when your havelock account got hacked, or did I get people mixed up?

He sure did, well remembered.

Just a warning - I've just had my havelock account hacked and all my AM1 shares stolen, and money withdrawn from account.

I had both 2FA enabled, and login from my own country, Thailand. The thief managed to bypass both of those somehow.

I'm devastated right now - I have asked havelock if they can do anything about it ....

That is why price has gone down at havelock - someone sold my 150 shares and then withdrawn the bitcoins.

All withdrawn to: 18jURpZJjcpdp8Utdf9tePVY4VGK84DmUy

Looks like he's trying to back back in on the cheap.  

Didn't AM already convert their Bitcoin hodlings to fiat - we're already winning

Where has FC ever said that AM has converted its bitcoin holdings to fiat?

Lol, how do you think they pay for mask and chips? Do you think the fabs and data centres take bitcoin or something?

[RoadStress]

AM sold more than that in chips alone before April, so it it's a pretty solid assumption that they've sold more than that in chips and miner since April too. They've also been mining for a couple of months too now, and we've seen fairly large sums of BTC being shifted around known AM addresses.

How do you know they sold more than 6Ph/s chips in April? Do you have a proof or are you pulling the numbers out of your...belly?

Also do you know the speed of the self mine or it's out of thin air again? Last that I know Am had 200Th/s on BTCGuid. Haven't saw any other official number yet.

[CoinBomb]

Looks like we've got a new benchmark to hit.

http://cointerra.com/product/aire-miner-bitcoin-miner/

(I know : pre-orders. urgh. untested chips. urgh. etc etc - but if they ship on time, we'll be left behind. again.

[hdbuck]

Looks like we've got a new benchmark to hit.

http://cointerra.com/product/aire-miner-bitcoin-miner/

(I know : pre-orders. urgh. untested chips. urgh. etc etc - but if they ship on time, we'll be left behind. again.

16nm? rofl. not gonna happen.

[Mabsark]

I believe gen 4 will be better because FC said that AM had identified the problem with gen 3 and had fixed it for gen 4.

And how many new problems will pop up in developing gen 4 that were not in gen 3? The smaller the process you go to, the more issues there are to think about and contend with, and the more unforeseen problems can pop up.

How are any of us supposed to know that?

AM sold more than that in chips alone before April, so it it's a pretty solid assumption that they've sold more than that in chips and miner since April too. They've also been mining for a couple of months too now, and we've seen fairly large sums of BTC being shifted around known AM addresses.

How do you know they sold more than 6Ph/s chips in April? Do you have a proof or are you pulling the numbers out of your...belly?

Also do you know the speed of the self mine or it's out of thin air again? Last that I know Am had 200Th/s on BTCGuid. Haven't saw any other official number yet.

It is proven by the financial reports released from 27th of May. FC also said in the follow up QA that most of those sales occurred before May. Based on the data we have (4,450,477 USD from chip sales, 0.5$/G on average from chip sales and 10 Gh/s per chip), AM basically sold around 9 Ph/s worth of chips in April.

No, none of us know how much hashing power the mine has. You already know that so why are you asking?

[Franktank]

Looks like we've got a new benchmark to hit.

http://cointerra.com/product/aire-miner-bitcoin-miner/

(I know : pre-orders. urgh. untested chips. urgh. etc etc - but if they ship on time, we'll be left behind. again.

16nm? rofl. not gonna happen.

Something else to keep in mind: http://cointelegraph.com/news/112520/bitfury-announces-02-jgh-energy-efficiency-plans-sub-01-jgh-by-mid-2015

Gen 4 will be competing with that.

[RoadStress]

It is proven by the financial reports released from 27th of May. FC also said in the follow up QA that most of those sales occurred before May. Based on the data we have (4,450,477 USD from chip sales, 0.5$/G on average from chip sales and 10 Gh/s per chip), AM basically sold around 9 Ph/s worth of chips in April.

No, none of us know how much hashing power the mine has. You already know that so why are you asking?

Ok fair enough. I was asking because I saw some discussions about the hashrate and I haven't kept up to date with them.

But don't forget that in less than 2 weeks my assumption of no dividends this month too will become FACT. Enjoy.

[hdbuck]

Looks like we've got a new benchmark to hit.

http://cointerra.com/product/aire-miner-bitcoin-miner/

(I know : pre-orders. urgh. untested chips. urgh. etc etc - but if they ship on time, we'll be left behind. again.

16nm? rofl. not gonna happen.

Something else to keep in mind: http://cointelegraph.com/news/112520/bitfury-announces-02-jgh-energy-efficiency-plans-sub-01-jgh-by-mid-2015

Gen 4 will be competing with that.

Bitfury is a bit more serious, although it doesnt say with which node they intend to make 0,2J/GH happen.. But coincraft? rolf (again). Their 16nm is nothing but smoking too much pot (or worse). What about the class action against them? AM is not going to compete against something that is not real. They (and their clients) are obviously delirious.

[Mabsark]

Looks like we've got a new benchmark to hit.

http://cointerra.com/product/aire-miner-bitcoin-miner/

(I know : pre-orders. urgh. untested chips. urgh. etc etc - but if they ship on time, we'll be left behind. again.

16nm? rofl. not gonna happen.

Something else to keep in mind: http://cointelegraph.com/news/112520/bitfury-announces-02-jgh-energy-efficiency-plans-sub-01-jgh-by-mid-2015

Gen 4 will be competing with that.

Meh! FC announced plans for 0.2 J/Gh back in January for gen 3.

Power Consumption: 0.2J/GHash low voltage, 0.35J/GHash rated voltage

Things don't always go according to plan though. The flaws were identified and fixed for gen 4 and given the die shrink, gen 4 should be able to go lower than 0.2J/Gh in a low power mode.

6) What is the progress on gen4?

It is 28nm and has two major improvements: the first one is to fix the design errors we had with 40nm (which made our silicon data two times worse than simulated data). We believe that 0.35W/G at rated speed of 400MHz would be achievable in 40nm if no mistakes were made before. The second one is the technology improvement from 40nm to 28nm in terms of density, speed and power.

We are on the stage of evaluating the final design choices by running the physical design flow on different settings.

So, if gen4 works as well as FC expects it shouldn't really have any problem competing with BitFury's new chips in terms of efficiency.

[hdbuck]

+1 mabsark. Did not see this one!

edit: i like the sound of "june"... "final design"

edit edit: FC! FC! FC!

[Bonam]

Didn't AM already convert their Bitcoin hodlings to fiat - we're already winning

Where has FC ever said that AM has converted its bitcoin holdings to fiat?

Lol, how do you think they pay for mask and chips? Do you think the fabs and data centres take bitcoin or something?

In this context, holdings refers to the capital they still hold... not to what was used up on expenses like chip fabrication. Clearly they would have paid for those types of expenses in fiat, but I see no reason to believe that the rest of the bitcoin that AM may have mined/earned was converted to fiat, as xhomerx10 suggested.