hdbuck
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October 06, 2014, 08:45:52 PM |
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Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
nah, 350$/btc is still much better than last year. ... and difficulty is MUCH MUCH better than last year. Nothing to compare... right, still AM's capacity is not the same too. |
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RoadStress
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October 06, 2014, 09:04:05 PM |
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right, still AM's capacity is not the same too.
But nowhere to be seen! |
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hdbuck
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October 06, 2014, 09:05:37 PM |
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right, still AM's capacity is not the same too.
But nowhere to be seen! they at least have produced 60Ph more. bitch.  |
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RoadStress
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October 06, 2014, 09:30:35 PM |
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right, still AM's capacity is not the same too.
But nowhere to be seen! they at least have produced 60Ph more. bitch. Produced is not equal to having online! |
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hdbuck
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October 06, 2014, 09:38:08 PM |
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right, still AM's capacity is not the same too.
But nowhere to be seen! they at least have produced 60Ph more. bitch. Produced is not equal to having online! and selling is not equal to be produced. tell this to spongebobtech. |
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JoTheKhan
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October 06, 2014, 09:44:46 PM |
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right, still AM's capacity is not the same too.
But nowhere to be seen! they at least have produced 60Ph more. bitch. Produced is not equal to having online! and selling is not equal to be produced. tell this to spongebobtech. No reason to argue back and forth. |
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hdbuck
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October 06, 2014, 09:49:13 PM |
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right, still AM's capacity is not the same too.
But nowhere to be seen! they at least have produced 60Ph more. bitch. Produced is not equal to having online! and selling is not equal to be produced. tell this to spongebobtech. No reason to argue back and forth. sure ^^ power to FC teh almighty. |
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jdany
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October 06, 2014, 10:08:06 PM |
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No reason to argue back and forth.
Shush. This is gunna get good. |
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Fordee
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October 07, 2014, 02:59:38 AM |
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*grabbing popcorn
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Puppet
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October 07, 2014, 07:43:38 AM |
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Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:  It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh) |
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rudi
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October 07, 2014, 07:56:16 AM |
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Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you: It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh) But only AM is selling at ~$330/TH. Spondoolies is advertising $650/TH ... for a pre-order. And my understanding is that other producers are even more expensive? At which price per TH does it not become profitable to mine anymore, even if you get free electricity? |
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bitsalame
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Preaching the gospel of Satoshi
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October 07, 2014, 07:59:05 AM |
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can you share the spreadsheet?
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Puppet
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October 07, 2014, 08:00:25 AM |
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But only AM is selling at ~$330/TH. Spondoolies is advertising $650/TH ... for a pre-order. And my understanding is that other producers are even more expensive?
Its not because they are asking that much to individual miners and their costs are anything like that. Even so, if we were to calculate with $700/TH, we get this:  |
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Puppet
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October 07, 2014, 08:05:32 AM |
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rudi
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October 07, 2014, 08:08:29 AM |
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Thanks, very interesting.
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MrTeal
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October 07, 2014, 04:11:55 PM |
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ASICMiner isn't selling at $330/TH/s. Their product is $330/TH/s, but that's not an installed and hashing price. That's a little pessimistic in some ways, and optimistic in others. First, I'd set the break even period to ~650 days, which is about 93 weeks. That's about the time the block reward is going to drop to 12.5BTC, which baring a major shift in the price or hashrate will make everything unprofitable. If price doesn't move, I would suspect we would see all the hardware in the pipe get flushed, but not a lot of new wafer starts after that. It's already incredibly tough to move hardware, and without pre-orders investing the money in 500PH/s worth of wafers is quite risky if you're looking to sell them at close to marginal cost. My gut is that baring price movement we see another doubling to ~500PH/s in the next few months, and then maybe some slow movement from there. Going much beyond 600PH/s or so is going to take someone producing an awesome new ASIC that can get decently better than 0.5J/GH and $250/TH/s though, IMO. |
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laustcozz
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October 07, 2014, 05:23:21 PM |
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Holy dump batman! Someone is trying to start a panic.
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sharky101
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October 07, 2014, 05:27:04 PM |
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Holy dump batman! Someone is trying to start a panic.
Trading in the dark. Is it still Chinese holidays? |
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Bonam
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October 07, 2014, 05:30:23 PM |
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Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you: It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh) What % difficulty increase per period are you assuming in your calculations? |
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jimmothy
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October 07, 2014, 05:36:15 PM |
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Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you: It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh) What % difficulty increase per period are you assuming in your calculations? It's not a difficulty prediction tool, it's an endgame estimation tool. If we know the $/gh, w/gh, and $/kwh we can estimate how much hashrate it would take before nobody could afford to continue adding hashing power. (but not when or at what rate) We don't know the variable so it's only a guess but his point is clear that J/GH does make a huge difference. |
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