In your estimation do you consider the possibility of circulating supply increase?
Currently there are 84 mil AMPs. If it stays fixed and WildSpark is successful and more people want AMPs and they start buying AMPs, this will lead to price increase.
But recently I'm thinking of other scenario.
Steemit exploited initial large payouts to bootstrap their economy and attract lots of media coverage with headlines like
Steemit awards $1.3 Million to Users. (Although it is amazing how posts like
this can earn $6k).
That is no big deal they will probably sell the other AMP tokens to institutional investors over the counter, so it will have no impact on the price whatsoever. Many startups do this, they sell the excess shares outside the market in private deals and that doesnt have an impact on the market.
In fact the price might even go up, since institutional investors hold for long term 5-10-15 years who knows, and it we know that the excess AMPs have been bought by big investors, we can be sure that that AMP wont be dumped in the near future, ensuring further stability.
Other remaining AMPs could be burned as well.
Synereo has "User Reward Wallet" and "Content Creator Wallet" totalling 175 mil AMPs. They may decide to start giving them away to content creators and curators to bootstrap the economy. For the economy in general this would be broader distribution, which is good. For investors hoping for supply scarcity this would be direct supply dilution and selling pressure.
I dont know how that will work but yes it would be a good idea to give bonuses to first users to bootstrap the product.
I expect a massive marketing campaign from Synereo so the price could easily skyrocket by the end of the year.