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1001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: February 15, 2013, 01:39:50 AM
We are all aware about today's record-high USD volume, so I took the liberty of providing a few charts to that effect.

But first, our update. February has taken over 13 of the top 20 so far, and it's only halfway done. Unfortunately, it isn't possible anymore to fill the entire ladder with 2013-02 by month's end.

1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58
2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25
3. 2013-02-13 W. Avg: 25.48
4. 2013-02-14 W. Avg: 25.46
5. 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 25.09
6. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
7. 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 24.13
8. 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 23.42
9. 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 23.24
10. 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 22.42
11. 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 21.61
12. 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 21.09
13. 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 20.73
14. 2013-01-31 W. Avg: 20.58
15. 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.57
16. 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 20.42
17. 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 20.26
18. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11
19. 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 19.90
20. 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 19.68


Today's record volume means that today's weighted average has a lot more weight. Unfortunately, this isn't really visible on the seasonal trends chart (which I have posted here before):


Earlier I posted about the "King Effect". Well, it's reversed. This can mean two things: one, the king effect applied to Bitcoin is utter bollocks; two, a correction is due; or three, we will soon rally to new heights. If you believe in the king effect applied to Bitcoin, stability ain't going to happen anytime soon.
1002  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: France Is Planning To Prohibit Cash Payments Over €1,000 on: February 14, 2013, 10:36:01 PM
Quote
just look at Greece, Spain and Italy, all these economies have gone into a serious tail-spin since cash transactions became restricted
Nah, at least for Italy i can safely say that our economy (or better, our politic class) was failing even before that. Our problems aren't caused by this restriction.
Yeah, of course this restriction is not helping anyone. But our troubles are not caused by that

"Looks like the house is on fire!"
"I've an idea! Douse it with petrol!"
1003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: February 14, 2013, 08:38:27 PM
Weekly weighted average has set the record high:

1. 2013-02-07 through 2013-02-13 W. Avg: 23.81
2. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 23.38
3. 2013-02-06 through 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 23.01
4. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 22.62
5. 2013-02-05 through 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 22.30
6. 2013-02-04 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.86
7. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 21.42
8. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 21.41
9. 2013-02-03 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 21.41
10. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 21.31
11. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 21.30
12. 2013-02-02 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.78
13. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.56
14. 2013-01-31 through 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 20.39
15. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 20.25
16. 2013-01-30 through 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.19
17. 2013-01-29 through 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 19.97
18. 2013-01-28 through 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 19.71
19. 2013-01-27 through 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 19.56
20. 2013-01-26 through 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 19.37
1004  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: coinbase.com sending unconfirmed? Huge risk? on: February 13, 2013, 11:06:11 PM
Does a transaction removed from the memory pool result in a negative fee displayed on blockchain?

That just looks like a bad transaction. I'm a bit surprised that it would get relayed or stored in blockchain.info's memory pool. It shouldn't ever confirm.

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/52591276
Does the protocol allow miners to in theory include the transaction, taking a negative tx fee?
1005  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: un -f- confirmed on: February 13, 2013, 01:17:26 AM
I only looked at the first one but it is one giant "spammy" transaction (per low priority rules) which is 22KB and has a fee of 0.005 BTC.  The min mandatory fee for low priority transactions is 0.0005 BTC per kb.  For this tx that would require 0.011 BTC so the tx is non-compliant and many nodes will simply drop it.

Even with a 0.011 fee how long it takes to be confirmed depends on if a miner wants to include it in a block.  Most miners are just going to pass on including junk like this.  22KB with 600? outputs is enough to increase the risk of getting an orphan.   So say it increases propagation delay by 1%.   So I can collect get 25 BTC or include your tx and get 25.01 BTC but 1% of the time I lose the entire block.  In the long run I earn more by not including your tx.  If I were running a pool I wouldn't include it ... ever.

Not really, since the propagation delay also increases the amount of time other miners work on an old block. I don't have a mathematical proof, but my gut feeling is that on average the size of the block simply does not matter.
1006  Economy / Economics / Re: How could wages in Bitcoin work? on: February 13, 2013, 01:05:21 AM
I believe dominance should be determined by how independent the employees are - having transferable skills, not being dependent on a single job, being able to ask for increased job compensation without fear of being laid off, and if they are laid off, being able to find another job or resort to starting a business themselves - and that it should NOT be determined by how much power and force the employee can exhert over the employer, either through threats of union strikes, or legal controls and regulations.
I feel completely comfortable with my employees working on side projects, learning new things, and ask them to update their resumes at least once a year with whatever new skills and tasks they have picked up recently. I WANT them to feel like they don't depend on me, because them not feeling tied to me and their job actually keeps us on friendlier, more open, and more even terms, and keeps the business more productive and innovative. If my employees were in a union, or had some sort of control over keeping their job against my will, the work environment would have been a lot more stressful, with "me vs you" tensions rising often.

Suppressing a voluntary union is asserting dominance. I don't support mandatory unions, but trying to eliminate all unions is effectively bullying your employees.
1007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: February 13, 2013, 12:53:41 AM
And so continues the march to record highs.
1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58
2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25
3. 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 25.09
4. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
5. 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 24.13
6. 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 23.42
7. 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 23.24
8. 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 22.42
9. 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 21.61
10. 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 21.09
11. 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 20.73
12. 2013-01-31 W. Avg: 20.58
13. 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.57
14. 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 20.42
15. 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 20.26
16. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11
17. 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 19.90
18. 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 19.68
19. 2013-01-30 W. Avg: 19.48
20. 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 19.47


The third-consecutive decade that broke the record high. Unless the price meanders below 21 USD, we are likely to break the record again tomorrow.
1. 2013-02-03 through 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 22.38
2. 2013-02-02 through 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 21.49
3. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.26
4. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 21.09
5. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 21.04
6. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 20.97
7. 2013-01-31 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 20.91
8. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.79
9. 2013-01-30 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.64
10. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-17 W. Avg: 20.43
11. 2011-06-02 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 20.41
12. 2013-01-29 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.28
13. 2011-06-01 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 20.17
14. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 20.14
15. 2013-01-28 through 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 19.94
16. 2013-01-27 through 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 19.74
17. 2013-01-26 through 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 19.53
18. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-18 W. Avg: 19.28
19. 2013-01-25 through 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 19.06
20. 2013-01-24 through 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 18.70


Record high weekly weighted average? Just a bit away.
1. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 23.38
2. 2013-02-06 through 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 23.01
3. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 22.62
4. 2013-02-05 through 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 22.30
5. 2013-02-04 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.86
6. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 21.42
7. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 21.41
8. 2013-02-03 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 21.41
9. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 21.31
10. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 21.3
11. 2013-02-02 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.78
12. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.56
13. 2013-01-31 through 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 20.39
14. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 20.25
15. 2013-01-30 through 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.19
16. 2013-01-29 through 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 19.97
17. 2013-01-28 through 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 19.71
18. 2013-01-27 through 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 19.56
19. 2013-01-26 through 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 19.37
20. 2011-06-10 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 19.06
1008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is this the crash/correction? on: February 12, 2013, 11:36:45 PM
I've noticed some traits common to every crash/correction.

1. Before the crash, there is an above-average rate of increase.
2. The crash begins with a sudden drop wiping out a day of growth.
3. Someone somewhere panics and says "is this the crash?".
4. The crash suddenly stops and then a sudden spike wipes out half the crash.
5. Someone elsewhere stops panicking and says "no it isn't a crash; look it's going up again".
6. The crash suddenly restarts and this time crashes very far.
7. Eventually, the crash ends and the cycle begins again.
1009  Other / Off-topic / Re: If I had a bitcoin... on: February 12, 2013, 11:20:58 PM
I would buy myself a 1.2 g Lemon Quartz gem.
1010  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: hi all, 10% allocated to BTC, how much you? on: February 12, 2013, 12:45:59 AM
Bitcoin rocks! The best investment ever!

I have allocated 10% of my capital to it and hope to crack that up to 20% over the coming year.

I only started buying in October 2012 around $12 and got lucky it skyrocketed since to $22.

This is beautiful. Smiley

How much of your capital have you allocated already?


That seems like a lot to allocate to a single, high risk investment. As long as that on any given day you can say to yourself, "tomorrow, the only thing left of Bitcoin may be my wallet.dat" and feel comfortable. Don't kid yourself, there is probability, not insignificant, that it could happen (likely it would leave the network but no way to exchange to and from BTC, IMHO).

If you could find 15-20 other investments not related to bitcoin but just as risky, you would (might) have less chance of total ruin. Not as much fun, but let's you invest in the next *coin if this one doesn't work out.

If Bitcoin fails nothing like it will succeed. Bitcoin may be a blind pilot flying in a hurricane, but at least there is a pilot.

That said, it is unwise for a "RationalSpeculator" to invest so much into Bitcoin.
1011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: February 12, 2013, 12:30:21 AM
And so commences the march to record highs.
1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58
2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25
3. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
4. 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 24.13
5. 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 23.42
6. 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 23.24
7. 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 22.42
8. 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 21.61
9. 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 21.09
10. 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 20.73
11. 2013-01-31 W. Avg: 20.58
12. 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.57
13. 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 20.42
14. 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 20.26
15. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11
16. 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 19.90
17. 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 19.68
18. 2013-01-30 W. Avg: 19.48
19. 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 19.47
20. 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 19.25


The second-consecutive decade that broke the record high. Unless the price meanders below 21 USD, we are likely to break the record again tomorrow.
1. 2013-02-02 through 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 21.49
2. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.26
3. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 21.09
4. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 21.04
5. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 20.97
6. 2013-01-31 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 20.91
7. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.79
8. 2013-01-30 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.64
9. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-17 W. Avg: 20.43
10. 2011-06-02 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 20.41
11. 2013-01-29 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.28
12. 2011-06-01 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 20.17
13. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 20.14
14. 2013-01-28 through 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 19.94
15. 2013-01-27 through 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 19.74
16. 2013-01-26 through 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 19.53
17. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-18 W. Avg: 19.28
18. 2013-01-25 through 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 19.06
19. 2013-01-24 through 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 18.70
20. 2013-01-23 through 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 18.50


Inching closer to the weekly record. The next two rungs should be easily scaled.
1. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 23.38
2. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 22.62
3. 2013-02-05 through 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 22.30
4. 2013-02-04 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.86
5. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 21.42
6. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 21.41
7. 2013-02-03 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 21.41
8. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 21.31
9. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 21.30
10. 2013-02-02 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.78
11. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.56
12. 2013-01-31 through 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 20.39
13. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 20.25
14. 2013-01-30 through 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.19
15. 2013-01-29 through 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 19.97
16. 2013-01-28 through 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 19.71
17. 2013-01-27 through 2013-02-02 W. Avg: 19.56
18. 2013-01-26 through 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 19.37
19. 2011-06-10 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 19.06
20. 2011-06-02 through 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 18.83
1012  Other / Meta / Re: Upcoming downtime on: February 11, 2013, 11:17:50 PM
I'm already using that.

I may have improved the situation by decreasing the maximum amount of memory that php-fpm and mysql can use.

Why not just install more memory with the forum's funds?
1013  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin Gem WordPress Plugin on: February 11, 2013, 10:08:18 PM
WoW bitcoin is becoming like the real world, let me guess anzy is from china, where ideas are to steal others. I hope the mods remove this copy of a stupid idea, which made it even dumber.

Or Apple.
1014  Economy / Economics / Re: New 200,000 sq ft house: 5 BTC on: February 11, 2013, 10:05:34 PM
200,000 sq ft house?  Are those even a thing?
It's not that big, really, when converted to a metric measurement. About the size of three football fields.
1015  Economy / Economics / Re: How could wages in Bitcoin work? on: February 11, 2013, 09:38:39 PM
In our current inflationary system, the bulk of the power is granted to the business owners. Owners are free to bully their employees, refuse to give wage increases, and attack unions.

And employees are free to leave and find a job elsewhere. The job isn't the employee's, it's given to them by the business owners.
The job is taken by the employees.

With a deflationary system, the power is reversed. The employees can choose to decline wage decreases if they do not consider them fair—leaving the owners to negotiate properly with the unions.

The employee can decide to decline a wage decrease, and the owners will just fire them. Especially if the business doesn't make enough money to afford them any more. The power is still will the one who owns the business, and gives the jobs.
The business can decide to decline a wage increase, and the employees will just leave.

Employees and owners are a symbiotic relationship. Neither can live without the other. The more dominant in the relationship depends on which one maintaining the status quo benefits (owners in inflationary economy, employees in deflationary one).
1016  Economy / Auctions / Re: Sell your Signature! on: February 11, 2013, 12:54:10 PM
Confirming receipt.
1017  Other / Off-topic / Re: If I had a bitcoin... on: February 11, 2013, 03:29:08 AM
I would buy myself the best mustard Bitcoin can buy.
1018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: February 11, 2013, 02:47:51 AM
The last ten days sported a record-high averaged price.

1. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.26
2. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 21.09
3. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 21.04
4. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 20.97
5. 2013-01-31 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 20.91
6. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.79
7. 2013-01-30 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.64
8. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-17 W. Avg: 20.43
9. 2011-06-02 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 20.41
10. 2013-01-29 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.28

Unless the price meanders below 21 USD, we are likely to break the record again tomorrow.

The last week is extremely close to the record:

1. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 23.38
2. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 22.62
3. 2013-02-04 through 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 21.86
4. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 21.42
5. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 21.41
6. 2013-02-03 through 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 21.41
7. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 21.31
8. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 21.30
9. 2013-02-02 through 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 20.78
10. 2013-02-01 through 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 20.56

The next two rungs will be harder to climb, however.

The last 8 days have had weighted averages above 20. This is a record-long amount of time spent this high; double the length of the June 2011 bubble.
1019  Economy / Economics / Re: How could wages in Bitcoin work? on: February 10, 2013, 09:14:55 PM
In our current inflationary system, the bulk of the power is granted to the business owners. Owners are free to bully their employees, refuse to give wage increases, and attack unions.

With a deflationary system, the power is reversed. The employees can choose to decline wage decreases if they do not consider them fair—leaving the owners to negotiate properly with the unions.

Paying wages in a deflationary system is more fair, not less so.
1020  Other / Meta / Re: Fix email validation! on: February 10, 2013, 01:11:26 AM
It works for me.

Ah, it supports the raw plus sign but throws up when quotes and spaces are involved. I guess this issue is closed.

Regardless, it seems like a terrible idea to verify email addresses. If this is to prevent SQL injection, I'm sure there are many other ways to do it.
Hmm? Email address can have spaces?

I'm not an expert on this, but AFAIK anything before the @ is good as long as @, ", and \ are backslash-escaped and spaces are between quotes. However, it is extremely rare for email addresses to have @ or \ in them.

"John Doe"@john.doe.com is a valid email address format though, so it makes little sense to reject it.
no, this is against the RFC

I've never personally had an email address like that, but I know people who did. Organizations in the day used quoted names as email addresses.

I guess even if the RFC bans it, people still use those addresses and they should not be banned.
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