Improperly formatted title.
Why do you insist the title be formatted correctly? What advantage does this postulate? |
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I see thanks...
This forum software seems a bit dated...? Maybe the mods should put together a donation fund towards the purchase of something better like IP.board ($175), because, no offense, it's light years ahead of this setup. (I have no affiliation with IP.Board etc...)
How does $70000 worth sound? |
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I am thinking of producing a few short-term forecasts for Bitcoin price, based on chodpada's now-private time series analysis. My goal is to produce a forecast that is more accurate than the null forecast, which I will explain below. To accomplish this, I seek to maintain several "indicators", each with a certain weight that varies based on how well the current situation coincides with a situation in the past. No experiment is tenable without a benchmark to compare to. The null forecast provides this benchmark. Effectively, the null forecast predicts that the daily average price for any day in the future will be exactly equal to the daily average for the last day in the time series. In other words, the null forecast predicts that the delta in daily average price will be exactly equal to zero. This is a simplified version of both arithmetic and geometric extrapolations of the time series, with linear growth of zero and logarithmic growth to the base of one. If a forecasting method performs better than the null forecast, then it has merit for future consideration. If even the null forecast outperforms a forecasting method, then there are serious concerns with the method and it is likely of little use. As part of this process, I am employing public opinion. This is to determine the indicators likely to impact changes in price. I have obtained several indicators and their theoretical effects on price, but many of them are likely red herrings. Because the experts in the Speculation board use indicators all the time, I believe that this public consultation will improve results. - Money supply. Bitcoin money supply inflation is relatively easy to predict with reasonable accuracy. In theory, with money supply inflation comes decreased price. This indicator has performed terribly in hindcasts—the fastest rates of money supply inflation seem counterintuitively to correlate with price increases, not decreases.
- Time. Bitcoin seems to gain value over time, when averaged in the long-term. This indicator, if modelled properly, will likely be one of the heaviest-weighted.
- Momentum (a.k.a. trend). In Bitcoin's history, momentum, especially upwards, has been a double-edged sword. Although an high upwards momentum usually implies price gains, on certain occasions they have implied unprecedented price losses.
- Moving Averages. When possible, commodities tend to return to the moving average as part of a corrections cycle.
- High/Low. Even when forecasting on a daily scale, intraday events are not to be ignored. The highs/lows of the recent time series could imply reversals or continuations in trend.
- Volume. Higher volumes seem to counterintuitively imply more change.
- Delta volume. If volume is decreasing, it may seem that a reversal is underway. If volume increases, the trend may continue for a while yet.
Any thoughts on these example indicators? Any other indicators that could possibly be useful? |
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Motonis is great, he seems to understand what it is all about!
Too bad nobody can spell his name. |
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Anyone want to speculate on why the price of bitcoin has been trending up, what seems to me to be sharply, over the last week? Did I miss a bit of news that made bitcoin much more valuable?
Probably another empty rise, like Bitcoin has done in the past. It seems that there is a large lag between an improvement in fundamentals and its reflection in Bitcoin's price. Remember June 2011? The fundamentals are far better now than then, yet the price remains lower. |
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The problem is these morons actually seem to think inflation IS growth >_< I'm not sure they know the difference.
Growth causes inflation, not the other way around! Correlation doesn't imply causation, and this is a prime example. |
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A normal thread on Bitcointalk....  This thread( bubbles = foregoing participants)  Fail... broken links  No insult needed. Of course, it's sad how this thread is more civil than the average BitcoinTalk thread. |
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The age group for highest likelihood of Bitcoin adoption is off by 7-10 years I would suggest 13-33 or even 10-30 with a peak around 20. A teenager is way more likely to adopt Bitcoin than someone in their late 30's. In fact teens and tweens are a huge market for Bitcoin because they cannot get a Credit Card and are huge consumers of online content and services.
On a related note I would expect those in their late 50's, 60's and early 70's (Baby Boomers) to be a lot more receptive to Bitcoin than those in their 40's or even late 30's. Let us not forget that someone who turned 20 in 1969 (summer of love, Woodstock) will turn 64 in 2013. The baby boomer generation shook the establishment to its very core in their day, their children one the other hand are notoriously conservative and status quo by contrast. Let us not forget that teenagers always rebel against their parents, not their grandparents. The grandparents more often than not see the teenage rebellion as payback to the parents.
See: Zhoutong (17 when he started Bitcoinica) and Phinnaeus Gage (55 when he joined the forums). |
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Current diff is 2968775. I don't think spiccioli ever said 3.4 million, that was probably your mistake.
No, he was right before. The 'estimate' link above had it around 3.7m, and then down to 3.4 when I looked again. Seems to be back down to 2.9m where it belongs. That's my point. Spiccioli seems to be correct here. Crazyates must have gotten some numbers mixed up. |
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Yeah, probably a big fluke...  spiccioli Current diff is ~3.44 million. Estimated next diff is ~3.39 million. Bitcoin Charts don't show anything out of the ordinary. I think it'll be a lil more obvious than this when ASICs do hit. sure crazyates, but a couple hours ago it was at 3.87 million from current 2.9 million... spiccioli Wait, what? You trying to say the current diff was 2.9 million a couple hours ago, and now it's 3.4 million? The current diff was calculated on the 23rd. Current diff is 2968775. I don't think spiccioli ever said 3.4 million, that was probably your mistake. |
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Is this a honeypot project? If so, you're quite successful already...
what is honeypot project might i ask? He's using the thread to catch scammers before they bite him in another deal. Effectively, he is setting out a honeypot to catch the flies before they cause harm. |
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Hi! Just wondering if anyone is noticing a slight difference in bitcoins mined today? My rigs seem to be bet slightly less productive today.
Difficulty changes at predictable intervals. The next change will occur in approximately a decade (10 days). |
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Bloomberg's Chart of the Day:  Going UP UP UP! Does your nickname stand for "Bitcoin Central Bank"?  |
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It's not just down. It's been replaced by some little squigly line html app or something. I have no idea. Man, the plot is straight out of a mystery novel. It's almost as if they are trying to incite drama and mystery! |
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I can't speak for the entire Bitcoin community here, but I would certainly buy music for BTC. I don't think pay-per-track is dead; so long as DRM is not involved I believe it to be an effective model. After all, just because you can shoplift from Wal-Mart doesn't mean you shouldn't purchase items from there.
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What you should order  There's only one company even taking orders, so the question is kinda moot. Thanks. That falls under the third sentence of my original post Here are the companies that originally planned to sell ASIC: Avalon: Released & Shipped, but not taking orders. bASIC: Cancelled & Refund in progress. BFL: Planning on release and taking new orders. Deepbit: Cancelled & Refund in progress. |
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By posting here I am insulting myself and everyone else automatically.
Smartass. |
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Bump. This would be a trivial and very useful addition at no cost.
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As little as 5 bitcents is, I see no reason to pay to volunteer. The only sane reason to pay here would be if you are promoting a product—which is exactly what the wiki needs less of.
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- Comfortable with taking unusually large risks
- Open to patiently listening/reading about unpopular ideas
 Has there ever been a poll done on "Are you male or female?" Would love to know an actual calculation on that! Yes. See my sig for one of them. Nice! My girlfriend is not on these forums, but she's an active Bitcoin user... perhaps these results have a bias as the polling is done on a forum, correlating more with the profile of internet-forum users than with Bitcoin users. As a whole, I would imagine few tech forums have women on them, even if the technology itself is super popular and widely used. Say, like a forum for Windows-users. Lot's of women use Windows OS, but not very many will join a forum about it hahaha. Then again, perhaps I just have a bias because she's my girlfriend...  Did you refer her, or vice versa? Or did you both know about it beforehand? |
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